EP36's Tennis Elbow

[showtiime]

cadantu in 3, youngin with confidence after her annihilation of lino.

Knew she would stay with her but didn't expect her to roll, takes the first set 6-2, cadantu handicap was ez

I hope you wrong man. There were soo many upsets in WTA today. Hoping greta arn wins this. Need her and ferrer to win to save my day after tipy screwed me.

Well my advice would be not to play so many quallies.
Let me guess you took old Arn yet you haven't seen either of them play? I'm guessing you made the bet based purely on price & ranking. I hope for your sake leather Greta somehow pulls this out in 3 as it's unlikely that I'll lose my play unless she bagels her but in reality if Cadantu holds on it would teach you a lesson by being buried for playing something based purely on ranking.

[crblahblah]

Have Candantu on ML and she just can't hold a serve this final set. She won't win this.

down 30-0 on return and Candantu comes back to break. Great resolve on her, just wish she could hold a serve (and there's a double fault).

Hold and a comeback break for Candantu. Need 1 more hold. I'm really impressed by her fortitude. A lot is Arn playing poorly at the end but to hang in there being down these last games of the match and coming back to win the games is great to watch.

Great win by Candantu. After I made the comment about holding a serve she held the last 2. Arn looked tired by the end hitting into the net or missing easy forehands way out. Candantu staved off a break in final game to win.

[showtiime]

cadantu in 3

Demonsta unlucky, schoolboy error!

[face]

cadantu beat babos in 2011, their head to head is 1-0 cadantu, was thinking of playing cadantu +170 just for that reason alone. i think cadantu seems pretty good, i don't know.

[EaglesPhan36]

Preview from the blog.

ATP Dubai
Surface: Outdoor Hard

The Big Four minus Rafael Nadal. That is the story line to follow this week in Dubai as we see the big boys together [mostly] for the first time in one tournament since the Australian Open. Djokovic is the top seed. Federer enters as the two, Murray the three and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as the four. Djokovic has owned this tournament and will be looking for his 4th straight title in Dubai.

Djokovic's quarter offers him little worry until the quarterfinals where he could face Janko Tipsarevic who is the other seed in this quarter. Djokovic should mow down Stebe in the opener and then faces Stakhovsky or a local wildcard in what appears to be another easy match-up. Down in Tipsarevic's portion of the draw, he gets Kunitsyn and then may find himself a tough go against Ivan Ljubicic. This quarter seems straight forward as Djokovic should cruise to the semifinals.

Andy Murray's quarter also features Tomas Berdych in what could be a little more competitive quarter. Murray opens with Berrer and then could face a resurgent Nikolay Davydenko in the 2nd round. Berdych opens against Benjamin Becker who will likely be gassed from a long week in Memphis. Lacko or Bubka would be next up. Murray hasn't done particularly well in this tournament in the past, never making it past the quarterfinals. That makes his potential 2nd rounder against Davydenko one to watch. That looks to be the only thing really standing in the way of Murray against Berdych in the quarterfinals.

Tsonga is featured in the next quarter as the #4 seed, but all eyes are likely to be on the 5th seed, Juan Martin Del Potro. Del Potro comes in off a title in Marseilles, but faces a double whammy with the quick turnaround and the talented Alexandr Dolgopolov in the 1st round. He will have a day off in between, but travel and adjusting to a new surface could really catch him here. Don't discount an upset right off the bat. Tsonga will also have to be on alert as he faces Marcos Baghdatis. Baghdatis retired a few weeks back in Rotterdam with an injured calf, but figures to be close to full health after ample rest. Tsonga will have to rebound from a disappointing loss to Del Potro in Marseille. The other first round matches here are Golubev vs. Marko Djokovic and Mannarino vs. Rosol. The winner of this quarter figures to come from those first round matches with Del Potro and Dolgopolov or Baghdatis and Tsonga. I think this quarter is ripe for a "suprise" or two.

