Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
...Props to Merril. He had a better week than me.
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6-4 ATS. Another winning week.
...Props to Merril. He had a better week than me.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Not saying any of that is true. In this particular instance, Carroll had no real options.
*In college this MOST CERTAINLY happens. Coaches know the #. If they can help out the alumni, they do.
...Is there a parallel to Carrol's decision to kick the FG? He's right next to the casinos. Doesn't hurt to keep your fans happy, b/c you know they bet the Raiders.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Its the bad beat of all bad beats, but not shady at all. Pete played the cards as they lay. Take the easy points and don't risk injuries on a meaningless hail mary ... starting QB already hurt.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Not saying any of that is true. In this particular instance, Carroll had no real options.
*In college this MOST CERTAINLY happens. Coaches know the #. If they can help out the alumni, they do.
...Is there a parallel to Carrol's decision to kick the FG? He's right next to the casinos. Doesn't hurt to keep your fans happy, b/c you know they bet the Raiders.Comment -
It’s gambling it happens. Not rigged. Didn’t bet it but Raiders seemed like the right side. Denver stinks on the road. Wash the week before almost lost.Comment -
Don't understand what you're saying:Originally posted by sunshine11
1) The DEF Delay of Game was very dubious. That's not a penalty.
2) I think Shea's point on injury-reduction is good. Why have a WR break leg on meaningless pass into EZ?Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Week 14:
1) (Public = TB) >>> (Anti = Atlanta +4)
...Looks like Falcons are playing out the string. But Bucs do not look strong.
2) (Public = CHI) >>> (Anti = Cleveland +7.5)
...Bears have been one of the luckier teams this year. Tricky spot in btw GBay games.
...Garrett going for the sack record. Got that to look fwd to.
3) (Public = CIN) >>> (Anti = Balt -2.5)
...Burrow is back. But the loss last week may be deflating.
...Division still up in the air. Close to Last Chance Saloon for the Ravens.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
4) (Public = San FRAN) >>> (Anti = Tenn +13)
...Really don't like this Niner team. Feel like we have a nice edge in Kicker in this game.
5) (Public = Carol) >>> (Anti = NEW ORL +2.5)
...Remember that Young has only been Fav a few times in his career. Panthers now playing with the albatross of playoff expectations.
...Saints have left a ton of pts on board via Missed FG. I believe in HC Moore, and they have looked sharper since Shough became starting QB.
Good Luck if you try em!Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Bump:Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
1) I've given my views on the Pros and Cons of Merril's rationale.
2) But his picks are grounded in value. Try finding a better Free Pick video.
3) One other negative = his release on Saturday. Meaning that he always misses the THUR games.
Have put a lot of work into this thread. My anti-Public angle is similar to Merril's. Just a matter of what you use as source data (which can sometimes be tricky).
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
6) (Public = Detroit) >>> (Anti = LA RAMs -6)Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
7) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = KAN CITY -4)
...Very easy to write off the Chefs, they look bad. Some nice situational edges for KC here.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Atl wins SU. Nice to start the week off with a Winner.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
8) (Public = DALL) >>> (Anti = Minn +6)Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
...Vikings have a stingy DEF, shouldn't get gouged. Reichard = excellent Kicker (top5 imho), and I trust in O'Connell to design the right plays.
...Have mentioned several times how big the Cowboy fan-base is. Bettors have no problem backing Dallas.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I use Action Network for this data.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatComment -
TK, that's a topic that generates a lot of discussion. Source data on ticket-counts seems to be all over the place.Originally posted by TKGatorWhere's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
9) (Public = JAX) >>> (Anti = NY Jets +13)Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
...Jags look fat to me. I see some anti-Jag angles. Backing the Jets as the big dog.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Merril's Wk15. Let's see how we line up:
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Carol>>>NEW ORL (+3). Line ticked up to -3.
*CIN>>>Balt (-2.5). John Harbaugh wasn't happy w/ the reffing last week.
*Charg>>>KAN CITY (-5.5). Public Dog alert. But the line is shooting up.
...Chefs are off a TV loss, Chargers off a TV win. Public has no resistance on this one.
Merill's Bonus leans:
*NYG>>>Wash (+2.5).
*Den>>>GBay (-2).
...I line up with 3/3 on Merril's picks. 0/2 on Merril's Bonus leans.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Merril's week = 2-1 ATS
ytd: 42-24 ats (.636) +15.6 units.
Another winning week for Merril.
...Guy is having a great year. Theme of anti-Public plays holding up in 2025.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
...I don't want to 2nd-guess myself too much. Will say that the ugly Big Dogs just didn't do that well this week. Were they tanking for better draft positions?Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
...Pushed on Tenn +13. 4-3 ATS for me, with Vikings pending.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
*Vikes get there. 5-3 ATS for me. Winning week.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
...My YTD results have been good. Similar to Merril's record.
