EP36's Tennis Talk

[EaglesPhan36]

Huge win in the tie break for Verdasco. He had two chances to serve out the 1st set. I think losing the 1st set - especially in that manner - might have been difficult for him to recover from. 2nd set is going to be interesting. I won't be shocked if Verdasco gets rolled in the 2nd to conserve energy, but I'm hoping more so that he gets focused and finishes Djokovic off!

[EaglesPhan36]

Hopefully that was Verdasco resting up for the third. 2nd serves are the name of the game here in the 3rd I think. Djokovic's hasn't been good. Of course, Verdasco didn't win too many points off his first serve in the 2nd, so maybe he needs to get those done first! At least the +165 was worth the ride for 3 sets, be nice to finish it with a win. Stosur easily won over Li. That might have been as good a price as Ferrer over Murray yesterday. She was only -155.

[tailmypicks]

not thinking abt henin over jankovic?

[shari91]

Woohoo Stosur!!!!

[ji03]

got Verdasco as well so looking for a strong performance from him here in third.

[tailmypicks]

ur boy got the break

[EaglesPhan36]

not thinking abt henin over jankovic?

Too much chalk for my likings, especially in WTA. I know Henin has never lost to her, but they haven't met in three years. Jankovic actually has looked good in this tournament too, although this is a huge step up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Verdasco!

[shari91]

Come ON Verdasco!!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay complete.

[EaglesPhan36]

Making a small play on the UNDER at 18 for Nadal-Wawrinka just for kicks since I'm up a bit today and feel like being stupid. Probably be the match where Rafa doesn't dominate.

[EaglesPhan36]

Umm I don't know what is happening in Rome, just scoreboard watching but 5Dimes has Nadal at +925 when he's up 5-4 in the 1st. Took it for $10. Don't know if it will stand or not, but that seemed like a glaring mistake and it's only $10 ... so if something funky happens no biggie, but $90 if he wins? Seems simple stupid.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nadal breaks to go win set #1: 6-4. He's now -3745 in live betting. +925 was obviously not supposed to happen, let's see if 5Dimes mans up if it cashes.

[EaglesPhan36]

No dice as expected. Got refunded the money.

[Tsonga]

They should have to pay you for that... It's their fault and they should own up $

[shari91]

No dice as expected. Got refunded the money.

Yeah, that's really bad form on their part. They're professionals - if they screw up, they should absorb the loss.

Looking forward to your write-up tonight if you have one!

[EaglesPhan36]

Things I THINK I Know ... Saturday, May 1st

I THINK in looking at the two person parlay for Saturday, there is no better place to start than Samantha Stosur. Stosur continues to steamroll opponents on clay and draws a winnable qualifier in the semis. At -600, she's not worth the single shot, but certainly can lend herself useful in a parlay. Where should one THINK about going for the 2nd leg of a parlay? Ferrer vs. Verdasco seems the most bettable match, but in spite of the possible angles there ... I don't see a distinct advantage. I THINK Ferrer is going to wear Verdasco down eventually, but Verdasco's form is so solid right now that it's tough to go against him even if his legs may be jello at this point. Instead, I turn to Gulbis-Nadal. Surely, Nadal will win. Surely, Nadal will win comfortably. After struggling in the opening set against Wawrinka at 6-4, Nadal pounded him 6-1 to close the match. Gulbis has been a steady player on clay in the last three weeks, something not normally associated with the Latvian. Has he turned a corner? Meh. But, if Gulbis can pound his 1st serve in, I THINK he has the capability of keeping this to a 6-3, 6-3 scoreline or perhaps better. So ... with balls of steel, I propose Gulbis +6.5 at 100 to add in here. The resulting payoff with Stosur being +133.

I also THINK that the Gulbis handicap on it's own merit is a worthy play, although one that requires a great deal of intestinal fortitude. Still, I THINK Nadal's serve has been vulnerable this week. His serve numbers have been solid at 70% plus on his 1st serve, but paying attention to the Wawrinka match ... Nadal was made to work for those points with many deuce games. If Gulbis can keep his own service games simple with big serves for easier points, he could possibly keep some games tight. Gulbis has won sets off Nadal on hard courts & grass, but those don't indicate anything as far as tomorrow is concerned on Nadal's best surface. Still, if the Gulbis serve hits better than 65% on getting the 1st serve in and winning 1st serve points, I THINK he'll cover the spread here.

[Spanks]

good calls yesterday

[EaglesPhan36]

Gulbis is a winner even if Nadal bagels him in the 3rd.

[Tsonga]

good pick on the gulbis spread there.

[EaglesPhan36]

Stosur finishes the parlay off! She did not play overly well at times, but she outclassed her opponent. She'll pay Henin in the Stuttgart final. They've never met, so it will be an interesting match. Stosur had trouble getting the 1st serve in today, but if her serve is on, she can win. Henin's serve as with most WTA players, comes and goes - but she can break her opponents down on their serve pretty well ... but Stosur might have the best serve outside of Serena when it comes to getting easy points. Will be interested to see the price. Henin I'm guessing will be somewhere from -175 up as the favorite?

[EaglesPhan36]

Things I THINK I Know ... Sunday, May 2nd

I THINK the final in Rome will be closer than the meeting between Nadal & Ferrer in Monte Carlo. The clay here is faster and that has seemingly given some life to Ferrer's normally mediocre serve. Nadal has not been as dominant as he was in Monte Carlo. I THINK a lot of that has to do with his serve which has never been a dominant weapon, but normally keeps him from having to go too deep into his service games. This tournament has seen a big difference there. In the matches against Gulbis & Wawrinka, there were numerous deuce games on Nadal's serve ... that sort of thing is dangerous against someone like Ferrer who is very good defensively and earns a ton of break chances off his opponents. The plus for Nadal has been that even in letting his service games to deuce, he still has not let a lot of them wind up in break opportunities until he offered up 7 against Gulbis. Ferrer converted 11 of 20 break chances against Murray, Tsonga & Verdasco. Ferrer must control his service games and not allow Nadal many breakers. This week he has had a much more efficient serve working. I THINK if he can do that, expect Ferrer to show some pride and work at least one of the sets deeper. As a result, I THINK with the O/U set at 19 ... OVER is a good play here. That's as poor as 6-4, 6-3 to earn a push.

