NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-25-25, 02:41 AM

Back for Wk08. Off loing week. Wk08 notes:
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...Was out of town. Running late this week.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = Buffalo) >>> (Anti = CAROLINA +7)
...Bills still appear to be the de facto choice out of AFC. -7 on road?
...Carolina off three wins. Now a playoff threat?

2) (Public = Atlanta) >>> (Anti = Miami +7.5)
...Remember one thing on these picks. Fantasy FB players also bet! They love RB Robinson.
...Dolphins look un-touchable. One plus = NOT playing in cold weather.

3) (Public = CINCY) >>> (Anti = Jet +6.5)
...Two of the biggest rodent franchises in the league. Flacco laying > 6 pts?
...Jets are beyond inept. Have to laugh. It's a sick feeling to have JETS on your ticket.

4) (Public = Bears) >>> (Anti = BALT -7)
...Bears weren't respected in the line last week. They win again.
...Ravens got hit by a TON of injuries. Gross record. Can you lay these pts?

5) (Public = Bucs) >>> (Anti = SAINTS +3.5)
...Looks like it should be higher. Haven't the Bucs earned that respect?
...I've been a believer in HC Moore. Will make an argument that Saints have been a little unlucky.

6) (Public = Niners) >>> (Anti = HOUSTON -2)
...Niners now viewed as being resilient.
...Remember when people loved betting on Stroud? Harder now, and they're laying pts.

7) (Public = Cowboys) >>> (Anti = DENVER -3.5)
...I've mentioned b4 how big the Cowboy fan base is. They're winning, and QB playing well.
...Broncos off a huge comeback win. Can you lay > 3 pts in a competitive matchup?

8) (Public = Steelers) >>> (Anti = GBay -3)
...Sunday night game. Most bettors will feel compelled to pick a side.
...Rodgers playing his former team. I'm guessing that Millman bangs the Tomlin HD angle.

I'll be picking out some plays from this list. GL if you try em.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-25-25, 02:51 AM

(36:00) Millman banging the Steelers as HD.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-25-25, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Back for Wk08. Off loing week. Wk08 notes:
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...Was out of town. Running late this week.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = Buffalo) >>> (Anti = CAROLINA +7)
...Bills still appear to be the de facto choice out of AFC. -7 on road?
...Carolina off three wins. Now a playoff threat?

2) (Public = Atlanta) >>> (Anti = Miami +7.5)
...Remember one thing on these picks. Fantasy FB players also bet! They love RB Robinson.
...Dolphins look un-touchable. One plus = NOT playing in cold weather.

3) (Public = CINCY) >>> (Anti = Jet +6.5)
...Two of the biggest rodent franchises in the league. Flacco laying > 6 pts?
...Jets are beyond inept. Have to laugh. It's a sick feeling to have JETS on your ticket.

4) (Public = Bears) >>> (Anti = BALT -7)
...Bears weren't respected in the line last week. They win again.
...Ravens got hit by a TON of injuries. Gross record. Can you lay these pts?

5) (Public = Bucs) >>> (Anti = SAINTS +3.5)
...Looks like it should be higher. Haven't the Bucs earned that respect?
...I've been a believer in HC Moore. Will make an argument that Saints have been a little unlucky.

6) (Public = Niners) >>> (Anti = HOUSTON -2)
...Niners now viewed as being resilient.
...Remember when people loved betting on Stroud? Harder now, and they're laying pts.

7) (Public = Cowboys) >>> (Anti = DENVER -3.5)
...I've mentioned b4 how big the Cowboy fan base is. They're winning, and QB playing well.
...Broncos off a huge comeback win. Can you lay > 3 pts in a competitive matchup?

8) (Public = Steelers) >>> (Anti = GBay -3)
...Sunday night game. Most bettors will feel compelled to pick a side.
...Rodgers playing his former team. I'm guessing that Millman bangs the Tomlin HD angle.

I'll be picking out some plays from this list. GL if you try em.

Not editing my list. Just a few updates:
2) ATL: Looks like Cousins is starting.
...Doesn't change much for me. I view Miami +7.5 as +EV.

4) BALT QB Jackson out. Game-changer.
...I personally don't have the brass to play Balt -2. BAL still has same problems.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-25-25, 04:04 PM

How does Merril line up to my list?

