EP36's Tennis Elbow

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 01:04 PM

Indian Wells, Saturday March 10th

WTA: Tsurenko +140
The Ukrainian is up against Schiavone who just has not looked right for most of this season. Considering Tsurenko beat Schiavone down on her preferred surface of clay, there should be some good confidence here for the underdog. Schivaone is 0 for her last 3 on outdoor hard courts and is just a shade above .500 lifetime at Indian Wells. Tsurenko has the advantage of running through qualis this week and scoring a gritty win over Peer in the opening round. Tsurenko isn't going to wow anyone, but she works hard and in a game where confidence breeds success - she actually seems to have the edge there right now.

ATP: Mahut +130
Mahut dominated Pospisil in his opener, flashing that solid serve that the Frenchman is known for when his game is on. He draws Monaco here in a winnable match. Monaco was last seen on clay retiring in Acapulco because of dehydration. Indian Wells won't present the same heat and humidity as Acapulco, so he should be fine fitness wise. Monaco is an interesting cat on hard courts. He's under .500 lifetime on outdoor hard courts, but we've seen him spring a good run of results from time-to-time like last year's US Open [4th round]. When you look at his results over the last year on this surface though, he has issues with good servers more often than not. Mahut is definitely capable and in that category. The surface here might not be quite as quick as Mahut would prefer, but he looks comfortable enough. Monaco had one big run here in 2010, but otherwise has seen mostly poor results. If Mahut brings his A grade serve, I think he rates a shot to KO Monaco.

**showtiime** · 03-10-12, 02:22 PM

tomic just broke up with his GF I think the same day as the match, apparently bad split - guess his mind was elsewhere for a reason this time.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 04:09 PM

LoL. Whatever, Tomic is too much of a self centered toolbag is what I got from most of the stories about their breakup and everything I have ever read about the kid. I mean let's just go back to the police standoff in Australia in January ... guy is still an immature douche.

Gasquet hanging the match to Ramos today. Good work Gascan.

**MUHerd37** · 03-10-12, 04:10 PM

Gasquet is such a douche. Serving for the match and get broken. Broken his next serve too and loses the set 5-7. Then gets broken on his first serve int he 3rd. What a f\*g.

**showtiime** · 03-10-12, 04:24 PM

Oh trust me, I think he's a massive douche, he was worse when he was younger so thats saying something, anyone that drives an orange car is a tool.

On Tsurenko too.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 04:45 PM

Yeah it's funny, says he's moving to France where his training team is located so he doesn't have to worry about the cops. Maybe grow up and you don't have to worry about them in the first place idiot.

That chick was too hot for him any way.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 04:52 PM

Already hoping Tsurenko retires. Sheesh.

**showtiime** · 03-10-12, 05:26 PM

Yikes.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 05:36 PM

Well barring an OT miracle, 2nd halves drop to 2-1. Rivers prop hits though which feels good since it was higher chalk to pay. He's got 17.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 05:38 PM

Heh I am mixing my threads up again. Tsurenko was just awful. Hoping Mahut can push to a 3rd set at least.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 06:20 PM

And I'm on the wrong dogs again. Thought hard aboung Ginepri today, but no .....

Think I should just stick to parlays. Seems to be about all I am good for.

**csavoia** · 03-10-12, 07:00 PM

get back on the horse again EP

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 07:19 PM

Trying one more. A fade of the renamed Nadezda Petrova who has been even worse than Nadia. She has been absolutely dismantled in her last two matches, both were on indoor hard courts - but against players when she was at her best that she would have beaten. Getting this at about 30-35 cents better than market value too with Bovada not reacting to line movement.

WTA Indian Wells: Davis +165

**crblahblah** · 03-10-12, 09:21 PM

Tailed on Davis play, liked it too. She just can't hold serve that well and missed out on a break to tie this set up. Now, the 2nd break is coming, as it usually does in WTA when they miss out on one. I really wish I had access to live betting. The flow of women's tennis is incredibly easy to follow and take advantage of. Too bad I'm blocked out of all the good Euro books.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 09:31 PM

I should have just avoided it. Was another that the TI crew was on 60% on Davis.

**STAY STRONG** · 03-10-12, 09:46 PM

Is Na Li a lock against Zheng tomorrow?

