Stacocakes Australian Open Thread

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 08:43 PM

Djokovic is back on track winning the second set

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 08:46 PM

Ferrer with the break and is trying to serve out the second set to go up 2-0.Did you pull the trigger on Ferrer Eagles?

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 08:57 PM

Yep. Wish I had done the same on Llodra. Thought he was a good play at the price because Monaco doesn't deserve a -250 on hard courts. He's looking solid too. Ferrer still has to close this out though. With all the rallies from 2 sets down in this tournament, it's not over until Ferrer wins a 3rd set.

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 08:59 PM

I agree.Anything is possible
Ivanovic in the third set now. Will be interesting to see what happens with her.She's in serenas quarter so her being eliminated would be good
Davydenko cruises with an easy three set win

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 09:13 PM

Almagro the latest to choke away another 2 set lead. Jesus.

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 09:25 PM

Thats how he has got the name almugro

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 09:27 PM

5-1 dulko.Ana finished
Ferrer gets the break in the third

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 09:28 PM

Ivanovic continues her fall to mediocrity. I remember betting Almagro in his 5 set win over Massu 1st round last year at the Aussie Open and sweating it out in the 5th. Dude just doesn't believe in doing things easy. F*ck if he would have screwed the pooch like I picked in round one against Malisse, I could have avoided the terror of this moment.

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 09:42 PM

wow dulko chokes serving out the match. Could get interesting here

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 09:47 PM

and dulko beats ivanovic. -600 favorite down

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 09:47 PM

Ana's out. Is she still doing Verdasco?

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 09:54 PM

nah that ended last year at some point. Ever since she started dating him last year though she has been bad. He jinxed her

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 09:57 PM

Seriously, has there been a major with more men's players blowing 2-0 set leads than this one? Llodra, Almagro and I have a feeling Ferrer will be the 3rd tonight JUST IN THE EARLY MATCHES! Thank goodness Almagro got a break in the 5th though.

hedgejob · 01-20-10, 10:17 PM

This tourney has been a betting nightmare. I bet on dogs they lose, bet on favs they lose. Enough for me.

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 10:17 PM

Geez Ferrer gets broken in the fourth. Ya these 2 set down comebacks are happening alot. I just think these guys get the 2-0 up and then they just start to coast it out and then they have some problems and then they can't turn around the momentum. Fitness may also play a factor. Isner was up 2-0 yesterday and barely able to move and he finished off that match in three sets because SOrenson was brutal and couldn't take advantage of any of his chances but if he could Isner would have died out the rest of the match.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 10:22 PM

Sorensen F-ed that match when he took the time out to tend to the boo-boo on his knee. Monaco looks like he's completing the down from 0-2 win tonight. I expect Ferrer to do the same since I won one of two bets tonight. Winning two in the same night seems impossible.

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 10:39 PM

Zvonareva going for the double bagel

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 10:42 PM

Ferrer is done. Crowd is gonna all be behind Baghdatis in the 5th. Thanks for the ride Duh-veed and the choke.

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 10:49 PM

Ferrer still has a chance but ya definate momentum behind baghdatis.
Haas will save you tonight.I feel good about that one

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 10:53 PM

I actually skipped that one. I was going to use my Almagro winnings to invest in it, but that match took too long to wrap and I didn't want to lose more than two matches today. With the way that one and the Ferrer match headed, I wasn't sure I'd grab one - and my book doesn't put matches back up after the listed start time they have for it which was 9:30pm ET for this one.

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 11:12 PM

Sorry to see Ferrer shit the bed for you Eagles. Anything is possible but not looking good at this point

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 11:16 PM

No worries. Once Almagro saved face, I pretty much expected Ferrer to fold and marked this one a loss once it got a 4th set. Baghdatis is cramping up, but only needs to suck it up for a game.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-20-10, 11:53 PM

Took a very small stake on Montanes at -130 because Youzhny is wiping the floor with his guy and figures to be done quick giving me something to track until it's sleepy time. Montanes has some nice scalps on hard courts against capable guys late in 2009 and a couple confidence boosters coming in with prior tournaments in 2010.

Stacocakes · 01-20-10, 11:57 PM

Good luck Eagles
Haas not the best of starts..

EaglesPhan36 · 01-21-10, 12:04 AM

That match should be a long one though Staco. Has 4 or 5 written all over it.

Stacocakes · 01-21-10, 02:51 AM

You called it Eagles, great 5 set match with Haas. Stressful yes but a win is a win I will take it. Back to back winning days which is always good

Serena Williams is a game away from finishing off her opponent.A good showing by serena today. I believe Fed is later on tonight but I don't want to stay up any longer.

