Well it's been a couple months but we are finally back and ready to get the 2010 tennis year started with the Australian Open. This is the time of the year where I get excited to bet some tennis only to log into my BetFair account to see that I am unable to bet the Australian open because I haven't verified myself for betting on Australian Markets. Since this is the only time of the year that I use the australian markets I just use other sites to bet the tennis instead of Betfair but it seems that the only time I remember this whole fiasco is when the Australian Open comes around each year. With that being said, since I don't have the type of live betting I like I am not going to go to crazy with my Australian Open bets. It pains me to looks at the lines that I am looking at on my other sites and then looking at Betfair to see what the lines would be if I was able to use it. Very sad
Anyways on to the Australian Open. The draw came out today for both the mens and the womens side and here are my first impressions of it.
Of the seeded players, Roger Federer definately got the hardest first round match. It amazes me that a player like Lleyton Hewitt who is ranked 22 at this tournament gets to face a qualifier in the first round who will probably be a complete stiff while the number 1 player in the world has to face Andreev in the first round. Andreev is a decent player with a really good forehand. No I do not think he will beat Federer in the first round but still its a player that you can't fall asleep on.
I'll go through the big names here that have a chance to win this tournament and tell you what I think about each player's individual draw.
Roger Federer
I will start this off by saying that Federer is one of my two picks to win the Australian Open. I have been preaching for a week to everyone that will listen in sbr chat to get Federer at +300 to win the Australian Open. I already have my bet locked in which is good because the line has drifted down a bit to around +280 or so. Still some really good value though for the number one ranked player. His first round match against Andreev is a bit of a test as a I mentioned above but after Andreev Federer will likely face Montanes, Hewitt, Verdasco/Daveydenko and then Djokovic/Tsonga or Soderling in the semis. A fairly easy road for Federer which will pretty much guarantee him at least a place in the semifinals.
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic was a player that I was considering as an outright for this tournament but now that he is on the same side of the bracket as Federer I will likely pass on that bet. Novak faces Gimeno-traver, One of two bums I have never even heard of, Chardy, Robredo and then either Tsonga or Soderling. Djokovic will pretty much walk through to the quarter finals but the match against Soderling or Tsonga will be a tough test. Tsonga has recently switched racquets to Nadal's Babolat racquet so I am not really sure how that will affect his game. We know what happened with Djokovic when he changed racquets last year and played horribly. I still favor Djokovic to move into the semi's though where he will lose to Federer.
Robin Soderling and Tsonga
I am going to group these two together to save time. The only player getting in the way of one of these two reaching the quarter finals is Tommy Haas and I think Haas had his final kick at the can last year so he shouldn't be to much of a problem. You can get Soderling at around +4900 or +6400 to win the Australian Open. I do not think either one of them will beat Djokovic but those odds are very good because as we know, anything can happen in these tournaments, case in point Soderling at the French Open. If you took futures on either of these players you could hedge your outright in the quarters,semis and finals if you wanted and still come up with some money at the end. Would like to try this but not having Betfair available to bet with this tournament has made it so that I cannot do that. Maybe Matchbook will have the futures market up right until the end which will allow you some time to get out of your bet. Tough call. Will probably pass on both of these players.
Andy Roddick
I made some good money with Roddick last year with futures and individual match bets. When you have a serve like his you can ride that through these majors even when the rest of his game is not up to par. The odds for Roddick to win the Aussie Open are +2900 and that is pretty good. He will have to play Gabashvilli, Querrey, Gonzalez and then in the quarter finals will likely face Del Potro. Very scary. As you know from recent matches between the two that match is basically a coin toss. How will Del Potro's fitness be at this point of the major. Very tough call. What I do like about Roddick though is that out of the four probably quarter finalists on his side of the bracket, his odds are way way better in the outright market. Check this : Roddick +2900, Nadald +490, Del Potro +820 and Murray +720. In matches that could go either way in the quarter finals Roddick is defiantely the best value. Still considering him.
Del Potro
I still do not know how he won the US Open. Federer had so many chances to put him away in that match but Del Potro fought and you have to give him credit. He's a very stressfull player to watch when you have money on him because he looks like he is going to lay down and die during each match especially in these best of 5 matches. Bottom line though is that he wins and that is really all that matters. He has Russell in the first round followed by Blake, Mayer and then Cilic. Del Potro should beat all of those players with Cilic being the only wildcard but Cilic is to inconsistant to trust at this point. Del Potro in the quarters like I said above is basically a toss up against Roddick. Definately better value in Roddick. Just really can't see Del Potro winning this tournament to be honest. I am staying away
Andy Murray
Murray has got to win a slam at some point doesn't he? +720 are his odds to win here and that isn't that bad. He will face a qualifier, Bolelli, Melzer and monfils before facing Nadal in the quarter finals. Murray is 2-7 lifetime vs Nadal and that is what scares me, though the majority of the Nadal wins were earlier when Murray was crying all of the time. I like the odds on Murray but I don't see him beating Nadal in the quarter finals. Will have to pass on Murray
Rafa Nadal
Nadal is in the heavy serve portion of the draw. Luckily as long as you can return the serve back you will have no problems beating these stiffs he will be facing. Luczak and Mayer shouldn't cause rafa any problems and then he will face Isner and Karlovic who both don't have the stamina to go far in majors. As mentioned above I see Nadal beating Murray in the quarters and then in the semi finals he will have to face either Del Potro or Roddick. As we all know Del Potro has been blowing Nadal off of the court recently so Nadal is definately hoping to play Roddick if he had to choose between the two. Tough call on Nadal futures.
