Stacocakes Australian Open Thread

[beefcake]

well so much for that!! Reason I asked is that I had bondo at 400-1 to win it...No dice there,but did get some scratch back on zheng +155..

Such is life..

[Fischnasty]

staco wake your ass up and get the fukk into chat.

im on del potro next, but i need some plays for the later matches (roddick/gonzo, henin/wick and safina/kirilenko)

[Stacocakes]

Shit Fisch hopefully you didnt take Del Potro
Both dogs didn't win as expected.Figure I would take my chances though
Kuz lost surprisingly.
Henin won.Very impressive.Didn't watch the match but a win is a win.Definately the player I am most worried about
Still debating whether or not to lay off my Serena outrights.Feel really uneasy about the Stosur match
Gonazlez/Roddick match should be good
Kirilenko moves on.Safina retires.......I'm not even going to go there

[Stacocakes]

Took some Roddick in play.Already hedged it out with the profits all on Roddick.I think he wins this match. Going to just leave the bets as is though.Not going to stay up till 7 am to see the end of this match haha

[Stacocakes]

http://www.tennisrulz.com/players/kirilenko/gallery03/243.jpg

Here is a pic of Kirilenko.Have been in love with her for a couple years. Absolutely amazing

Hopefully you Safina backers were saved by the fact that the first set wasnt completed

Roddick wins the first set.Not going to screw around with the Roddick match.Got some profit if Roddick wins but break even if Gonzo wins.Not going to stay up to see what happens.Hopefully Roddick wins

Any plays for tomorrow guys?

[tailmypicks]

really like the odds for li na, zvonareva and verdasco

[beefcake]

love zvonareva,taking stosur + games..home crowd edge..

[raydog]

wta chalk...jaysus

[EaglesPhan36]

There is something inherently sketchy about that Zvonareva-Azarenka line. With Zvonareva's success here last year and her 4-0 record vs. Azarenka - seems like the books are begging people to jump on Zvonareva at the price.

[Stacocakes]

Agreed Zvonareva looks like a great play to me. I think the reason for her odds are the fact that Azarenka is slighty higher ranked and Zvonareva had some injury concerns. I have already taken Zvonareva at +138

I think Venus wins but I am just passing on her because I don't really feel comfortable backing her at this stage of her career at big odds.

Wozniacki should win as well though Li beat her a week ago in Sydney in three sets. Going to pass on this match though.

I've been looking ahead to this match between Serena and Stosur and it's been worrying me. As I mentioned earlier I have been debating about hedging my Serena futures either right now or after this Stosur match. Serena is 2-1 lifetime vs Stosur but the last match was won by Stosur. I'm also concerned about the crowd being behind Stosur in this match and giving her an extra boost.I am not going to take Stosur because I don't want to be betting against myself here but +521 odds for Stosur are really good. I think that this is going to be a close match and I am worried about it.

Federer is 16-6 vs Hewitt lifetime BUT all six wins by Hewitt came in 2003 or earlier so mean nothing at all. Bottom line is Federer owns Hewitt and the odds of -1050 prove that. No value. No bet

Djokovic and Tsonga odds are way to high.Not bettable

Daveydenko/Verdasco - We are getting to that point in the tournament where Davydenko tends to bow out though this match is probably not the time it will happen. Davy is 6-1 head to head vs Verdasco and is in the best form currently of the remaining players. I like Davy to win this match at -284 but I have long had a rule where I will never back Davy with odds greater then -200 and I am not going to break that today.

So Zvonareva is the play for today and then I am going to sit back and hope my futures both keep winning.Best of luck tonight guys

[Stacocakes]

I just chickened out and bet Serena NOT to win the Aussie Open at -200 so I hedged off my Serena outright to guarantee some good money. Have been feeling nervous about this stosur match and then either Azarenka or Zvonareva in the next round so I am just going to take the safe way out and guarantee some profit at least. Going to keep the Federer outright though for now

[Stacocakes]

Venus loses the first set. She was a -370 favorite I believe so there are some really worried people right now

[EaglesPhan36]

And broken early in the 2nd. This is why you never bet big favorites - well at least why I don't.

[EaglesPhan36]

By the way, Zvonareva has been getting the action as expected. Price has dropped a dime at Pinnacle, +137 to +128.

[EaglesPhan36]

Venus took control of the 2nd, but then got broke to start the 3rd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Typical WTA. Venus breaks right back. On serve.

[Stacocakes]

I think Venus still wins in the end here.I was really hoping that she would be down a break during the changeover (only time to live bet at pinny) and I was going to take venus but now her price is -460 which is unbelievable crazy. Only up 2-1

[Stacocakes]

and 2 bps for venus. Figured she was going to turn this around

[EaglesPhan36]

Ready for some real tennis. Verdasco-Davydenko coming up.

[Stacocakes]

Venus cruising and wins 6-1 in the third

Wozniacki tied at 4 in the first set

[Stacocakes]

I agree.The Davy/Verdasco match will be great

[EaglesPhan36]

Couldn't bring myself to take Verdasco outright although I think that's more worthwhile than Davydenko at -290. Took 1st set over 9.5/10. Verdasco better bring the heat!

[Stacocakes]

haha did you see rafa's interview on eurosport?They asked him what his relationship is with Murray and if they are friends and by the hesitation and rafa's answer you can tell he doesn't like him

[Stacocakes]

wow Woz loses the first set and is already down a break in the second. Glad I didn't bet her now geez.Didn't see that coming

[EaglesPhan36]

Verdasco just got broke. Horrible service game. Has to hope Davydenko gives him a chance on his serve now. Might take Stosur in the 1st set at +320 for fun.

[kingsr]

Have you guys clogged the Aussie open website? I can't get on!

[EaglesPhan36]

God Verdasco sucked hard. His serve died after his first two games. Davydenko didn't impress me much in that set other than doing the obvious - hitting to Fernando's backhand, but I guess letting your opponent suck counts as good strategy.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Was busy watching the NFL playoffs earlier but I see Wozniacki went down.

That kills my parlay. All that sweating on the Roddick match for nothing

[Stacocakes]

Australian Open website seems to be working for me
Still a long way to go in this davy match I believe.
I see all of the big favs left have all been coming down in price big time. I saw Federer at -1200 before and then -1000 a couple hours ago and now -800......hmm big drop

[Collegepays]

Any reason to put any action on Almagro?

[EaglesPhan36]

Nope.

[Stacocakes]

I agree.Almagro is a definate no play

[Stacocakes]

verdasco loses the second set and is down 2-0.I really figured he would put up more of a fight then this. Dont know if he has the fight right now to even make this a match

[Stacocakes]

Verdasco up 4-1 in the third.Very impressed he is still fighting

[Stacocakes]

set verdasco
Errors back and forth in this match. You take it no you take it no you take it
This is just prolonging the time until the serena match
Djokovic cruising