EP36's Tennis Elbow

**theplagy** · 03-06-12, 11:59 AM

grabbed it at -180,

good job my friend

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-06-12, 12:03 PM

Glad he won the tie break, did not want to be sweatin' out a damn third set. Decided on needed to get back on the horse this week with Indian Wells coming up, so decided to try some Challenger action first. Working on an Indian Wells preview as soon as they post a draw.

**beefcake** · 03-06-12, 03:58 PM

Was so tempted EP to fade Matosevic today but did not pull the trigger.Played 9 matches in Delray, had to fly across country with 1 day of rest only to qualify again..He won the 1st, but looks like now he is struggling a bit.if he wins this match he most likely will play Mello, might be a good opp.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-06-12, 04:38 PM

I see he won.

**beefcake** · 03-06-12, 09:12 PM

Wow, I saw the draw and I could for sure see Young come out of that pod and play Nadal.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-07-12, 10:45 AM

You must be smoking that good East Coast crack beef.

One shot Santiago today.

Santiago Challenger: Gensse +175

**beefcake** · 03-07-12, 10:53 AM

I knew my dealer must have laced it with something.. Hallucination drug? We shall see!

**blackbeSSt** · 03-07-12, 11:06 AM

EP you putting anything on futures for the Paribas Open?

**beefcake** · 03-07-12, 11:24 AM

I would think Murray at +550 looks good.Just beat the joker and would think if he played him in the semis then would be a good hedge price.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-07-12, 10:01 PM

From El Bloggo.

ATP Indian Wells

The so-called Mini Major hits the tour this week as the players descend on Indian Wells, CA for the BNP Paribas Open. This is the first Masters event of 2012. There was a time when the #1 seed used this tournament as their personal playground. However, in the past five years, the top seed has only won the tournament once. That was Rafael Nadal in 2009. Novak Djokovic is the defending champion. Both Djokovic and Nadal have sterling records here. Nadal has amassed a 31-6 mark at Indian Wells, while Djokovic stands at 22-4. Roger Federer isn't far behind in win percentage at this tournament with a 33-8 record. It should be noted that Federer has failed to make the final since 2006. Let's break the draw down, I'll separate it into four quarters with the Big Four marked as the leaders in their quarters.

Djokovic Quarter
The next highest ranked player in Djokovic's draw is 7th seeded Tomas Berdych who is on the opposite end of the quarter. For Djokovic, he'll get the 1st round bye and then face a qualifier. His first test would be in the 3rd round, potentially against Kevin Anderson. That could well be his toughest task to getting to the quarterfinals as Florian Mayer and Richard Gasquet are the other "names" in this portion of the draw. The Anderson match could be a good one, but I'm expecting Djokovic to advance there and head to the quarters with minimal hassle. The other half of the draw should be much more competitive with Berdych, Andy Roddick, Kei Nishikori and Nicolas Almagro all in as seeded players. Toss in a couple big servers like Ivo Karlovic and Sam Querrey and this portion of the draw could see its share of upsets. We could see Almagro vs. Querrey in the 2nd round. Querrey still seems less than his best as he returns from last year's injury, but Almagro could be ripe for an upset as he has played a heavy schedule and faded on his favored surface of clay this year. Nishikori could be one to watch in this portion of the draw as he will get Santiago Giraldo or Jack Sock first-up. That is going to be tricky even though it woul be a winnable match and then he could face Querrey or Almagro in the 3rd. A resurgent and perhaps confident Andy Roddick probably isn't excited about his draw that could pit him against Karlovic in his first match. Karlovic has to get past Kubot first. The good news is Roddick is 5-1 vs. Dr.Ivo, playing better in tie breakers to win many of those matches in the past. A win there likely sets up Roddick vs. Berdych in the 3rd round. Roddick generally has played well here, while Berdych has only made it to the 4th round twice in the last six years. Given Roddick's recent resurgence and his confidence booster against Federer on these courts, he could be a surprise.

Prediction: Djokovic should be keen to put his loss to Murray in Dubai behind him and his game seems suited to the Indian Wells' courts. He may have a tense match or two, but it's his quarter to take again. Upset watch for Nishikori early in this tournament. He chose to play on clay the last couple of weeks and doesn't have much of a track record at Indian Wells. Given Giraldo's improvement on hard courts, he could give the Japanese youngster a run. They played last October in Shanghai where Nishikori won a tough three setter. Also mark the first round match between Germans Matthias Bachinger and Phillip Kohlschreiber. Kohlschreiber is the better player still, but is so inconsistent that Bachinger could steal the opener.

