Yep, they do have similar games for sure. I think +140 is a generous price, but there are better plays on the board IMO. I never forgave Russell after a horrific choke job against D.Young last year.
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Meanwhile, Birnerova had multipe set points all for naught. Serving for the first set @ 5-4 but I'm fairly certain she will get broken here.Comment -
Well there we go. Simple parlay. Simple cashes.Comment -
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Challengers ...
You guys discuss Challenger events here also?Comment -
Yeah. Check out Ted's thread, that guy has a great run going.Comment -
ATP MIAMI
Surface: Outdoor Hard
Defending Champion: Djokovic
In South Florida this week, the intrigue of the ATP Tour ramps up in Miami. Novak Djokovic's loss to John Isner last week and successive losses in semifinals of his last tournaments now gives others some ray of hope. No longer should we automatically pencil Djokovic's name in on a trophy or in the final for that matter. We knew there would be some evening of the playing field in 2012. It was simply impossible for Djokovic to repeat last year's once in a lifetime run. Still, he's looked a bit more mortal from match to match this year. Also this week, Vaya Con Dios Fernando Gonzalez. Gonzalez ends ends his 13 year career this week in Miami. Here's hoping you'll stick around for a couple rounds.
DJOKOVIC QUARTER
Djokovic is the top seed. David Ferrer leads the bottom of this quarter as the #5 seed. In Djokovic's portion of the draw, Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet and Viktor Troicki ramble in as seeds. Floaters include Baghdatis who once again gets a rough draw by matched with Djokovic in a potential 2nd round match if he survives Leonardo Mayer in his opener. I see few issues with Djokovic making the quarters. Even down a notch, the rest of the field lacks the consistency needed to beat him. In Ferrer's portion of the draw, he'll face stiff challenges with Del Potro looming. Ferrer could face Tomic in the 2nd round after a bye or Stakhovsky. Benneteau, Becker or Rochus would be waiting after that. It's not a scary proposition to think Ferrer should work his way into the quarters rather easily. He should be eager to make up for being saddled with the mystery virus in Indian Wells last week. Del Potro will try to shake off another loss to Roger Federer and look for another strong showing. His 1st match could be tricky against Karlovic or Kubot, but one he should survive. Cilic is in the other segment here and he'll get a bye before taking on Levine or Kunitsyn. Cilic got some good match play under his belt at the Dallas Challenger last week and he seems to be working his way back to a decent level. I don't think he's going to be nearly good enough to knock Del Potro from making it to a 4th round clash against Ferrer.
Prediction: Djokovic has an easy route until the quarterfinals which should give him an opportunity to make another semifinal. The Del Potro-Ferrer 4th round match could be one of the best of the tournament. Upset Alert early for the other seeds here with Lopez, Gasquet and Troicki all looking vulnerable from week to week. Troicki has been beat in his opener in his last two tournaments, while Lopez has been beaten in his first match in two of his last three. Gasquet has lost in the 1st round in Miami in four of his six entries into this tournament. Dark Horse: Cilic. I don't think he's ready to make a deep, deep run but his 3rd round clash with Del Potro could yield a lot as far as where he is at right now.
FEDERER QUARTER
The hottest player on the planet right now without a doubt is Roger Federer. He's 40-10 in Miami and could break a five year title drought here this week if all goes according to plan. His toughest match on the way to the quarters could be his opener if Ryan Harrison advances. After that, Roddick and perhaps Monfils are the only thing in his way to the quarters. Tough to see any of them knocking him off his current perch. Monfils should make his return after injury and illness. He'll be tested right away by Bubka or Gulbis. That match [Bubka-Gulbis] could be a good serve-a-thon. Nieminen and Lu join seeds Monaco and Roddick in this portion of the quarter. I wouldn't be surprised given Monfils lay off that we see a suprise 4th round opponent for Federer. On the bottom of the quarter, Mardy Fish leads the seeds along with Almagro, Verdasco and K.Anderson. Fish's 2012 has been pretty miserable and he's not going to have it any easier this week. His first match is either against an in-form Frank Dancevic or Jeremy Chardy. Fish should nab the win there, but nothing is certain given his form right now. Almagro had a nice run at Indian Wells and will look to add to his hard court resume this week. It could be Donald Young first-up for him, but Young has to get a win over Goffin first. The marquee first rounder in this portion of the draw looks to be Querrey vs. Ebden. Ebden had a super 4th round run in Indian Wells, while Querrey lost ot to Almagro early. Anderson awaits the winner. I again do not see Fish being the guy to make it to the quarters. Given Almagro's draw and good form, he could be a good shot.