Happy Holidays, everyone! Hope everyone is doing well.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Week 15:
1) (Public = Rams) >>> (Anti = SEATTLE pk)
2) (Public = CHI) >>> (Anti = GBay -1)
3) (Public = Phi) >>> (Anti = WASH +6.5)
...Raiders were incredibly bad last week. Wouldn't read much into that win.
...Quinn's job should be safe. But I think he'll show his best vs Division rival.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
4) (Public = BUFF) >>> (Anti = CLEV +10)Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
...Bills off a huge comeback divisional win.
...Browns playing out the string. Garrett to secure the Sacks record in front of the Dawg Pound (versus Allen)?
5) (Public = New Eng) >>> (Anti = BALT -2.5)(*-118 juice)
...Patriots missed out on clinching the Division. Think they're a little ripe here.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
6) (Public = San Fran) >>> (Anti = INDY +6)Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
7) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = DALL -2)
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
8) (Public = Minn) >>> (Anti = NY GIANTS +3)Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
9) (Public = nEW orl) >>> (Anti = NY Jets +4.5)Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
*Can't believe Seahags came back to win. Had that one written off as a Loss.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Sea closed at -1.5 Lolol good stuff here as always.Comment -
Yeah! Thx, Sun. Closing at -1.5, landing on 1. Can't beat that.Originally posted by sunshine11
Still trying to believe that SEA scored 2pts to tie 30-30 on that play. Amazing. It is true that players often quit on the near-parallel sideways pass.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Remember the theme of these picks. Some sides are un-touchable. Those are the sides we want to bet:Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
10) (Public = HOU) >>> (Anti = Raiders +14)
...Geno Smith announced as starter. I think that's important. If Geno wants to play in the league in 2026, he needs to show a pulse.
11) (Public = Cincy) >>> (Anti = MIAMi +4)
...Bengals are a statistically bad team. Even w/ Burrow, they're a shaky favorite.
...McDaniel makes the switch at QB. Could light a fire under players to perform.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Good Luck, boys. Enjoy the games.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Late to post. Been on vacation:
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Phi>>>WASH (+7).
*Buf>>>CLEV (+10.5).
*Minn>>>NYG (+2.5).
*Charg>>>DALL (-2).
*New Eng>>>BALT (-3).
Merill Xmas, everyone. Will check in later in the week.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
My plays for this week:
1) (Public = CINCY)>>>(Anti = Ariz +7.5)
...Can't see Bengals laying > TD. Cardinals slightly under-rated (imho).
2) (Public = New Eng)>>>(Anti = NY JETS +13.5)
...Truly gross contrarian spot. a) New Eng in Home Run year - off dog win at Balt.
b) Line has swung 20+ pts on this game from last year (13.5 +6.5 =20).
c) Turnover reversal game. Jets are +8 in Fumb Lost (and have ZERO int this yr).
d) Luck ranking game. Jets should fare better than ytd.
e) Jets have a good kicker. Should help them stay in the game.
3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = CLEV +3)
...A few angles on this game: Garrett going for the Sack record.
...Steelers MIGHT have the division locked up b4 kickoff.
...Even if BALT wins on SAT, how conservative will Pitt game-plan be? Tomlin doesn't want Rodgers to get body-slammed. Chance for the points to play.
4) (Public = TBay)>>>(Anti = MIAMI +5.5)
...Classic "must-win" team versus "team playing out the string."
...Mentioned how Buc stats have been weak over last ten games.
5) (Public = Buff)>>>(Anti = Phi +1.5)
Good Luck, everyone. And Happy Holidays!
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Merril's Wk17 video. Let's see how we line up:
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*CIN>>>Ariz (+7.5).
*Pitt>>>CLEV (+3).
*New Eng>>>NYJETS (+13.5).
*Rams>>>ATL (+8).
Bonus Lean: TBay>>>MIAMI (+5.5).
Lining up w/ 3/4 of Merril's plays, 4/5 if you include his lean. GL, everyone.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
*One interesting angle on the Pitt/Clev game: Ravens are currently leading GBay, 27-14 (at half). Steelers likely have to play it straight at Clev. Price ticking up: Can now get Clev +3.5 (if you like that side).Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
(NFL) Situation that's brewing. 1) Ravens lead at GBay. 2) Steelers at CLEV: Steelers can clinch the division. Motivation for them, but ALSO motivation for Browns! Chance to stymie your rival. 3) Tie-breakers are set up for Ravens in final week (at Steelers), if Browns do the dirty-work on SUN.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatWhere's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment
