NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Lost on Ariz. Will post my own notes for this week:
...Parallel to Merril's notes. My six Public sides:

*Public = Wash
...ATL off a no-show loss.

*Public = Carol
...Public Dog alert. New Eng has potential here.
...They look like even teams. No, I think NE is much better.
...Patriots have better Rush stats. And chance to fade Young.

*Public = Chargers
...Chargers are off to an incredible start to the season. 3-0.
...And those were all Divisional wins. Chargers are ripe.
...My main hesitation = Gano injury. Giants lose a lot if Gano is inhibited.

*Public = Chicago
...Bears off a nice win. Can you expect them to win on the road?

*Public = Balt
...Both teams 1-2. Kelce had key drop vs PHI. People got off the Chefs so quickly.

*Public = GBay
...I love Lamb being out. Bumps up the price some more.
...No Lamb/Parsons. People think that means the Cowboys have to play ten a side.

GL, everyone. Have a great week!

Public sides were 2-5 ATS off my list (above).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wk04: 3-1 ats. But ends w/ a dud.
ytd: 13-5 ats (.722) +7.5 units.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. This has been a good thread. A few things:

1) Any veteran bettor will know that it's the PRICE on YOUR TICKET that matters. Betting on Fixed Odds sports is not the same as betting into a parimutuel market.
2) Merril has repeatedly postured that the lines move WITH public opinion. No, this is not true. It's much more nuanced. Capturing line-value is tricky. It's more Art than Science.
...Betting lines are a function of the market. Ticket-counts aren't equivalent to $$ bet. Sometimes, the sharps grab a number at the correct time.

Anyway, will update again later in the week. GL to anyone in action.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to take a little different approach for Wk05: *Will post my Public sides b4 the Merril video is released. I like the Merril video, but it comes up a little late in the week. I'm beating Merril by about 24 hours.

Repeating what my view is on Public sides. I'm considering the line...and what I might expect the ticket-count to be on that game. If I see a difference of 10%+, I view that as a Public side.

Do what you want with this info. IMHO, you don't want to be on the Public side too often. If you are on the Public side, that may mean that you're on the Square side. IMHO, you mostly want to be against the Public side (or passing the game).

Wk05 Public sides (w/ some commentary on why the line may be tilted):
*Dallas: Cowboys off a hi-profile 40-40 tie on TV. I thought Lamb was supposed to be irreplaceable.
...Cowboys have a huge contingent of fans. Public doesn't need extra incentive to bet them.
...Jets are 0-4. But they've been a tough-luck team. Looks like an even game to me.

*NY Giants: Dart off win in his debut start. Put away the anointing oils?
...Would be very easy to think the Giants found their guy. Just one game, may be some over-reaction.
...Saints are 0-4. May be better than their record indicates. But they're hard to back as a Fav.

*Balt: Strange one. Ravens starting backup QB w/ Jackson out.
...Look at it blindly. Ravens have had success. How can they be a HD here?
...If you look deeper, BALT Def is really banged-up. And it's impacting their on-field performance.

*Tampa Bay: Public Dog alert. Mayfield gets credit for being a competitive guy.
...Easy to make a case for the Bucs. In a league where a FG is gold, +3.5 looks good on paper.
...Look a little deeper. Tough travel spot, FLA-to-WASH. And this Seahag DEF is tough.

*Detroit: Looks like a mismatch game. Lions are ~ 70% ATS in their last 70 games.
...Bengals off two burials. Actually looked like they quit during the last game at DEN.
...What were the Bengal players holding out for? To play like that? Chance for redemption here.

*Chargers: Off to a 3-1 start. Herbert is a stud.
...Wash is 2-2. Might be a middle-of-the-road team w/ either QB.
...Daniels cleared to play. I'm surprised that the market reaction isn't bigger.

