EP36's Super Serial Fuzzy Balls of Fury

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-29-13, 11:32 PM

October 30th
ATP Paris: Haas -150
ATP Paris: Mahut +115

**Noleafclover** · 10-30-13, 12:23 AM

Seems like everyone has an opinion on Mahut, Simon, makes it a big ole pass. I like Fognini +195 v Dimitrov, any thoughts?

Late to the party about bet sizing, I tend to agree bet sizes shouldn't vary wildly, mostly stick to 1-2u, but I will go as low as .5u on some plays, and have taken 1 3u play this year - which is 10% of BR for me (Machida inside the distance against munoz -115)... Think there are exceptions that prove the rule, as Machida proved all over Munoz' forehead early in the first round. If my edge is that big, I'll "POUND."

**fitguy67** · 10-30-13, 01:50 AM

NoLeaf, u won't get yourself into any "risk of ruin" hot-water with the approach you just described...the odd double-calibre, and super-rare triple-calibre bullet never killed anybody's account as long as they are genuinely due to the perceived edge on the play itself...and not influenced at all by how much you NEED to get back due to the results of previous plays. A lot of "disguised chasing" takes place when a capper suddenly and conveniently gets more "confident" in the plays coming up when suffering a bad run...and if the run continues, the "confidence" magically magnifies to whatever is NEEDed. Having a cap at something like 3u (and the discipline to apply it objectively) seems very workable.

BTW, nice hit on the Machida prop...i think he'll be brilliant as a MW (i have heard it was only his friendship with Anderson that kept him up at LHW...Machida's one of my favorite fighters...and that Phil Davis decision was bullshit)

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-30-13, 02:06 PM

Overall Profit: +4.51

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-30-13, 11:44 PM

October 31st
ATP Paris: Raonic -140
ATP Paris Parlay: Wawrinka + Federer [+114]

**TheMLBKing** · 10-31-13, 12:24 AM

EP I've been selectively tailing you lately and it hasnt been working out. Hope Wawa turns that around.

**matt1216** · 10-31-13, 12:45 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

October 31st
ATP Paris: Raonic -140
ATP Paris Parlay: Wawrinka + Federer [+114]

Good luck EP. I think Berdych/Raonic goes the distance. Wawa to come thru. Federer to beat kohl in 3 sets.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-31-13, 09:58 AM

Getting a slight discount @ -130 now for Raonic.

**lucasdawg** · 10-31-13, 10:16 AM

bol EP took raonic 2-1 and gasquet 2-1

**Hangoverblack** · 10-31-13, 10:33 AM

It's not easy laying chalk on Raonic vs a top player.

feels like I'm bucking in for a Halloween Hay Ride

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-31-13, 12:27 PM

Typical pattern. Guy blows several shots in a TB, got gifted some shots to win the TB, ultimately blows it and then has no composure in his 1st service game. So I'll just resign myself to splitting these two picks. I'm not sure who blew more opps in that TB, but obviously Milos won the race at the end ... not to mention the three early break points in the 1st set. Meh.

**poet** · 10-31-13, 02:04 PM

Milos was clutch until he was serving for the set. Then the nerves got to him. Byrdy was nerves through most of that tie-break.

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-31-13, 02:06 PM

Overall Profit: +4.35

**EaglesPhan36** · 10-31-13, 10:32 PM

November 1st
ATP Paris: Wawrinka +390
ATP Paris: Federer +105

**Stokes36** · 10-31-13, 11:01 PM

Pretty gutsy call there, man. Wawa hasn't beaten Djoker in 7 years. lol. BOL! I'm staying away from this match now.

**Nyjrkm06** · 11-01-13, 12:24 AM

BOL love the picks tn

**matt1216** · 11-01-13, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

November 1st
ATP Paris: Wawrinka +390
ATP Paris: Federer +105

Good luck man. Without looking I was on the same side as you.

**STAY STRONG** · 11-01-13, 02:02 AM

Really like the GOAT play. Hate seeing you on Stan the Man...think Nole wins in two tight sets.

**Tsonga** · 11-01-13, 06:36 AM

Worth a try.. Go Swiss! My futures would look better with those 2 winning.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-13, 08:47 AM

Originally posted by STAY STRONG

Really like the GOAT play. Hate seeing you on Stan the Man...think Nole wins in two tight sets.

He may get killed in both sets, seeing as he dropped the opener 6-1 ... but the price was insane. I'd pay -500 for Nadal over Gasquet, but Wawrinka has proven this year that he can stay with Djokovic.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-13, 11:21 AM

Have the feeling Roger hiccups 1st and loses this. Really felt he needed to win in two. Delpo seems to have more to him now that he won that 2nd set.

**lucullus** · 11-01-13, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Have the feeling Roger hiccups 1st and loses this. Really felt he needed to win in two. Delpo seems to have more to him now that he won that 2nd set.

A common trend of his, I regret not making a large wager on the OVER

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-13, 11:43 AM

That's a really nice win for Rog.

**poet** · 11-01-13, 11:49 AM

Stan was a no show that first set. I took the over 21.5 and lost. He has no right to be in the top ten, way too uneven, effort and motivation wise.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-13, 12:25 PM

Rankings system has always been a joke, but I mean who are you going to say "deserves" a Top 10 spot? Outside of Rafa and Djokovic, I've always said it - motivation for most is usually a question mark at different times during the season.

It's hard to judge people here at the end of the season too. Guys have been worn down from months of travel and play, takes a special kind of animal to be strong at this time of year.

**Minnesota Niice** · 11-01-13, 12:46 PM

What do you think about Nadal in straight sets? Gas man has only taken a set in 3 out of the 11 matches. And of course he's 0-11 against him..

Oh yea last 6 in a row he hasn't won a set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-01-13, 02:12 PM

Sorry was away. I would have agreed that would be the most likely outcome in that one.

**Hardcoar** · 11-01-13, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by eaglesphan36

sorry was away. I would have agreed that would be the most likely outcome in that one.

y u so pro?

**matt1216** · 11-01-13, 02:32 PM

Ferrer to win first set

Berdych will have to adjust from raonic

**Minnesota Niice** · 11-01-13, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Sorry was away. I would have agreed that would be the most likely outcome in that one.

No problem. Thanks man

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-07-13, 08:21 AM

Overall Profit: +4.40

November 7th
ATP London: Federer-Gasquet Over 22 [-125]

**poet** · 11-07-13, 11:34 AM

I, and everybody else, was on the over on this one EP. A sure sign that it was doomed. Gascan mailed this one in.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-07-13, 11:45 AM

Yeah. I really wasn't planning on playing much this week, but this one I liked. Oh well. Probably done till next year.