CFL 2018 Thread

[danshan11]

here is my SBR picks sheet you can see my horrible picks anytime on my google sheet everything is time stamped in history so you can see I dont manipulate it, been bad so far but it takes alot more than 90 games to give me any insight of how I am doing, I am up 20 + on WNBA for the season and about 4 units on CFL for the season(not exact) and my baseball I am down 6 units for the year!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14fWTAdsOeDJMzOfAeA8SdF_ecn1j8hXRwztGtcNiw-4/edit?usp=sharing

that is since I started doing SBR about a month ago, any questions just ask! I update it as soon as I bet

[danshan11]

most people over value an injury but the 53 was the kicker that made me bet since I had 49.5, 52.5 would have been a no bet!

[danshan11]

the real problem with CFL winning is
A the lines dont move enough to really see any +EV
B the margin is super high on CFL plays at pinnacle and others
those things make it hard to profit on the CFL but not impossible

[KVB]

Yeah, one thing about CFL is the limited number of games each week, but there are 21 weeks.

A few years and there is ok data, the league hasn't changed that much over the last few years, in general.

[danshan11]

I think that Alouettes game shoudl close around 50 but in reality it will probably close around 52 when imho it should close closer to 49 but it is what it is, remember not a ton of sharp money in the CFL, reason (limits low, not enough games to focus on, and hard to get good info on players and teams, and super high margins) so the lines are effecient but not nearly NFL effecient.

[KVB]

Plenty of sharp money in the CFL, those that can do.

It's one reason we get so much line movement, it's easy to stuff the limits across the market. Sometimes the books show, sometimes they don't.

The market itself creates inefficiencies all the time, it's part of the give and take nature of the markets.

[danshan11]

this right here shows you the CFL lines are not NFL effecient

CFL

400-480-19 (-0.49, 45.5%)

NFL

3433-3550-198 (0.14, 49.2%)

as you can see the nfl is a coin flip ATS and CFL is not which means the lines are not effecient so just beating the line helps but it is not all there is to beating the CFL for profit, kinda unique really! BUt folks dont get your hopes up that it is easy, CFL is tough for the same reasons it is not effecient.

[danshan11]

Plenty of sharp money in the CFL, those that can do.

It's one reason we get so much line movement, it's easy to stuff the limits across the market. Sometimes the books show, sometimes they don't.

The market itself creates inefficiencies all the time, it's part of the give and take nature of the markets.

We all know I am at best a NERF no where near sharp so I can just look at these numbers and make judgements but I could easily be wrong and full on NERF!

[KVB]

Dan turn pro, if you'd like, before you get to 3k in points or you will lose anything over 3K.

I turned pro at 3K and gave to Angelman Foundation.

It's a team effort here, be nice to see another guy jump on board.

[danshan11]

I would say for someone who follows the CFL and knows tons about the rosters and HFA and other factors that a modeler like me dont know, it could be a very tappable market!

[danshan11]

the term pro and me should not be used in the same sentence, LOL

[KVB]

Yeah, CFL and WNBA can be played, but it's not the same as the bigger leagues.

It's tough to run a contrarian type fund (like with MLB) with something like WNBA because we need good volume to get advantageous thresholds.

But the WNBA can be capped.

[danshan11]

WNBA again is a tuneup for the NBA for my model, it catches any flaws in the process cheap and then I go balls deep on the NBA once I trust the WNBA version of my model. I believe I will have an even better NBA season because of how well the WNBA model did. I am seeing huge line value in the WNBA this season and a really good wl record

[Hngkng]

Interesting event based play.

Seeing the Pinny price change towards the Under now.

Does CFL have NFL like rules in place where there is a minimum time before coming back?

Or can Johnny Football join in at the last minute?

46 man roster must be set 24 hours before a game.
2 scratches must be done 1 hour before kickoff to make it a 44 man roster.

Montreal can put him on the 46, then scratch him an hour before the game. But if he’s not on the 46, he can’t play.

Antonio Pipkin taking first team reps with Montreal today. These guys have a new QB every two weeks.

[KVB]

But is there a concussion protocol rule?

Like if they say he has symptoms, he has to sit for 7 days no matter what.

Is there that type of rule? I can't remember there being one in CFL.

[Hngkng]

But is there a concussion protocol rule?

Like if they say he has symptoms, he has to sit for 7 days no matter what.

Is there that type of rule? I can't remember there being one in CFL.

No, basically once the medical says he’s ok. No set days.

[danshan11]

I think that Alouettes game shoudl close around 50 but in reality it will probably close around 52 when imho it should close closer to 49 but it is what it is, remember not a ton of sharp money in the CFL, reason (limits low, not enough games to focus on, and hard to get good info on players and teams, and super high margins) so the lines are effecient but not nearly NFL effecient.

its creeping down to the 51 area, I hope it gets down more!