*Kan City: big win last week. Back to 2-2.
...Chefs were staring at a 1-3 start. Answered the bell with an emphatic home win.
...But are they back to SB level? Chef offensive stats are down from peak years. And how do you size up the Jags?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril video for Wk05: I'm using current #s.

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Dall>>>>>JETS (+1.5)
*Det>>>CINCY (+10.5)
*Charg>>>>Wash (+3)

All three games line up w/ my list (above). GL if you try em!

[SBR Andy]

BetMGM NFL Week 5 betting splits:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump:
1) I like this thread.
2) In 2025 I'm of the opinion that the NFL is way over-exposed.
3) Hopefully guys can get some value out of it. Good Luck!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril video for Wk05: I'm using current #s.

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Dall>>>>>JETS (+1.5)
*Det>>>CINCY (+10.5)
*Charg>>>>Wash (+3)

All three games line up w/ my list (above). GL if you try em!

Wk05: 1-2 ats.
ytd: 14-7 ats (.667) +6.3 units.

[toddsclowns]

Great thread Chucky and Andy, I’ll be paying attention week 6 for sure. Anything like this for college football as well? Maybe just top 25 games?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great thread Chucky and Andy, I’ll be paying attention week 6 for sure. Anything like this for college football as well? Maybe just top 25 games?

Hey, Todd. Thank You:

1) I think this thread is valuable as an NFL-only approach.
...First four weeks worked very well.
...Wk05: not so much.

2) As for Coll FB, I'm not the guy to ask for opinions.

Good Luck. And thx for the notice.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Todd, another note:

*Most football-cappers would say that NFL is much different than CollFB.
...I'm not sure there's the same Public bias in Coll FB.
...Just my opinion. I'd stick to Public bias on NFL only.

Thx for the support. I'll continue to update this thread. As long as there's interest.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to take a little different approach for Wk05: *Will post my Public sides b4 the Merril video is released. I like the Merril video, but it comes up a little late in the week. I'm beating Merril by about 24 hours.

Repeating what my view is on Public sides. I'm considering the line...and what I might expect the ticket-count to be on that game. If I see a difference of 10%+, I view that as a Public side.

Do what you want with this info. IMHO, you don't want to be on the Public side too often. If you are on the Public side, that may mean that you're on the Square side. IMHO, you mostly want to be against the Public side (or passing the game).

Wk05 Public sides (w/ some commentary on why the line may be tilted):
*Dallas: Cowboys off a hi-profile 40-40 tie on TV. I thought Lamb was supposed to be irreplaceable.
...Cowboys have a huge contingent of fans. Public doesn't need extra incentive to bet them.
...Jets are 0-4. But they've been a tough-luck team. Looks like an even game to me.

*NY Giants: Dart off win in his debut start. Put away the anointing oils?
...Would be very easy to think the Giants found their guy. Just one game, may be some over-reaction.
...Saints are 0-4. May be better than their record indicates. But they're hard to back as a Fav.

*Balt: Strange one. Ravens starting backup QB w/ Jackson out.
...Look at it blindly. Ravens have had success. How can they be a HD here?
...If you look deeper, BALT Def is really banged-up. And it's impacting their on-field performance.

*Tampa Bay: Public Dog alert. Mayfield gets credit for being a competitive guy.
...Easy to make a case for the Bucs. In a league where a FG is gold, +3.5 looks good on paper.
...Look a little deeper. Tough travel spot, FLA-to-WASH. And this Seahag DEF is tough.

*Detroit: Looks like a mismatch game. Lions are ~ 70% ATS in their last 70 games.
...Bengals off two burials. Actually looked like they quit during the last game at DEN.
...What were the Bengal players holding out for? To play like that? Chance for redemption here.

*Chargers: Off to a 3-1 start. Herbert is a stud.
...Wash is 2-2. Might be a middle-of-the-road team w/ either QB.
...Daniels cleared to play. I'm surprised that the market reaction isn't bigger.