Federer's quarter is set up very nicely for Federer to roll. He faces Llodra first-up. Llodra is not as effective on the outdoor hard courts and figures to be fatigued from his play in Marseille. The 2nd round would see Federer against Feliciano Lopez or Nicolas Mahut. Both could provide him a little stiffer test, but still are notches below Federer who is 29-4 all-time at this tournament. Mardy Fish is the other seed in this quarter and he'll have to shake off a poor performance in Marseille where has was taken out in his first match by a qualifier. Andreas Beck is the first rounder for Fish. Given Fish's up and down 2012, you'd have to say even Beck might have a chance depending on which version of Fish arrives in Dubai. Two guys familiar with each other will face off in the first round with Mikhail Youzhny and Richard Gasquet going toe-to-toe. Youzhny pulled out of Rotterdam with a foot problem, so his health is key here. Both guys have had some success here in the past, so they rate as dark horses and I would expect the first rounder winner between the two will be the quarterfinalist against Federer.

Semifinalists: Djokovic, Berdych, Dolgopolov, Federer
Final: Djokovic over Federer
Player to Watch: Alexandr Dolgpolov
Upset Watch: Dolgopolov over Del Potro or Gasquet over Fish [2nd Round]

[EaglesPhan36]

Suprisingly, I still have positive units won. Been a pretty ick two weeks.


Parlays: 22-17 [+5.47]
Totals: 1-5 [-5.05]
Dogs: 24-28 [+8.88]
Favorites: 6-11 [-7.50]
Challengers: 12-15 [-1.45]
Doubles: 2-0 [+2.10]
-----------------------
Overall Record: 67-76 [+1.28]

[MUHerd37]

Would Gasquet beating Fish really be an upset tho? Gasquet has been playing decent tennis and Fish has been terrible. Came up big in Davis Cup, but otherwise he's been bad this year. You said you feel like Fish is going downhill big time this year and it looks like you were right so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

It will be an upset according to Joe Public i.e. rankings watchers and price watchers ... maybe. We'll see if the books are wise to the demise of Mardy Fish or not. I'm just hoping if that is the match-up that Gasquet can get +130 or more.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dubai Futures

Djokovic +120
Federer +250

At this point, any time you can get Djokovic at plus money in futures, that seems like a bargain to me. I think Federer rates a good investment here based on a lovely draw and his success here as well. Tsonga MIGHT give him a ride if they meet in the semifinals, but I'm not sure that Tsonga even gets there.

[EaglesPhan36]

From the Blog, Part Deux.

ATP Delray Beach
Surface: Outdoor Hard

This is always an interesting tournament because it usual features the guys who don't feel like challenging their travel schedules and games against the big boys in Dubai. That is the case again with John Isner headlining as the top seed. This tournament marks the return of Marin Cilic who will be the #2 seed. He has been rehabbing from a knee injury suffered late last year. Viktor Troicki is the third seed and Andy Roddick rounds out the top four.

Isner was very disappointing in Memphis, falling to Jurgen Melzer in the quarterfinals. He looks out of sorts and will have to show something extra this week as expectations are high on him now and he needs to respond to the pressure each tournament. His draw isn't simple. He has Jesse Levine to open. Second up could be Ryan Sweeting or Donald Young. On the other side of the quarter, Bernard Tomic kicks off against Tommy Haas. Melzer will meet a qualifier to open. The quali pool is low on talent, so even on short rest, Melzer should be in decent shape. Tomic is another guy who has to show he's got the consistency to grind through these smaller tournaments. Haas isn't an easy draw nor is Melzer potentially in the 2nd round. Tomic looks like he could be in for another early exit. Isner has only played this tournament twice and he was upset in the 1st round last year. I think his recent suspect play plus Melzer's resurgent week in Memphis along with a lot of talent here makes this quarter pretty open. Isner at his best would take this field, but I don't think he's at his best.

Andy Roddick leads the second quarter and has 7th seeded Kevin Anderson on the other side to contend with. Roddick's free fall could continue in Florida as he's paired up against Phillipp Petzschner in his opener and would face Matthew Ebden or Denis Istomin in round two. On the bottom of the quarter, Anderson gets a qualifier to open. The other first round match-up is Garcia-Lopez and Malisse. Anderson has a workable draw to make a run again, but he disappointed last week with an early exit in Memphis in a similar set-up. With Roddick's health/mental state very questionable, this quarter as well seems ripe for some upsets. I'll go back to the well with Anderson again as I think his game is suited to these courts and his draw is easier than the top half. The dark horse here could be Petzschner. I ragged on him for being a guy with one foot in the doubles circuit, but he's found some nice runs at this point in the last couple of years in Dubai and Miami. If he beats Roddick, confidence could push him through a couple rounds. Don't discount the enigma that is Deni Istomin either.

