Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages
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ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#211"Put on the foil." This could be a great game. Just saying.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#212Catching up on my book-keeping: *I was 3-7 ATS last week (w/ one push).Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
Remember the theme of these picks. Some sides are un-touchable. Those are the sides we want to bet:
10) (Public = HOU) >>> (Anti = Raiders +14)
...Geno Smith announced as starter. I think that's important. If Geno wants to play in the league in 2026, he needs to show a pulse.
11) (Public = Cincy) >>> (Anti = MIAMi +4)
...Bengals are a statistically bad team. Even w/ Burrow, they're a shaky favorite.
...McDaniel makes the switch at QB. Could light a fire under players to perform.
...One of the most PUBLIC weeks of the year.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#213Same w/ Merril last week. He was 1-4 ATS. His posted # on NYG was +2.5.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatPUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*Phi>>>WASH (+7).
*Buf>>>CLEV (+10.5).
*Minn>>>NYG (+2.5).
*Charg>>>DALL (-2).
*New Eng>>>BALT (-3).
Merill Xmas, everyone. Will check in later in the week.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#2143-2 ATS on my plays. Three outright dog wins.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatMy plays for this week:
1) (Public = CINCY)>>>(Anti = Ariz +7.5)
...Can't see Bengals laying > TD. Cardinals slightly under-rated (imho).
2) (Public = New Eng)>>>(Anti = NY JETS +13.5)
...Truly gross contrarian spot. a) New Eng in Home Run year - off dog win at Balt.
b) Line has swung 20+ pts on this game from last year (13.5 +6.5 =20).
c) Turnover reversal game. Jets are +8 in Fumb Lost (and have ZERO int this yr).
d) Luck ranking game. Jets should fare better than ytd.
e) Jets have a good kicker. Should help them stay in the game.
3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = CLEV +3)
...A few angles on this game: Garrett going for the Sack record.
...Steelers MIGHT have the division locked up b4 kickoff.
...Even if BALT wins on SAT, how conservative will Pitt game-plan be? Tomlin doesn't want Rodgers to get body-slammed. Chance for the points to play.
4) (Public = TBay)>>>(Anti = MIAMI +5.5)
...Classic "must-win" team versus "team playing out the string."
...Mentioned how Buc stats have been weak over last ten games.
5) (Public = Buff)>>>(Anti = Phi +1.5)
Good Luck, everyone. And Happy Holidays!
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#215Merril's week = 2-2 ATSOriginally posted by ChuckyTheGoatPUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*CIN>>>Ariz (+7.5).
*Pitt>>>CLEV (+3).
*New Eng>>>NYJETS (+13.5).
*Rams>>>ATL (+8).
Bonus Lean: TBay>>>MIAMI (+5.5).
Lining up w/ 3/4 of Merril's plays, 4/5 if you include his lean. GL, everyone.
ytd: 45-30 ats (.600) +12.0 units.
This mirrors the 60% that Merril quoted in the video.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#216My Week 18 plays:
1) (Public = SAN FRAN)>>>(Anti = Sea -1)
...I rate Seattle as the better statistical team. Niners have benefited from a very soft schedule.
...Seahag DEF is much better. Niner pass DEF is very vulnerable.
2) (Public = Carolina)>>>(Anti = TBAY -2.5)
...Bucs have been awful in 2nd half of season. As a result, line has cratered.
...Young's pass stats are still weak. Panthers are close to record for most S/U Dog wins in a season.
3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = Balt -3.5)
...I know the familiarity of the coaches. And I know the points usually play in this series.
...Rodgers isn't much younger than Rivers. Feel like BALT is penalized for all the early-season injuries.
4) (Public = BUFF)>>>(Anti = NY Jets +7)
...This is gross. And I'm presuming the jets aren't tanking.
...Glenn should be thankful that his check cashes. Because I don't think he's earning it.
5) (Public = GBay)>>>(Anti = Minn -6.5)
...How much does Lafleur care about this game? You're wrong, he cares even less.
...Lafleur will be sequestered where he'll be working on next week's game-plan.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#217Compare Madden's Raiders to the modern teams:
These teams have NO PROBLEM laying down.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#218I believe in my plays. Final week plays can be very tricky. More notes:Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatMy Week 18 plays:
1) (Public = SAN FRAN)>>>(Anti = Sea -1)
...I rate Seattle as the better statistical team. Niners have benefited from a very soft schedule.
...Seahag DEF is much better. Niner pass DEF is very vulnerable.
2) (Public = Carolina)>>>(Anti = TBAY -2.5)
...Bucs have been awful in 2nd half of season. As a result, line has cratered.
