Played like a chump. As I've said with Simon last year, will watch Soderling close in his next tournament - but he may be a cash cow by fading him. Some upsets today. Soderling, Robredo, Querrey all got beat.
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He screwed my big parlay, had 4 out of 5 and he was the last f-ing one.Comment -
I have a lot of affinity for Sweden, so I'm always heavily in Söderling's corner. I honestly thought he had a decent shot to win this tournament after the showing in Doha. Then the loss to Ginepri in Chennai hampered those thoughts, plus pulling out of the tuneup. I think the guy is not necessarily a 'flash-in-the-pan', I just think he's injury-prone. He obviously had the talent to knock Granollers out, but as the match went on, those types of injuries get worse and the racket weighs a tonne. It's a bummer to see him go out like that, but hopefully he'll be back for the US Masters and then the clay court season. I'm expecting a big year from Söderling if he can stay healthy.Comment -
Besides the injury concerns I also noticed Soderling was back to his horrible temper like he had a couple years ago. Looks as though he gives up alot of the time. He's good enough to stick around the top 15 but I don't see him winning any slams ever.Comment -
Robredo was around -600 I believe and Querrey -300 something. To big losses.
Guys have any plays for the rest of today or tomorrow?Comment -
Wow I know lots of people that chose Gasquet last night and thats a horrible way to lose after being up 2 sets to 0 over Youzhny.
Looks as though Starace lost as well in three sets. Dissapointing. A horrible day 2 has eliminated my Karlovic profits and now I am down. Lots of time to get it back
Both Serena and Roger won so the futures are both still alive.
Venus williams won easily so if Soderling hadn't choked last night that 3 player parlay would have hit.
Surprised Oudin lost. Looked pretty good in the first set winning 6-2 but she lost the next two sets.
Cornet with another first round loss.Whatever happened to her?At one point it looked like she might be a good player.Not anymore
Cibulkova up 5-2 I hear with match points and then blows the match.Unbelievable
Nothing bet so far for today but here are my leans for day 3:
Del Potro is -351 over Blake. Price is kinda high but Blake is pretty much done at this point. They have played once before and Del Potro retired during the match. The only thing preventing me from hitting this line as is or putting it in a parlay is the fact that I am unsure about Del Potro's wrist. Will think about this today and see if I can find any additional information about Del Potro's health.
The battle of the Wozniack girls. Caroline Wozniacki is 5-1 career in this match up with the only loss being a retirement by Caroline. Don't look at her last 10 matches though...brutal. 7 losses in the last 10 matches. That can't be good. Hmm the more I think about this now the more I am thinking of passing on this match.
Zvonareva has some injury concerns so pass on her at -429. Not worth the risk
Ivanovic -260 over Dulko. Ana is 2-0 lifetime in this matchup. Ana's serve as always will be a problem but the -260 price isn't that bad if you stick her in a parlay. Considering it.
Justine Henin +109 over Dementieva. I have been thinking about this match since the draws came out. Lifetime Henin is 9-2 vs Dementieva, though the matches are mainly from 2002 and 2003. Dementieva has become a better player since then but she has to be one of the most mentally fragile players on tour. That is where Henin is going t o have a big advantage in this match having been a major champion before.
Going to think about these plays throughout the day and will post the plays later.
I have just locked in Henin +109 as the first play of the dayComment -
Henin has been playing like Clijsters and i expect and hope her to win today.Comment -
Don't feel bad about being down Staco. I am a little too, but I think yesterday probably did that to a lot of folks. Lots of surprising results yesterday IMO. I said at the outset that people should have run far away from that Gasquet-Youzhny match. Men's side tonight doesn't offer a ton. I need to look at Niemenen-Serra as I think there might be a good value pick on Serra - and he's my only winner so far! I have thought about riding Dr.Ivo again, but the odds are close to my cutoff point for a singles wager and he's still Ivo at the end of the day.
I might delve into WTA today because there's one I strongly believe goes the way of revenge or the girl just winds up getting punked. Wickmayer vs. Pennetta. Pennetta was playing superbly in Auckland before Wickmayer steamrolled her unexpectedly in the final. That's two for two for Wickmayer against Pennetta, but I think Pennetta has that streak of pride and turns the tables today. If not, then she's just another head case. Leaning to this, but not 100% yet.Comment -
I was considering Pennetta as well Eagles. Wickmayer barely won her first round match so that doesn't give me much confidence in her going forward
I am not sure if the times are screwed up on the betting sites but aren't a bunch of these players playing on back to back days? Blake for instance played yesterday and he is scheduled to play later tonight, that could be a huge factor in alot of these matches. If a player plays a five set match today and then has to play the very next day that could pose a big problem.
Agree on gasquet. I was telling everyone in chat that the match had five sets written all over it and I was also surprised that Gasquet was a -150 favorite. I figured the match would be a pick em or even possibly youzhny as a very small favorite.