[Hngkng]

Tomorrow’s game between the Eskies and Als might be postponed depending on the smoke from the wildfires

[danshan11]

I hope they play my line value is looking good right now and that money has been sitting there for days already!

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up the following plays...

Winnipeg Blue Bombers -5.5 (-110) over Ottawa Redblacks…

The sharp forecast has Winnipeg winning with 27 or 28 points to Ottawa’s 20 points. The stacking forecast shows Winnipeg winning with 33 or 34 points to Ottawa’s 17 points. The public gauge shows a closer game with Winnipeg winning 30-26.

Less sophisticated methods show Winnipeg winning by about 10 points in a about a 50 point game.

The line opened with Winnipeg -5.5 and has traded to -6.5 and is pressing 7, towards the forecasts but away from the gauge. The Total opened at 53.5 and has moved to 54.5 pressing 55 is some places.

The public gauge disagrees with the forecasts here for both the side and the Total. As anticipated, we are starting to see some divergence as the season matures between these numbers. Notice we see it in the game following all the numbers lining up on Ottawa last week, but failing against the spread.

For that Total I can see a public thirst with these teams, combined with market feeling pressure to go over after last week’s results, as well as some market groups that may be emboldened after last week. This lends to the higher open as well as lines up with what I see on the back end as heavy ticket and money pressure on the Over.

I would not counter the forecast with an Over here but don’t have enough yet to press the forecast with an Under. I think it’s best to let this first game stack or take down what Total money I mentioned at the end of last week. Remember, last week the sharp forecast was successful in all three Totals against the closing line.

Because it was not so clean cut, and there was muddied water with the tight openers with a push in the first game, and the sharp forecast being close to the line in the third game, our indications our not convincing.

When it comes to the spread, from the back end side, I can see the public is on Winnipeg, but the money tends toward Ottawa. This implies, at this early stage, that sharp money disagrees with the public but this is in exact contrast to the numbers posted above, where there is disagreement, but in the other direction.

Let’s keep an eye on these conditions; this is new information from the back end showing us something in the thread.

I am passing on any bold play for the spread here. When it comes to the moneyline, also from these early reports, I can see that tickets are on Ottawa to win, but the money disagrees. I won’t read too much into this with this volume and this size of moneyline.

Remember, the market participants seek that Over, in a strong fashion, but that doesn’t mean they can’t get it. Last week we saw some very strong contrarian style Under plays pay, consecutively. Never forget that this is a market of give and take. After winning with the first Total last week, I think I’ll sit on the sidelines until this little bubble sorts itself out.

Good Luck whatever you play.

[danshan11]

what is "a sharp forecast" what does that mean?

[KVB]

The sharp forecast is just that, a sharp forecast. It will beat the closing line, has every game this year, but that aberration could be because I post the opening plays and these markets aren't very liquid.

It is designed to beat the market against the spread and Totals (although I have been warning about the Total performance this year, there is evidence it is getting stronger) and is designed to predict the moneyline, particularly upsets, in a very narrow range, of about 1/3rd of the time, all the time. It doesn't go far from center, when it comes to predicting upsets. It is a gauge to follow in terms of the market.

The sharp forecast has beaten the spread considerably the last three years and was shared on SBR. Let's see if it can continue to do so.

One thing about the sharp forecast is that it is dynamic, not static. It does not rely on static, historical black box type models as a sole source of prediction. It takes into account the current market environment and can often vary from the market quite a bit, revealing inefficiencies.

The stacking percentages forecast does just that. It stacks percentages and angles to develop an edge using static historical data. It is designed to beat the market but also designed to have less of an average line error than the books themselves. As we get more games, we will test these results.

The non-predictive public gauge is designed to assess the public sentiment at the time. It involves relatively common ratings as well as taking into account simple forecasting methods that may often times be subject to a recency bias, to it's detriment.

I believe both the sharp and stacking forecasts will be profitably this year against the spreads and have no reason to vary from that prediction.

We will see.

[danshan11]

yeah but what is it some form of predictive model, a system what is it? I know you cant share the factors or weight but just in general what is it?

[Hngkng]

Im going to be on Ottawa +6.5

[KVB]

Yeah, it's a forecast of the game.

In the end it would like to predict reality, the actual final scores, better than the line the bookmaker is forced to hang.

That goes back to line error, but note I didn't mention line error so much with the sharp forecast, just the stacking.

The sharp forecast is predictive, without a doubt, so is the stacking forecast.

They are also there to help us understand why the line opens where it opens and moves to where it closes.

If you can understand that, you will go a long way towards long term profit.

[KVB]

Im going to be on Ottawa +6.5

Good Luck, I'm already on the favorite.

Maybe we get a 6 point game, rewarding both the early market hitters and those on the other side of the move.

[Coolcanuck79]

I am on under 56 and tempted to take Ottawa +7 but may hold off for a +10 or better live if they go down early.

