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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 38763

    #211
    Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

    (NFL) Situation that's brewing. 1) Ravens lead at GBay. 2) Steelers at CLEV: Steelers can clinch the division. Motivation for them, but ALSO motivation for Browns! Chance to stymie your rival. 3) Tie-breakers are set up for Ravens in final week (at Steelers), if Browns do the dirty-work on SUN.
    "Put on the foil." This could be a great game. Just saying.
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • ChuckyTheGoat
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 04-04-11
      • 38763

      #212
      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

      Remember the theme of these picks. Some sides are un-touchable. Those are the sides we want to bet:

      10) (Public = HOU) >>> (Anti = Raiders +14)
      ...Geno Smith announced as starter. I think that's important. If Geno wants to play in the league in 2026, he needs to show a pulse.

      11) (Public = Cincy) >>> (Anti = MIAMi +4)
      ...Bengals are a statistically bad team. Even w/ Burrow, they're a shaky favorite.
      ...McDaniel makes the switch at QB. Could light a fire under players to perform.
      Catching up on my book-keeping: *I was 3-7 ATS last week (w/ one push).
      ...One of the most PUBLIC weeks of the year.
      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
      Comment
      • ChuckyTheGoat
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-04-11
        • 38763

        #213
        Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
        PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
        *Phi>>>WASH (+7).
        *Buf>>>CLEV (+10.5).
        *Minn>>>NYG (+2.5).
        *Charg>>>DALL (-2).
        *New Eng>>>BALT (-3).

        Merill Xmas, everyone. Will check in later in the week.
        Same w/ Merril last week. He was 1-4 ATS. His posted # on NYG was +2.5.
        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
        Comment
        • ChuckyTheGoat
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 04-04-11
          • 38763

          #214
          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
          My plays for this week:
          1) (Public = CINCY)>>>(Anti = Ariz +7.5)
          ...Can't see Bengals laying > TD. Cardinals slightly under-rated (imho).

          2) (Public = New Eng)>>>(Anti = NY JETS +13.5)
          ...Truly gross contrarian spot. a) New Eng in Home Run year - off dog win at Balt.
          b) Line has swung 20+ pts on this game from last year (13.5 +6.5 =20).
          c) Turnover reversal game. Jets are +8 in Fumb Lost (and have ZERO int this yr).
          d) Luck ranking game. Jets should fare better than ytd.
          e) Jets have a good kicker. Should help them stay in the game.

          3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = CLEV +3)
          ...A few angles on this game: Garrett going for the Sack record.
          ...Steelers MIGHT have the division locked up b4 kickoff.
          ...Even if BALT wins on SAT, how conservative will Pitt game-plan be? Tomlin doesn't want Rodgers to get body-slammed. Chance for the points to play.

          4) (Public = TBay)>>>(Anti = MIAMI +5.5)
          ...Classic "must-win" team versus "team playing out the string."
          ...Mentioned how Buc stats have been weak over last ten games.

          5) (Public = Buff)>>>(Anti = Phi +1.5)

          Good Luck, everyone. And Happy Holidays!

          3-2 ATS on my plays. Three outright dog wins.
          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
          Comment
          • ChuckyTheGoat
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 04-04-11
            • 38763

            #215
            Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
            PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
            *CIN>>>Ariz (+7.5).
            *Pitt>>>CLEV (+3).
            *New Eng>>>NYJETS (+13.5).
            *Rams>>>ATL (+8).

            Bonus Lean: TBay>>>MIAMI (+5.5).

            Lining up w/ 3/4 of Merril's plays, 4/5 if you include his lean. GL, everyone.
            Merril's week = 2-2 ATS
            ytd: 45-30 ats (.600) +12.0 units.

            This mirrors the 60% that Merril quoted in the video.
            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
            Comment
            • ChuckyTheGoat
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 04-04-11
              • 38763

              #216
              My Week 18 plays:
              1) (Public = SAN FRAN)>>>(Anti = Sea -1)
              ...I rate Seattle as the better statistical team. Niners have benefited from a very soft schedule.
              ...Seahag DEF is much better. Niner pass DEF is very vulnerable.

              2) (Public = Carolina)>>>(Anti = TBAY -2.5)
              ...Bucs have been awful in 2nd half of season. As a result, line has cratered.
              ...Young's pass stats are still weak. Panthers are close to record for most S/U Dog wins in a season.

              3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = Balt -3.5)
              ...I know the familiarity of the coaches. And I know the points usually play in this series.
              ...Rodgers isn't much younger than Rivers. Feel like BALT is penalized for all the early-season injuries.

              4) (Public = BUFF)>>>(Anti = NY Jets +7)
              ...This is gross. And I'm presuming the jets aren't tanking.
              ...Glenn should be thankful that his check cashes. Because I don't think he's earning it.

              5) (Public = GBay)>>>(Anti = Minn -6.5)
              ...How much does Lafleur care about this game? You're wrong, he cares even less.
              ...Lafleur will be sequestered where he'll be working on next week's game-plan.
              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
              Comment
              • ChuckyTheGoat
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 04-04-11
                • 38763

                #217
                Compare Madden's Raiders to the modern teams:


                These teams have NO PROBLEM laying down.
                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                Comment
                • ChuckyTheGoat
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 04-04-11
                  • 38763

                  #218
                  Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                  My Week 18 plays:
                  1) (Public = SAN FRAN)>>>(Anti = Sea -1)
                  ...I rate Seattle as the better statistical team. Niners have benefited from a very soft schedule.
                  ...Seahag DEF is much better. Niner pass DEF is very vulnerable.

