Upset Alert Watch!

[Aunty808]

**I just did a c/p from the other forum where I posted after having the error message.

UPSET ALERT WATCH!

A little background...
The contest has 30K+ players this year. Percentages are the players (aka Joe Public) picks.

Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%

Years ago, I read...
Vegas doesn't care about matchups. Vegas is not in the business of predicting the final score. They're in the business of predicting what the PUBLIC THINKS THE FINAL SCORE WILL BE.

So I started tracking this contest to see if that statement was true. The players are from across the country, who I suppose, are just your average Joe Public who loves football. I know of one bookie on another board who used to post his lopsided bets for the members. They would then bet the opposite team and most of the time won. These discussion boards, in my opinion, represent the "gambling Joe Public". Over the years, combining the two, I came to conclusion that the statement is true. Vegas is not stupid.


RECAP
Week 2 - none
Week 3
97% GB lost at Clev+7' (10-13) Upset!
92% Atl lost at Car+5' (0-30) Upset!
2% Mia+13 at Buff lost but won ATS (21-31)
3% NYJ +7 at TB lost but won ATS (27-29)

Week 4
95% LAC lost at NYG+6' (18-21) Upset!
91% Wash lost at Atl+1 (27-34) Upset!
1% No+15' at Buff lost but won ATS (19-31)

Week 5
3% NE+8 won at Buff (23-20) Upset!
4% Tenn+7' won at Ariz (22-21) Upset!

Week 6
4% Ariz+6 at Indy lost but won ATS (27-31)
6% Clev+5 lost at Pitt S/U and ATS (9-23)
7% Cinn+14' lost at GB but won ATS (18-27)
97% Phil lost at NYG+7' (17-34) Upset!
96% Den won at NYJ+7 (London) but lost ATS (13-11)
95% Buff lost at Atl +3' (14-24) Upset!
91% LAC won at Mia +4 but lost ATS (29-27)

Week 7
4% LVR+12 at KC.......lost S/U & ATS (0-31)
6% NO+5' at Chic.......lost S/U & ATS (14-26)
7% Hou+3' at Sea......lost S/U and ATS (19-27)
97% NE at Tenn+7.....lost S/U & ATS (13-31)
93% Pitt at Cinn+5'....won ML (33-31)
91% GB at Ariz+6'......lost S/U but won ATS (23-27)

Week 8
1% Tenn at Indy - lost S/U and ATS (14-38)
2% Mia at Atl (34-10) Upset!
3% NYJ at Cinn (39-38) Upset!
4% Wash at KC - lost S/U and ATS (7-28)
5% Clev at NE - lost S/U and ATS (13-32)
7% NYG at Phil - lost S/U and ATS (20-38)

97% TBay at NO - lost S/U and ATS (3-23)
91% Buff at Car - lost S/U and ATS (9-40)
91% SF at Hou - SF opened -1' /Closed -Hou-2' won (26-15)

Week 9
2% NO+13' .........lost S/U and ATS (10-34)
4% Minn+9' .....(27-24) Upset!
4% Atl+5' ...........lost S/U but won ATS (23-24)
4% Car+13' .......(16-13) Upset!
97% LAC ........... lost S/U but won ATS (20-27)
======================
Plays
Week 10

1% LVR at Denver....... lost S/U won ATS (7-10)
2% Ariz at Sea............. lost S/U and ATS (22-44)
2% NO at Caro............(17-7) Upset!
3% Atl at Indy..............lost S/U -PUSHED ATS (25-31)
8% NYG at Chic..........lost S/U won ATS (20-24)
98% Buff at Mia......... (13-30) Upset!
97% Det at Wash.......lost S/U and ATS (22-44)

Week 11
2% NYJ at NE......................lost S/U Pushed ATS (14-27)
90% SF at Ariz....................lost S/U and ATS (22-41)
94% Hou at Tenn.............lost S/U won ATS (13-16)
95% GB at NYG.................lost S/U won ATS (20-27)
96% Balt at Clev..............lost S/U won ATS (16-23)

Week 12
1% NYJ at Balt........... lost S/U but won ATS (10-23)
2% NYG at Det...........lost S/U but won ATS (27-34) (OT)
6% Car at SF....... ......lost S/U and ATS (9-20)

99% Sea at Tenn.... lost S/u but won ATS (24-30)
96% NE at Cinn.........lost S/U but won ATS (20-26)
95% Buff at Hou.......(23-19) Upset!
92% Jax at Ariz.........lost S/U and ATS 24-27

Week 13
1% LVR at LAC...................lost S/U and ATS (14-31)
4% Minn at Sea...............lost S/U and ATS (0-26)
4% NYG at NE...................lost S/U and ATS (15-33)
5% Cinn at Balt...............32-14 Upset!
5% NO at Mia...................lost S/U but won ATS (17-21)
8% Ariz at TB....................lost S?U but won ATS (17-20)

97% Jax at Tenn............lost S/U and ATS (3-25)
97% LAR at Car.............. 31-28 Upset!
96% Den at Wash.........lost S/U but won ATS (27-26) What a game! So close to ML win!
93% SF at Clev..............lost S/U and ATS (8-26)

Week 14

1% NO at TB..............24-20 Upset!
6% Tenn at Clev.....31-29 Upset!

