NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Based on Andy's post, I'd view that MGM ticket count as:

PUBLIC>>>Contrarian
Buff>>>Jets
New Eng>>>MIAMI
CIN>>>Jax
Dall>>>NYG
Det>>>Chi

Pit>>>Sea
SF>>>NO
Ariz>>>Carol
Den>>>Indy
Phi>>>KC

Atl>>>Min
TB>>>Hou

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My two cents on the info for this week:

Playing:
*Ny Giants +6: Think it's the week to take em. If they don't show well here, it's QB change and possible HC change on the horizon.
*Seattle +3: I'm biased b/c I hate Rodgers. But I like the Dog. Points should play, and Steeler name-players didn't look so good last week. Jet game swung on the one fumble.

*Luke-warm on TENN. Wish the # was a little bigger.
*Feel like SF-NO is an impossible game to play. Too many moving parts.

Not saying that I always get it right. But these two were fun:
*Sea wins outright. Steelers can fk-off.
*Giants cover. Probably should have won S/U.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

From Merril's consensus:
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Dallas>>>>>NYGiants (+5.5)
*LARams>>>TENN (+5.5)
*PITT>>>>Seattle(+3). Hate Merril's comment on "waiting for +3.5." Don't see it moving to 3.5.
*ARIZ>>>>Carolina(+7)

Wk02: 3-1 ats. Carolina was particularly gross.
ytd: 7-3 ats (.700) +3.7 units.

I'll keep tracking these, if people get value out of it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

And in fairness to Merril, PITT did in fact move to -3.5 (and even -4) very late.

[SBR Andy]

Week 2 Monday Night Football betting insights from BetMGM:

Most bet player props ️
1. Omarion Hampton Over 53.5 Rushing yards
2. Nico Collins Over 75.5 Receiving yards
3. Justin Herbert Over 14.5 Rushing yards
4. Dalton Schultz Over 35.5 Receiving yards
5. Brock Bowers Over 62.5 Receiving yards

Most bet player to score anytime TD ️
1. Mike Evans +150
2. Emeka Egbuka +185
3. Bucky Irving -105
4. Ladd McConkey +150
5. Nico Collins +135

Most bet player to score 1st TD ️
1. Emeka Egbuka (TB) +1000
2. Mike Evans (TB) +800
3. Bucky Irving (TB) +550
4. Nico Collins (Hou) +650
5. Ashton Jeanty (LV) +525



Week 2 Monday Night Football prop betting insights from DraftKings:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Andy, as a guy who's not in those mkts. A few questions for you:
1) Does anyone carve out a real edge on these plays?
...Seems like a lot of work to play versus sharp lines at -115 juice.
2) Pool bets (like 1st TD) are normally terrible bets.
...If you sum up the 1/xx probabilities, I'm guessing that the Over-round is what? At least 120%?

[SBR Andy]

Andy, as a guy who's not in those mkts. A few questions for you:
1) Does anyone carve out a real edge on these plays?
...Seems like a lot of work to play versus sharp lines at -115 juice.
2) Pool bets (like 1st TD) are normally terrible bets.
...If you sum up the 1/xx probabilities, I'm guessing that the Over-round is what? At least 120%?

You can definitely carve out an edge on player props and touchdown scorers. TD Scorers higher variance for sure but like anything, trying to find those priced at +200 that should be +150, etc. Player props have low limits and move quick, so fair point on worth the time invested, but they can certainly be beat.

Agree with you on the pool bets like 1st TD. These definitely cater more towards the younger crowd that want a quick-result bet and the chance for a bigger payout. I don't dabble in those myself.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, Andy. GL on your plays.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Also, Andy: *Thanks for your contribution in this thread.

1) Guys like that chart you pasted in Post 34.
2) See my results chart in Post 38.
3) There's value in seeing Public betting %s. Just that it varies sometimes, depending upon the source.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. This thread has had good value. Feel like Wk03 will be a good week for contrarian betting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/nf...etting-trends/

Bump. I'm officially GIVING UP on this link:
*I don't think they refresh it. And I don't believe their output.

To get a solid Public bias count, you need ticket-count from a real book. That can be obtained. But you need the right info.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I believe this output more:

https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/

[2Sweeet]

The Biggest "Old Wives Tail" and lie in gambling, is why this thread was made.. % shared LOL.....
Anyone who believes in any of these BS % is why you never win in sports gambling. Trust me.

[2Sweeet]

I believe this output more:
https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/dra...etting-splits/

U believe in Johnny Vegas stfu. Go against every % they tell u all yr and figure out how the book wins every yr and u r still a loser!!!

Never base your handicapping off of these scam % trust me. A good gambler bets on Sunday or when the opening line comes out at your book for next weeks games, they can care less wtf everyone else bets just beat the closing line. This thread should be sent to the Saloon cuz it's all BS.. If u think you can look at a % that the book puts out and win u should give your money to charity or buy your kids a couple things they need. Do some work and no the names of more than 4 guys on a team u bet.

[2Sweeet]

This is for sides and totals, if u can bet props at any legal book for any kind of real money, then I already made my point. Good Luck all don't believe these scam % at any site. LOL if the line moved 4 pts in a college game why didn't the percent that has been out since Thursday move? You don't have to believe me but just look at your results in the end. YW

[2Sweeet]

LOL What about teasers or ML?

• Eagles vs. Chiefs: In a rematch of Super Bowl 59, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 20–17. This was a great outcome for the books, especially BetMGM, which had taken several large wagers on the Chiefs. The Eagles covering as 1.5-point Favorite also resulted in a win for the house against public bettors who often favor Kansas City.
• Chargers vs. Raiders: In the Monday night game in Las Vegas, the Los Angeles Chargers dominated the Raiders' offense en route to a 20–9 victory. The outcome helped the books cover some of the payouts from the game's other bets.

Now all the % would of said the books got killed on these 2 games? Wake up. I gave my 2 cents now. Do what u want with it. These were the 2 biggest handle games of the week. Public won both according to the %s... Stick your 7-3 dart throwing picks up your ass chuck... The books needed Falcons also.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Wk03 video:

I think BUFF would have been public (on Thur). But I won't count it in results.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

From Merril's consensus:
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Indy>>>>>TENN (+4.5)
*GBay>>>CLEV (+7.5)
*TBay>>>>NYJets (+6.5)
*CHARG>>>>Denver (+3)
*Dallas>>>CHICAGO (+1.5)

Five official. Two leans: *ATL and SEA.

GL, if you use this info.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

From Merril's consensus:
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Indy>>>>>TENN (+4.5)
*GBay>>>CLEV (+7.5)
*TBay>>>>NYJets (+6.5)
*CHARG>>>>Denver (+3)
*Dallas>>>CHICAGO (+1.5)

Five official. Two leans: *ATL and SEA.

GL, if you use this info.

I like the list (above). Two questions:
1) How much do bettors hate TENN?
2) What are the paths to success for TENN?
...They have a good Kicker. DEF should play better (imho). How can the offense play any worse?
...Remember that the Colts have been the biggest over-achiever in first two weeks. They should cool off.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to post my own list. Parallels Merril's list.

But I disagree on Merril's contention that Public sides correlate to future line movement. No, markets have Sharp/Square splits. Sometimes the # moves in the opposite direction.

Seven sides where I see dis-proportionate ticket counts:
*GBay: But the # is ticking down.
...Have talked about this GB. GBay got to 2-0 easily with two home wins.
...Their stock has gone way up. You're actually hearing them as the NFC favorite (for many guys).
...CLEV defense is under the radar. CLEV defense was statistically dominant in first two games.

*Atlanta; # ticking down.
...Falcons won a TV game. Everyone loves Bijan Robinson in the Fantasy FB world.
...# moved dramatically from the L/A line of -2.5.
...But SOMEBODY is betting Carolina. Ticked down from +6.

*Dallas: # moved across pk-em. DALL now favored.
...Bears are hard to like. Cowboys have a huge fan-base, so I always wonder about their line moves.
...Bear QB is young and mistake-prone. DALL qb is overpaid and (at age > 30) not too mobile.

*TBay: off two late wins.
...Number has ticked down a bit.
...Strangely, the mkt doesn't seem to mind Taylor starting in place of Fields.

*Chargers: off two TV wins.
...Easy to love the Chargers. Herbert looks MVP-level good.
...Interesting spot for Chargers. They're off to a 2-0 start.
...And they are 2-0 SU/ATS versus Divisional opponents. Win here would give them a stranglehold on the Division. 3-0 and all the H2H tie-breakers.

*HOU: off to an 0-2 start.
...Texans have won the Division. Off to a slow start.
...JAX in a new era under new HC. Ticket count on HOU. Does JAX merit fav status?

*CIN: 2-0 but QB knocked out.
...Interesting game to digest.
...Both QBs are out. Ticket count on CIN. Dog bettors like the +3.

[Mac4Lyfe]

^Good stuff Chucky. I really don’t have a feel for today’s games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

^Good stuff Chucky. I really don’t have a feel for today’s games.

Thx, Mac. Appreciate it. You have good insights on these games.

Truth is that NFL lines are accurate +/- two points:
*I will be rooting for your Browns. I don't root for an on-field fatality. But I am rooting for Garrett to get 2+ sacks today.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I like the list (above). Two questions:
1) How much do bettors hate TENN?
2) What are the paths to success for TENN?
...They have a good Kicker. DEF should play better (imho). How can the offense play any worse?
...Remember that the Colts have been the biggest over-achiever in first two weeks. They should cool off.

I repeat what I've been saying on this game:
1) The ticket splits aren't QUITE as wide as I'd expect on this game. I'd expect 80/20.
2) Line keeps moving out. -5.5 now.
3) TENN is bad. But how bad? Look at it this way: *Go back 18 days. Did you think that you'd EVER see Danny Dimes laying almost six points on the road to ANYONE?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

From Merril's consensus:
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Indy>>>>>TENN (+4.5)
*GBay>>>CLEV (+7.5)
*TBay>>>>NYJets (+6.5)
*CHARG>>>>Denver (+3)
*Dallas>>>CHICAGO (+1.5)

Five official. Two leans: *ATL and SEA.

GL, if you use this info.

Wk03: 3-1 ats. Push on DEN - Lands 3.
ytd: 10-4 ats (.714) +5.6 units.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to post my own list. Parallels Merril's list.

But I disagree on Merril's contention that Public sides correlate to future line movement. No, markets have Sharp/Square splits. Sometimes the # moves in the opposite direction.

Seven sides where I see dis-proportionate ticket counts:
*GBay: But the # is ticking down.
...Have talked about this GB. GBay got to 2-0 easily with two home wins.
...Their stock has gone way up. You're actually hearing them as the NFC favorite (for many guys).
...CLEV defense is under the radar. CLEV defense was statistically dominant in first two games.

*Atlanta; # ticking down.
...Falcons won a TV game. Everyone loves Bijan Robinson in the Fantasy FB world.
...# moved dramatically from the L/A line of -2.5.
...But SOMEBODY is betting Carolina. Ticked down from +6.

*Dallas: # moved across pk-em. DALL now favored.
...Bears are hard to like. Cowboys have a huge fan-base, so I always wonder about their line moves.
...Bear QB is young and mistake-prone. DALL qb is overpaid and (at age > 30) not too mobile.

*TBay: off two late wins.
...Number has ticked down a bit.
...Strangely, the mkt doesn't seem to mind Taylor starting in place of Fields.

*Chargers: off two TV wins.
...Easy to love the Chargers. Herbert looks MVP-level good.
...Interesting spot for Chargers. They're off to a 2-0 start.
...And they are 2-0 SU/ATS versus Divisional opponents. Win here would give them a stranglehold on the Division. 3-0 and all the H2H tie-breakers.

*HOU: off to an 0-2 start.
...Texans have won the Division. Off to a slow start.
...JAX in a new era under new HC. Ticket count on HOU. Does JAX merit fav status?

*CIN: 2-0 but QB knocked out.
...Interesting game to digest.
...Both QBs are out. Ticket count on CIN. Dog bettors like the +3.

I won't confuse the thread by tallying this record. The seven Public sides I listed went: 0-6 ATS (push on Chargers).

[Optional]

I won't confuse the thread by tallying this record. The seven Public sides I listed went: 0-6 ATS (push on Chargers).

A bunch of results that were unexpected by me.

I wouldn't write off your thread just yet. I've found several comments helpful so far.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A bunch of results that were unexpected by me.

I wouldn't write off your thread just yet. I've found several comments helpful so far.

Thx, Opti. I'll keep this thread going. My takeaways:
1) The source is key. Wtd Avg is best. Sometimes hard to get accurate ticket-counts.
2) The Merril video is good. But I mentioned how I think he has some bias.
3) NFL is so over-exposed now. People have opinions. Feel like that is baked into the #.

Have my own instinct on how public opinion factors into a line.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Opti, think back to 2022. We had a great Contrarian thread going:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/more/nominated-posts/2009081-nfl-week-17-contrarian-angles-nominated-post

Hoping that this can become a re-incarnation of that 2022 thread.

[Optional]

Opti, think back to 2022. We had a great Contrarian thread going:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/more/nominated-posts/2009081-nfl-week-17-contrarian-angles-nominated-post

Hoping that this can become a re-incarnation of that 2022 thread.

exactly what I was thinking about

[ChuckyTheGoat]

exactly what I was thinking about

Hope we keep it going, Opti. I made a comment to a poster:
*NFL is so over-exposed now:
1) Fantasy FB players. These guys think they know these teams b/c they can name five Pos players on each team.
2) Youtube has opened the door for FB podcasts. Do you view all these guys as being knowledgeable?

[Optional]

Hope we keep it going, Opti. I made a comment to a poster:
*NFL is so over-exposed now:
1) Fantasy FB players. These guys think they know these teams b/c they can name five Pos players on each team.
2) Youtube has opened the door for FB podcasts. Do you view all these guys as being knowledgeable?

I do think most popular youtube analysts are pretty knowledgeable.

Just that knowledge alone isn't enough to get NFL calls correct a lot more than 50% of the time.

I think this weeks games demonstrates that. Well for me anyway, as a bunch of outcomes were definitely very contrarian to what I thought I knew so far this season

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Continuing my weekly notes on Public sides. My notes will focus on why I think a number might be slightly off:

*Wk04: SEA = Public>>>Contrarian play = ARIZ +1.5
...Seahags off two wins. SEA benefited from a very bad mis-play on the kickoff in Pittsburgh. And the boxscore wasn't so one-sided vs New Orl.
...Cardinals so close to starting 3-0. Couldn't quite hold in San Fran.
...Not sure the Fav status should flip. I like the (mangy) Home Dog.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Week04 video:
From Merril's consensus:
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Charg>>>>>NYG (+6.5)
*Wash>>>ATL (-2)
*GBay>>>>DALLAS (+6.5)
*DENVER>>>>cINCY (+7.5)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Continuing my weekly notes on Public sides. My notes will focus on why I think a number might be slightly off:

*Wk04: SEA = Public>>>Contrarian play = ARIZ +1.5
...Seahags off two wins. SEA benefited from a very bad mis-play on the kickoff in Pittsburgh. And the boxscore wasn't so one-sided vs New Orl.
...Cardinals so close to starting 3-0. Couldn't quite hold in San Fran.
...Not sure the Fav status should flip. I like the (mangy) Home Dog.

Lost on Ariz. Will post my own notes for this week:
...Parallel to Merril's notes. My six Public sides:

*Public = Wash
...ATL off a no-show loss.

*Public = Carol
...Public Dog alert. New Eng has potential here.
...They look like even teams. No, I think NE is much better.
...Patriots have better Rush stats. And chance to fade Young.

*Public = Chargers
...Chargers are off to an incredible start to the season. 3-0.
...And those were all Divisional wins. Chargers are ripe.
...My main hesitation = Gano injury. Giants lose a lot if Gano is inhibited.

*Public = Chicago
...Bears off a nice win. Can you expect them to win on the road?

*Public = Balt
...Both teams 1-2. Kelce had key drop vs PHI. People got off the Chefs so quickly.

*Public = GBay
...I love Lamb being out. Bumps up the price some more.
...No Lamb/Parsons. People think that means the Cowboys have to play ten a side.

GL, everyone. Have a great week!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Week04 video:
From Merril's consensus:
PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Charg>>>>>NYG (+6.5)
*Wash>>>ATL (-2)
*GBay>>>>DALLAS (+6.5)
*DENVER>>>>cINCY (+7.5)

3-0 on these going into MNF.