NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So far so good, boys. WASH was a very tricky one, if anyone played it:
*Wash COULD have won S/U (but for a muffed punt).
*Mia COULD have won by > 3.
...Lands 3. Some had +3, some had +2.5.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

6) (Public = Sea) >>> (Anti = RAMs -3)
7) (Public = Cin) >>> (Anti = PITT -5.5)

4-3 ATS on the week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's list - Week 11

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Mia>>>Wash (+2.5). *FYI: Quinn making DEF calls this week.
*Charg>>>JAX (+3)
*SF>>>ARIZ(+3)
*Det>>>PHI(-2.5)
*Dall>>>RAID(+3.5)

Per usual, I like Merril's info...but consider his betting advice to be bad.

Wk11: 2-3 ats.
ytd: 31-21 ats (.596) +7.9 units.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 12:
1) (Public = Buff) >>> (Anti = HOU +6)
...I love the Kicker matchup in this game. Fairbairn (HOU) should return. 18 FGM 50+ in L25 games (.72/gm).
...BUFF kicker Bass is out. Replacement Prater is 41 y/o. Only 2 FGM 50+ in L15 games (.13/gm).

2) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = KC -3)
...Bayesian inference play. Colts have feasted on lower-end opponents.
...Now-or-never for the Chefs. Should get a good effort.

3) (Public = Sea) >>> (Anti = TENN +13.5)
...Love this as a Rand McNally play. Seahags' 3rd road game in 4 weeks. 10,000 accumulated air-miles.
...TITANS had bye + three straight home games. Haven't been in plane in month. Early kickoff in Nashville.

4) (Public = Jax) >>> (Anti = ARIZ +3)
...Jags had the travel edge last week. Took advantage, blew out the Chargers.
...Flips this week w/ Jags going west. Brissett off a misleading boxscore, had a very good passing game.

5) (Public = Atl) >>> (Anti = NEW ORL -2)
...Will feel gross to lay points w/ Saints. Home off the bye, and Shough was sharp last out.
...Falcon injuries are significant. WR London and QB Penix out. What does (lottery-winner) Cousins have left?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 12:
1) (Public = Buff) >>> (Anti = HOU +6)
...I love the Kicker matchup in this game. Fairbairn (HOU) should return. 18 FGM 50+ in L25 games (.72/gm).
...BUFF kicker Bass is out. Replacement Prater is 41 y/o. Only 2 FGM 50+ in L15 games (.13/gm).

2) (Public = Indy) >>> (Anti = KC -3)
...Bayesian inference play. Colts have feasted on lower-end opponents.
...Now-or-never for the Chefs. Should get a good effort.

3) (Public = Sea) >>> (Anti = TENN +13.5)
...Love this as a Rand McNally play. Seahags' 3rd road game in 4 weeks. 10,000 accumulated air-miles.
...TITANS had bye + three straight home games. Haven't been in plane in month. Early kickoff in Nashville.

4) (Public = Jax) >>> (Anti = ARIZ +3)
...Jags had the travel edge last week. Took advantage, blew out the Chargers.
...Flips this week w/ Jags going west. Brissett off a misleading boxscore, had a very good passing game.

5) (Public = Atl) >>> (Anti = NEW ORL -2)
...Will feel gross to lay points w/ Saints. Home off the bye, and Shough was sharp last out.
...Falcon injuries are significant. WR London and QB Penix out. What does (lottery-winner) Cousins have left?

6) (Public = Clev) >>> (Anti = RAID -4)
7) (Public = SAN FRAN) >>> (Anti = Carol +7)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Week12 video:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*DET>>>NYGiants (+12.5).
*Sea>>>TENN (+13)
*SF>>>Carol (+7)

Lining up with 2/3 of Merril's plays. GL if you try em.*
*(8:00) Merril actually mentions that Bills would have been a public side (Anti>>>HOU), if he had sent out the video earlier.
...(12:00) Merril's two additional Public leans = Atl and Indy (which mirror my selections above).