98% Den at LVR+7'......lost S/U but won ATS 17-24 (i/2 point win!)
98% LAR at Ariz..........lost S/U and ATS 17-45 (LAR was still pi$$ed from last weeks loss)
97% Sea at Atl........lost S/U and ATS 9-37

Week 15


1% Ariz at Hou........lost S/U and ATS 20-40
1% LVR at Phil.........lost S/U and ATS 0-31
1% Tenn at SF.........lost S/U and ATS 24-37
3% Atl at TB............29-28 Upset!
4% Clev at Chic...lost S/U and ATS 3-31

Adding
1% NYJ at Jax .....lost S/U and ATS 20-48
5% Indy at Sea....lost S/U but won ATS 16-18

91% Car at NO........20-17 Upset!


**Note: I use the line when I enter the contest to grade the plays.

GL2A

[Bluewater]

Mahalo Sista

[Bluewater]

Looks like another team took the other team to lightly and with 99% on them LVR looking good lol

[Bluewater]

Winner

[Aunty808]

Week 10 Results

1% LVR at Denver....... lost S/U - won ATS (7-10)
2% Ariz at Sea............. lost S/U and ATS (22-44)
2% NO at Caro............(17-7) Upset!
3% Atl at Indy..............lost S/U -PUSHED ATS (25-31)
8% NYG at Chic..........lost S/U won ATS (20-24)
98% Buff at Mia......... won ML...(13-30) Upset!
97% Det at Wash.......lost S/U and ATS (22-44)
=================

Week 11
Early Look - After SNF game
2% NYJ at NE

90% SF at Ariz
94% Hou at Tenn
95% GB at NYG
96% Balt at Clev

will update after MNF game if numbers change.
GLTA

[Aunty808]

Week 11 Results
2% NYJ at NE......................lost S/U Pushed ATS (14-27)
90% SF at Ariz....................lost S/U and ATS (22-41)
94% Hou at Tenn.............lost S/U won ATS (13-16)
95% GB at NYG.................lost S/U won ATS (20-27)
96% Balt at Clev..............lost S/U won ATS (16-23)
===============

Week 12
First Reactions/Early Look
Will update if numbers change.

1% NYJ at Balt
2% NYG at Detroit
6% Car at SF
7% Minn at GB

99% Sea at Tenn
96% NE at Cinn
95% Buff at Houston
92% Jax at Ariz
92% Phil at Dallas


GL2A

[Bluewater]

Mahalo aunty

[Aunty808]

Mahalo aunty

Eh braddah, I had my broom ready........NE lost if you had the +13' and of course, Ariz couldn't do squat.
Maybe this week........I'm working on another method with the college games. It's showing some promise.....I don't know tho', last week was the first time I used it. I kinda gave up with the O/U ....seems like a huge waste of my time cause there's clearly no edge....just throwing darts and hope it lands on the right side...lol.
Gotta run.......laters!

[Aunty808]

Results Week 12
*NOTE: My bad, I didn't get a chance to come back to update the numbers.
Minnesota changed to 10% and Dallas to 16%.

1% NYJ at Balt...........NYJ+14 lost S/U but won ATS 10-23
2% NYG at Detroit...NYG+14' lost S/U but won ATS 27-34 (OT)
6% Car at SF........Pending
7% Minn at GB....(not a Play).. Minn+6' lost S/U and ATS 6-23

99% Sea at Tenn....Tenn+11' lost S/u but won ATS 24-30
96% NE at Cinn.......Cinn+7' lost S/U but won ATS 20-26
95% Buff at Houston.....Hou+4' won ML 23-19 UPSET!
92% Jax at Ariz.........Ariz+2' lost S/U and ATS 24-27
92% Phil at Dallas....(not a Play)...Dallas+3 won ML 24-21
=================

Week 13 First Reactions/Early Look

1% LVR at LAC
3% Minn at Sea
3% NYG at NE
5% Cinn at Balt
5% NO at TB

97% Jax at Tenn
96% LAR at Car
96% Den at Wash
94% SF at Clev

BONUS! TOP 5 KNOCKOUTS
When choosing your Survivor picks for this week, be aware of these five teams. They have knockouted their opponents in your Survivor game.