[danshan11]

I just try and beat the closing line, beating the closing line method is long term profitable for sure. I just dont understand really how lots of those things work, sorry if my being naive sounds insulting, not my intent

[KVB]

I just try and beat the closing line, beating the closing line method is long term profitable for sure. I just dont understand really how lots of those things work, sorry if my being naive sounds insulting, not my intent

No bro, your tone is fine. It's all good.

Both forecasts use stats that are created on the field of play.

The sharp forecast can be made the moment games are finished. It doesn't care who is playing the game. It is all noise. The players come and go, the sharp forecast is longer term, season to season while also taking into account the current environment.

It can be better this way because stats used from databases from years ago don't account for the here and now.

That said, if there is an injury to a major player, like the QB, the sharp forecast could pass. In the past I've even considered that noise, but there may be a trend of the major injury situation failing.

The stacking forecast needs to know who's playing and relies on those stats. It does use those old stats, but does very well with it. Sometimes, I can't make the stacking forecast until late, if we don't know a QB, for example.

The public gauge uses some basic stats but looks more at ratings and other public information to get formed.

All of them account and weight for recent performance as well as season long information.

This might be the season to start breaking down a little more the forecasts, but I had some newer type of info to introduce.

The real game, at this point for me, is to try and figure out which forecast will be the opening lines, or very close, for the majority or all the games. We tried some of that last year and after this weeks results, we might try again.

Sometimes the market wants to sideline some bettors, for multiple reasons, or force them to gamble. We have seen this already, the Total in the final game last week was one of these. We will see more and I will point it out.

[danshan11]

I am going to be honest with you, I have not met anyone as close to my lines in CFL,MLB,NBA or the WNBA. I am sure there is someone but I never met them. Most guys I challenge or try to get them to put up openers before lines come out wont, I am sure they have their reasons but I dont know what they could be. Everyone thinks wins and losses and I just dont think that way. Anyway I am glad to be here, have enjoyed reading and responding, learning some things and for sure discussing the different leagues and methods, Peace to all and to all a goodnight, LOL

[Emily_Haines]

Manziel out for Montreal

Why they starting this Pipkin fukk?

Wiley and Adams are better. They're not even trying to win anymore.

[Hngkng]

Manziel out for Montreal

Why they starting this Pipkin fukk?

Wiley and Adams are better. They're not even trying to win anymore.

Willy is injured. Adams is pretty bad.

[KVB]

...They're not even trying to win anymore.

Please post a link to show that they ever were trying.

[KVB]

The CFL Sharp Forecast Fund has picked up the following plays...

British Columbia Lions -1.5 (-110) over Toronto Argonauts…

The sharp forecast has British Columbia winning with 36 points to Toronto’s 16 or 17 points. The stacking forecast shows BC winning with 31 points to Toronto’s 20 or 22 points. The non-predictive public gauge shows BC winning 27-24.

Less sophisticated methods using season averages gives BC anywhere from a 7 point win to a 14 point win with Totals between 47 and 54 points. Notice the 50.5 we see in the market is right between those numbers.

It’s not much to note because we don’t do much with those numbers, I mostly offer them so readers can see if they are in the ranges, but the market is making an effort to split the action.

The line opened with BC -1.5 and has moved towards the numbers to -3. The Total opened right at the public gauge with 51 and has ticked away from the forecasts by half a point.

The numbers show that Total really is trying to split the action or sideline some groups that won’t bite when the books want them to gamble. We can confirm this with what light volume back end action we can see as tickets and money are on the over, but not to an extreme degree.

There is going to be some pressure for BC to lose or not cover the spread here and that action is not unwarranted.

On the other side, the market is generating a little story here as we have seen four dogs cover in a row and the market and the forecasts seek the favorite. The pressure has moved a suspiciously low line.

This spread is much more in line with the public gauge and, like last night, the gauge disagrees (basically) with the forecast. Technically it agrees as it as a 3 point victory with the 1.5 point line, but the forecasts predict a stronger favorite.

The public got paid yesterday and the market has given, for them, a tight line on both the spread and Total. The books seek gamblers.

I don’t especially like the spot the Forecasts are in here, especially with the low line, but in terms of give and take, the spot looks nice.

I do not have enough to counter the forecast with a bold play but like I said, there is pressure on BC to at least not cover a spread. With the line moving to 3, we could see 1-3 point game satisfying that BC pressure without giving it up to the greedy moneyline bettors.

That said the current back end information does not show much actual money on the Toronto upset. This information will change and I will seek out confirmation of these trends, but it could be that the line has pressed to 3 because of early pressure on the BC moneyline as opposed to the spread.

We are reaching a point where I may have to discontinue posting the CFL Sharp Forecast opening plays. The forecast, which has hit a very high percentage over the last three years against the spread of every game, is now beating the closer every time. Not a lot but every time.

Given that it’s not what they bring but how the bring it and some of the ways in which the forecasts have failed on the field, we may have an issue here.

[Coolcanuck79]

I am on the over 49 -122.

GL with your BC -1.5 KVB!