Troicki's quarter is full of what ifs beginning with the highest seed in Troicki himself. He has Steve Darcis first-up, a winnable match, but no gimme. Gulbis and Falla are the other first rounder in that part of the quarter. The outdoor courts could give Falla a boost as he's proven a tough competitor on outdoor surfaces recently. Up top, Bogomolov is the seed. I've made my points about Bogomolov known at every turn. I think he shot his wad last year in his surprise rise and I think he's going to level off as he's already begun to do. He gets a qualifier first-up, so maybe he can get a win. Ivo Karlovic looms after that and that should be a quick end to Bogomolov's stay in Delray Beach. The good doctor made the final here in 2010 and this quarter looks like he could make some noise if Troicki falters. Don't be surprised if the doctor "is in" the semifinals.

I absolutely love the bottom quarter that features Marin Cilic as the 2nd seed, Kohlschreiber as the #5 and is littered with plenty of talent. Cilic opens against Nieminen and could be one and done as a result. Dudi Sela plays youngster Denis Kudla in the other first round match-up on bottom. That should be a good match and Kudla has some confidence right now. I could definitely see an upset there. Up top, Kohlschreiber gets the gritty Olivier Rochus first. Ivan Dodig gets Matthias Bachinger in the other first rounder. Rochus and Kohlscheiber have already met twice this season, splitting those two meetings. Kohlschreiber won on an indoor surface, Rochus on an outdoor court in Auckland. Rochus has been tough as nails this year, don't count him out of pulling another upset and getting through this quarter. I think it would be a bit much to expect Cilic to be sharp enough to get it together quick here, especially in light of who he opens with. Still, it would be a nice story if he could make a run.

Semifinalists: Melzer, Anderson, Karlovic, Rochus
Final: Karlovic over Anderson
Player to Watch: Marin Cilic
Upset Watch: Rochus over Kohlschreiber, Haas over Tomic or Petzschner over Roddick

[EaglesPhan36]

Delray Beach Futures

Karlovic +1400Anderson +1600I think this is a stunning price for a guy who could roll right through the draw in Karlovic. Considering he is at this price and the top seed in the quarter, Troicki is at +1200, the bookies seem to think that he might rate just a good a shot at making a run. I like Anderson's draw enough to give him a look at the long price too. Isner is the short favorite at +325. Considering his poor form in Memphis and a tougher draw, I don't think he's worth the roll this week.

[Nikigreat]

I have a feeling on Troicki in Delray. It will probably have the great obstacle of Karlovic, but if he overtakes that I see him in the final. So take both Ivo and Viktor should be a good idea.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't trust Troicki for shit. Guy has so much talent and consistently falls flat. I personally don't think he'll make it past round two. I think between the two prices, Karlovic slightly higher makes more sense to me at least because I think he's got easier early matches.

[BobW]

Dubai Futures

Djokovic +120
Federer +250

At this point, any time you can get Djokovic at plus money in futures, that seems like a bargain to me. I think Federer rates a good investment here based on a lovely draw and his success here as well. Tsonga MIGHT give him a ride if they meet in the semifinals, but I'm not sure that Tsonga even gets there.

Novak or Marco?

[showtiime]

Novak or Marco?

Made me chuckle.

[Shifty107]

Any thoughts on Sweeting over young tomorrow EP? I can get him at +115 and think there is value there.

[crblahblah]

Good luck this week, EP. Thanks for the insights throughout.

[EaglesPhan36]

Any thoughts on Sweeting over young tomorrow EP? I can get him at +115 and think there is value there.

I think going with the dog is the best way to go. Pretty much a toss-up. Plus for Sweeting is he played well at Delray last year, but he also had the benefit of playing qualis last year.