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 10:28 PM

I don't think the word lock goes with WTA picks. Li is better overall and Zheng has been in a funk since Melbourne, but this is a tough match. I'd probably take Zheng + the games personally. As far as moneylines ... if you use Li, I'd use it in a parlay with someone else. -235ish on her is not the kind of chalk I would lay.

**crblahblah** · 03-10-12, 10:41 PM

I'd tread lightly on Li. I was on her big yesterday and had to sweat out a 3-set dogfight. Every single service game was a struggle and she held the majority to 30-40. It could have been rust from the injury retirement in Paris but she scares me to back her until she shows form.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 11:49 PM

Upset watch for Nishikori early in this tournament. He chose to play on clay the last couple of weeks and doesn't have much of a track record at Indian Wells.

But did I play it? Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

**MUHerd37** · 03-11-12, 12:31 AM

Say goodbye to Murray. Guy just cracked at the end of the 1st set and lost it. Guy is fukking mental!

**MUHerd37** · 03-11-12, 12:39 AM

Murray broken in the very first game of the 2nd set. Peace out Murray!

**STAY STRONG** · 03-11-12, 01:00 AM

Thanks guys. Think I'll pass on her now.

**showtiime** · 03-11-12, 02:03 AM

Just had a lucky hit with 17-19 games play in the GGC/Murray match, it hit even though I obviously thought it would be a reserve scoreline

**beefcake** · 03-11-12, 06:42 AM

Wow, GG lopez was 40-1 at some books to win that match..

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-11-12, 12:12 PM

Murray, just f-ing terrible. Nice way to show up.

Don't know if I will play any of these, but feel plenty of dogs again today.

Bellucci +180 [Melzer]
Davydenko +135 [Monfils]
Haas +110 [Granollers]
Kuznetsova +400 [Azarenka]

**STAY STRONG** · 03-11-12, 04:38 PM

Thoughts on Ferrer today? Looking for a last leg to close out a parlay.

**MUHerd37** · 03-11-12, 05:58 PM

Bellucci got the dog win. Melzer didn't even put a fight.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-11-12, 05:58 PM

Bellucci, got that putz at +220. Lost out on Haas and Davydenko got cancelled because Monfeasel withdrew. Decided against Kuznetsova and Azarenka turned it on today and smoked her.

Didn't see any reason why Ferrer would lose today. One I am interested to see is Cilic-Nalandian. There's going to be a time when Cilic cashes as a big dog I think soon.

**face** · 03-12-12, 01:02 AM

Almagro has beaten Giraldo 3 times to none last two years, any reason to not put him in a parlay?

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-12-12, 05:19 AM

I'd be careful there. While I think Almagro is the better overall player and SHOULD win, the slower conditions in Indian Wells actually might help Giraldo a little more than Almagro who I think would thrive with a quicker court and his bigger serve.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-12-12, 05:33 AM

Indian Wells, Monday March 12th

Parlay: Isner + Harrison

Ramos -130

**face** · 03-12-12, 12:35 PM

thanks, decided against almagro

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-12-12, 01:53 PM

Man if you could know when Stosur was going to pull her brick shithouse routine, you'd be a millionaire. I almost always have her name pinned to the board to go against if she's playing someone worth a fart. Haven't been too sure about Petrova's game though, but she's rolling.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-12-12, 02:13 PM

Hunch/Stupid/Dartboard Pick

Ebden +440
Fish has nothing to defend in Indian Wells. Miami next week is the much more important event for him since he made the semis last year. Ebden isn't the superior player, but we've seen him take better players deep into third sets on this surface and he's also scored a couple nice scalps in the last year on outdoor hard courts. Fish could certainly make a run here if he plays well. It's likely Isner in the next round, but let's see where Fish is at right now since he still hasn't show a whole helluva lot in consistency this season.

**MUHerd37** · 03-12-12, 02:26 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Man if you could know when Stosur was going to pull her brick shithouse routine, you'd be a millionaire. I almost always have her name pinned to the board to go against if she's playing someone worth a fart. Haven't been too sure about Petrova's game though, but she's rolling.

I totally agree. I just don't get Stosur. I figure I should just bet against her every time I see her favored.