September 8th - US OPEN
ATP Doubles: Paes-Stepanek -140
ATP Doubles: Paes-Stepanek -140
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Not totally loving the odds, but loving the play. Paes-Stepps' should really win.Comment -
They were flawless in the last two sets against B-Ry's.Comment -
Well that was domination. Paes-Stepanek cruise to the title. 6-1, 6-3.Comment -
Overall Profit: +7.77
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Looking around SBR, it could be a large, large burial day again. Looks like all the drop-ins and some of the regs are all on Nadal.Comment -
EP, I saw in another thread you were burying someone for thinking their Wawrinka bet vs Murray had more of a chance of winning because of a line move. Curious as to why you put more weight into what others are betting than a line move?Comment -
SBR consensus picks go south more often than not. Surely you must have seen this across the board in all sports in your time here? No more rhyme or reason to it than a line move, but it's quite the voo doo.
I would never make a pick on the other side just because of this, but if I am on a pick - I sure think twice when I see that sort of thing.Comment -
hey ep you use BOL correct? are you seeing the prop bets... so silly. ex.. -
you can take 5 sets for +175
or...
joker 3-2 sets for +500 and nadal 3-2 for +500.
you have any leans with these?Comment -
Yeah I use BOL.
It's about 30 cents different than anywhere else on the "ends in five sets." 5Dimes has Over 4.5 @ +209. And then their 3-2 props are at +500 & +440. It's pretty standard to see that sort of price, I believe.Comment -
You people still don't get it... he never said he thought anyone would get buried because of saying that – he though they might because the line move mostentimes (and indeed always directly) has no impact on the actual outcome whatsoever.Comment -
EP, what do you think of this prop bet: Over 225½ Minutes at -115. Their last title meeting went 4 hours 10 minutes and the final set was 6-1. I think this is way better than over 3.5 sets at -260.Comment -
I didn't mean you were attacking him at all. I mean you said what I quoted.Comment -
Been a fun ride even though I've lost more than I've won this tournament. See you bitches Friday for Davis Cup - ya best be here.
September 9th - US OPEN
Djokovic-Nadal Total Combined Aces Over 11.5 [-140]
*My reasoning - I think Djokovic has to go bigger to avoid getting himself into the holes he has put himself into on his own serve against lesser players where he has been able to save break opps. Rafa will convert more and Djokovic will be in major trouble if he allows too many. Also, Nadal while not overly ace heavy - is placing his serves in better spots where I think he'll be good for a handful if he's hitting his spots. I look back at the Montreal match to see a little of both of this. If it goes four sets, this will be pretty close. Five sets, I would be really surprised if they didn't make it. If someone sweeps it in three, well then good for fukking them.Comment -
Very interesting bet.
Enjoy the match Phanboy, and may all your overs come true!
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Thank you 'Coar and whatever weird in-match bets you make, hit 'em.Comment -
What do you think of Djok +1.5 sets at -145? I think it's good value, but Nadal winning 3-0 or 3-1 would not shock me in the slightest. I am thinking it goes to 5 though.Comment -
I had thought about that one for a bit. Honestly if you think it goes 5, you'd be better served going for the big payout and taking both players to win 3-2.Comment -
I was considering that as well, but I also think there's a good chance that Djokovic could win it in 4 or 5 (maybe he gets an early lead and wins a TB that prevents it from going to 5. I would be very surprised if either player won in straights. I think -145 on Djok to take two sets is worth a shot. Then again, going against Nadal usually comes back to haunt me. BOL on over 11.5, sucks 5D doesn't offer that prop.Comment -
Sounds like you like Djokovic, why not just take him at + money then overall?Comment -
I do like Djokovic, but I just feel like +1.5 sets is the safer play. Last time I went fairly large on Djokovic over Nadal was in the SF of the French Open (the 9-7 loss in the 5th was brutal, not to mention I had a Ferrer future as welll). While I am leaning/hoping Djok wins in 4 or 5, Nadal winning in 5 again seems very possible. Not to mention, I am not sure how much Djokovic will have left if it does go to 5. Nadal's path to get here has been relatively easy, and I am not sure how Djokovic can be 100% after that spectacular match with Wawrinka. I also feel he's fought too hard to lose another Slamto Nadal in 4 or less, so I am just going to hope he can take two sets (a win would just be an added bonus).Comment -
+1.5 sets tend to be the safer play.
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Rafa not helping at all with the aces prop. Thought he'd at least get one per set. Every time I saw him try to go bigger or hit a spot that would have been an ace - he's not able to get the ball in. Djokovic might have to do all the work and this will have to go 5. In other words, slim to no chance.
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I'm still haunted by Djokovic blowing three BP's in the third... I really thought he had that set, damn.Comment -
Should have gone with the under like I was thinking - but seems I always get burned with these fukkers going 5. Not today. Oh well, Davis Cup,Comment -
Overall Profit: +6.37
Davis Cup starts Friday. Looks like you're more likely to find some better matches in the Group playoffs vs. the Semifinals which both look like they may wind up one sided ... altough Serbia vs. Canada will be interesting. Playing on clay, Raonic & Pospisil are at a big disadvantage in singles against Djokovic & Tipsarevic. Interesting to see how Djokovic responds here. I would think he'll go second to get some extra rest which might mean they get him an easier match against Pospisil.Comment -
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Decided to get my dikk wet today in prep for Davis Cup. Make sure you use a splash guard.
September 12th
WTA Quebec City: Mattek-Sands/Tomljanovic Over 20.5 [-110]
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I honestly think that match has a good chance to go over. She might cruise but BMS isn't usually very straightforward.
Good luck!Comment -
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