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Cincy>>>>>Jets (+6.5)
*ATL>>>Miami (+7.5)
*TBay>>>>NO (+3.5)
*SF>>>Houston (-2)
*Chi>>>BALT(-2). *Asterisk: Merril was using info b4 Jackson was ruled out.
*PIT>>>GBay (-3)

All six line up to mine (above). GL if you try em.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-26-25, 06:00 AM

Bump. Like my info for this week. Lines up to how I'm betting today.

*The asterisk game = Chi-Balt. Game is so impacted by the QB injury. Have to decide for yourself.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-26-25, 11:38 AM

Adding a 9th play:

9) (Public = Giants) >>> (Anti = PHI -7)
...Giants running so well w/ Dart at QB. Payton even commented on this post-game.
...For a team that hasn't won many games, ticket-count looks off. Also, Eagles in recent revenge mode (from just a few weeks ago). Home-site has flipped, but the # went down.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-26-25, 03:10 PM

Pretty good on the early games, boys. Ravens even cover the garbage early # of -7.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-26-25, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

How does Merril line up to my list?

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Cincy>>>>>Jets (+6.5)
*ATL>>>Miami (+7.5)
*TBay>>>>NO (+3.5)
*SF>>>Houston (-2)
*Chi>>>BALT(-2). *Asterisk: Merril was using info b4 Jackson was ruled out.
*PIT>>>GBay (-3)

All six line up to mine (above). GL if you try em.

Merril's list 4-1 ATS. With GB pending.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-26-25, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Adding a 9th play:

9) (Public = Giants) >>> (Anti = PHI -7)
...Giants running so well w/ Dart at QB. Payton even commented on this post-game.
...For a team that hasn't won many games, ticket-count looks off. Also, Eagles in recent revenge mode (from just a few weeks ago). Home-site has flipped, but the # went down.

Pretty good. Anti goes 7-2 ATS.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-26-25, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Merril's list 4-1 ATS. With GB pending.

GB -3 gets there.

Wk08: 5-1 ats.
ytd: 22-13 ats (.629) +7.7 units.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-28-25, 06:10 PM

Bump. Have had fun with this thread. Will try to post tonite or WED.

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-29-25, 07:19 PM

Back for Wk09.
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...I will list a few considerations for each game. Just my opinion.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = DET) >>> (Anti = Minn +9)
...Wentz ruled out, he had been playing thru injury. People don't know McCarthy. Great kicker.
...Lions off bye, near 70% ATS over L70 games. Interesting coaching matchup.

2) (Public = NEW ENG) >>> (Anti = Atlanta +5.5)
...Falcons off a miserable showing. Get buried as a big Home Fav.
...Patriots are rolling. Talk of Maye for MVP. Tell me that's not premature.

3) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = PITT +3)
...Colts are rolling, 7-1. Priced higher than Packers were (at Pitt) last week.
...Steelers trying to stay on top of division where teams are melting.

4) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = TENN +9.5)
...Chargers go east after lopsided win.
...Titans a big Home Dog. Number rising. How bad can TENN be?

5) (Public = Denver) >>> (Anti = HOU -1.5)
...DEN 6-2, off blowout win over Dall. Fav flipped on news of top CB Surtain being out.
...HOU has under-achieved. Tough defense, Texans look like a curious Home Fav.

6) (Public = Rams) >>> (Anti = NO +14)
...Saints struggling, Moore makes QB switch. K Grupe supposed to be good, has missed 6 FGA.
...Rams off the bye. But they're a huge fav here.

7) (Public = Niners) >>> (Anti = NYG +2.5)
...Niners travel east. Mac has done OK replacing Purdy. Key DEF injuries, porous pass DEF.
...Giants have shown life with Dart. Giants also have key injuries.

8) (Public = JAX) >>> (Anti = RAID +3)
....Jags lost by 28 in London. Travelled home, off bye week. Now travel west.
...Raiders with biggest mail-in of year, 31-0 loss at KC. Also off the bye. TE Bowers should play.

9) (Public = Sea) >>> (Anti = WASH +3)
....SEA travels east. Laying FG in WASH.
...WASH off 21-pt TV loss at KC. May get QB Daniels back.

10) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = Ariz +2.5)
....Ariz off the bye. May get QB Murray back.
...DALL dealing w/ several DEF injuries, lost at DEN. Mentioned how people love to bet DALL.