I don't THINK I see much of an advantage to the Stosur-Henin final in Stuttgart other than using Henin in a parlay perhaps as she is over a -300 favorite. Stosur could certainly give her a match if her serve is churning, but Saturday's match should be a bit worrisome as her serve was not effective. Henin's record on this surface is ridiculous [81-8 since 2000] and this final could be a huge momentum builder for a great run at the French. If Stosur has steamrolled her opponent today, I'd probably take a pot shot at Stosur at +270 ... but with her form on Saturday, I THINK she's nothing more than a long shot. Would never suggest taking a WTA player at -330 because even with Henin's pedigree ... upsets happen plenty.

[ji03]

At 5 Dimes Ferrer +5.5 games is even money I think that is good bet since I believe the match will be a bit closer than the one in Monte Carlo as you said.

[Goat Milk]

I like that over too in Ferrer Nadal; I think Ferrer will steal a set if Nadal plays poorly for a stretch of 3 games, but I doubt it.

Odds on Nadal to win 2-1 are +385.

[shari91]

I like that over too in Ferrer Nadal; I think Ferrer will steal a set if Nadal plays poorly for a stretch of 3 games, but I doubt it. Odds on Nadal to win 2-1 are +385.

I took Nadal 2-1 just for kicks and the over as well. Also put a little on Stosur (had to) and the over.

Thanks again for the write up EP - best of luck with your plays!

[Goat Milk]

I took Nadal 2-1 just for kicks and the over as well. Also put a little on Stosur (had to) and the over.

Thanks again for the write up EP - best of luck with your plays!

If they end up continuing this match, the over is a push at worst if Nadal wins this second set 6-1, it's 2-1 in the second set lets see when they continue.

[EaglesPhan36]

OVER is a done deal. Nadal wins 7-5, 6-2. That first set was exactly what was needed to get the over in. Lots of clay tourneys this week, see ya Monday.

[Goat Milk]

OVER is a done deal. Nadal wins 7-5, 6-2. That first set was exactly what was needed to get the over in. Lots of clay tourneys this week, see ya Monday.

Anytime there is a rain delay, Nadal comes out and dismantles his opponents. He's on another level when there is a delay. It's sort of unfair.

[beefcake]

good results eagles..

[EaglesPhan36]

Things I THINK I Know ... Monday, May 3rd

I THINK I should be fit for a straight jacket, but so should the people who have driven Ana Ivanovic's price up in Rome. She's out to a -150 favorite against a very capable clay court player in Vesnina. Vesnina has actually been pretty solid on dirt in the US swing this spring with a 5-2 record, losing to Wozniacki & Peng. I simply don't see the implied trust in Ivanovic at this price. For shits & giggles, I THINK I am invested in Vesnina this afternoon for a small amount.

[beefcake]

So am I...GL!

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh well, guess the line movement was correct for this one. Still don't trust Ivanovic for shit. Betting Russians always fun.

[EaglesPhan36]

Things I THINK I Know ... Tuesday, May 4th

I THINK when looking to the two person parlay formula that I like, starting with Seppi at a reasonable price is a good place to start. Seppi does not possess great weapons that can break an opponent down on faster courts, but he's fairly solid on the slower surfaces. Seppi outclassed Mayer at this same event a year ago and Mayer remains a pretty pedestrian clay coourt player. His lack of match-play on the surface in the past two years shows that he doesn't have much interest in it. He has just three matches on dirt in 2010 with two wins in qualifying and then a lopsided 3 set loss to Bellucci in Rome last week where he faded 6-1 in the 3rd. Seppi hasn't played much on this surface in 2010 with just four matches, a 2-2 record. He does have a ton more experience on the surface though and when his game is right, he has taken sets off Djokovic and Ferrero on dirt in the past year. Neither player has enjoyed a ton of success in 2010, but experience should find Seppi good enough. Toss in Gasquet to complete the play as the Frenchman matches up again with Olivier Rochus. Gasquet isn't Mr.Reliable, but he does draw an opponent that he smashed in Casablanca: 6-1, 6-1. Rochus hasn't played in nearly a month, nursing a back injury suffered in Monte Carlo. Even at 100%, Rochus is a 50% winner on dirt. Gasquet has been decent on dirt, losing to experienced winners Almagro, Hansecu, Berdych & Verdasco. Rochus isn't in that class. Pays right around +108.

Waiting on the O/U numbers. Ones I would THINK to look at: OVER for Lapentti & Gimeno-Traver. They have three lifetime meetings on clay, all three have gone the distance. Expect the number to reflect a 3 set possibility at 22.5/23 or thereabouts. If it's 22, I'll hop on the OVER gladly. Cilic-Berrer could be a solid OVER shot at a low number possibly. Cilic is inconsistent from match-2-match, while Berrer has actually played okay on clay with a 3 set loss to Hansecu last week and a win over Monaco in Monte Carlo. If the total is set low at 21 or less, I'd THINK about the OVER. Might THINK about an UNDER for Gasquet, but I THINK the number will wind up being too low.

[ji03]

I like Franco Skugar over Fogini at plus money given that Fogini has lost all three matches on clay and Skugar has already won three matches on this surface in qualies.

[tailmypicks]

i like sorana cirstea today