Prediction: It seems unlikely that Federer will fail to reach the semifinals. His draw shapes up very nicely and could afford him some quicker matches and rest. Upset Alert for Monfils in his opener simply due to a lack of match play. Also don't be surprised if Juan Monaco falters in his first match again this week against either Lu or Nieminen. Dark Horse: Almagro. If Fish falls, he's there to pick up the pieces.
MURRAY QUARTER
Andy Murray's loss at Indian Wells was absolutely miserable and he now has to regroup. Miami may not be a good place to do that though as he has lost his first match in his last two entries into this tournament. His first match would be against Falla or Istomin. Given Istomin's penchant for running hot and cold, Murray could be in trouble if that is the match-up. Raonic is the seed opposite him in this portion of the draw. Raonic should chew up Sela or Clement to get into the 3rd round. If Murray is out, Raonic could slide into the 4th round. The other half features Simon and Melzer as the seeds. Haase, Seppi, Matosevic and Bautista-Agut are the other performers. It's tough to see anyone from this segment making a lot of noise. Up top in this draw is Tomas Berdych along with Tipsarevic and Dolgopolov. The first rounder that all eyes will be on will be Mahut and Fernandog Gonzalez. I think it's a winnable one for Gonzo. Chela is a "seed" in number in this portion of the draw and could go against Dimitrov or Kukushkin. Upset alert. Which Dolgpolov do we get this week? He looked okay for a couple rounds in Indian Wells and played decent here last year when he beat Tsonga. He could be a surprise this week. Tipsarevic could potentially go up against Nalbandian again in his first match. Nalbandian beat him in three sets last week in Indian Wells. This quarter looks to me as if it could produce some upsets.
Prediction: I'm going to say Murray's struggles continue this week and someone else slips in as a semifinalist. Berdych could be a good bet as he's made the quarters and the final in the last two years. Upset alert for Chela and Tipsarevic. One of them should be sent packing in their first match. Melzer will also need to be weary of Haase or Matosevic. If you're looking for a dark horse, I'll bite and say Dolgpolov.
NADAL QUARTER
Nadal has made at least the quarterfinals in Miami in five straight tries. Given his draw, a sixth straight trip seems likely. Nishikori is the best seed in this bottom portion of the draw with Nadal, but he's been out of sorts lately. Granollers and Stepanek are the other seeded players which should tell you how weak this draw is for Nadal. Some good first rounders with Sweeting against Lacko and Rufin against Haas. I just don't see Nadal being pressured much in the early going. On the top part of the draw, it should be much livelier with Isner and Tsonga leading the way. It will be interesting to see how Isner responds after reaching the Indian Wells final. His first match will come against either James Blake or Nikolay Davydenko. That is an interesting first rounder. Can't trust Blake's knee to be completely there, but would you trust Davydenko either? Petzschner and Dodig face off in another first rounder with the winner getting a date with Florian Mayer. With Mayer losing to Andujar last week in Indian Wells, I like the winner of that one to send him home early. Up top, Tsonga gets either Roger-Vasselin or Malisse to start. Tsonga choked large against Nalbandian in the 4th round last week in Indian Wells and continues to just sleepwalk through matches. He's got an 8-5 mark in Miami and should be in the third round against Kohlschreiber or maybe Bellucci. There is no reason for Tsonga not to zombie his way to the 4th round where Isner is likely to be waiting. Either could be a tough match for Nadal in the quarters.
Prediction: I like Isner or Tsonga to get through in this quarter. Nadal looked a little lethargic last week and Miami has sprung its share of surprises in the past. Upset alert for Mayer as previously mentioned and Kohlschreiber who is 1-7 all-time in this tournament.
Semifinalists: Djokovic, Federer, Berdych, Isner
Final: Federer over BerdychComment -
lol that you cried to a moderatorComment -
Two tries today in Miami.
Gonzalez +150
Andujar +170
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Two injury notes I came across when researching for the Miami preview that might help:
Petzschner [wrist]
On his Twitter account, he talked about a wrist injury that has hampered him since February. Says surgery was not needed, but that shows how troublesome the injury was at some point. Not sure if it effects him at all here and you'd think he has some confidence in it by being here after several weeks off. Still, something to watch as he is a short favorite over Dodig who I don't fancy here to begin with, but the injury could bare some watching.
Tommy Haas [unknown]
Haas unexpectedly withdrew from the Dallas Challenger before a scheduled semifinal against Dancevic. "You have to be at 100 per cent to play at this level, I'm at not more than 20 right now." That sounds discouraging. Further research found it to be a back problem. His back locked up on him in warm-ups that day. He gets Rufin who came through qualis. Again, it's unknown if the back will continue to be an issue but at his high price - exercise caution on Haas.
