EP36's Super Serial Fuzzy Balls of Fury

[jjgold]

Don't forget to factor in tiredness
Many guys are burnt out this time of year

Find hungry guys although there are too many on the tour

Good luck to all

[EaglesPhan36]

Do you honestly think that line on Benneteau is good??
:O

Yep.

[Hardcoar]

That really surprises me. I agree he stands a fair chance at any rate. Best of luck!

[EaglesPhan36]

Nishikori looked to be on empty last week. Even his 1st round win & scoreline was not reflective of how poorly he played. I don't think Nishikori is near 100% fit currently, so I gladly go with Benny today.

[Regul8er]

Be careful EagleHead......I wouldnt go too heavy.
Benneteau is on my blacklist of "flakes"

[Hardcoar]

Phanboy doesn't go heavy. He isn't O.G.

[Regul8er]

Yes, I always consult my flake list. Guys get 1 free pass, but once they get me twice on iffy behavior, they are labelled as "flakes"

I have more French on the flake list then any other country. Benneteau, Chardy and Simon to name a few.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nishikori should be on the flake list already too, especially as the season wears on. I don't have a problem win or lose with who I took. If he loses, he loses. If he wins, he wins.

And I bet the same amount of all of these bets, doing otherwise in tennis is a bankroll killer over the long haul.

[Regul8er]

I havent first hand been on any Nishikori flakeouts! But if I have 1 guy on my list, I pass on the match altogether, regardless of opponent.

[EaglesPhan36]

That's Jeremy Chardy for me.

[Regul8er]

YUP....look at post #2667....I would not touch this guy with a 14 foot pole.

[EaglesPhan36]

I get irritated because I still pick in my mind on some of his matches and the ones I do not actually play, more often than not - I pick correct. But I know in my heart if I played it with real $, it would lose. Dolgopolov is another, although I don't even cap his matches. I skip him. That guy is harder to predict than the weather.

[Hardcoar]

I get irritated because I still pick in my mind on some of his matches and the ones I do not actually play, more often than not - I pick correct. But I know in my heart if I played it with real $, it would lose. Dolgopolov is another, although I don't even cap his matches. I skip him. That guy is harder to predict than the weather.

That is so true... the weather part.

[EaglesPhan36]

You can mark this for posterity also, my prediction is Nishikori will either withdraw before playing Tsonga or retire during the match - further irritating me and also setting JWT up to push into the ATP Finals.

[Hardcoar]

Irritating you because he won the previous match in such convincing fashion?

[fitguy67]

Nishikori should be on the flake list already too, especially as the season wears on. I don't have a problem win or lose with who I took. If he loses, he loses. If he wins, he wins.

And I bet the same amount of all of these bets, doing otherwise in tennis is a bankroll killer over the long haul.

equally valid for all sports...as changing bet-size has no effect at all on expected growth...what it does do--in direct proportion to the severity of its application--is magnify variance...both the upswings (which makes us feel rich and clever when it happens) and the downswings (which makes us feel victimized by "bad luck" when it happens...AND kills the account balance of the clever-but-unlucky one who inevitably reloads and repeats the process ad infinitum)...

the habit of "pounding" now=the necessity of reloading (while bitching about your bad luck) far sooner than you'd otherwise have to...

mild bet-size variance, where the max is no more than double the min is fine as it only mildly magnifies variance...eg. almost all of HC's bet-sizes lie between 5units and 10units, which might seem a lot, but mathematically it's the equivalent of moving from a min of 1unit to a max of 2 units in five small 0.2-unit jumps...

but beware a base of 1unit/star...that jumps by full units/stars...(doubling, tripling, quadrupling, etc...with each seemingly-small step)...these are the variance-magnifiers/bankroll-busters EP wisely steers clear of

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah took many a busted bankroll to learn. My base problem is running into an ice cold streak that wipes out a week or two of decent profit making.

[Hardcoar]

Yeah it happens... yeah it sucks! Nothing you can do about it in the end though. It's all down to the law of averages.

[Hardcoar]

equally valid for all sports...as changing bet-size has no effect at all on expected growth...what it does do--in direct proportion to the severity of its application--is magnify variance...both the upswings (which makes us feel rich and clever when it happens) and the downswings (which makes us feel victimized by "bad luck" when it happens...AND kills the account balance of the clever-but-unlucky one who inevitably reloads and repeats the process ad infinitum)...

the habit of "pounding" now=the necessity of reloading (while bitching about your bad luck) far sooner than you'd otherwise have to...

mild bet-size variance, where the max is no more than double the min is fine as it only mildly magnifies variance...eg. almost all of HC's bet-sizes lie between 5units and 10units, which might seem a lot, but mathematically it's the equivalent of moving from a min of 1unit to a max of 2 units in five small 0.2-unit jumps...

but beware a base of 1unit/star...that jumps by full units/stars...(doubling, tripling, quadrupling, etc...with each seemingly-small step)...these are the variance-magnifiers/bankroll-busters EP wisely steers clear of

Yeah my units are fuxxed up because I always bet fairly big since I feel good about the picks I make. I need to restrain myself in a far better way and make fewer bets as well as bet less.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +5.76

1-1 on a Monday. I'll take that since I have been starting in bigger holes early in the week.

[Hardcoar]

Oh yeah... your other shit actually won.

Congrat's!

[EaglesPhan36]

October 29th
ATP Paris: Llodra +150
ATP Paris: Pyzysienzy +175

*Going to see how these fare before deciding on anything else. Pending

[matt1216]

October 29th
ATP Paris: Llodra +150
ATP Paris: Pyzysienzy +175

*Going to see how these fare before deciding on anything else. Pending

Do you think that Dolgopolov line will get smashed by the public ?? We know he's 10 times better than his opponent when he's on

[fitguy67]

matt, look up a few posts (#1272), where EP talks about how impossible it is to guage if/when Dolgo will be "on"

[Minnesota Niice]

What's your reasoning behind backing Llodra in this spot if you don't mind me asking..

[Minnesota Niice]

Nvm

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

nice get with Pyzysienzy!

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding...
ATP Paris: Dodig -150

[matt1216]

matt, look up a few posts (#1272), where EP talks about how impossible it is to guage if/when Dolgo will be "on"

Dude, I was being sarcastic lol..... It wasn't hard to figure out people would be pounding Dolgopolov at almost + money.

[EaglesPhan36]

I actually would have thought the opposite. Mahut is still a name because of the Isner match and then playing in France, I would have thought that side would have been backed more in that match. If I bet Dolgo matches, that's where I would have gone ... but then he probably would have shown up as the Terminator.

[EaglesPhan36]

Can't resist as my gut keeps burping to tell me to trust the gas down there and not the Gasman.

Adding...
ATP Paris: Verdasco +225 *Risking 0.5 unit

[matt1216]

Can't resist as my gut keeps burping to tell me to trust the gas down there and not the Gasman.

Adding...
ATP Paris: Verdasco +225 *Risking 0.5 unit

man, decent price. Verdasco can beat almost anybody when he's on. His coach and team looked pumped for him to do well here.



Gl

[lucasdawg]

tailed on dodig, lucky he ended it before he was letting roger back into it ... was getting worried abit there

[EaglesPhan36]

Let's see how tight Gascan gets in the 3rd. 'Nando tried to give away the 2nd set, but Frogface couldn't take it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +7.01

Decent day even with 'Nando about to crater in the 3rd after a pretty decent fight.