*Kan City: big win last week. Back to 2-2.
...Chefs were staring at a 1-3 start. Answered the bell with an emphatic home win.
...But are they back to SB level? Chef offensive stats are down from peak years. And how do you size up the Jags?

My list of Public sides: 3-4 ATS this week.

[QuantumLeap]

I like looking at what this guy posts. He posts MGM splits like you have previously but he also posts the most bet prop bets at MGM.

One thing I also like to do is look at line movement. Even though Detroit was a very public bet, the line moved. I like to fade public teams where the line doesn't move or moves in favor of the non-public team.

https://x.com/johnewing

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like looking at what this guy posts. He posts MGM splits like you have previously but he also posts the most bet prop bets at MGM.

One thing I also like to do is look at line movement. Even though Detroit was a very public bet, the line moved. I like to fade public teams where the line doesn't move or moves in favor of the non-public team.

https://x.com/johnewing

Thx, Quantum. I never read X. I can never figure out how to read it.

Re: your 2nd point, very good note. I've commented on this in the Merril notes:
*Merril somehow thinks that the line will move in lock-step w/ Public consensus. No, it's not that simple.
...Markets are more complicated than that. You have Buyers and Sellers.
...I think there's some proof that you pay EXTRA by lining up w/ the Public consensus.

Anyway, I'm having fun w/ this thread. Hope people are getting value out of it. Good Luck!

[QuantumLeap]

Thx, Quantum. I never read X. I can never figure out how to read it.

Re: your 2nd point, very good note. I've commented on this in the Merril notes:
*Merril somehow thinks that the line will move in lock-step w/ Public consensus. No, it's not that simple.
...Markets are more complicated than that. You have Buyers and Sellers.
...I think there's some proof that you pay EXTRA by lining up w/ the Public consensus.

Anyway, I'm having fun w/ this thread. Hope people are getting value out of it. Good Luck!

I agree. It's complicated. But ever since I've found the MGM public numbers I've done a lot better. I track every bet so I can see how I am ahead this season.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Back for Wk06. Continuing to refine this. Re-stating my approach:
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...I will list a few considerations for each game. Just my opinion.
...Just b/c I list a Public side doesn't mean I'm betting every anti-Public side.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = Denver) >>> (Anti = Jets +7)
...Teams played last season. Massive line shift of > 14 points.
...Eagles are over-rated, so temper Bronco's win. Jets have been a tough-luck team.

2) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = Ariz +7)
...Colts have been the league's top over-achiever. Way ahead of pre-season expectations.
...ARIZ lost a game that defied mathematics. Two plays that were 1000/1 or more.

3) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = Carol +3)
...Cowboys are often public (especially off a win). Panthers are tough to back.

4) (Public = Buff) >>> (Anti = ATL +4)
...Bills are still viewed as a likely AFC champ. Falcons off a bye.

5) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = MIA +4)
...Chargers make long trip to Florida. Dolphins have no market appeal, and HC is on hot-seat.

6) (Public = Lions) >>> (Anti = KC -2)
...Lions have taken advantage of recent schedule. Chefs look < Super Bowl-worthy.

7) (Public = New Eng) >>> (Anti = New Orl +3.5)
...Patriots off a huge divisional win. Saints broke their duck with win last week.

8) (Public = Seattle) >>> (Anti = JAX pk)
...Seahawks make long trip east. Jags just beat the Chefs, but how much does public value that win?

9) (Public = TENN) >>> (Anti = RAID -4)
...Titans getting some love off the win last week. Not too many bettors rushing to lay 4 with the Raiders.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The TENN TD was so unusual that Yahoo issued a Fantasy FB scoring revision:

scoring

adjustment

for

the

play

resulting

in

an

interception,

fumble

and

recovery

for

a

touchdown: -

Tennessee

DEF

will

be

credited

with

a

TD -

Arizona

DEF

will

be

charged

with

16

points

allowed

instead

of

22 -

Lockett

is

not

credited

with

an

offensive

TD.