Federer Quarter
Federer comes into one of his stomping grounds on a roll with two titles already in 2012. His draw though is a nightmare and his streak of failing to make finals here [2006] looks good to continue. He will likely run up against the power of Milos Raonic in round three. Should he survive there, he has Gael Monfils, Nikolay Davydenko and Gael Monfils all in his draw as potential road blocks to the quarterfinals. I think Federer in his current form makes it to the quarters, but don't discount him struggling some. In the top part of the quarter, David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro highlight the players to watch. Ferrer is on a massive roll with two clay court titles and his draw shapes up for him to run through a couple of trouble free rounds. He has Juan Ignacio Chela as the other seed in his immediate future, something that won't scare him much. Del Potro should cruise early before a potential third round match against Fernando Verdasco. Verdasco played some nice tennis in the clay court swing, but Del Potro is probably the second hottest player on-tour behind Federer and he'll be expected to face Ferrer in the 4th round. Delpo made the semis last year and the quarters in 2009 and looks hungry. Ferrer would be an intriguing match-up against Del Potro, but the surface favors Del Potro to be in the quarters. Anyone want Federer vs. Del Potro for the fourth time? I do.

Prediction: Federer and Del Potro should get another go in the quarterfinals and Del Potro dramatically improved his performance against Del Potro from Rotterdam to Dubai. Could the 4th time be the charm? Don't be surprised if it is. Upset watch for Verdasco early. As well as he played on clay, the surface switch to hard courts could send him back into flake mode. A 2nd round match against Stebe or Sweeting will not be easy. Also expect Chela to be out early. He has the seed in front of his name, but the surface is not his best and Istomin or Lu should make his stay at Indians Wells a short one. If you're looking for a dark horse, Raonic is a good place to start. He'll be disappointed with his loss in the Memphis final to Melzer, but when his serve is on - we know he can stick with anyone.

Murray Quarter
Murray should be buoyed by his run in Dubai where he had little previous success. Murray should be eager to wipe away last year's failure here in his opener to Donald Young also. Prior to that flameout, Murray had shown well at Indian Wells with a 15-6 mark all-time with a semifinals, quarterfinals and finals appearance in limited tries in this tournament. He has a nice draw in spite of the names you'll see littered in his bracket: Troicki, Simon and Wawrinka. Troicki could be up against it early with a potential 2nd rounder against Ryan Harrison. Simon and Wawrinka look to be a third round collision course where we can play who chokes first. As long as Murray is able to shake off the loss to Federer in Dubai, I see no reason he isn't at least to the quarters. On the bottom of this draw, it's a landmine of potential. Mardy Fish. John Isner. Julian Benneteau. All have the game to make a move in this draw. The problem has been consistency. Fish has had very little this season and he's tough not to fade right now. Isner has struggled to get deep in tournaments since he was annointed the second coming after his big win in Davis Cup play over Federer. His draw should be conducive to a deep run, but that's been the case for his last two tournaments without the results following in that mind set. Still, Isner's toughest match should be in the 3rd round against Monaco. Fish and Benneteau should battle it out for the spot opposite of Isner in the 4th round. This is a HUGE tournament for Fish in my opinion. He has not played well on-tour this year and could be in danger of a total free-fall if he loses early in this tournament. Fish made the final in 2008 in Indian Wells, but otherwise has been a candidate for early burnout. Tough to see him being relevant in this quarter.

Prediction: The Big Four should be represented in the semis with Murray from this quarter. I think he has the easiest draw of the top dogs to get there if he is focused. Upset watch for Mardy Fish. He has Seppi or Olivier Rochus in his first match and needs to be on-point early. I also would be less than shocked if Troicki, Wawrinka or Simon lost early. Isner has to be the "dark horse" in this quarter. His draw shapes up nice for a quarterfinal run, but will he take advantage?

Nadal Quarter
The return of Rafa should add plenty of intrigue to this quarter of the draw that also features Tsonga, Tipsarevic and Dolgpolov. As we laid out earlier, Rafa loves this tournament with a 31-6 mark at Indian Wells. His draw should set him up to have plenty of wiggle room if he needs to refind his form. A 2nd round match potentially against Falla and then the likes of Nieminen or or Granollers to make the 4th round. Two enigmatic players will be opposite of the consistent Nadal in this portion of the draw in Feliciano Lopez and Alexandr Dolgpolov. Dolgopolov could face Donald Young in a bettor's nightmare of a match in the 2nd round. Lopez is a candidate for an early exit with Chardy or Baghdatis due to face off against him in the 2nd round. As usual, Baghdatis will be a dangerous floater and I like him to make a little noise in this tournament with a better draw than he has seen in 2012. All-in-all, Nadal should be a cinch for the quarters perhaps taking out Dolgpolov or Baghdatis to get there. Up top, Tsonga will not have an easy time advancing deep. He has Llodra or Gulbis first-up and then maybe Radek Stepanek in the 3rd round. Tsonga's record at Indian Wells is 5-5 and he has never advanced past the 4th round. Don't expect Tsonga to do a ton this week. The bottom of this portion of the draw sees Tipsarevic and Marin Cilic as the seeds. Cilic is just getting back on-tour and won't see any favors as David Nalbandian potentially looms in round two. Tipsarevic faces either Tomic or Muller, so he too will need to be ready when he starts.