...Young's pass stats are still weak. Panthers are close to record for most S/U Dog wins in a season.
3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = Balt -3.5)
...I know the familiarity of the coaches. And I know the points usually play in this series.
...Rodgers isn't much younger than Rivers. Feel like BALT is penalized for all the early-season injuries.
4) (Public = BUFF)>>>(Anti = NY Jets +7)
...This is gross. And I'm presuming the jets aren't tanking.
...Glenn should be thankful that his check cashes. Because I don't think he's earning it.
5) (Public = GBay)>>>(Anti = Minn -6.5)
...How much does Lafleur care about this game? You're wrong, he cares even less.
...Lafleur will be sequestered where he'll be working on next week's game-plan.
1) (Public = SAN FRAN)>>>(Anti = Sea -1)
...SF/Chi/NewEng are all bi-products of playing 4th-place schedules.
...CHI should have beaten Niners last week. Left three plays on field on last drive.
...I give Shanahan credit for having a good year. But I believe in the SEA coaches even more here.
2) (Public = Carolina)>>>(Anti = TBAY -2.5)
...If the Bucs miss the playoffs, they should look in the mirror.
...Would suck to win this game and miss out b/c of ATL win. Canales is doing it w/ mirrors (imho).
3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = Balt -3.5)
...Is John Harbaugh coaching for his job? Feels like change is in the air (maybe for both coaches).
...They've had long tenures. Loser could be moving on.
4) (Public = BUFF)>>>(Anti = NY Jets +7)
...McDermott has hinted at resting players. Allen sometimes feels like a one-man team.
...Only question: *If Bills treat it like a bye-week, is Glenn even capable? Glenn may get canned.
5) (Public = GBay)>>>(Anti = Minn -6.5)
...Packers are supposedly resting a ton of players. And I don't expect to see backup QB Willis.
...Top two Packer QBs have been dinged-up. Willis has shown to be valuable, don't want to risk him.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#2196) (Public = Dall)>>>(Anti = NY GIANTS +3.5)
7) (Public = phi)>>>(Anti = Wash +4)
...One angle that MIGHT come into play here. Sirianni did tack on a a 2-pt play late in 1st meet.
...WASH players didn't appreciate it. They'll remember. Could be a spicy game.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#220Merril's video should come out tomorrow:
*He did mention this one in his Best Bet video, so I'll count it:
(Contrarian = San Fran)>>>(Anti = Seattle -1.5)Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#222PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*San Fran>>>Sea (-1.5).
*BUFF>>>NYJets (+8).
*Rams>>>Ariz (+8.5). *Merril mentions that the Ram playoff implications are tied to the SATURDAY results.
...Re: Jets, (3:00) Merril mentions this idea of non-Playoff teams vs Playoff teams. "Do the Bills play their starters?" FWIW, I'm seeing how hard it is for anyone to bet the Jets. Very hard to find anyone holding a Jet ticket this week.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#223I line up w/ 2/3 of Merril's plays. Not sure about the Ram game.
*Merril notes how the Rams MIGHT be motivated to move up to the 5-slot (if SEA wins).Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#224Merril's week = 1-2 ATSOriginally posted by ChuckyTheGoatPUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
*San Fran>>>Sea (-1.5).
*BUFF>>>NYJets (+8).
*Rams>>>Ariz (+8.5). *Merril mentions that the Ram playoff implications are tied to the SATURDAY results.
...Re: Jets, (3:00) Merril mentions this idea of non-Playoff teams vs Playoff teams. "Do the Bills play their starters?" FWIW, I'm seeing how hard it is for anyone to bet the Jets. Very hard to find anyone holding a Jet ticket this week.
ytd: 46-32 ats (.590) +10.8 units.
Merril finishes at 59%. Just short of 60%. Merril put in a good effort.
Feel good about this thread. Anyone that poached plays from this thread surely made a healthy profit in 2025.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
ChuckyTheGoatBARRELED IN @ SBR!- 04-04-11
- 38763
#225...Week: 4-3 ATS. Wraps up a very good Reg Season.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat6) (Public = Dall)>>>(Anti = NY GIANTS +3.5)
7) (Public = phi)>>>(Anti = Wash +4)
...One angle that MIGHT come into play here. Sirianni did tack on a a 2-pt play late in 1st meet.
...WASH players didn't appreciate it. They'll remember. Could be a spicy game.
...Mentioned how maybe 80% of Merril's plays lined up w/ mine. Feel like we presented a good portfolio of picks this season.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?👍 2😀 1Comment
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