As of right now the only bet that I have locked in is Roger Federer to win the Aussie Open at +300. I am still going to debate who I am going to pick as my outright bet from the other side of the draw. It is probably between Roddick and Nadal.
Anyways on to the Australian Open. The draw came out today for both the mens and the womens side and here are my first impressions of it.
Of the seeded players, Roger Federer definately got the hardest first round match. It amazes me that a player like Lleyton Hewitt who is ranked 22 at this tournament gets to face a qualifier in the first round who will probably be a complete stiff while the number 1 player in the world has to face Andreev in the first round. Andreev is a decent player with a really good forehand. No I do not think he will beat Federer in the first round but still its a player that you can't fall asleep on.
I'll go through the big names here that have a chance to win this tournament and tell you what I think about each player's individual draw.
Roger Federer
I will start this off by saying that Federer is one of my two picks to win the Australian Open. I have been preaching for a week to everyone that will listen in sbr chat to get Federer at +300 to win the Australian Open. I already have my bet locked in which is good because the line has drifted down a bit to around +280 or so. Still some really good value though for the number one ranked player. His first round match against Andreev is a bit of a test as a I mentioned above but after Andreev Federer will likely face Montanes, Hewitt, Verdasco/Daveydenko and then Djokovic/Tsonga or Soderling in the semis. A fairly easy road for Federer which will pretty much guarantee him at least a place in the semifinals.
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic was a player that I was considering as an outright for this tournament but now that he is on the same side of the bracket as Federer I will likely pass on that bet. Novak faces Gimeno-traver, One of two bums I have never even heard of, Chardy, Robredo and then either Tsonga or Soderling. Djokovic will pretty much walk through to the quarter finals but the match against Soderling or Tsonga will be a tough test. Tsonga has recently switched racquets to Nadal's Babolat racquet so I am not really sure how that will affect his game. We know what happened with Djokovic when he changed racquets last year and played horribly. I still favor Djokovic to move into the semi's though where he will lose to Federer.
Robin Soderling and Tsonga
I am going to group these two together to save time. The only player getting in the way of one of these two reaching the quarter finals is Tommy Haas and I think Haas had his final kick at the can last year so he shouldn't be to much of a problem. You can get Soderling at around +4900 or +6400 to win the Australian Open. I do not think either one of them will beat Djokovic but those odds are very good because as we know, anything can happen in these tournaments, case in point Soderling at the French Open. If you took futures on either of these players you could hedge your outright in the quarters,semis and finals if you wanted and still come up with some money at the end. Would like to try this but not having Betfair available to bet with this tournament has made it so that I cannot do that. Maybe Matchbook will have the futures market up right until the end which will allow you some time to get out of your bet. Tough call. Will probably pass on both of these players.
Andy Roddick
I made some good money with Roddick last year with futures and individual match bets. When you have a serve like his you can ride that through these majors even when the rest of his game is not up to par. The odds for Roddick to win the Aussie Open are +2900 and that is pretty good. He will have to play Gabashvilli, Querrey, Gonzalez and then in the quarter finals will likely face Del Potro. Very scary. As you know from recent matches between the two that match is basically a coin toss. How will Del Potro's fitness be at this point of the major. Very tough call. What I do like about Roddick though is that out of the four probably quarter finalists on his side of the bracket, his odds are way way better in the outright market. Check this : Roddick +2900, Nadald +490, Del Potro +820 and Murray +720. In matches that could go either way in the quarter finals Roddick is defiantely the best value. Still considering him.
Del Potro
I still do not know how he won the US Open. Federer had so many chances to put him away in that match but Del Potro fought and you have to give him credit. He's a very stressfull player to watch when you have money on him because he looks like he is going to lay down and die during each match especially in these best of 5 matches. Bottom line though is that he wins and that is really all that matters. He has Russell in the first round followed by Blake, Mayer and then Cilic. Del Potro should beat all of those players with Cilic being the only wildcard but Cilic is to inconsistant to trust at this point. Del Potro in the quarters like I said above is basically a toss up against Roddick. Definately better value in Roddick. Just really can't see Del Potro winning this tournament to be honest. I am staying away
Andy Murray
Murray has got to win a slam at some point doesn't he? +720 are his odds to win here and that isn't that bad. He will face a qualifier, Bolelli, Melzer and monfils before facing Nadal in the quarter finals. Murray is 2-7 lifetime vs Nadal and that is what scares me, though the majority of the Nadal wins were earlier when Murray was crying all of the time. I like the odds on Murray but I don't see him beating Nadal in the quarter finals. Will have to pass on Murray
Rafa Nadal
Nadal is in the heavy serve portion of the draw. Luckily as long as you can return the serve back you will have no problems beating these stiffs he will be facing. Luczak and Mayer shouldn't cause rafa any problems and then he will face Isner and Karlovic who both don't have the stamina to go far in majors. As mentioned above I see Nadal beating Murray in the quarters and then in the semi finals he will have to face either Del Potro or Roddick. As we all know Del Potro has been blowing Nadal off of the court recently so Nadal is definately hoping to play Roddick if he had to choose between the two. Tough call on Nadal futures.
As of right now the only bet that I have locked in is Roger Federer to win the Aussie Open at +300. I am still going to debate who I am going to pick as my outright bet from the other side of the draw. It is probably between Roddick and Nadal.