GL if you try em.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-01-25, 03:12 PM

Let's see how we line up with Merril on Wk09:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*NEW Eng>>>Atlanta (+5.5)
*DETROIT>>>Minn (+9)
*Chargers>>>TENN(+9.5)
*DALLAS>>>Arizona(+2.5)
*Denver>>>HOUSTON(-1.5)
*BUFFALO>>>Kan City (-2)

I say this every week. Merril's view on line-moves is flawed. It's not a one-way move.
...We line up on 5/6 of Merril's plays. I was neutral on KC/Buf. I'm torn on that one, hard for me to back either side.

GL if you try em!

SBR Andy · 11-02-25, 11:39 AM

BetMGM NFL Highlights: Week 9

“Favorites are often popular and after going 11-2 ATS last week bettors are backing the chalk once again in Week 9. The sportsbook will be looking for a few underdogs to win outright on Sunday.” – Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager, BetMGM

Most bet games (tickets)
1. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
2. Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
4. Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
5. Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots

Most bet spreads (tickets)
1. Detroit Lions -8.5
2. Indianapolis Colts -3.5
3. New England Patriots -4.5
4. San Francisco 49ers -2.5
5. Los Angeles Chargers -9.5

Most bet spreads (handle)
1. Detroit Lions -8.5
2. Indianapolis Colts -3.5
3. Los Angeles Chargers -9.5
4. Houston Texans -2.5
5. Buffalo Bills +2

Most bet Totals (tickets)
1. Denver Broncos at Houston Texans Over 40.5
2. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Over 48
3. Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals Over 51.5
4. Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers Over 51.5
5. Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Over 52.5

Most bet underdogs to win (tickets)
1. Denver Broncos +118
2. Buffalo Bills +110
3. Carolina Panthers +600
4. Cincinnati Bengals +130
5. Pittsburgh Steelers +150

Most bet player props (tickets)
1. Tyler Warren Over 57.5 Receiving yards -120
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 76.5 Receiving yards -125
3. Brock Bowers Over 55.5 Receiving yards -115
4. Chimere Dike Over 36.5 Receiving yards -110
5. Jahmyr Gibbs Over 74.5 Rushing yards -115

Most bet anytime touchdown scorer (tickets)
1. Kimani Vidal -125
2. Jahmyr Gibbs -200
3. Jonathan Taylor -250
4. Jameson Williams +200
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown -110

Most bet First touchdown scorer (tickets)
1. Jahmyr Gibbs +380
2. Jameson Williams +1100
3. Jonathan Taylor +310
4. Sam LaPorta +950
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown +550

SBR Andy · 11-02-25, 11:41 AM

DraftKings NFL Week 9 betting insights:

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-03-25, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Back for Wk09.
*Listing what I view as Public sides, based on ticket counts (relative to the line).
...I will list a few considerations for each game. Just my opinion.
...NFA: Not Financial Advice.

1) (Public = DET) >>> (Anti = Minn +9)
...Wentz ruled out, he had been playing thru injury. People don't know McCarthy. Great kicker.
...Lions off bye, near 70% ATS over L70 games. Interesting coaching matchup.

2) (Public = NEW ENG) >>> (Anti = Atlanta +5.5)
...Falcons off a miserable showing. Get buried as a big Home Fav.
...Patriots are rolling. Talk of Maye for MVP. Tell me that's not premature.

3) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = PITT +3)
...Colts are rolling, 7-1. Priced higher than Packers were (at Pitt) last week.
...Steelers trying to stay on top of division where teams are melting.

4) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = TENN +9.5)
...Chargers go east after lopsided win.
...Titans a big Home Dog. Number rising. How bad can TENN be?

5) (Public = Denver) >>> (Anti = HOU -1.5)
...DEN 6-2, off blowout win over Dall. Fav flipped on news of top CB Surtain being out.
...HOU has under-achieved. Tough defense, Texans look like a curious Home Fav.

6) (Public = Rams) >>> (Anti = NO +14)
...Saints struggling, Moore makes QB switch. K Grupe supposed to be good, has missed 6 FGA.
...Rams off the bye. But they're a huge fav here.

7) (Public = Niners) >>> (Anti = NYG +2.5)
...Niners travel east. Mac has done OK replacing Purdy. Key DEF injuries, porous pass DEF.
...Giants have shown life with Dart. Giants also have key injuries.

8) (Public = JAX) >>> (Anti = RAID +3)
....Jags lost by 28 in London. Travelled home, off bye week. Now travel west.
...Raiders with biggest mail-in of year, 31-0 loss at KC. Also off the bye. TE Bowers should play.