[sunshine11]

Good info. Carolina +7.5 now. I like it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good info. Carolina +7.5 now. I like it.

Thx, Sun. GL if you try it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

6) (Public = Clev) >>> (Anti = RAID -4)
7) (Public = SAN FRAN) >>> (Anti = Carol +7)

2-3 ATS on week. Two pushes. Losing week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Week12 video:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*DET>>>NYGiants (+12.5).
*Sea>>>TENN (+13)
*SF>>>Carol (+7)

Lining up with 2/3 of Merril's plays. GL if you try em.*
*(8:00) Merril actually mentions that Bills would have been a public side (Anti>>>HOU), if he had sent out the video earlier.
...(12:00) Merril's two additional Public leans = Atl and Indy (which mirror my selections above).

Merril: 2-1 ATS this week. Winning week for him. Better than me this week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril: 2-1 ATS this week. Winning week for him. Better than me this week.

ytd: 33-22 ats (.600) +8.8 units.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 13:
1) (Public = DET) >>> (Anti = GBay +2.5)
...I know you can get a slightly better #.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 13:
1) (Public = DET) >>> (Anti = GBay +2.5)
...I know you can get a slightly better #.

2) (Public = CHARG) >>> (Anti = Raiders +10)
...Raiders are cleaning house. Three coaches fired in recent weeks.
...Everyone (including QB) should be on red-alert. Guys playing for jobs.

3) (Public = Denver) >>> (Anti = WASH +6)
...I like the spot. I see the Broncos being fat and over-priced.
...I do like Quinn taking over the Def calls. Should help the DEF.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2) (Public = CHARG) >>> (Anti = Raiders +10)
...Raiders are cleaning house. Three coaches fired in recent weeks.
...Everyone (including QB) should be on red-alert. Guys playing for jobs.

3) (Public = Denver) >>> (Anti = WASH +6)
...I like the spot. I see the Broncos being fat and over-priced.
...I do like Quinn taking over the Def calls. Should help the DEF.

4) (Public = Jax) >>> (Anti = TENN +6.5)
...See my notes from last week. Similar scheduling spot that benefits the Titans.
...Jags playing 4th road game in 5 weeks. Close to 20,000 air miles, TENN haven't flown in 35 days.

5) (Public = Buffalo) >>> (Anti = PITT +3.5)
...Public still likes a name QB in Allen. Laying > FG on road.
...Tomlin has long history as a Dog. And I expect the Steelers to be better this week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Wk13 video:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*TBAY>>>Ariz (+3.5).
*MIA>>>New Orl (+5.5)
*CHARG>>>Raiders (+9.5)
*Denver>>>WASH (+5.5)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4) (Public = Jax) >>> (Anti = TENN +6.5)
...See my notes from last week. Similar scheduling spot that benefits the Titans.
...Jags playing 4th road game in 5 weeks. Close to 20,000 air miles, TENN haven't flown in 35 days.

5) (Public = Buffalo) >>> (Anti = PITT +3.5)
...Public still likes a name QB in Allen. Laying > FG on road.
...Tomlin has long history as a Dog. And I expect the Steelers to be better this week.

6) (Public = TBAY) >>> (Anti = Ariz +3.5)

7) (Public = Atlanta) >>> (Anti = NYJETS +2.5)
[/QUOTE]

*Lining up with 3/4 of Merril's plays.

[Headsterx]

Merril's Wk13 video:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*TBAY>>>Ariz (+3.5).
*MIA>>>New Orl (+5.5)
*CHARG>>>Raiders (+9.5)
*Denver>>>WASH (+5.5)

Idk about Raiders

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump:
1) I'm seeing more articles echoing my thoughts.
2) Fantasy FB players all over the place. With legalized state-betting, they like to dabble in sports-betting as well.
3) So many NFL pick podcasts. As if you can just rationalize picks.

