EP36's Super Serial Fuzzy Balls of Fury

[Hardcoar]

Turn the water a brown yellow and we're golden!

[EaglesPhan36]

Fukked by a retirement.

[EaglesPhan36]

September 13th - DAVIS CUP
Stepanek Total Games Won Over 20.5 [-120]

[16johnnymac]

September 13th - DAVIS CUP
Stepanek Total Games Won Over 20.5 [-120]

Nice play my book didn't offer this play I took -220 Stepanek what's your thoughts a winner?
I hope good luck today

Jmac

[EaglesPhan36]

I expect Stepanek will win in the end, but Monaco has proven tough in indoor hard courts before. He had some unexpected runs on the surface last Fall. I thought he would win a set in this one perhaps, but was not confident in an over because of some potentially lopsided 6-3, 6-4 sets.

Of course the problem is Monaco can go into turbo tank mode pretty quick which is what is happening here. He had the 1st set in his favor and choked his break back. He's about to go down a break in the 2nd it appears, so I may be hard pressed to get that 4th set I will need for this.

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding...

Tipsarevic +145

[EaglesPhan36]

Ick. Really starting to think about adding Monaco to my DNB list. Seem to be on the wrong side with him quite a bit too.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pretty much gave up at this point. Nice effort Pico. Should have gone under games on him, but was afraid he'd win a set and make it close. Merp.

[EaglesPhan36]

On the wrong side of another choke. Yay. Raonic chokes at the US Open, I lose. Today he doesn't, I lose.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +3.72

Probably out till the ATP tourneys kick in on Monday. Fuggin Mr.T

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP St.Petersburg
Back to the 250s which means that motivation and post US Open hangover is something you should be mindful of this week. There are some "names" here this week, including home-standing Russian, Mikhail Youzhny who is the 2nd seed. Fognini is the top seed with Tipsarevic and another Russian, Dmitry Tursunov rounding out the top four. Youzhny would be one to watch as he has made the semifinals or better in three straight years. Tursunov would be a little bit of a question mark. Indoor hard courts have not been a big strength in the last few years and he did injure his shoulder to some extent at the US Open. Facing Baghdatis in the opener also makes him an iffy proposition

FOGNINI QUARTER
This one looks absolutely wide open from top to bottom. Fognini made the Final last year, but this surface has been brutal to him overall. The draw is not particularly tough for him to make the semis, but motivation for Fognini at these 250s is a crapshoot. Ramos is one to watch here. He's a tad underestimated on hard courts IMO. Fitness should be less of an issue with the controlled environment over the conditions that wore him down against Tomic at the US Open. Pryzsiezny is no slouch on this surface and that's Ramos' first-up. Berankis-Rosol is a neat little match-up in the 1st round of wasted talent.

TIPSAREVIC QUARTER
Tipsarevic is definitely finding his form as the season winds down. The question here is how much will he have left after Davis Cup play this past weekend? His quarter has some intriguing guys like Zopp, Gulbis, Mannarino and Donskoy. I think any of those guys could come through here if Tipsarevic doesn't care to be here. Gulbis could have a slight edge here having played on the surface in Davis Cup play over the weekend. If his serve is stout, I like him to emerge from from this quarter.

TURSUNOV QUARTER
Tursunov-Baghdatis is a great opener. Baggy played pretty well in the US Open, pushing Wawrinka in four sets with two of those sets going to tie breaks. This is a good surface for him, so if Tursunov is hurting any - he should exploit that for the upset. Verdasco-Stakhovsky is the other intriguing first rounder on the top of this quarter. Both are switching surfaces after Davis Cup play. Staks has the chops for an upset with Verdasco not showing anything special on this surface.

YOUZHNY QUARTER
Youzhny has a good draw to win two quick ones. Istomin is the seed in the top part of this quarter and should be expected to be the roadblock for Youzhny in the quarters. This one almost looks too straight forward to wind up Youzhny vs. Istomin, but that's the way it looks like it should shake out.

[EaglesPhan36]

September 16th
ATP Metz: Querrey-Karlovic Over 25.5 [-118]
ATP St.Petersburg: Struff +110

[EaglesPhan36]

September 17th
ATP St.Petersburg: Groth +4 [-133]
ATP St.Petersburg: Zopp +104

[davopnz]

do you think groth wins?

[Hardcoar]

*HINT* He would have bet on the ML at above @ evens if he thought he will win *HINT*

Essentially it seems fair to assume he believes he might win, however.

[fitguy67]

do you think groth wins?

look up a few inches to the last section of post #2321 (Youzhny quarter)...also the odds themselves should help guide you safely away from putting anything more than flier-money faith on any massive gift that you perceive the books may have for us in groth

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...
ATP Metz: Lacko -115

[NicAtNight]

Thoughts on chardy?

[ParlayininHTown]

Add...
ATP Metz: Lacko -115

Thanks for another winner, EP. You killed it today, and I'm sure you never gave one fukking iota about any of it.

SBR won't let me dish out two more points at the moment.

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...
ATP Metz: Sijsling +125

[alpinepetey]

One break the entire Sijsling matchh. Tough 3rd set tie break to lose.

[GoBlue77]

i had sijsling +1.5 sets. i would suggest however fading Mathieu in the next match, dude is on fumes and has said his body is ailing him, he wont win straight sets and maybe not the next match. have to see who he plays first but he is on auto fade now

[EaglesPhan36]

Querrey. Price will probably suck though. Sijsling had two MPs in the 3rd, can't ask for much more. Almost identical for PHM with the Petange Challenger Final loss to Kamke and then here the week after. Given PHM's retirement history, would not shock me to see that against Querrey or a straight withdrawal.

[ParlayininHTown]

I anticipate a walkover after he somehow battled through today, but maybe playing in France makes him feel pressure to trot out on to the court and stay out there until Querrey has finished his beatdown.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +5.76

[EaglesPhan36]

September 18th
ATP Metz: Mahut-Mayer Over 23 [-101]
ATP St.Petersburg: Lorenzi +109
ATP St.Petersburg: Stakhovsky +200

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll bite, but expect a square beatdown.

Add...
ATP Metz: Querrey -160

[EaglesPhan36]

OMG, that was beautiful. Better proof that line moves in tennis mean shit. Querrey was -230 when I saw the line last night. We knew PHM was exhausted and the line still moved in his favor. Don't trust a line move kids, they are bullshit!

[poet]

OMG, that was beautiful. Better proof that line moves in tennis mean shit. Querrey was -230 when I saw the line last night. We knew PHM was exhausted and the line still moved in his favor. Don't trust a line move kids, they are bullshit!

EP, you got paid for that play?

[EaglesPhan36]

Yep. One set is all ya need.

[GoBlue77]

Easy cash babyyyyyy...thanks for the retirement PHM

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall Profit: +7.76

Besides trying to make the Sousa-Lorenzi match too complicated by overthinking Sousa's heavy Davis Cup schedule, not a bad day at all.

[poet]

Overall Profit: +7.76

Besides trying to make the Sousa-Lorenzi match too complicated by overthinking Sousa's heavy Davis Cup schedule, not a bad day at all.

And having a more fitting avatar doesn't hurt either.

[EaglesPhan36]

September 19th
ATP Metz: Becker-Olivetti Over 24.5 [-114]
ATP St.Petersburg: Tursunov-Kravchuk Over 21 [-113]

[fitguy67]

on'em both EP, and appreciating BOL for tennis lines more each day