EP36's Tennis Talk

[EaglesPhan36]

Finally got the WTA lines up. Djokovic-Stosur parlay booked for +117.

Nadal rolls: 6-2, 6-2. Ferrer's serve was on the same level as the Kohlschreiber match and not his first couple of matches here, never had a chance with that weak ass sheeit.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pardon me ... Ferrer with another break, still down 5-3. Nadal definitely not as sharp in the 2nd.

Need that break back prop again. LoL.

[EaglesPhan36]

I THINK being able to get Stosur today at +162 is something I have to do. Zvonareva has been playing well this week and I think a lot of stock in today's price has to be coming from the way she looked in the opening set against Wozniacki yesterday before the injury to Woz ended the match. Still, head-2-head wise Stosur will have confidence heading into this one, I THINK. Stosur has won four straight against Zvonareva, though none of their match-ups has come on clay.

If you need something to parlay today, I THINK you'd do worse than tossing Kevin Anderson in at -280 in Baton Rouge. He has rolled through that Challenge this week and has another very winnable match-up today.

[EaglesPhan36]

5-0 Stosur in the 1st. Won't be that easy I don't think the 2nd set, but this is why betting Russians as bigger favorites in WTA is poison. Zvonareva goes from dominating all week to shit in 20 minutes.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bagel bagel bagel. Zvonareva wins 5 points in the entire set. Wow.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thorough Aussie ass kicking. 3-0 in the 2nd. One of the most dominating chick's performances I've seen from someone not named Serena.

[EaglesPhan36]

Zvonareva with a sweet temper tantrum. Destroyed a racket.

[EaglesPhan36]

Amazing. Since she busted the racket, she's now in the match. 4-3 with Zvonareva now serving to get even.

[EaglesPhan36]

True Russian form, battled back, got broke and Stosur takes her out 6-3!

[Jrod124]

good pick EP!

[EaglesPhan36]

Interesting week coming up. Only one big event, Barcelona on the ATP. No WTA event. Lots of Challengers and ITF for the ladies. Looking at the Barcelona draw, Nadal obviously is a huge favorite. He's got a cakewalk to the finals. Ferrer is the best guy in his quarter and he just killed him. Two Fernandos down low and we know what he did to Verdasco. Should be little doubt he makes the final. Don't even think you take a look at anyone on that side as a threat. In the other half, good top quarter with lots of dirtballers like JCF, Monaco & Almagro stuck in the top quarter. Also have Tsonga there. It's set up for a JCF-Tsonga rematch. I'll be interested to see Tsonga's prices once he plays in the 3rd round. 2nd round he'll be a big favorite. 3rd round he could draw Almagro again. He was a dog against him last week and won. Want to see how much the books adjust. Should be JCF's quarter to lose. Bottom quarter has Berdych and Soderling as the top seeds. I'm thinking Berdych the head case could be back this week. He doesn't have a particularly rough draw to the QFs. Soderling might have a tough time early with Chela perhaps in the 2nd round. If he gets by him there though he can run to the semis. Haven't seen any futures, but I'd think Nadal at anything -300 or less is flat out money even for the price. JCF & Soderling would be the others I'd look at on the other side, but they'd need to be a big price to make a potential final vs. Nadal worth a damn. That could be possible if the books are honing in on Rafa as the huge favorite to win these tourneys that he should be. I'm talking like +1000 or better or no play.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st round match-ups that I will be looking at:

Nieminen +165 over Bellucci
Kubot +107 over Granollers
Andreev -146 over Gasquet

Parlay possibilities: Montanes -290, Gulbis -190, maybe Chela & Almagro [both -600 and higher]

Those are Pinnacle prices. Will look more later when my book sets some lines.

[EaglesPhan36]

Things I THINK I Know ... Monday, April 19th

I THINK Andreev at -150 over Gasquet is a good shot in Barcelona on Monday. Gasquet has been so-so in his return to the court in 2010. On dirt, he is 4-4. The problem is he goes from solid to crap in the span of the same match. His uneven play could make the O/U a good play too here on the OVER I THINK if it's set around 21.5. Gasquet played here last year and didn't inspire much as he lost to Christophe Rochus in the 2nd round. Andreev had his best run here in 2009, losing to Robredo in 3 sets in the 3rd round. The Russian has been pretty good on clay with a 7-5 mark this season. All four losses were to solid players. I THINK I'll wait to see where the O/U is set as I'd probably do that play first over the side.

That's about all I like for sides on Monday. Originally thought about Kubot, but his inconsistency is troubling although at plus money - he's probably worth a toss against Granollers. I THINK I might take a look at some O/U plays once the numbers are set, but Monday looks like a light day.

[EaglesPhan36]

Andreev-Gasquet O/U at 22.5. Pass on that. Books setting it for a 3 setter, but juice starting on the under. I'll stick with Andreev outright. I THINK the Almagro-Venture O/U at 19 is ripe for a potential OVER.

