I'm just gonna sit on the +250 and not add any. Was just a flush reaction to his draw becoming easier by the round. Smarter to invest say in Djokovic @ +170 to have them both at plus money if they play in the Finals. That still looks the most likely match-up unless Murray steps his game up big time in the next two rounds.
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On Paes/Stepanek, too.
Bryan Bros. have been killing it, but I can't pass up better than 3-to-1 on a duo who have proven they can match up with the Bryans.Comment -
I feel like Paes-Stepanek & Errani-Vinci have an equal shot at pulling the upset. I don't think the Williams' sisters have been particularly dominant this tournament and Errani-Vinci are a great team. Paes-Stepanek to me if they serve well, they are in this match the whole way. Bryans usually have a small margin for error with tie breaks often coming into play, so that makes that plus money play an easy one to me.Comment -
Going to a 3rd set. Bryans v. Paes/Stepanek. Bryans were broken twice in the 2nd. If they can break them again in the 3rd at some point, I'd like the chances - but hard to believe that is probably gonna be a big chance.Comment -
Break & Consolidate to Paes-Stepanek in the 3rd. Bring it home a-holes.Comment -
Double break bitches. Bryans are gassed.Comment -
Choke #1. 5-2 trying to close it out. Now 5-3.
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Woomp, there it is! Paes-Stepanek, best hit of the tourney for me @ +330. The split and profit route works as the Williams sisters look to be in control of the other one.Comment -
good call man.Comment -
Well with two breaks in the last set, I took em @ -1600, brians seemed too overpriced...got me sweating tho
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Bryans are always overpriced, so you have to pick your spots. They obviously don't win every title, so if you take some calculated risks against them during the season - you can hit some nice prices.Comment -
Well that is a nice, no sweat match. Wawrinka wins the opening set. +2.5 cashes so long as they finish it out. Still looking at an angle on Djokovic-Youzhny perhaps.Comment -
Hey EP, I took the over 3.5 sets, which looks in danger. Should I hedge? Or you think Andy can win a set?Comment -
I think Murray will win a set, but it's probably gonna be a nut sweater to get that one --- you really kind of have to ride it out this late.Comment -
Wow. That is about as flat as Andy Murray has been in a loooooong time. Good job Stan on getting your first semifinal, your stay shall be short at the hands of Djokovic. Djokovic and Nadal could not have asked for a better set-up. We should get a HIGH QUALITY final if those two take care of business before hand.Comment -
Add...
ATP: Djokovic-Youzhny Under 29 [-104]
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Gonna wait a little bit to book that. Price is drifting to the over at my book, might be able to snag 29.5 without having to pay a lot of juice.Comment -
Alright, well the little drift didn't move much more, so booking the under @ -104 now.Comment -
Under is toast. Djokovic got loose in the 3rd. Youzhny played a bit better also. Oh well, good day still - best of the tourney for me at least.Comment -
Overall Profit: +7.83Comment -
Stan the Man vs the Djoker opened at a total of 37. Im on the over. I think its gonna be a good long match with Stan having a decent chance of winning.Comment -
EP, have you watched the youzhny/djoker match? I just watched a few bits of the match on YT and, well, what's your opinion? I'm just having hard time reading djokovic's game.
Imho, the whole match, nole played somehow...not 100percent...yes, he hits it hard, he wants to win the exchanges, but he is kinda not playing pedal to the metal...I have noticed this pattern earlier especially with nole...he plays hard, but he kinda plays so that he gets more court time, gaining confidence, knowing that he can always play 10-15 percent better. The final set was imho a punishment for losing the third
Youzhny on the other hand played a tennis of his life, one level better than against Hewitt - that was mainly a tactical battle, but here he was keeping up in exchanges with nole, did very well.
As someone already pointed out, djokovic again started hitting the ball flatter as before - but he also uses the higher-spin balls when he needs to, I like that a lot.
Another aspect - his balls rarely land more than half meter before the baseline - that is imho the most important thing that makes him #1...nadal improved in that, too. But watching for example wawrinka, if he's not going for winner, his balls are landing just few feet behind the service line, very easy to pick up...
In my opinion, the finals will be a matter of how much can wawrinka mentally and physically drain djokovic, really looking forward to the finals clash, will be wonderful tennis.Comment -
I think Djokovic balanced experimentation and professionalism in the Youzhny match. I think you could tell when he got up a break in the sets that he was doing a little experimenting, but I also think he was doing a great job of just working Youzhny over to tire his legs out to insure he was going to cruise to the finish line. I mean we honestly won't know how well Djokovic is playing until he feels a bit of pressure. You could see it irritated him in the 3rd when things didn't go his way, but that likely was due more to the fact that he probably felt at that point that he was going to win the match in straights and then Youzhny amped his level up a little and Djokovic took too long to find his next gear and blew the set.
I don't think there's going to be anything like that against Wawrinka. The Australian Open match was probably the best and worst thing to happen to Wawrinka. Best because it helped his confidence for the year against top tier players. Worst because Djokovic should now have a better game plan and won't be surprised. Of course, it could just be Wawrinka has the game overall to match him a bit more now - but he's going to have to prove he an do it again.
Djokovic won't make the mistakes Murray made yesterday and be too passive. This is the spot where first timers can often lock up and not show their best tennis. Making a Slam semi is a big deal, one step away from the prize and often guys freeze in the spotlight. I think Gasquet is more likely to fall into that trap, but Wawrinka is going to need to start quick like he did in Australia by taking that first set. Being able to front run with a lead does wonders for your confidence. I'll have to look more at this one, but just my thoughts off the cuff.Comment -
September 7th - US OPEN
Nadal-Gasquet Under 29 [-106]
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This avatar is much more befitting and exudes confidence.Comment -
LoL. Yeah I found it and had to use it.Comment -
What is that?Comment -
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Oh... I thought it was a squirrel!Comment -
Well Rafa boned this under by blowing the quick break lead in the 2nd. Probably need a bagel in the 3rd if he can even win the 2nd. So be it.Comment -
Well one fudgin' set blew the underoo. Nadal was in control pretty much the entire match, never felt like Gasman was going to push him enough. He did what he needed to do to get through quick and in good shape. I'm holding a Rafa future @ +250, so I won't be playing a side. Total or prop is likely.
Not sure I really like the Monday Final for this as it means I have to sneak in peeks at work instead of being home to watch it.Comment -
I hear ya EP. My line of work requires me to work at various hours. I will probably be able to watch the first set or two, but I might have to work a little that evening and be forced to DVR the ending.
A Sunday final sucks if you're a big NFL guy. I'm not as big a football fan as most Murr-uh-kuns, but I understand why CBS and the USTA wanted to push final this to Monday -- in addition to the concerns about rain, the first round lasting three days, semifinals on Saturday, etc.
Not sure when you get off work, but if you can DVR it, just make sure you avoid all contact with humans/sports websites/social media between the start of the match and when you get home and try to watch it from the beginning. If you FFW through commercials and dead spots between points, you can probably catch up to the live broadcast quickly ... Nadal/Djoker is bound to go at least four sets (guess I just jinxed it to finish in three), so the DVRing option makes it a more compact match to watch.
Still, I understand the idea behind wanting to watch it live and chat on SBR and such ... makes it a better experience IMO. And unlike me, you're not living alone, so I can also understand that getting off work doesn't necessarily mean you're free to just sit down and watch the entire match on DVR.
Wonder what the over/under on the match duration will be? Will books dare to set a very high number?Comment -
I am too much of a junkie not to follow the scoreboard at least at work, so DVR-ing I might do just to actually watch it. I will probably just have the live feed running and flip over to it when I can at work. I watched a bit of the Hewitt-Youzhny match during the week that way.
Oh God, thanks for bringing that time of the match one back up ... now I can fume about that one minute difference from the last one I lost betting that.Comment -
Overall Profit: +6.77Comment