GL, boys!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Wk13 video:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*TBAY>>>Ariz (+3.5).
*MIA>>>New Orl (+5.5)
*CHARG>>>Raiders (+9.5)
*Denver>>>WASH (+5.5)

Pretty good on the early slate. My TENN play was a dud.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Link to Aunty's NFL thread:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/29909476-upset-alert-watch

...It's a contest thread. Very nice contribution. Looking for similar Contrarian picks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

6) (Public = TBAY) >>> (Anti = Ariz +3.5)

7) (Public = Atlanta) >>> (Anti = NYJETS +2.5)

*Lining up with 3/4 of Merril's plays.[/QUOTE]

4-3 ATS on the week.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Wk13 video:

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*TBAY>>>Ariz (+3.5).
*MIA>>>New Orl (+5.5)
*CHARG>>>Raiders (+9.5)
*Denver>>>WASH (+5.5)

Merril's week = 3-1 ATS
ytd: 36-23 ats (.610) +10.7 units.

I'm seeing more threads like this on the Internet. I think it's a very reasonable angle:
*IMHO, there's TOO MUCH information out there on NFL.
...People flock to one side. Beware when that is tilted. You normally want to be on the side that the HOUSE needs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 14:
1) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = DETROIT -3)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 14:
1) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = DETROIT -3)

2) (Public = Sea) >>> (Anti = ATLANTA +7)
...Another trip east for the Seahags. Telling you, those flights from the PacNW add up.
...Falcons won the stats last week. Should be value here.

3) (Public = Rams) >>> (Anti = ARIZ +8)
...Cardinals have been a tough luck team, better than 3-9 record. Brissett has good stats.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2) (Public = Sea) >>> (Anti = ATLANTA +7)
...Another trip east for the Seahags. Telling you, those flights from the PacNW add up.
...Falcons won the stats last week. Should be value here.

3) (Public = Rams) >>> (Anti = ARIZ +8)
...Cardinals have been a tough luck team, better than 3-9 record. Brissett has good stats.

4) (Public = TBAY) >>> (Anti = New Orl +9)
...Saints playing hard for Moore. Think he wants to build momentum going into 2026.
...Bucs are getting killed in the stats, and no one notices. TBAY has been poor HFav for years.

5) (Public = CLEV) >>> (Anti = Tenn +4)
...This one's gross. Browns are laying 4 pts w/ a QB way down the depth-chart.

GL if you try em. And thanks to Aunty for posting her plays.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4) (Public = TBAY) >>> (Anti = New Orl +9)
...Saints playing hard for Moore. Think he wants to build momentum going into 2026.
...Bucs are getting killed in the stats, and no one notices. TBAY has been poor HFav for years.

5) (Public = CLEV) >>> (Anti = Tenn +4)
...This one's gross. Browns are laying 4 pts w/ a QB way down the depth-chart.

GL if you try em. And thanks to Aunty for posting her plays.

*Bonus stat on TBay. K McLaughlin is 9/9 on FGA 50+. That's very hard to duplicate:

Chase McLaughlin	29	K	12	0	0	0	4	4	7	6	6	3	9	9	26	22	65	84.6	24	23	95.8	60	3585	4	6.7	60

[ChuckyTheGoat]

6) (Public = Chi) >>> (Anti = GBAY -6.5)

7) (Public = Den) >>> (Anti = RAID +7.5)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Week 14:
1) (Public = Dall) >>> (Anti = DETROIT -3) W

Feels good to get the week off to a good start.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

6) (Public = Chi) >>> (Anti = GBAY -6.5)

7) (Public = Den) >>> (Anti = RAID +7.5)

8) (Public = Cin) >>> (Anti = BUFF -5.5)

[ChuckyTheGoat]

8) (Public = Cin) >>> (Anti = BUFF -5.5)

9) (Public = Hou) >>> (Anti = KAN CITY -3.5)
...This one won't feel good. Texans will look like a live dog.
...Another circle-the-wagons game for the Chefs. Close to being a Win-or-Out game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Merril's Week 14 video. Let's see how we line up:

[ChuckyTheGoat]

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*CLEV>>>Tenn (+4). Titans should be fresh, first time on plane in six weeks.
*TBAY>>>New Orl (+8.5)
*Denver>>>Raiders (+7.5)
*Chicago>>>GBAY (-6.5). Public Dog alert. Bears have a chance to prove their mettle here.

