NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages

[willkur23]

Hi!

I asked this same question last year, but I’ll try again.

A few years ago, William Hill used to post their NFL public betting and money percentages on Twitter. Unfortunately, they stopped doing that in recent years.

I’m trying to find something similar now, a sportsbook that shares its betting splits. I’ve come across some “services” like Action Network that provide these stats, but I’m wondering how legitimate they are. How exactly do they get their information? Do the sportsbooks provide it to them?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nfl/public-betting-trends/

[willkur23]

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nf...etting-trends/

Thank you! Do you happen to know how exactly they get their stats?

[Ian]

Sportsbook.ag has them. I don't know if their numbers are accurate or not, but they have them.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you! Do you happen to know how exactly they get their stats?

You bet, Wilk:
1) I'm not so sure about accuracy or source.
2) There used to be better sites.
3) It's a very good question/topic.
...We used to have good discussion here on NFL Contrarian picks. Actually had a good run of success. I'm convinced that contrarian handicapping is a good method for NFL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril does a decent job of running down the Public sides.
...FYI: I really don't like his analysis. But his info is pretty good.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's video:

PUBLIC>>>>>Contrarian sides:
DEN>>>>>Tenn
Pitt>>>>>JETS
JAX>>>>>Carolina
Cinn>>>>CLEV
Ariz>>>>>NEW ORL

Bonus (Public Dog):
Det>>>>>GBAY

[willkur23]

Will check it out. Thank you!

[SBR Andy]

DraftKings NFL Sunday Week 1 betting insights:

[willkur23]

DraftKings NFL Sunday Week 1 betting insights:

Thank you! Hmm, a lot of money on Bengals??

[SBR Andy]

BetMGM betting splits for NFL Week 1:

[willkur23]

BetMGM betting splits for NFL Week 1:

Do they post it somewhere on the site?

[stevenash]

Good intel, Andy, thanks for that.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

BetMGM betting splits for NFL Week 1:

Thx, Andy. Feel like this is useful info.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This is a great thread. Thx for the contributions.

One note (re: post 6). Merril's video is good. But I disagree with him on one point:
*Merril talks about these lines getting FATTER on the contrarian side by end of week.
...I disagree with that. Line-moves aren't that obvious.
...Some of the CONTRARIAN sides move in the opposite direction.

[willkur23]

Now, if we could also get statistics on which sportsbook is receiving the most tickets and money, that would be very valuable.

Here’s an example of why I’m asking specifically for stats directly from the sportsbooks rather than from services like Action Network: they showed the Raiders with 80%+ of both tickets and money, but that’s not true - at least not at BetMGM.

Andy, thanks again! Could you please clarify where exactly you get your stats from? Are they publicly available? If not, would it be possible for you to share them weekly, ideally at least an hour before the games begin?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's video:

PUBLIC>>>>>Contrarian sides:
DEN>>>>>Tenn
Pitt>>>>>JETS
JAX>>>>>Carolina
Cinn>>>>CLEV
Ariz>>>>>NEW ORL

Bonus (Public Dog):
Det>>>>>GBAY

I think this info was pretty good. Two caveats (and some ties to Wilk's note):
1) Public info is not absolute. It depends on the specific book.
...Take JAX/Carol as an example. I'm not sure. Carolina did get action on some sites.

2) I hate Merril's view on Public sides projecting future line moves.
...Doesn't work that way at all. Sometimes goes the other way, as bettors identify value.

3) These are tight markets. Price on your ticket matters.
...Den/Tenn ATS win was based on your ticket. Landed close to the #.
...Saints were a tough one. Unless you bought the hook, your +6.5 went up in smoke.

[SBR Andy]

Now, if we could also get statistics on which sportsbook is receiving the most tickets and money, that would be very valuable.

Here’s an example of why I’m asking specifically for stats directly from the sportsbooks rather than from services like Action Network: they showed the Raiders with 80%+ of both tickets and money, but that’s not true - at least not at BetMGM.

Andy, thanks again! Could you please clarify where exactly you get your stats from? Are they publicly available? If not, would it be possible for you to share them weekly, ideally at least an hour before the games begin?

Yes a couple of sportsbooks send them to us, DraftKings and BetMGM most consistently. I will try to post that when they come through.

The BetMGM one I got from X, the account BetMGMNews posts the betting splits - https://x.com/BetMGMNews

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. Anything for Week Two, Andy?

Twitter links blow (btw).

[ProSportsEdge]

Now, if we could also get statistics on which sportsbook is receiving the most tickets and money, that would be very valuable.

Here’s an example of why I’m asking specifically for stats directly from the sportsbooks rather than from services like Action Network: they showed the Raiders with 80%+ of both tickets and money, but that’s not true - at least not at BetMGM.

Andy, thanks again! Could you please clarify where exactly you get your stats from? Are they publicly available? If not, would it be possible for you to share them weekly, ideally at least an hour before the games begin?

Totally get where you’re coming from—having direct sportsbook handle/ticket data would be huge. Those third-party numbers can definitely be misleading sometimes. Curious to see if Andy can share more clarity on his sources.

[SBR Andy]

Bump. Anything for Week Two, Andy?

Twitter links blow (btw).

Yes will post for Thursday Night Football once the info is available.

[SBR Andy]

Thursday Night Football betting prop betting insights at DraftKings:

[SBR Andy]

Packers-Commanders prop betting at BetMGM:

Most bet props ️
1. Jayden Daniels over 20.5 pass completions
2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 37.5 rushing yards
3. Deebo Samuel over 4.5 rushing yards
4. Jayden Daniels over 226.5 passing yards
5. Jayden Reed over 37.5 receiving yards

Most bet players to score a TD ️
1. Jayden Daniels +175
2. Deebo Samuel +190
3. Terry McLaurin +160
4. Josh Jacobs -210
5. Jacory Croskey-Merritt +210

Most bet players to score 1st TD ️
1. Josh Jacobs +325
2. Jayden Daniels +1100
3. Terry McLaurin +1000
4. Tucker Kraft +1000
5. Deebo Samuel +1200


Updated Packers-Commanders betting at BetMGM:

Packers open -1.5, now -3.5
▪️ 56% of bets, 64% of money on Packers

Total open 48.5, now 48
▪️ 37% of bets, 76% of money on Under

Commanders open +105, now +155
▪️ 62% of bets, 47% of money on Commanders

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, Andy. Some observations:

1) Isn't the standard 30-cent juice on the Player props?

2) If I'm correct on Point #1, it tells me a few things:
...Oddsmaker isn't too confident in their #. If

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good stuff, Andy. Some observations:

1) Isn't the standard 30-cent juice on the Player props?

2) If I'm correct on Point #1, it tells me a few things:
...Oddsmaker isn't too confident in their #. If

...If they were, they'd make it 20-cents to have a liquid mkt.
...I do believe the top players can beat the early # (b4 it gets hammered out).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

...Those late to the party will get beat.

The side/ML doesn't surprise me:
*Bettors will bet the Fav if they're on momentum.
...But they like to grab the ML Dog.
...Makes no sense mathematically. But bettors don't like laying a price that looks like a -160 Baseball fav.

[SBR Andy]

...If they were, they'd make it 20-cents to have a liquid mkt.
...I do believe the top players can beat the early # (b4 it gets hammered out).

Yes most are -115 on each side, DraftKings and FanDuel usually -112. Limits are lower on player props because books know they are beatable. They will move quick when a rogue price is posted.

Why it pays to have multiple books. Even on -115 juice can still find value on mis-priced lines.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 02 (Early post) - Here are the sides that I expect to be Public splits:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Dallas>>>>>NYGiants
*Buffalo>>>>>NYJets
*Cincy>>>>JAX
*PITT>>>>Seattle
*ARIZ>>>>Carolina

*San Fran>>>NEW ORL
*New Eng>>>>>MIAMI
*Phil>>>>KAN CITY
*TBay>>>HOUSTON
*Atl>>>>MINN

Feel free to post any info/disagreements. Will be using this info in my pick thread. Thanks!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Week 02 video. Week One was 4-2 ATS (.667) versus closers.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

From Merril's consensus:
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Dallas>>>>>NYGiants (+5.5)
*LARams>>>TENN (+5.5)
*PITT>>>>Seattle(+3). Hate Merril's comment on "waiting for +3.5." Don't see it moving to 3.5.
*ARIZ>>>>Carolina(+7)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My two cents on the info for this week:

Playing:
*Ny Giants +6: Think it's the week to take em. If they don't show well here, it's QB change and possible HC change on the horizon.
*Seattle +3: I'm biased b/c I hate Rodgers. But I like the Dog. Points should play, and Steeler name-players didn't look so good last week. Jet game swung on the one fumble.

*Luke-warm on TENN. Wish the # was a little bigger.
*Feel like SF-NO is an impossible game to play. Too many moving parts.

[4TH AND STUPID]

SBR Andy did betmgmnews post something for week 2?

[willkur23]

BetMGM

[willkur23]

The image above seems to be to small, let me try this way

[willkur23]

Another try