I wonder how many times that's happened in league history. Can't be more than a few:
*Ward threw pass from about the 25.
...INT at own 7.
...Guy fumbles it.
...Ball goes backwards. TENN recovers in EZ for TD.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril video. Using current #s:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Indy>>>>>Ariz (+7)
*New Eng>>>NEW ORL (+3.5)
*dET>>>>KAN CITY (-2.5)
*Buff>>>ATLANTA (+4.5)

Merril's lean: Dall>>>CAROL.

All four line up to my list (above), as well as the lean. GL, if you're in Action.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Back for Wk06. Continuing to refine this. Re-stating my approach:
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...I will list a few considerations for each game. Just my opinion.
...Just b/c I list a Public side doesn't mean I'm betting every anti-Public side.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = Denver) >>> (Anti = Jets +7)
...Teams played last season. Massive line shift of > 14 points.
...Eagles are over-rated, so temper Bronco's win. Jets have been a tough-luck team.

2) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = Ariz +7)
...Colts have been the league's top over-achiever. Way ahead of pre-season expectations.
...ARIZ lost a game that defied mathematics. Two plays that were 1000/1 or more.

3) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = Carol +3)
...Cowboys are often public (especially off a win). Panthers are tough to back.

4) (Public = Buff) >>> (Anti = ATL +4)
...Bills are still viewed as a likely AFC champ. Falcons off a bye.

5) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = MIA +4)
...Chargers make long trip to Florida. Dolphins have no market appeal, and HC is on hot-seat.

6) (Public = Lions) >>> (Anti = KC -2)
...Lions have taken advantage of recent schedule. Chefs look < Super Bowl-worthy.

7) (Public = New Eng) >>> (Anti = New Orl +3.5)
...Patriots off a huge divisional win. Saints broke their duck with win last week.

8) (Public = Seattle) >>> (Anti = JAX pk)
...Seahawks make long trip east. Jags just beat the Chefs, but how much does public value that win?

9) (Public = TENN) >>> (Anti = RAID -4)
...Titans getting some love off the win last week. Not too many bettors rushing to lay 4 with the Raiders.

This info is Point-in-time. I'll never go back and revise these.

Just a few notes:
a) Jets do in fact cover. A decent QB gets the S/U win.
b) Of my list above, I'd be hesitant on Raiders. I don't like Bowers being out.
c) I view GBay -14 (2.00) as a +EV play. Here are my reasons:
...1) Chance to play versus Flacco. The body is dead, they just don't want to tell family.
...2) Long history of Big Dogs covering in ATS. So, bettors hesitant to lay big points.
...3) Remember this about the Bengal players (sans Burrow). Once they sign their contract, they're done breaking a sweat. They already got their $$.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. Not perfect. But more Winners than Losers (above).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Back for Wk06. Continuing to refine this. Re-stating my approach:
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...I will list a few considerations for each game. Just my opinion.
...Just b/c I list a Public side doesn't mean I'm betting every anti-Public side.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = Denver) >>> (Anti = Jets +7)
...Teams played last season. Massive line shift of > 14 points.
...Eagles are over-rated, so temper Bronco's win. Jets have been a tough-luck team.

2) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = Ariz +7)
...Colts have been the league's top over-achiever. Way ahead of pre-season expectations.
...ARIZ lost a game that defied mathematics. Two plays that were 1000/1 or more.

3) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = Carol +3)
...Cowboys are often public (especially off a win). Panthers are tough to back.

4) (Public = Buff) >>> (Anti = ATL +4)
...Bills are still viewed as a likely AFC champ. Falcons off a bye.

5) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = MIA +4)
...Chargers make long trip to Florida. Dolphins have no market appeal, and HC is on hot-seat.

6) (Public = Lions) >>> (Anti = KC -2)
...Lions have taken advantage of recent schedule. Chefs look < Super Bowl-worthy.

7) (Public = New Eng) >>> (Anti = New Orl +3.5)
...Patriots off a huge divisional win. Saints broke their duck with win last week.

8) (Public = Seattle) >>> (Anti = JAX pk)
...Seahawks make long trip east. Jags just beat the Chefs, but how much does public value that win?

9) (Public = TENN) >>> (Anti = RAID -4)
...Titans getting some love off the win last week. Not too many bettors rushing to lay 4 with the Raiders.

Public Plays = 2-7 ATS >>> Anti = 7-2 ATS.
...Anti plays have been doing well. See posts above.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril video. Using current #s:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Indy>>>>>Ariz (+7)
*New Eng>>>NEW ORL (+3.5)
*dET>>>>KAN CITY (-2.5)
*Buff>>>ATLANTA (+4.5)

Merril's lean: Dall>>>CAROL.

All four line up to my list (above), as well as the lean. GL, if you're in Action.

Wk06: 3-1 ats.
ytd: 17-8 ats (.680) +8.2 units.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Quantum. Going to try to keep this rolling.

Back for Wk07. Continuing to tweak this. Wk07 notes:
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...I will list a few considerations for each game. Just my opinion.
...Posting a little earlier in the week. Don't want to miss value #s.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = New Eng) >>> (Anti = TENN +7)
...Patriots off three wins. Before the season did you expect to ever see NE -7 on road?
...Tenn HC canned. Titans are gross. But how can it get any worse?

2) (Public = Raiders) >>> (Anti = KAN CITY -12)
...Raiders just beat a tomato-can. Carroll has hinted that Bowers figures to miss.
...Public used to love betting the Chefs. Now much more hesitant to back em.

3) (Public = Phil) >>> (Anti = MINN +1.5)
...Eagles are defending SB champs. But their 2025 Per Play stats are bad.
...Vikings off the bye (after win in London). Home Dog w/ rest-advantage.

4) (Public = NYG) >>> (Anti = DEN -7)
...Giants win again. Some love for rookie QB Dart.
...Do Broncos feel any jet-lag after LONG road trip? # might be cheap.

5) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = CHARG -1.5)
...Colts have been an over-achiever. Dealing w/ CB injuries this week.
...Chargers win very late at Miami. Now in a Home to Win-and-Cover spot.

6) (Public = Mia) >>> (Anti = CLEV -2.5)
...McDaniel on the hot-seat. Little margin for error.
...Browns as a Fav? Would take stones to lay points here.

7) (Public = TBay) >>> (Anti = DET -5.5)
...Bucs win again. So easy to back them now.
...Lions played home vs TBay last year. Dominated the stats but lost S/U.

8) (Public = Atlanta) >>> (Anti = SAN FRAN -2)
...Falcons have been up-and-down. Off an upset win over Bills, now go west.
...I like the spot for the Niners. Can they deal with the injuries?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. GL if you try em.

I expect Merril's plays to be a sub-set of what I listed (above).

[SBR Andy]

BetMGM NFL Week 7 betting splits:

Most bet player props ️
1. Quinshon Judkins (CLE) Over 91.5 Rushing yards -130
2. Saquon Barkley (PHI) Over 70.5 Rushing yards -115
3. Cam Skattebo (NYG) Over 17.5 Receiving yards -140
4. Rashee Rice (KC) Over 56.5 Receiving yards -140
5. Jaxson Dart (NYG) Under 40.5 Rushing yards -125

Most bet anytime touchdown scorer ️
1. Foster Moreau +1500
2. Kyle Monangai +275
3. Roschon Johnson +1100
4. Quinshon Judkins -135
5. Rome Odunze +110

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx, Quantum. Going to try to keep this rolling.

Back for Wk07. Continuing to tweak this. Wk07 notes:
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...I will list a few considerations for each game. Just my opinion.
...Posting a little earlier in the week. Don't want to miss value #s.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = New Eng) >>> (Anti = TENN +7)
...Patriots off three wins. Before the season did you expect to ever see NE -7 on road?
...Tenn HC canned. Titans are gross. But how can it get any worse?

2) (Public = Raiders) >>> (Anti = KAN CITY -12)
...Raiders just beat a tomato-can. Carroll has hinted that Bowers figures to miss.
...Public used to love betting the Chefs. Now much more hesitant to back em.

3) (Public = Phil) >>> (Anti = MINN +1.5)
...Eagles are defending SB champs. But their 2025 Per Play stats are bad.
...Vikings off the bye (after win in London). Home Dog w/ rest-advantage.

4) (Public = NYG) >>> (Anti = DEN -7)
...Giants win again. Some love for rookie QB Dart.
...Do Broncos feel any jet-lag after LONG road trip? # might be cheap.

5) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = CHARG -1.5)
...Colts have been an over-achiever. Dealing w/ CB injuries this week.
...Chargers win very late at Miami. Now in a Home to Win-and-Cover spot.

6) (Public = Mia) >>> (Anti = CLEV -2.5)
...McDaniel on the hot-seat. Little margin for error.
...Browns as a Fav? Would take stones to lay points here.

7) (Public = TBay) >>> (Anti = DET -5.5)
...Bucs win again. So easy to back them now.
...Lions played home vs TBay last year. Dominated the stats but lost S/U.

8) (Public = Atlanta) >>> (Anti = SAN FRAN -2)
...Falcons have been up-and-down. Off an upset win over Bills, now go west.
...I like the spot for the Niners. Can they deal with the injuries?

Will add a 9th play. Based on new data:
9) (Public = Carolina) >>> (Anti = NY JETS +1)
...Carolina off two wins. Only 2nd time Bryce Young has been Fav (in his career).
...Jets are so tough to back. Bad and incompetent.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Let's see if Merril's play are a subset of my list (above).

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*New Eng>>>>>TENN (+7)
*CHI>>>New Orl (+4)
*NYG>>>>DEN (-7.5)
*SEA>>>Houston (+3.5)

2 of the 4 line up to my list.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Let's see if Merril's play are a subset of my list (above).

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*New Eng>>>>>TENN (+7)
*CHI>>>New Orl (+4)
*NYG>>>>DEN (-7.5)
*SEA>>>Houston (+3.5)

2 of the 4 line up to my list.

GL if you try em. Once again, I disagree with Merril's logic:
1) TENN might be a gross play. I actually don't think you discard it b/c they're bad. That's NFL, I like TENN +7.
2) Merril's view on line-moves is insane. Public side doesn't correlate to future line move. In fact, it often moves the OTHER way b/c bettors are trying to identify +EV spots.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. GL today.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. GL today.

Rough day for these picks. Gonna be a losing week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will add a 9th play. Based on new data:
9) (Public = Carolina) >>> (Anti = NY JETS +1)
...Carolina off two wins. Only 2nd time Bryce Young has been Fav (in his career).
...Jets are so tough to back. Bad and incompetent.

Public Plays = 5-4 ATS >>> Anti = 4-5 ATS.
...Losing week. Could have been worse. Titans/Jets are dreadful.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Let's see if Merril's play are a subset of my list (above).

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*New Eng>>>>>TENN (+7)
*CHI>>>New Orl (+4)
*NYG>>>>DEN (-7.5)
*SEA>>>Houston (+3.5)

2 of the 4 line up to my list.

Wk07: 0-4 ats.
ytd: 17-12 ats (.586) +3.8 units.

[QuantumLeap]

Yeah, public won last weekend. But if they never win they would stop betting and the books would lose their income.

Some people look at a losing weekend and then give up fading the public thinking it will no longer work because of one weekend. But I say we have to keep chugging at it because we all know the public loses in the end which means fading the public will win in the end.