                  2) (Public = Carolina)>>>(Anti = TBAY -2.5)
                  ...Bucs have been awful in 2nd half of season. As a result, line has cratered.
                  ...Young's pass stats are still weak. Panthers are close to record for most S/U Dog wins in a season.

                  3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = Balt -3.5)
                  ...I know the familiarity of the coaches. And I know the points usually play in this series.
                  ...Rodgers isn't much younger than Rivers. Feel like BALT is penalized for all the early-season injuries.

                  4) (Public = BUFF)>>>(Anti = NY Jets +7)
                  ...This is gross. And I'm presuming the jets aren't tanking.
                  ...Glenn should be thankful that his check cashes. Because I don't think he's earning it.

                  5) (Public = GBay)>>>(Anti = Minn -6.5)
                  ...How much does Lafleur care about this game? You're wrong, he cares even less.
                  ...Lafleur will be sequestered where he'll be working on next week's game-plan.
                  I believe in my plays. Final week plays can be very tricky. More notes:
                  1) (Public = SAN FRAN)>>>(Anti = Sea -1)
                  ...SF/Chi/NewEng are all bi-products of playing 4th-place schedules.
                  ...CHI should have beaten Niners last week. Left three plays on field on last drive.
                  ...I give Shanahan credit for having a good year. But I believe in the SEA coaches even more here.

                  2) (Public = Carolina)>>>(Anti = TBAY -2.5)
                  ...If the Bucs miss the playoffs, they should look in the mirror.
                  ...Would suck to win this game and miss out b/c of ATL win. Canales is doing it w/ mirrors (imho).

                  3) (Public = Pitt)>>>(Anti = Balt -3.5)
                  ...Is John Harbaugh coaching for his job? Feels like change is in the air (maybe for both coaches).
                  ...They've had long tenures. Loser could be moving on.

                  4) (Public = BUFF)>>>(Anti = NY Jets +7)
                  ...McDermott has hinted at resting players. Allen sometimes feels like a one-man team.
                  ...Only question: *If Bills treat it like a bye-week, is Glenn even capable? Glenn may get canned.

                  5) (Public = GBay)>>>(Anti = Minn -6.5)
                  ...Packers are supposedly resting a ton of players. And I don't expect to see backup QB Willis.
                  ...Top two Packer QBs have been dinged-up. Willis has shown to be valuable, don't want to risk him.
                  Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 38763

                    #219
                    6) (Public = Dall)>>>(Anti = NY GIANTS +3.5)

                    7) (Public = phi)>>>(Anti = Wash +4)
                    ...One angle that MIGHT come into play here. Sirianni did tack on a a 2-pt play late in 1st meet.
                    ...WASH players didn't appreciate it. They'll remember. Could be a spicy game.
                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 04-04-11
                      • 38763

                      #220
                      Merril's video should come out tomorrow:
                      *He did mention this one in his Best Bet video, so I'll count it:
                      (Contrarian = San Fran)>>>(Anti = Seattle -1.5)
                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                      Comment
                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 04-04-11
                        • 38763

                        #221
                        Let's see how we line up w/ Merril on wk18.
                        ...He quotes the 60% ATS record again in 1st minute:
                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                        Comment
                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 04-04-11
                          • 38763

                          #222
                          PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
                          *San Fran>>>Sea (-1.5).
                          *BUFF>>>NYJets (+8).
                          *Rams>>>Ariz (+8.5). *Merril mentions that the Ram playoff implications are tied to the SATURDAY results.

                          ...Re: Jets, (3:00) Merril mentions this idea of non-Playoff teams vs Playoff teams. "Do the Bills play their starters?" FWIW, I'm seeing how hard it is for anyone to bet the Jets. Very hard to find anyone holding a Jet ticket this week.
                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                          Comment
                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 04-04-11
                            • 38763

                            #223
                            I line up w/ 2/3 of Merril's plays. Not sure about the Ram game.
                            *Merril notes how the Rams MIGHT be motivated to move up to the 5-slot (if SEA wins).
                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                            Comment
                            • ChuckyTheGoat
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 04-04-11
                              • 38763

                              #224
                              Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                              PUBLIC >>>>> Contrarian
                              *San Fran>>>Sea (-1.5).
                              *BUFF>>>NYJets (+8).
                              *Rams>>>Ariz (+8.5). *Merril mentions that the Ram playoff implications are tied to the SATURDAY results.

                              ...Re: Jets, (3:00) Merril mentions this idea of non-Playoff teams vs Playoff teams. "Do the Bills play their starters?" FWIW, I'm seeing how hard it is for anyone to bet the Jets. Very hard to find anyone holding a Jet ticket this week.
                              Merril's week = 1-2 ATS
                              ytd: 46-32 ats (.590) +10.8 units.

                              Merril finishes at 59%. Just short of 60%. Merril put in a good effort.

                              Feel good about this thread. Anyone that poached plays from this thread surely made a healthy profit in 2025.
                              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                              Comment
                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 04-04-11
                                • 38763

                                #225
                                Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                6) (Public = Dall)>>>(Anti = NY GIANTS +3.5)

                                7) (Public = phi)>>>(Anti = Wash +4)
                                ...One angle that MIGHT come into play here. Sirianni did tack on a a 2-pt play late in 1st meet.
                                ...WASH players didn't appreciate it. They'll remember. Could be a spicy game.
                                ...Week: 4-3 ATS. Wraps up a very good Reg Season.
                                ...Mentioned how maybe 80% of Merril's plays lined up w/ mine. Feel like we presented a good portfolio of picks this season.
                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                Comment
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