Merill's Bonus leans:
*Sea>>>ATL (+7). Long-travel spot for Sea.
*Rams>>>ARIZ (+8.5). Merril doesn't like it based on "Cardinals losing 9/10." I love ARIZ here.
...I line up with 4/4 on Merril's picks. I'm also 2/2 on Merril's Bonus leans.

My Merril notes. I say the same thing every week:
a) I like his list of Public>>>Anti plays. I often line up on same side.
b) His comment on "filtering out bad teams" doesn't work for me. It's NFL, sometimes we WANT to back the team that nobody else can palate. (15:18) "Don't like backing a team that can't win the game."
c) More tout junk from Merril. "Can't make a case for the Saints." Who said they had to win S/U? And then Merril chucks in the Bucs as a "good teaser leg." Cmon, man.
d) (4:58) "If you like Tampa, I'd much rather play them on a Teaser down to -2.5....Otherwise, I'd rather have the Saints +8.5." Sorry, pal, math doesn't work that way, can't play both sides.
e) (12:00) Per usual, Merril's view on line-moves is off. He expects SEA to go higher. No, it's a MARKET. That means that bettors are identifying value. It doesn't mean that the line will direction-ally move toward the Public side.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

9) (Public = Hou) >>> (Anti = KAN CITY -3.5)
...This one won't feel good. Texans will look like a live dog.
...Another circle-the-wagons game for the Chefs. Close to being a Win-or-Out game.

10) (Public = Wash) >>> (Anti = MINN +1.5)
...Vikings look like value to me. Pretty stingy DEF, love the Kicker, and QB play can only get better.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I can't believe the RAIDERS kicked that FG, LOL.

*See if Pete is cashing a +8 ticket at the Palms two hours from now.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*CLEV>>>Tenn (+4). Titans should be fresh, first time on plane in six weeks.
*TBAY>>>New Orl (+8.5)
*Denver>>>Raiders (+7.5)
*Chicago>>>GBAY (-6.5). Public Dog alert. Bears have a chance to prove their mettle here.

Merill's Bonus leans:
*Sea>>>ATL (+7). Long-travel spot for Sea.
*Rams>>>ARIZ (+8.5). Merril doesn't like it based on "Cardinals losing 9/10." I love ARIZ here.
...I line up with 4/4 on Merril's picks. I'm also 2/2 on Merril's Bonus leans.

My Merril notes. I say the same thing every week:
a) I like his list of Public>>>Anti plays. I often line up on same side.
b) His comment on "filtering out bad teams" doesn't work for me. It's NFL, sometimes we WANT to back the team that nobody else can palate. (15:18) "Don't like backing a team that can't win the game."
c) More tout junk from Merril. "Can't make a case for the Saints." Who said they had to win S/U? And then Merril chucks in the Bucs as a "good teaser leg." Cmon, man.
d) (4:58) "If you like Tampa, I'd much rather play them on a Teaser down to -2.5....Otherwise, I'd rather have the Saints +8.5." Sorry, pal, math doesn't work that way, can't play both sides.
e) (12:00) Per usual, Merril's view on line-moves is off. He expects SEA to go higher. No, it's a MARKET. That means that bettors are identifying value. It doesn't mean that the line will direction-ally move toward the Public side.

Merril's week = 4-0 ATS
ytd: 40-23 ats (.635) +14.7 units.

Give Merril credit. He's putting out a great weekly video!
...Last two were razor-thin. Record speaks for itself.