[EaglesPhan36]

Monday, February 27th

Cherbourg Challenger: de Veigy -125
The match-up between de Veigy and Mertens looks pretty even, but I'm going with the home standing Frenchman in this one. If you look back a couple tournaments on this surface, de Veigy scored two scalps that stand out: Sijsling & Olivetti. Sijsling has been one of the in-form Challenger level players early this season and Olivetti earned himself some notoriety with his run last week in Marseille. Mertens has more experience on the surface, but de Veigy looks to me to be a pretty solid competitor on the surface based on recent results in the past year. Think it is important for him to start fast.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Delray Beach: Kudla +160
Kudla gets Sela. Sela is a gritty competitor, but he's just 1-4 since a quarterfinal run in Chennai. Kudla remains the under-the-radar youngster in American tennis that gets buried behind the Jack Socks, Ryan Harrisons, etc. Queitly though he's piecing together some decent wins. He beat Sock in San Jose and narrowly lost to Roddick in that same tournament. Sela has proven to be a solid player on outdoor hard courts over the years, but he's hardly a "scary" type of player for Kudla to go up against. Kudla is going to run hot and cold like any young player. Last week, he ran cold in qualis in Memphis after beating Kamke - he was crushed by Kendrick. He's got the talent though, so I'm giving him a spin today in a winnable match if he brings focus and discipline.

[tevari]

Don't bet Kudla....come on mang!

[EaglesPhan36]

Your parlay shall give yo' insides tremors today.

[tevari]

much more fearful of ebden than i am kudla, but i still think both fall flat on their face today.

[EaglesPhan36]

My fall back into negative territory is final complete. I should be back on those runs where you can make a fortune fading me. Don't be a fool.

[EaglesPhan36]

This might complete the trifecta for the day, get on the opposite.

ATP Acapulco: L.Mayer -113
I was not surprised that Mayer flopped in Buenos Aires after a nice run in Sao Paulo as he seems to be still looking for his best form. He gets Andujar today who when he's on, can be one of the better dirt ballers out there. The problem is, he hasn't been on yet and looking at past results - it looks like his switch doesn't flip until late March or April. I'll take a shot with Mayer here. Both guys have great ability on this surface when dialed in and he's my pick of the two to be connected today.

[soonerstud7804]

ebden too upset

My fall back into negative territory is final complete. I should be back on those runs where you can make a fortune fading me. Don't be a fool.

what do you think of ebden upsetting istom, I know he's been running good with one final appear this year but the aussie has some better quality wins over the past couple years too me.. maybe not...gonna go with the upset.

[Shifty107]

This might complete the trifecta for the day, get on the opposite.

ATP Acapulco: L.Mayer -113
I was not surprised that Mayer flopped in Buenos Aires after a nice run in Sao Paulo as he seems to be still looking for his best form. He gets Andujar today who when he's on, can be one of the better dirt ballers out there. The problem is, he hasn't been on yet and looking at past results - it looks like his switch doesn't flip until late March or April. I'll take a shot with Mayer here. Both guys have great ability on this surface when dialed in and he's my pick of the two to be connected today.

On mayer as well to complete a 4 leg parlay. Hope it hits for both of us EP.

And thanks for the info on the sweeting match. I had already made a decent play on sweeting but appreciate the info none the less.

Good luck if you play any CBB as well EP. Ithink Im gonna take the Hoyas first half and game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Donald Young back into his usual "I am an abortion to the game of tennis" mode. 6-1, 6-1 loss. Go back to playing Challengers.

[MrGambler]

This might complete the trifecta for the day, get on the opposite.

ATP Acapulco: L.Mayer -113
I was not surprised that Mayer flopped in Buenos Aires after a nice run in Sao Paulo as he seems to be still looking for his best form. He gets Andujar today who when he's on, can be one of the better dirt ballers out there. The problem is, he hasn't been on yet and looking at past results - it looks like his switch doesn't flip until late March or April. I'll take a shot with Mayer here. Both guys have great ability on this surface when dialed in and he's my pick of the two to be connected today.

EP - i might be wrong but isnt it F. Mayer playing not L.Mayer....at least my bookie has F.Mayer???

Edit: Sorry F.Mayer is playing Bagnis

[EaglesPhan36]

I am terrible.


Continued success fading me.

[tevari]

andujar is awful. bad job by mayer here. i think you still have a shot....andujar usually has nerves closing matches out.

[Shifty107]

Mayer shitting the bed

[MrGambler]

L. Mayer

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlays: 22-17 [+5.47]
Totals: 1-5 [-5.05]
Dogs: 24-29 [+7.88]
Favorites: 6-12 [-8.63]
Challengers: 12-16 [-2.70]
Doubles: 2-0 [+2.10]
-----------------------
Overall Record: 67-79 [-0.93]

[EaglesPhan36]

Just for fun, I am going to fade myself. Probably won't work either.


ATP Acapulco: Bellucci +105