Stacocakes Australian Open Thread

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  • AgiosGerasimos
    Restricted User
    • 01-07-10
    • 152

    #456
    This match is brutal to watch. Wish my book had a line on the doubles so I can go big against the Williams'
    Comment
    • Stacocakes
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 04-10-08
      • 7126

      #457
      Really getting sick of this 30% effort from Serena. What a disgrace this is to the game of tennis and to think these women get paid the same amount as men who play best of five sets and actually try on the court. Just frustrating watching this match.
      Comment
      • Stacocakes
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 04-10-08
        • 7126

        #458
        3 match points missed by Serena. Hope this doesn't come back to haunt her
        Just end this match already
        Comment
        • Stacocakes
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 04-10-08
          • 7126

          #459
          Geez a tiebreak now
          Serena has blown 4 match points
          Hope this doesn't go a third set.Serena is not moving much at all
          Comment
          • Stacocakes
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-10-08
            • 7126

            #460
            Serena finally wins the match. Onto number two with Henin. Wasn't expecting this match to be 2 and a half hours

            Going to be another late night
            Comment
            • Fischnasty
              SBR MVP
              • 02-10-09
              • 1931

              #461
              staco give me some doubles winners.

              and what the **** is up with henin's serve so far?

              lines at betus are way out of control so no plays tonight for me. will try to get some good plays in for the finals and for some of the doubles shit.
              Comment
              • Stacocakes
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 04-10-08
                • 7126

                #462
                I am scared to look at the doubles lines.Haven't even bothered.Am sure they are huge.

                Henins serve is horrible though she did have two aces in the first game. This is going to be a long sloppy match I am sure
                Comment
                • Stacocakes
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 04-10-08
                  • 7126

                  #463
                  Break Henin good girl
                  Comment
                  • Stacocakes
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 04-10-08
                    • 7126

                    #464
                    Henin up 2 breaks. Attacking the slow serve of Zheng.
                    Comment
                    • Stacocakes
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 04-10-08
                      • 7126

                      #465
                      Wow Henin playing really good tennis destroying Zheng. First set done now lets get the second finished up
                      Comment
                      • Stacocakes
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-10-08
                        • 7126

                        #466
                        Geez the murray match is set for 2 and a half hours from now
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #467
                          As per usual, I predict the Serena match under & Henin over an it's opposite. Only thing I know for the final is if Henin is getting a decent underdog price, I'll hit that. Serena looks gassed.
                          Comment
                          • Stacocakes
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 04-10-08
                            • 7126

                            #468
                            Wow just saw the line on pinnacle for the womens final Serena -101 and Henin -107. Wasn't expecting that at all. This has to be the market adjusting the line for Henins great form tonight and Serena's poor uninspired performance. I thought Henin might be a good play at a decent underdog price but didn't really expect this line at all.

                            Any plays for the Murray match?Hit the first two legs of the parlay tonight so just waiting on Murray to win to cash it. Debating if I should A) Let it ride B) hedge it out and guarantee a profit or C) live bet the match and hope Murray is doing well but if he is doing poorly I can hedge out. If Cilic wins the first set Murray would still be the favorite so there is some leeway with this as far as hedging goes.Still trying to think.Wish it wasn't so long until the match.Still another hour
                            Comment
                            • Stacocakes
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 04-10-08
                              • 7126

                              #469
                              Murray playing really bad today.Has no answers for Cilic
                              Murray lost the first set as well
                              Live odds right now still have Cilic as a +105 dog or so. I am going to go another service game by Cilic and if murray continues to do nothing on Cilic's serve I might just hedge out my parlay and walk away with no profit.Better then losing it all on this if Murray loses
                              Comment
                              • Stacocakes
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 04-10-08
                                • 7126

                                #470
                                Huge break Murray.Amazing point
                                Cilic at +157
                                Going to wait to hedge out.Hopefully I won't regret this
                                Comment
                                • Stacocakes
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 04-10-08
                                  • 7126

                                  #471
                                  Cilic is +625 right now with Murray up a break in the third.He has already blown one break in this set. Debating on whether or not to hedge the parlay at this point. Maybe after the set
                                  Comment
                                  • Stacocakes
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 04-10-08
                                    • 7126

                                    #472
                                    Murray wins the third set to go up 2 sets to 1. Hedged out my parlay with +800 Cilic.Time to head to bed haha. Hope you guys made some money on this match
                                    Comment
                                    • emeka
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 01-12-10
                                      • 454

                                      #473
                                      In your opinion wich bet is better: Federer -2,5 at 2.20 or Over 36,5 games at 1.70 ???
                                      Comment
                                      • Stacocakes
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 04-10-08
                                        • 7126

                                        #474
                                        Hmm tough call Emeka. I think Federer will win the match but I expect Tsonga to get at least 1 set. As long as the sets are close a four set match should get you your over 36.5 games. The only thing that worries me about that is that the odds for the over bet are 1.7 and the odds for the Fed handicap are 2.20. If Federer wins it would likely cover the -2.5 handicap. Federer would win the 3 sets and if he loses one set but keeps it really close then he should be able to cover the handicap. Also have to factor in if the match turns out like most of the matches are and the last set ends 6-2 then that is a big help to your handicap and a big detriment to your over bet. With that in mind I would probably take the Fed -2.5 handicap over the over 36.5 games bet.
                                        Best of luck to what you choose Emeka
                                        Comment
                                        • Stacocakes
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 04-10-08
                                          • 7126

