Stacocakes Australian Open Thread

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  • Stacocakes
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 04-10-08
    • 7126

    #421
    Will azarenka blow this match during this game or in the tiebreak
    Comment
    • Stacocakes
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 04-10-08
      • 7126

      #422
      Serena wins the second set and she will go on to win this match. Made some horrible live bets during this match. Just sitting here in disbelief at this point
      Comment
      • Stacocakes
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 04-10-08
        • 7126

        #423
        Serena wins. Not even going to comment on that match
        Comment
        • Collegepays
          SBR High Roller
          • 01-03-10
          • 198

          #424
          lol making a dumb live bet is the worst
          Comment
          • Stacocakes
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-10-08
            • 7126

            #425
            Federer broken twice already in the first set.Amazing start
            Comment
            • Stacocakes
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 04-10-08
              • 7126

              #426
              Federer gets destroyed in the first set by Davydenko. Federer needs to keep the ball in the court if he has any chance here
              Comment
              • Stacocakes
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 04-10-08
                • 7126

                #427
                Federer is totally taking control of this match. All came down to the point in the second set where Davy was up a break and he had a bp to make it 2 breaks up and Federer saved it and then I don't think Davy has even won a game since then. Has been about 8 or 9 games straight for Federer. Confidence is now shot.Can't see Davy coming back from this
                Comment
                • CJ_Gamble
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-07-09
                  • 120

                  #428
                  stacocakes are you playing the djokovic/tsonga match. who would you like there if not
                  Comment
                  • Stacocakes
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 04-10-08
                    • 7126

                    #429
                    Great wins by Tsonga and Federer last night though they sure didn't make it easy and pain free. Live betting the Serena match killed me so the Tsonga and Federer wins only helped reduce the loss. Made some unbelievably bad bets on the Serena match that are going to piss me off for awhile.
                    Henin against Zheng today. Henin is -360 ish and that is just to much for me right now. I think Henin will win but her service game has been so bad this whole tournament that its just not worth sweating out a -360 favorite. Going to pass.
                    The whole thing is shaping up for a Henin/Serena and Roger/ Murray final. The bad thing is that everyone in the world thinks the same thing so the lines they are putting out for these semi-final matches are horrible. Murray as a -410 favorite is definately not worth it. Serena -520 over Na Li. I will pass. Going to stay away from the matches tonight. Only good thing to do would be to maybe parlay Murray/Henin and Serena but I am not sure if it would pay that much. Pinnacle is offline all day so I can't even see what the parlay would pay. Hopefully since they are down and offline they failed to record the crappy live bets I made last night and I am actually up money haha. Doubt it
                    Comment
                    • beefcake
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-26-09
                      • 14029

                      #430
                      yeah parlaying those is the only value...then hedging the last one at super + money...
                      Of course Im rooting for cilic,I think the match is going to be alot closer than people think.
                      I kinda lean under in the Li/williams match due to to both being spent afterlast night and the back to back situation.I think once one player gets the upper hand the other will have nothing left.
                      Comment
                      • Stacocakes
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-10-08
                        • 7126

                        #431
                        Ya a parlay does sound good. I believe all 3 parlayed is around -120 to -130 depending on the book you are at. The late match is Murray so if you hit the first two you could always hedge the parlay as you said with CIlic at +380 or higher.Not to bad.Playing any of these favorites tonight individually is probably not the best idea.
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #432
                          Only dopes wouldn't think Cilic could make it interesting beefcake. Only have to go back to the US Open last year to see what he did to Murray, of course I think Murray is playing a lot better right now, but still - at that price, Cilic + Zheng tonight are the only dogs of the semifinals that I think offer a slightly better than dartboard shot for the price!
                          Comment
                          • Stacocakes
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 04-10-08
                            • 7126

                            #433
                            If Murray looks ahead to the Finals are starts thinking about Federer Cilic could creep up and knock him off but I can't see that happening.
                            Makes no sense how they are arranging these matches. Serena has to play on back to back nights and then Murray gets an extra days rest over Federer before the Finals. Makes no sense. I am sure they could have figured out a way to stagger it better.
                            Comment
                            • Stacocakes
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 04-10-08
                              • 7126

                              #434
                              Anyone surprised by Federer's line over Tsonga of -499? Thought Roger would be a bit lower then that like around -350 or so
                              Comment
                              • EaglesPhan36
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 12-06-06
                                • 71662

                                #435
                                Not surprised by the Fed line personally. Books have over-reacted and been exceedingly stupid with just about every big match that tilted one way or the other. Murray's line set way too high because he whipped Rafa. Same for Federer, especially with all the hype behind Davydenko before this one. Serena Williams' lne is also ridiculous and should be maybe around the same as Henin's, but she's got the name recognition like Federer and the comeback is getting all the hype today.