Interesting match-up with the Spanish youngster Riba against Greul. Riba is the fave at -130 and he's gone through two qualifying matches here. Greul beat him twice before, but both meetings were when Riba was a teen and from three or more years ago. Greul is 1-6 on clay with his lone win over Isner & he's never played on this court. I THINK I may add Riba to the agenda for Monday as he could have an advantage having already played on court and playing in front of the home crowd. He's done pretty well in some Challengers and beaten some travelling vets like Greul, except better.

[rumple]

Tried to fade the DeBakker steam and was treated win a quick painless 43 minute ass whooping. Will get it back with Andreev, like that one alot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Also, just decided to hit this one - Almagro/Ventura OVER 19. Almagro has not been that steady on clay yet this season and Venture has some experience against him. Almagro will win at the end of the day, but I THINK Ventura can hang tight deep into each set or maybe push to 3 if Almagro is still off a little.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mmm Ventura you suck.

[beefcake]

How O. hernandez was such a fav is beyond me,did the books base it on on that 1 big win recently?

[EaglesPhan36]

Marchenko is a total mook on clay though, but Hernandez is a POS. Price falling on Andreev. Curious, but I'll book it now at -135.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow. All money is on Gasquet. He's down to +105 and Andreev at -125 after opening at -150. Either the fix is in or there are a lot of stupid people on Gasquet.

[EaglesPhan36]

Andreev is probably bound to lose by hook or crook as my morning has been absolute blah so far. Lost the total. Riba played good against Greul but shit one game in the first set and one in the second and will likely lose 6-4, 6-4.

[crokkettt]

Wow. All money is on Gasquet.

where can i find these infos ?? thanks

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm not basing that on anything but the price crokkett that I saw at 5Dimes last night vs. the price right before the match. Assume some big money went on him for the price to drop that much. I know there is some place that shows the price and how it went from hour to hour, but I always forget where. Sure someone here can mention it again. Andreev just broke to go up 3-2.

I think betfair you can find prices when the match is in-play and where the money is on that.

[jashtonrich]

I'm not basing that on anything but the price crokkett that I saw at 5Dimes last night vs. the price right before the match. Assume some big money went on him for the price to drop that much. I know there is some place that shows the price and how it went from hour to hour, but I always forget where. Sure someone here can mention it again. Andreev just broke to go up 3-2.

I think betfair you can find prices when the match is in-play and where the money is on that.

go to sbr odds and click tennis,then atp click on match and the click which book and that should give you the prices from opening to close. hope that helps

[EaglesPhan36]

Right on. Thanks. From 5Dimes.

MONEYLINES
04/18 16:47 +130 / -150
04/19 01:35 +135 / -155
04/19 02:25 +125 / -145
04/19 03:40 +120 / -140
04/19 04:08 +115 / -135
04/19 05:25 +125 / -145
04/19 07:06 +130 / -150
04/19 07:37 +125 / -145
04/19 08:49 +120 / -140
04/19 08:53 +115 / -135
04/19 11:00 +113 / -133
04/19 11:28 +106 / -126
04/19 11:34 +100 / -120
04/19 11:36 +103 / -123

Hard to gauge it all though since SBR only had two books listed for this match, but at 5Dimes which is where I do most of my wagering ... this line movement was noticable.

By the way, they are WTA stlying this one. Three straight breaks of serve.

[jashtonrich]

Right on. Thanks. From 5Dimes.

no problem bud! hopefully today will go better than yesterday not only did lose over 2k but it was the way i lost was live betting and did not take advantage at the market and it's funny when i saw you post that i remembered hey dumbass you should have checked the money trail before throwing it on the wrong track
so today let's see if i can pull another rabbit outta my ass and recover those losses

[EaglesPhan36]

4th straight break of service. Jesus. Andreev couldn't have had this set gift wrapped any better and blown it. Hence why the fix might still be in somehow here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gasquet takes the 1st set tie break with more WTA serving. 2nd set should be interesting to see what sort of BS is in store for this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Raining now. 7pm in Barcelona, so we'll see if they get finished. Either way, sure I am boned.

[beefcake]

i think with this forecast,they should be able to get the match in...

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/08181.html

[EaglesPhan36]

Obviously some information was known I would think. Gasquet won. Beautiful Monday. Blechh.

[ringemup]

didn see y gasquet would even be an underdog in this match...i woulda given the edge to gasquet given the fact andreev realli is not a deserving favorite

[EaglesPhan36]

Unless some O/U numbers stick out, I may sit Tuesday out. Lots of unappealing match-ups in my opinion.

[beefcake]

goddam rafa and dave withdrew...Take a futures shot on Soda?

[beefcake]

any plays?