Prediction: Nadal is set up for another deep run at Indian Wells. He really shouldn't face a ton of resistance in getting to the quarters. Tsonga is certainly the talent in the other half to potentially oppose him, but Tsonga seems to still be playing down a notch. That could open up the other quarterfinal spot for Tipsarevic, but don't count out a surprise run by someone like Stepanek or even Cilic who should improve this tournament. Upset watch definitely for Lopez and Dolgpolov in their first matches.

Semifinalists: Djokovic, Del Potro, Murray, Nadal
Final: Nadal defeats Djokovic

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-07-12, 10:06 PM

Definitely like

Nadal +325
Federer +400
Del Potro +1650

The Federer one I would use simply as a hedge option as the tournament goes on. Firmly believe he will lose before the semis, but if he doesn't - then you've still got a nice future. Would be absolutely shocked if Fed or Delpo didn't make the semis out of that quarter.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-07-12, 11:43 PM

Indian Wells: March 8th
Parlay: Harrison + Falla +127
Dodig +175
Lu +175

Good match-ups for Harrison & Falla. Harrison is up against Cipolla who can spring an upset now and again, but with Harrison in reasonbly good form - he should advance if he serves well. Harrison also should have good memories from an unexpected 4th round run here in 2011. Falla goes up against L.Mayer who has been on clay for nearly a month. Considering the surface switch to where Mayer is 0 for his last 10, Falla even though not a great hard court guy - is a guy who should be able to gut it out in what could be a closer match for at least a set. Looking to split the dogs. Hanging a big favorite's tag on Dimitrov doesn't jive to me. Istomin has been playing well, but is still inconsistent at-best. Lu is in on a good roll with a Challenger title on the surface.

**gregm** · 03-08-12, 12:18 AM

Wow. Great job once again EP.

**freshguy222** · 03-08-12, 05:47 AM

great anaylsis as always.
some questions, why do you see del potro beating federer. i recognized that feds return game was totally off during rotterdam and especially dubai. do you think the conditions favor delpo here?
im a nadal fan and i would liek to see fed in the semis as delpotro is matchup nightmare with those flat strokes from both wings.
i agree with you that nadal will make the semis and if he can make the final and faces djokovic he will have the biggest chance for many months here as the conditions, granted its a hard court, but everything else favors nadal. i think that if nadal can beat djokovic in either of the tournaments in indian wells or miami (way bigger chance this week) he will regain so much confidence that he can dominate the clay court swing. i can see a lot of matchups on clay between rafa and the djoker especially if the draw is like this as muray cannot compete on clay yet and rafa has feds number on clay, although you have to consider other players (ferrer and delpo especially).
have you looked at the french open futures at pinnacle, to me it seems like theyre taking a side here, having nadal as the big favourite (+110) and djokovic (+130). it seems odd when you consider that this is the most probable final and djoker has doominated nadal even on clay.
also do you think djokovic was gassed last week, why would he play serve and volely so much against murray if he wasnt. it seemd like he was going for the winner nearly everytime.

any answers would be appreciated.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 06:29 AM

I think Del Potro showed great improvement from the beating he took via Federer in Rotterdam vs. what he showed in Dubai. Let's be honest, he choked in the tie break because he was in command and should have at least pushed to a third set. The fact that he didn't just mail it in though was good to see and I think the mental block a lot of people think he has against Federer isn't as large a factor now. Considering Federer's serve was nearly flawless in Dubai, I think Delpo showed pretty solid in that match. Any time you continue to get a shot at the same player over and over, the law of averages is bound to catch up when you're looking at players of a similar talent level.

I'm not sure what Djokovic's issue was in Dubai. I think perhaps he got a little lazy in between the Australian Open and Dubai and maybe didn't prepare as well as he should have. From reading some, it sounded like he was out enjoying life a little more in between tourneys and maybe not 100% focused on the tournament.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 09:47 AM

Also think if you need a parlay partner today, look to the Santiago Challenger and Bagnis @ -190.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 09:51 AM

In fact, I am going to switch up the parlay to Harrison + Bagnis @ +130

Still like Falla, but I had a little itch on my ball sack about that match when I was picking it, so maybe it was crabs. Maybe it was an upset looming.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 01:35 PM

Or I guess I can try the original parlay since Bagnis fukked that right up.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 01:43 PM

Crap my book had the Falla match listed today, not the case - so have to re-examine everything to begin with. Harrison will be one leg of the parlay still.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 02:18 PM

Alright, going with the similar storyline to Falla for the other choice opposite Harrison.