                                The back end of the schedule in the quarterfinals round has been horrible for several years in my opinion. I've noticed these situations several times.
                                Comment
                                • Stacocakes
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 04-10-08
                                  • 7126

                                  #436
                                  Agree.The lines almost make the matches unbettable unless you think one of the dogs would win.Parlaying all four of the favorites in tennis is only +111.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #437
                                    Playing # of games in both women's matches. Under 19.5 in Serena's (gut feeling) and Over 20.5 in Henin's.
                                    Comment
                                    • Stacocakes
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 04-10-08
                                      • 7126

                                      #438
                                      Looks like a doubles match first so tennis will not start for another 2 and a half hours at least
                                      Comment
                                      • Stacocakes
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 04-10-08
                                        • 7126

                                        #439
                                        Both sound good Eagles.I think Serena destorys Li na and I think Henin will beat Zheng but because she has trouble with her serve there could be 3 sets
                                        Comment
                                        • Stacocakes
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 04-10-08
                                          • 7126

                                          #440
                                          Parlayed Murray/serena and Henin. Needed some action. It pays around -127
                                          Comment
                                          • beefcake
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-26-09
                                            • 14029

                                            #441
                                            Originally posted by Stacocakes
                                            Parlayed Murray/serena and Henin. Needed some action. It pays around -127
                                            Still trying to figure out a way to hedge my cilic future.Didnt lay that much on him so murray doesnt offer much value...
                                            Decisions,decisions....
                                            Comment
                                            • Stacocakes
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 04-10-08
                                              • 7126

                                              #442
                                              hmm I guess it depends how much money you have on Cilic. WHat are the odds that you have?
                                              Shitty thing is that you have the odds of -400 on Murray and if Cilic happens to beat Murray the odds would probably be -500 or maybe a bit more vs Federer.Hard to hedge that. If it isn't for that much the best thing to do might be to see if he can get past Murray and then hedge in the final.
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #443
                                                Take Murray in a specific number of sets if you can. Murray at 3-1 is +250 I think and +560 something for 3-2. That's the only way to hedge that out at this point. You won't get a good shot in the final either if Federer gets there. Tsonga, maybe somewhat - but that will be a crapshoot for oddsmakers if it falls that way.
                                                Comment
                                                • beefcake
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-26-09
                                                  • 14029

                                                  #444
                                                  yeah eagles betting murray sets or just waiting to see if he can beat him Su is the best..
                                                  threw 20 bucks on him at 45-1...so 900 pending...

                                                  Guess i could drink lots of coffee and stay up to watch it and then if cilic is playing well early make a live bet on murray..which 5 dimes will have..
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #445
                                                    Ah shoot man for $20, let it ride!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Stacocakes
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-10-08
                                                      • 7126

                                                      #446
                                                      Ya might as well let it ride. Would be sweet if it hits
                                                      20 mins till serena plays.Hopefully the matches are fast so we don't have to stay up till 5 am
                                                      Comment
                                                      • beefcake
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-26-09
                                                        • 14029

                                                        #447
                                                        Riding!!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Stacocakes
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 04-10-08
                                                          • 7126

                                                          #448
                                                          No match currently in progress and the serena match is already 15 mins late....what is going on here
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Stacocakes
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 04-10-08
                                                            • 7126

                                                            #449
                                                            match finally on
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Stacocakes
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 04-10-08
                                                              • 7126

                                                              #450
                                                              Serena breaks the first game.Good start
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Stacocakes
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 04-10-08
                                                                • 7126

                                                                #451
                                                                need serena to get another break for the set here.Don't think a women has ever held one service break and held it through a whole set before.Would be some type of record
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Stacocakes
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 04-10-08
                                                                  • 7126

                                                                  #452
                                                                  exactly what I was talking about.Knew serena would get broken
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Stacocakes
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 04-10-08
                                                                    • 7126

                                                                    #453
                                                                    Not really a fan of Li Na's tattoo on her chest.....

                                                                    Serena up two mini breaks in the tiebreak.....can she hold....
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Stacocakes
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 04-10-08
                                                                      • 7126

                                                                      #454
                                                                      Another horrible womens match. THink there were 7 points in a row that were mini breaks. Serena takes the first set nonetheless.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Stacocakes
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 04-10-08
                                                                        • 7126

                                                                        #455
                                                                        Serena just walking around the court again.Same thing she did yesterday when down 4-0. Such bad tennis here. So horrible to watch
                                                                        Comment
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