Good luck this week.Comment -
Thx for the info. 14-1 tips on Rufin on TI. I may make a play in hopes Haas retires.Comment -
Yeah I think definitely if you play that angle, go with it at a one set or first ball book if you can.Comment -
y is this dude spamming ur thread?Comment -
Two tries today in Miami.
Gonzalez +150
Andujar +170
good thing you didn't join the challenge.... otherwise you would've gotten slaughteredComment -
The men's side has a lot of 50-50 looking lines/matches today. Only one I want to take a chance with:
ATP Miami: Lu +120
The shift back to outdoor hard courts has not been great for Nieminen and he's more of a .500 player on the surface. He had the virus floating around in Indian Wells, so his loss there could be excused. Still, outside of the tournament in Sydney early in the year, he hasn't been great on this surface. Lu has been doing more work on the Challenger circuit than the ATP level, but as far as skills - I don't see a large disparity here. Nieminen also talked about the humidity in Miami being a factor on his blog. Nieminen has dropped his opener two of the last three times in Miami.
WTA Miami: Jankovic +140
I know Barthel is getting lots of pub and rightfully so for her solid play in 2012, but this price feels like it's a knee jerk reaction to two things: Jankovic losing early in Indian Wells & Barthel pushing Azarenka to a third set tie break in the same tournament. JJ is used to coming into Miami with a bye and normally plays well for a few rounds here. She might suck it up again, but the price seems off and I'm willing to take a chance on plus money for someone with the experience of Jankovic.Comment -
Agree w/ Lu, GL.Comment -
Jankovic is back into lost cause mode. Wow.Comment -
What a shit performance by her. Also, why did I play Kubot? 3-0 lifetime H2H against Karlovic but the tables would turn eventually....
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- Starace put up a fight I am going to cash the +4.5 games and hopefully he can just break Harrison! +400 odds on this match is just ridiculous value. Next match I'm looking to bet is the Gulbis vs. Bubka match. Although many think Gulbis is having an out of form season hes lost to some tough opponents and he showed a little bit of promise in Delray Beach. This is a match that Gulbis absolutely must win against Bubka. I am going to be betting Gulbs here but I don't know if I should play the -3 games -1.5 sets or just lay the -180Comment -
Jelena. This is one of those rare times the line move was justified. I though it was just jet lag from malaysia and that long match in kuala lumpur that was her problems in Indian wells. I wish I could have seen this match, she won't be getting my money anytime soon. Barthel is really showing some impressive stuff here and at indian wells. She could have beat azarenka
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I really think today is one of the toughest days I can remember in the last few tournaments as far as how many matches either have astronomical favorites listed or are 50-50 coin flips ... even if you chose to go the parlay route today, I didn't see many that you wouldn't have to string together maybe five or six into a parlay to get a decent payout. Forgot about Querrey-Ebden. Overs or Ebden were what I had been thinking about.Comment -
Tough day for me so far, looking forward to some basketball tonight. who do you got tonight?Comment -
Split the dogs today for a small profit.Comment -
Friday, March 23rd
WTA Miami: V.Williams +130
I will absolutely take a try on Venus in one of her favorite/best tournaments. She's 19-5 all-time in Miami. Kvitova looked a little lost against McHale last week, which isn't a good sign heading into this match. This has the potential to be a statement type match for Venus to mark her return as someone of prominence on the WTA tour.
ATP Miami: Haase +170
Haase draws Melzer. It looks to me like Melzer may have shot his wad during the indoor swing. Since his unexpected Memphis title, he's 0-2 with losses to Smyczek and Bellucci on outdoor hard courts. Haase got a solid win over Matosevic to start here. He might need some improvement to win against Melzer, but the Austrian has a poor track record in Miami with losses in his first match of the tournament in five of his last seven trips. He's also just 4-11 in his last 15 on this surface.Comment -
Marrakech Challenger: Klizan -150
Had my finger waiting to click on submit and finally pressed it. This kid is in superb form having won the Rabat Challenger last week and continuing to win this week. He faces Hanescu and that in itself makes me puke. He's gone Slumdog this week trying to pick up a paycheck apparently. Both have played reasonably well, but Klizan has done more against better IMO.Comment -
tailing u for first time..hope your right.
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has ted got a day off..you filling in for him?
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worries me u picked jankovic though..wtf were u thinking?Comment -
Klizan has gone from up 5-1 to 5-5 in the 1st.
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Rebounds to get it 7-5 after Hanescu chokes away another service game.Comment -
Klizan in straights. Suck it Hanescu.Comment -
Typical from Haase. Guy is in control 5-3 and manages to blow it into a tie break and then gets rolled in the breaker.Comment