Parlay: Harrison + Haase [+105]
Haase draws Andujar who is a clay court specialist through and through. He's 7-23 on outdoor hard courts and has been playing mainly on clay the past weeks. Haase has not had a quick start to 2012, but his game is much more conducive to the hard surface than Andujar. He's got the big serve when it works and good ground strokes, it's consistency like many young players that is the key to his game. Andujar is 1-9 in his last ten on outdoor hard courts with that one win over Kunitsyn in the opening round in Melbourne this year. He's sprung a surprise or two - see Miami last year - but the surface switch here, Haase is the choice for me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 02:20 PM

Parlay is the only Indian Wells play today. The two dog choices were again falsely listed for today and are not taking place today. My fault for not checking the schedule better. Will stick with Dodig & Lu though when they do play.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 07:41 PM

Forgot how much fun it is to watch these clowns choke. Haase has blown break leads twice in the 3rd, lost his last one serving for the match @ love.

**BobW** · 03-08-12, 07:53 PM

Never bet on my countryman Haase. What a performance again...

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-08-12, 10:39 PM

Going to be a looooong year for him if he's losing on hard courts to Andujar.

**Fidel** · 03-08-12, 11:00 PM

Hey EP, any insight on Sweeting - Stebe tomorrow? Im thinking about going big on Ryan but Im looking for someone to talk me out of it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-09-12, 06:46 AM

I'm not a big fan of Sweeting. Said it many times, for a guy who is pretty tall [6'4"] - he doesn't offer very much in the way of consistent power. Both Sweeting & Stebe are fringe ATP guys still IMO and I expect you'll see them both playing some Challengers still this year. Sweeting has more experience on the surface, but I'm not sure the price is an indicator of how even this match could be. Everyone got real excited when Sweeting went up 2-0 on Ferrer in Australia, but since then the only guys he's beaten were James Blake in his first match in six months and Donald Young who is one of the biggest wastes of space on the planet. I could see taking him, but big ... I don't think I would.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-09-12, 07:11 AM

March 9th

Parlay: Baghdatis (Indian Wells) + Ito (Kyoto Challenger) [-115]
Baghdatis is up against Chardy who has been playing on clay since the Australian Open. Baghdatis has had some tough draws/luck - losing to Tsonga first-up in Dubai and retiring with a calf problem against Berdych back in Rotterdam. Baghdatis started the year running hot on hard courts, but has cooled. He did not play well on the surface in 2011, so redemption time needs to begin today. Ito draws fellow Japanese player Moriya who shocked Go Soeda this week. However, in four career meetings with Ito - all on today's carpeted surface - Moriya is 0-4 and has won just one set. Ito has had to work for his wins this week, but should find this a good match-up where he should enter with confidence against a familiar opponent.

ATP Indian Wells
Lu +175
Dodig +170

**Fidel** · 03-09-12, 10:58 AM

Thanks very much EP. The line movement scared me too. Im just gonna make a normal play here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-09-12, 05:38 PM

Baggy whips Chardy in straights, all on you Ito to complete that parlay son. Lu-Istomin match should be starting in the next 15 minutes. Let's go Lu!

**JNic** · 03-09-12, 06:43 PM

I'm on Lu also... lost the first set breaker 8-6. Not a good sign with Istomin's serve numbers

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-09-12, 06:45 PM

Yeah and considering he had a 4-2 lead and was on-serve - very disappointing, I'm expecting him to drop this next set 6-4 or 6-3 and that's that.

**crblahblah** · 03-09-12, 09:43 PM

Any thoughts on Darcis vs Young? Young has been incredibly disappointing this year and Darcis pulled out a few nice wins, but the line is incredibly close and Darcis is actually +money on the -1.5 spread. I'd lean Darcis but the number kind of puts me off being so close.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-09-12, 10:49 PM

Well the dogs were crap today, but the parlay hits.

On Young-Darcis, I'd be happier losing with Darcis than taking Young and hoping that mofo decides to play hard this week. People keep taking Young based on what they think he did in 2011 ... go back and look, the guy didn't do dick.

**face** · 03-09-12, 11:34 PM

ha, tomic got bageled in 3rd set, muler $. decided to fade tomic after his pathetic performance vs. isner. i think tomic might have ADD or ADHD or something

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-10-12, 12:57 AM

Tomic is a typical young player. He hasn't proven he can focus week to week and he hasn't really put forth a full year of tennis yet. This might be the 1st year where you can see how he responds to travel, etc. They were very calculated with him as a young player in not letting him play much outside Australia the past few years. I think he'll play better at Majors than he will at the smaller tournaments if only because he is used to playing some of them already.