TOP 5 (Percentage of Knockouts)
NYG..........15.1%
Clev..........14.0%
Tenn.........9.9%
SF..............9.3%
Car...........6.4%

**Carolina is playing in tonight's game against SF. If you picked SF this week for your Survivor Contest, start praying!!
GLTA

[Bluewater]

Mahalo for the numbers

[Aunty808]

Updated numbers
Week 13

1% LVR at LAC
4% Minn at Sea
4% NYG at NE
5% Cinn at Balt
5% NO at Mia
8% Ariz at TB

97% Jax at Tenn
97% LAR at Car
96% Den at Wash
93% SF at Clev
=========

[Bluewater]

Let’s it this train rolling mahalo

[nickfolker23]

so we playing Tennessee +6.5, Carolina +10.5 and Washington +6?

and maybe Vegas +10?

[Aunty808]

.GPlay against any favorite of 90% or higher, play on any dog with a pick percentage that's less than 10%.

This week, the picks are
1% LVR at LAC...................LVR+
4% Minn at Sea...............Minn+
4% NYG at NE...................NYG+
5% Cinn at Balt...............Cinn+.........32-14 UPSET!!
5% NO at Mia...................NO+
8% Ariz at TB....................Ariz+

97% Jax at Tenn............Tenn+
97% LAR at Car..............Car+
96% Den at Wash........Wash+
93% SF at Clev..............Clev+

GL2U

[ChuckyTheGoat]

.GPlay against any favorite of 90% or higher, play on any dog with a pick percentage that's less than 10%.

This week, the picks are
1% LVR at LAC...................LVR+
4% Minn at Sea...............Minn+
4% NYG at NE...................NYG+
5% Cinn at Balt...............Cinn+.........32-14 UPSET!!
5% NO at Mia...................NO+
8% Ariz at TB....................Ariz+

97% Jax at Tenn............Tenn+
97% LAR at Car..............Car+
96% Den at Wash........Wash+
93% SF at Clev..............Clev+

GL2U

Aunty, this is great stuff. I've been saying that NFL has never been more public:
*Every clown w/ an internet connection now feels compelled to post their pick podcast.

[Aunty808]

Aunty, this is great stuff. I've been saying that NFL has never been more public:
*Every clown w/ an internet connection now feels compelled to post their pick podcast.

Thanks! I appreciate you stopping by and checking out the thread.
I always take a look at your plays in the NFL Pulic Betting and Money Percentages thread and compare them with the ones listed here.

bluewater taught me about bets and handles. I never paid attention to other sites percentages because I didn't know where their numbers were coming from. With this contest, I can trust the numbers . The percentages are coming from the true Joe P, some 30K+ members(bets). I read alot of threads at different forums and use the covers contest TEAM EXPERTS to see who's picking who and then use that as my "handle".

I've been tracking these plays for over 10 years and it's been pretty consistent. This is where the DOGS reside. Here, UGLY wins!
A long time ago I read that when you make your picks, the ones you have no problem hitting the submit button, usually loses. But when you feel uncomfortable hitting the submit button, that's the ones that usually win. Point here is, when you look at these DOGS, you really need to muster up the courage to hit the submit button!! UGLY wins!!

GL2U

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, Aunty. Yes, Ugly = Beautiful.

*Your information is good. Love the huge contest you reference.
...My only addition might be the RARE instance where your contestants pick a DOG to win Outright. These are often "Public Dogs." In those spots, you can think about laying the pts w/ a short-side Favorite.

GL on your plays!

[Aunty808]

Salud, Aunty. Yes, Ugly = Beautiful.

*Your information is good. Love the huge contest you reference.
...My only addition might be the RARE instance where your contestants pick a DOG to win Outright. These are often "Public Dogs." In those spots, you can think about laying the pts w/ a short-side Favorite.

GL on your plays!

I mentioned in one of my college threads about those "Public Dogs". When the majority (90%-100%)of the Team Experts are on the DOGS, that's an auto-fade. Those picks almost always loses. It happens more often in the NCAA FB contest than in the NFL Contest.

Go Colts!

[Aunty808]

Week 14 First Reactions/Early Look

1% NO at TB
6% Tenn at Clev

98% Den at LVR
98% LAR at Ariz
97% Sea at Atl

Will update if numbers change.
GL2U

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I mentioned in one of my college threads about those "Public Dogs". When the majority (90%-100%)of the Team Experts are on the DOGS, that's an auto-fade. Those picks almost always loses. It happens more often in the NCAA FB contest than in the NFL Contest.

Go Colts!

OK, thx! Doesn't happen too often, but when it does!

[Aunty808]

OK, thx! Doesn't happen too often, but when it does!

These are two different contests I am referring to.

(1) The Upset Alert Watch pick percentages are from the nationwide contest. The contestants pick straight up with no pointspread.