                                          #475
                                          Still have the Federer outright at +300. Going to hold onto it for tonights match and hope Federer makes it through to the finals.At that point I will probably hedge it out for some profit.
                                          Big fav parlay hit last night which wasn't surprising.Was really the only play you could do last night unless you wanted to bet the big favs individually.
                                          Federer is -535 and I am just going to pass on that match tonight. Not worth betting at that price in my opinion. Its going to be interesting to see what physical tole the back to back 5 set matches has taken on Tsonga
                                          Comment
                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 71662

                                            #476
                                            Yeah you should get a decent dog price on Murray in the final hopefully to hedge.
                                            Comment
                                            • Stacocakes
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 04-10-08
                                              • 7126

                                              #477
                                              Anyone making any bets on the Federer match tonight besides Emeka?
                                              Comment
                                              • Dr.Gonzo
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-05-09
                                                • 4660

                                                #478
                                                Booked Over 34.5 8/11 & 37.5 11/10

                                                I can see 5/1 Tsonga which is tempting
                                                Comment
                                                • tailmypicks
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-09-09
                                                  • 1005

                                                  #479
                                                  took fed 3-1, fed 3-2 and tsonga ML
                                                  Baba-e-qaum ne farmaya, too chal me aya
                                                  Comment
                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                    • 71662

                                                    #480
                                                    Holding on Federer to hit future vs. future. Pretty simple for me. When I wake up if tennis isn't on at 8:30am ET, favorite won.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Stacocakes
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-10-08
                                                      • 7126

                                                      #481
                                                      Good luck guys. I can also see this match going 4 sets and over games. Not going to make a play on it though.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • raydog
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 11-07-07
                                                        • 6984

                                                        #482
                                                        laying the chalk..fukk it
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Stacocakes
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 04-10-08
                                                          • 7126

                                                          #483
                                                          Williams sisters win the doubles final. Pretty much expected. Those girls they played were winning titles because they didn't have to play the williams sisters. They are just to powerful and good to lose when playing together. I think the match was about 1.25 odds or so for the williams sisters to win.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Fischnasty
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 02-10-09
                                                            • 1931

                                                            #484
                                                            Originally posted by raydog
                                                            laying the chalk..fukk it
                                                            doesnt surprise me one bit. not one little bit.

                                                            staco.... any doubles or mixed doubles leans?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • tbill11
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-15-09
                                                              • 1451

                                                              #485
                                                              Originally posted by Stacocakes
                                                              Anyone making any bets on the Federer match tonight besides Emeka?
                                                              Tsonga +6.5 looks pretty good, but I'm sure that if Federer's on form he'll easily cover. Any thoughts?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Stacocakes
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 04-10-08
                                                                • 7126

                                                                #486
                                                                Federer wins easily over Tsonga. I'm hedging my Federer outright with Murray +145. Just going to sit back and watch these two finals. I lean towards Serena tonight but the match is a complete toss up. Figured Serena would be more of a favorite then the current line of -114. Probably going to be a tight three set match
                                                                Comment
                                                                • smitch124
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 05-19-08
                                                                  • 12566

                                                                  #487
                                                                  Jeez this thing isn't over yet? Its almost time for the start of the 2011 Australian Open
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #488
                                                                    Good luck Staco. Nice picking. I guess I need more majors in tennis. I've actually done nicely picking apart the draw and getting at least one finalist in 3/4 it seems like per year. Of course during the tournament, I pick like crap to make up for getting a futures win.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Stacocakes
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 04-10-08
                                                                      • 7126

                                                                      #489
                                                                      Who do you guys like in the finals tonight?Serena or Henin?
                                                                      Picking outrights this tournament doesn't really mean much .WHen I took Federer to win the tournament I wasn't really going out on a limb or anything haha.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                                        • 71662

                                                                        #490
                                                                        True, like I said to start - the price was way too good to pass, +300 is what I had. Murray at +600.

                                                                        What I don't understand is the price for tonight. Serena's been bought into the firm favorite's role, but everywhere I read on the net - Henin is everyone's pick. So why the price disparity then? Figured Henin the sheer number of supposed Henin backers would have kept this more like a pick 'em. Seems fishy. I'm thinking about betting on both sides in the number of sets to win, IF you can pick the correct number of sets it's an easy profit. I'm thinking hard though because it's a tough call to gauge if this will be straight sets or 3. If you read enough, you find arguments for Serena in straights because of her power and head-2-head against Henin on hard courts (4-1). If you read enough, you can find it for Henin because of Serena's fatigue/injuries, etc. Both players do not like each other too and the lingering thought I have is of Serena losing to Clijsters in the US Open. Does she really want people talking about her losing to two players who came out of retirement and won majors? I'd lean to Serena outright, but am a bit too worried about her condition to probably do it at the current price.
                                                                        Comment
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