Will be back tomorrow with some more plays.If you guys like anything feel free to let me know

RobbReport · 01-21-10, 05:41 AM

I like Monfils to win his match. I know Isner has been playing great with the big serve and even moving in a lot more, but I feel Gael will grind him down.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-21-10, 09:43 AM

F*ck me, I finally got on the right side of one of those 2-0 blowups with Montanes. Went to bed with him down 2-0 and wrote it off. This has been an amazing two rounds on the men's side. I count 7 matches so far where guys have blown 2-0 leads and lost.

Stacocakes · 01-21-10, 11:54 AM

Nice comeback with Montanes.
All of these 2-0 set leaders I am guessing would have had to have been layed at odds of 1.01 so there are some really happy and some really mad people out there.
It's going to be interesting to see how Isner plays today because he barely made it to the end of his last match. Maybe one day of rest is enough to recharge him but surely he can't to many more matches
Will look at some plays and post them later.Still debating on a couple matches

Stacocakes · 01-21-10, 12:05 PM

If any of you guys have a matchbook account there is still a whole bunch of Serena Williams outrights available at +370.Betfair usually has the best lines for these outright markets and Betfairs current price on Serena is +295. Huge difference. You could just take the Serena Williams outrights and arb it with another book for her "not to win" or let it ride.Depends how much risk you want. I've already put alot on Serena outrights so I am not going to take any more of them so go grab the +370

Stacocakes · 01-21-10, 12:12 PM

Damn already gone now.That price was up there for about 2 days

beefcake · 01-21-10, 12:19 PM

I guess by ranking safina is the best value out there still at 17-1..I wonder if her head is on straight..,have you seen her side of the bracket?
Cake...if she plays like she can..

Stacocakes · 01-21-10, 04:05 PM

On the womens side anything is possible really. I wouldn't be surprised if Safina did win but she is to much of a headcase to put together two weeks of good tennis. Safina has Baltacha next who she should easily beat. After that she is playing the winner of Kirilenko and Vinci, which should be another easy win. In the quarter finals she will face either Jankovic,Bondarenko,Zheng or Bartoli. Jankovic is probably the best player of the four but she isn't miss dependable either. The other side of Safina's bracket is what scares me. Kuznetsova,Clijsters and Henin are still alive and one of those players will probably be in the semi-finals facing Safina if she can get there. Getting 17-1 though for a player that is almost guaranteed to get to the quarter finals sounds like a good bet to me though. At that point anything can happen.

As far as todays matches here is what I am looking at:

Cilic/Wawrinka - Wawrinka is 4-1 career vs Cilic though Cilic won the last meeting earlier this year. Cilic is also much improved since the 2006-2008 years in which the other head to head matches occured so the head to head record doesn't mean to much. What concerns me here is that Cilic had a long marathon match in the second round while Wawrinka has been cruising in straight sets up until this point. I'm considering possibly taking Wawrinka at +119 but have yet to pull the trigger. Can really see this match going either way

MOnfils/Isner - Isner is 2-1 lifetime vs MOnfils and is a +202 dog which looks really good. Thing that worries me though is that Isner barely made it through his last match so I am not sure how much he has left in the tank. What worries me here is that Monfils opened around -190 or so and has steadily gone up to -221 right now so I am sure people are betting Monfils because they are questioning Isner's fitness. Will probably pass on this match.

Karlovic/Ljubicic - Complete toss up as odds dictate. Pass on this

Jankovic/Bondarenko - Wow 9-0 career head to head record favoring Jankovic. Not really much you can say to put some light on Bondarenko in this situation. Bondarenko has only won a set off of Jankovic once and that was their first meeting haha. Going to take the -222 on Jankovic but will probably parlay it with a couple other players.

Will think about these plays for a couple hours and let you guys know close to start time. There aren't to many matches in which I could see a big upset today.

Stacocakes · 01-21-10, 06:39 PM

Plays for today:

Wawrinka +116
Janknovic -209

Looks as though some money is coming in on Isner now. GOing to stay away from that match.Good luck guys

EaglesPhan36 · 01-21-10, 06:43 PM

I'm taking Monfils/Jankovic parlay. Like both plays singularly, but I am not in the practice of paying in the neighborhood of -200. I lean to Cilic and wrote a blog about it, but will probably wait and see if this parlay has any shot before deciding to play or pass on that one. Also like Bartoli tonight, but not sure about pulling the trigger there just yet at -140.