I read a long time ago that if you can pick the straight up winner in the NFL, most of the time the points does not come into play (double-digit spreads are the exception). The hard part is picking the winner of the game. As I mentioned above, "Vegas doesn't care about matchups. Vegas is not in the business of predicting the final score. They're in the business of predicting what the PUBLIC THINKS THE FINAL SCORE WILL BE. This contest represents the true Joe P.


(2) The Team Expert percentages are from the covers.com contests. Those are ATS picks.
When these contestants jump on a fav or dog that ends up with a 90% or higher pick percentage, that is usually a loser. You'd think with them being "Team Experts" it would be the opposite and win, but nope, it loses.

just wanted to make sure everyone knows it's two different contests.......

[ChuckyTheGoat]

OK, thx, Aunty. It is truly amazing.

I see value in both contests you reference. The Human Mind is an interesting study. So often, it is indeed counter-intuitive.

[Optional]

These are two different contests I am referring to.

(1) The Upset Alert Watch pick percentages are from the nationwide contest. The contestants pick straight up with no pointspread.

I read a long time ago that if you can pick the straight up winner in the NFL, most of the time the points does not come into play (double-digit spreads are the exception). The hard part is picking the winner of the game. As I mentioned above, "Vegas doesn't care about matchups. Vegas is not in the business of predicting the final score. They're in the business of predicting what the PUBLIC THINKS THE FINAL SCORE WILL BE. This contest represents the true Joe P.


(2) The Team Expert percentages are from the covers.com contests. Those are ATS picks.
When these contestants jump on a fav or dog that ends up with a 90% or higher pick percentage, that is usually a loser. You'd think with them being "Team Experts" it would be the opposite and win, but nope, it loses.

just wanted to make sure everyone knows it's two different contests.......

I've been thinking how weird it is that scores arent higher in the pigskin poker contest. Just pick 3 ats and use opening lines on game day. I was worried it might be too easy and we would have a lot of 3-0 scores every week. Week 13 average score was decent for the first time in many weeks. Weird. Feels a bit like that science theory about not being able to observe the experiment because that would affect the results. Dont look at my picks or you will make them wrong

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A few explanations, Opti. Just my opinion:

1) Better coaching on the lower-end teams. CHI/NewEng: repeat SB of 1985?
2) I mentioned that the NFL Public opinion is bloated. Fantasy FB players feel like they are REAL NFL arm-chair QBs. And how many of these guys have to put out weekly podcasts to toot their opinion?
3) Probably some randomness in the 2025 results. For now, public bettors are leading the charge.

[Aunty808]

Week 15 Early Look/First Reactions
0% Ariz at Hou
0% LVR at Phil
0% Tenn at SF
2% Clev at Chic
4% Atl at TB

98% Car at NO

This is a first....never in all my years of playing this contest has there been a week with multiple 0% picks!

[Aunty808]

UPDATE: Thurs Dec 11

Week 15 Early Look/First Reactions
1% Ariz at Hou
1% LVR at Phil
1% Tenn at SF
3% Atl at TB
4% Clev at Chic

Adding
1% NYJ at Jax
5% Indy at Sea

91% Car at NO

good luck!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

UPDATE: Thurs Dec 11

Week 15 Early Look/First Reactions
1% Ariz at Hou
1% LVR at Phil
1% Tenn at SF
3% Atl at TB
4% Clev at Chic

Adding
1% NYJ at Jax
5% Indy at Sea

91% Car at NO

good luck!

Thx for posting, Aunty. I'll be tuned in, will be watching closely.

So many of these games line up as: (Must Win for Playoff Goals) vs (Bad Team playing out the string). I love games like that, b/c the motivations may not be as straight-fwd as people think.

[Bluewater]

Atl outright

[Aunty808]

Thx for posting, Aunty. I'll be tuned in, will be watching closely.

So many of these games line up as: (Must Win for Playoff Goals) vs (Bad Team playing out the string). I love games like that, b/c the motivations may not be as straight-fwd as people think.

You're welcome! I like reading your thread to get a deeper insight into the games. I wonder if Seattle will be nice to Mr. Rivers, what an insult to the Seattle defense....but who knows, it's the NFL and sometimes the ball takes crazy bounces. I'll be rooting for Seattle (my sleeper team to win the SuperBowl as of this week).
good luck!

[Aunty808]

Atl outright

hey braddah! I hope you laid a couple bucks on the ML......good win! Atlanta is so Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde! Never know what you're gonna get out them!!
good luck with your bets!!

[Aunty808]

Week 16 Early Look/First Reactions
1% LV at Hou
8% NYJ at NO

99% Buffalo at Clev
97% Phil at Wash
94% Minn at NYG

good luck!