9) (Public = Sea) >>> (Anti = WASH +3)
....SEA travels east. Laying FG in WASH.
...WASH off 21-pt TV loss at KC. May get QB Daniels back.

10) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = Ariz +2.5)
....Ariz off the bye. May get QB Murray back.
...DALL dealing w/ several DEF injuries, lost at DEN. Mentioned how people love to bet DALL.

GL if you try em.

Ariz gets there. 6-4 ATS, 60%. Another winning week, can't beat that.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-03-25, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Let's see how we line up with Merril on Wk09:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*NEW Eng>>>Atlanta (+5.5)
*DETROIT>>>Minn (+9)
*Chargers>>>TENN(+9.5)
*DALLAS>>>Arizona(+2.5)
*Denver>>>HOUSTON(-1.5)
*BUFFALO>>>Kan City (-2)

I say this every week. Merril's view on line-moves is flawed. It's not a one-way move.
...We line up on 5/6 of Merril's plays. I was neutral on KC/Buf. I'm torn on that one, hard for me to back either side.

GL if you try em!

Wk09: 4-2 ats.
ytd: 26-15 ats (.634) +9.5 units.

Winning week on the Merril plays. Mentioned that there's a lot of overlap w/ my list.

Net winning week whether you played my list or Merril's. Been noting where I think there might be subtle edges to bet into. If you've been profiting on these, props to you.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-05-25, 07:54 PM

Have had some success on these. Tough games this week, shorter card:
1) (Public = Buff) >>> (Anti = MIAMI +9.5)
2) (Public = CAROL) >>> (Anti = New Orl +5.5)
3) (Public = Phi) >>> (Anti = GBAY -2)

May add some more later in week. GL if you try em!

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-08-25, 12:53 PM

Merril's list - Wk 10

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Indy>>>Atlanta (+6.5)
*CAROL>>>New orl (+5.5)
*Buff>>>MIA(+9)
*SEA>>>Arizona(+6.5)
*Detroit>>>WASH(+8)
*Phi>>>GBAY (-1.5)

I line up 3/3 to Merril's Anti-plays.

Once again, I disagree with Merril's in-game comments:
1) His view on line-moves is off.
2) So often, Merril will just rationalize O/U plays. Can't win like that.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-08-25, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Have had some success on these. Tough games this week, shorter card:
1) (Public = Buff) >>> (Anti = MIAMI +9.5)
2) (Public = CAROL) >>> (Anti = New Orl +5.5)
3) (Public = Phi) >>> (Anti = GBAY -2)

May add some more later in week. GL if you try em!

Adding two plays (one of which lines up with Merril):
4) (Public = Steelers) >>> (Anti = CHARGERS -3)
5) (Public = dET) >>> (Anti = WASH +8)

SBR Andy · 11-09-25, 10:35 AM

Updated NFL Week 10 betting at BetMGM

Most bet spreads ️
1. Detroit Lions -8
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
3. Baltimore Ravens -4
4. Buffalo Bills -9.5
5. Carolina Panthers -5.5

Most bet spreads
1. Baltimore Ravens -4
2. Buffalo Bills -9.5
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
4. Detroit Lions -8
5. Houston Texans +1

Most bet Totals ️
1. New England Patriots-Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 48
2. New York Giants-Chicago Bears Under 45.5
3. Cleveland Browns-New York Jets Under 38
4. Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans Under 37.5
5. Baltimore Ravens-Minnesota Vikings Over 49

Most bet underdogs to win ️
1. New England Patriots +120
2. Pittsburgh Steelers +125
3. Minnesota Vikings +170
4. San Francisco 49ers +200
5. New York Jets +110

Most bet player props ️
1. Devaughn Vele (NO) Over 18.5 Receiving yards -115
2. Nico Collins (HOU) Over 61.5 Receiving yards -115
3. Rome Odunze (CHI) Over 52.5 Receiving yards -115
4. Zay Flowers (BAL) Over 66.5 Receiving yards -115
5. Kyle Monangai (CHI) Over 46.5 Rushing yards -120

Most bet anytime TD ️
1. Marcus Mariota +400
2. Terrell Jennings +300
3. Dalton Kincaid +200
4. Sean Tucker +450
5. Kyren Williams +100

Most bet 1st TD ️
1. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) +450
2. James Cook (BUF) +425
3. Dalton Kincaid (Buf) +1200
4. Derrick Henry (BAL) +500
5. Sam LaPorta (DET) +900

SBR Andy · 11-09-25, 10:37 AM

DraftKings NFL Week 10 betting insights:

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-09-25, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Merril's list - Wk 10

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Indy>>>Atlanta (+6.5)
*CAROL>>>New orl (+5.5)
*Buff>>>MIA(+9)
*SEA>>>Arizona(+6.5)
*Detroit>>>WASH(+8)
*Phi>>>GBAY (-1.5)

I line up 3/3 to Merril's Anti-plays.