Karlovic is 4-2 lifetime vs Benneteau having won the last two. After a five set match in the first round I don't really trust Karlovic at all at this point. I figure its only a matter of time before he loses. I feel alot more comfortable playing Karlovic as an underdog and hoping for his serve to guide him through the match as opposed to taking him as a favorite in a best of five match.
There are a number of plays that I like today but the odds are so poor on all of them that I am not really sure its worth it to take the plunge at this point. I have Henin locked in already and I like her to beat Dementieva but after that there isn't much to choose from unless I want to bet at least a -300 favorite.
As far as Del Potro I am concerned about him retiring if he is losing in the match .He complained about the wrist injury hurting him towards the end of his first round match and that scares me. Definately not going to bet him at -328.
I guess there were 5 1.01 bet's that lost yesterday. Don't usually see that many lose let alone in one day.Comment -
Just watching the end of that Gasquet match right now, another epic choke by Gasquet. Even had the break up in the fifth set and he was broken back to love. Youz was cramping up the whole time to.
Just going with Henin now. Will maybe add another play later not sure yet. del potro match is still five hours away so may make a play on thatComment -
Wozniacki is cruising.Should have taken her. Her past 10 matches record scared me off thoughComment -
Hantuchova was a big favorite and is now down a set. She always finds a way to loseComment -
Yeah Cakes, what is it this year with the obvious value bets all hitting the tank after promising starts? L. Mayer really screwed me over (sorry chat guys!) and I'm trying to regroup for the late matches tonight.Originally posted by StraitShooterComment -
Who do you like tonight rogue?
If anyone has Matchbook they have a whole pile of Serena Williams outrights at +370 and you can look on some other sites and find Serena not to win at around -350 so if you wanted to get a nice arb you could. Plus every match Serena wins from here on will make that "serena not to win" number go down if you want to wait a bit before hedging it outComment -
F-in A. I decided to just F around and play an underdog tonight. Made my choice between Korolev and Makarova in WTA, took the chick. Korolev is close to being up two sets on Berdych. That guy might be head case number 1.Comment -
Seems that bets people like but don't end up betting hit at a rate of about 80%
Typical Berdych match. If he had half a brain he would be a decent player. I was actually looking at putting him in a parlay today but didn't.I think he was around -400 to win this match. Some big favs going down thus far in the three daysComment -
That's about right. Berdych now down 2 sets. Dumb ass I took is already down a break in the 1st. This is why I stayed clear of using any "real" money plays today, just didn't feel it for most of these match-ups and of course the bomb might hit that I decided not to detonate.
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burrrrrrrrrrrrrrriedComment -
Isner is hanging by a thread here but Sorensen just can't get any of the important points
Going to pass on Del Potro.Don't want to gamble on a player that could be injured
Just going with Henin as my only play tonightComment -
Del Potro and Blake tied 1-1 in sets and Blake has actually broken Del Potro in the third set to lead 4-2 at this point. I've been burnt on Blake so many times that I still have no faith in him getting this done.Think he will find a way to screw it up still. Just glad I stayed away from this match.Would be very stressful
Bps back and forth in the Henin match but neither can convert their chances yet.This is going to be a good and long matchComment -
Henin with the first break niceComment -
haha break back Del Potro.Typical BlakeComment -
break back dementieva. BahComment -
A quick glance at tomorrow and who I am considering:
I was liking Baghdatis because he has played well coming into this tournament and is better on this surface then Ferrer but the career head to head record is 2-0 Ferrer so I am going to think about this some more
Liking Haas over Tipsarevic. 1-1 career head to head record. Haas has only won 3 of his last 10 matches though which concerns me especially since Tipsarevice has won 7 of his last 10 coming in. Another match I will sleep on
Womens side is full of a bunch of big favorites. Will probably pass on thoseComment -
Blake serves out the third set to go up 2 sets to 1. Can't believe what I am seeing. Surely Blake has to wake up at some point and realize he is James Blake
Henin breaks again but has bps against her own serve now.Henin having lots of trouble with her service gameComment -
Anyone know what Nieminen is doing?Comment -
Nieminen is up 2 sets to 1 with the four set currently in a tiebreakComment -
Nemo is a dickhead.Comment -
Nieminen lost the fourth set so the match is going to a fifth setComment -
Blake/Del Potro are going to a fifth set as wellComment -
C'mon Serra take the 5th now brother
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FUKK! serra would have won this match by now if he didint throw away the 3rd set, he had it in the bag. god damnit now we gotta go to the 5th set...
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Nemo had the game in his hands and choked.Comment -
Henin wins the first set
Guess Blake had a trainer between sets. I am sure he will blow this fifth setComment -
Yep, have Henin and Nemo. Henin looks good.Comment