Once again, I disagree with Merril's in-game comments:
1) His view on line-moves is off.
2) So often, Merril will just rationalize O/U plays. Can't win like that.

Both lists (mine and Merril's) +$ going into MNF:
*GBAY pending as short home-chalk.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-10-25, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Adding two plays (one of which lines up with Merril):
4) (Public = Steelers) >>> (Anti = CHARGERS -3)
5) (Public = dET) >>> (Anti = WASH +8)

3-2 ATS. Another winning week.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-10-25, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Merril's list - Wk 10

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Indy>>>Atlanta (+6.5)
*CAROL>>>New orl (+5.5)
*Buff>>>MIA(+9)
*SEA>>>Arizona(+6.5)
*Detroit>>>WASH(+8)
*Phi>>>GBAY (-1.5)

I line up 3/3 to Merril's Anti-plays.

Once again, I disagree with Merril's in-game comments:
1) His view on line-moves is off.
2) So often, Merril will just rationalize O/U plays. Can't win like that.

Wk10: 3-3 ats.
ytd: 29-18 ats (.617) +9.2 units.

Merril plays lose vig this week. Still having a good year.

franz555 · 11-11-25, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Wk10: 3-3 ats.
ytd: 29-18 ats (.617) +9.2 units.

Merril plays lose vig this week. Still having a good year.

NFL has beaten up a lot of posters so far, myself included. . Crazy results.

My hats off to you..... Keep it rolling

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-11-25, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by franz555

NFL has beaten up a lot of posters so far, myself included. . Crazy results.

My hats off to you..... Keep it rolling

Thx, Franz! NFL can be very tough. Pretty happy w/ my NFL picks in 2025.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-12-25, 08:04 PM

Week 11:
1) (Public = Tbay) >>> (Anti = BUFF -5.5)
2) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = JAX +3)
3) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = RAID +3.5)

Will try to post a few more later in the week. GL.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-12-25, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Week 11:
1) (Public = Tbay) >>> (Anti = BUFF -5.5)
2) (Public = Charg) >>> (Anti = JAX +3)
3) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = RAID +3.5)

Will try to post a few more later in the week. GL.

4) (Public = SF) >>> (Anti = ARIZ +3)
5) (Public = Det) >>> (Anti = PHI -2.5)

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-13-25, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

4) (Public = SF) >>> (Anti = ARIZ +3)
5) (Public = Det) >>> (Anti = PHI -2.5)

6) (Public = Sea) >>> (Anti = RAMs -3)
7) (Public = Cin) >>> (Anti = PITT -5.5)

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-15-25, 02:14 PM

Merril's list - Week 11

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Mia>>>Wash (+2.5). *FYI: Quinn making DEF calls this week.
*Charg>>>JAX (+3)
*SF>>>ARIZ(+3)
*Det>>>PHI(-2.5)
*Dall>>>RAID(+3.5)

Per usual, I like Merril's info...but consider his betting advice to be bad.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-15-25, 04:48 PM

I line up 4/5 to Merril's Anti-plays. GL if you're in action.

Optional · 11-15-25, 04:52 PM

I don't mind Jax Wash and Zona too.

ChuckyTheGoat · 11-15-25, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by Optional

I don't mind Jax Wash and Zona too.

*I think so, Opti. I could see it.
...Of course, there are always reasons for the other side. In particular, have to contemplate the SF/Ariz QB matchup (which now looks a little different).
...The top NFL capper will do well to capture the "3" when the fair value is 2.5. The three games you listed may apply.

I like em. GL to anyone in action.

Headsterx · 11-15-25, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Merril's list - Week 11

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Mia>>>Wash (+2.5). *FYI: Quinn making DEF calls this week.
*Charg>>>JAX (+3)
*SF>>>ARIZ(+3)
*Det>>>PHI(-2.5)
*Dall>>>RAID(+3.5)

Per usual, I like Merril's info...but consider his betting advice to be bad.

Yikes! I don’t know what to do!?