Stats mean nothing in baseball, absolutely nothing!

[Emmett Brown]

Baseball is the toughest bet because there is no clock

Baseball is also the best bet because there is no point spread when betting a side unless you bet runline

IMO though stats in baseball can help you in regards to how well a particular pitcher does against a particular team

For example earlier today Livan Hernandez was pitching against his old team the Washington Nationals. He has owned them ever since they traded him. I think he is like 8-1 with a era of 1.00 vs WASH

Now would I bet Livan Hernandez ANY OTHER TIME other than when he is pitching against WASH?

No I wouldnt. The stat though helps/helped me to make money sometimes. Luck is real and Id rather have it over any stat in my favor. It also cant hurt when you have a stat on your side though

[Grinder]

That statement right there proves you know absolutely nothing about statistics. Zero.

I am 100% agreed. This guy has no idea about statistics. Dude, you need to learn some math first. It's not easy to predit a winner without knowing stats & other factors. It's very complicated. You can take my words on this one. For now, just drink and have fun. And go get a job

[Flight]

I disagree with a lot of what is said here (except for the brilliant write up from Ganchrow).

The biggest reason why I bet baseball is the statistics. Stats do make a difference; it's all we have to go on. For me, the magic of baseball is in the numbers. I'm sure there are lots of other math-types that enjoy the stats of baseball as much as I do.

Stats is my biggest betting aid, but having said all that, I do admit I rely heavily on "the gut" in many situations. Instinct allows you to survive, but rational thought allows you to win.

[Kyleben]

I do that's the sad thing I've watched this crap the last 4 years and lost every year

So you lose betting baseball every year, and you dont like stats...Hmm, i wonder if those two things go hand-in-hand.

[TheLock]

If you bet on baseball, stats and sound bankroll management are your friend

[bettilimbroke999]

So you lose betting baseball every year, and you dont like stats...Hmm, i wonder if those two things go hand-in-hand.

Nope what I'm sayin is I've gone over the stats for the last 4 years and lost every year, which is why I'm sayin stats in baseball mean nothing.

Seriously what stat is going to tell ya which team is going to have an error that gives up a run or a nobody squares a pitch, all the ERA/Batting Avg/Records of the two teams is factored into the line, the line certainly may not be perfect but its close enough so that imo you cant consistently beat it

Give ya an example you got a 3 ERA and a 9 ERA pitcher played in a game I made a small play on today you prolly think the total would be 10 or 10 1/2 bc on average they give up a combined 12 but the total was 7 1/2???? Makes no sense statistically for two pitchers that average giving up 12 runs a game for the total to be 7 1/2 especially considering the Giants are having a far above average year offensively and the Marlins whilst being slightly below par are not likely to score much lower than the 3 ERA Lincecum has, well placed my bet and of fukin course final score like always of 3-2, Lincecum bettered his ERA by 33% which was not that shocking considering the Marlins are subpar this year offensively but the shitbag pitcher Nolasco against the good offensive team of the Giants pitched 7 innings giving up only 2 runs to beat his ERA by 5 or by more than 70%, that's right he was supposed to give up 7 or more but gave up 5 include 1 unearned run for a total of 3+2=5 vs stats projection of 9+3=12 , yea thanks alot stats

[donjuan]

Buy an introductory statistics textbook. Seriously.

[Nicky Santoro]

it's not just baseball that stats dont help. it's every sport. NFL, NBA, etc.. that's why there's a line there.. whatever stats you think you know more than the books, you don't.. no one here at sbr is ahead of the books... no one.. oddsmakers are 4 steps ahead of everyone here.

This business is all about getting an edge. If you don't have an edge on the line, it's simple, you will not win.. knowing all the stats won't help you.

[donjuan]

it's not just baseball that stats dont help. it's every sport. NFL, NBA, etc.. that's why there's a line there.. whatever stats you think you know more than the books, you don't.. no one here at sbr is ahead of the books... no one.. oddsmakers are 4 steps ahead of everyone here.

Laughable. For a great example of dumb bookmakers, see: props.

[MonkeyF0cker]

What types of regression techniques have you used in the past Nicky? If you're an expert on this, certainly you've done it before, right? And certainly if you actually had (which you haven't), since you failed in your regression analysis, others MUST fail as well, correct?

[tacomax]

Yes, MF. He's going to say "correct".

[Shortstop]

Stats are only important in Fantasy Leagues. Stats don't mean a damn thing when it comes to wagering on sports.

Anything can happen once the game is under way.

[tacomax]

A lot of sharps have posted in this thread.

[Justin7]

it's not just baseball that stats dont help. it's every sport. NFL, NBA, etc.. that's why there's a line there.. whatever stats you think you know more than the books, you don't.. no one here at sbr is ahead of the books... no one.. oddsmakers are 4 steps ahead of everyone here.

This business is all about getting an edge. If you don't have an edge on the line, it's simple, you will not win.. knowing all the stats won't help you.

What are you smoking?

There are two kinds of books. Those that originate their own lines, and those that copy the others.

I have a huge advantage over the books that offer openers (Pinny, Cris, Greek): I can pick one area, and spend more time on it. If they spend 2 hours on a sport and I spend 4, I'm going to pick them off in areas.

Intelligent manpower is an expensive commodity in sportsbooks. For the most part, they don't care if the openers are off - it's cheaper to let the market fix it than to pay extra to get slightly sharper lines.

[reno cool]

It's a 2-2 ballgame in the 9th inning, both teams start from the top of the order and have a similar batting performance. The closer for the away team has a 9.06 ERA 1-7 record and has blown 3 saves in the past week. The closer for the home team has a 1.23 ERA 4-1 record and has yet to blow a save all season.

Now lets's suppose that we find out that one of the two teams hits a 2 out grand slam but we don't know which one. By your reckoning, you'd be unable to have an educated guess which team scored it since the occurrence is equally lucky and both equally impossible to predict. Correct? Or, after looking at the stats, can you make an educated guess?

If you're doing regression analysis, hardly

[Shortstop]

it's not just baseball that stats dont help. it's every sport. NFL, NBA, etc.. that's why there's a line there.. whatever stats you think you know more than the books, you don't.. no one here at sbr is ahead of the books... no one.. oddsmakers are 4 steps ahead of everyone here.

This business is all about getting an edge. If you don't have an edge on the line, it's simple, you will not win.. knowing all the stats won't help you.

Great post. Stats don't mean a damn thing except in Fantasy Leagues. If we could predict the outcome of sporting events based on stats, we'd all be wealthy and living on our own islands.

[Art Vandeleigh]

Bettilimbroke, every instinct I have which has been bred into me over the millenium by my ancestors wants to agree with you. How can you possibly measure with any accuracy how well two baseball teams are going to perform on some random June evening in the middle of a 162 game season.

But the facts are, if the strengths and weaknesses of the teams weren't being measured with any accuracy, all you'd have to do is play the dog every day, and smile all the way to the bank at the end of every season.

Someone, somewhere (I don't who or how or where, cuz it sure ain't me) is accurately measuring the strength and weaknesses of these teams. And if they're not doing it with stats then God bless them and their genius minds.

[Wrecktangle]

What are you smoking?

There are two kinds of books. Those that originate their own lines, and those that copy the others.

I have a huge advantage over the books that offer openers (Pinny, Cris, Greek): I can pick one area, and spend more time on it. If they spend 2 hours on a sport and I spend 4, I'm going to pick them off in areas.

Intelligent manpower is an expensive commodity in sportsbooks. For the most part, they don't care if the openers are off - it's cheaper to let the market fix it than to pay extra to get slightly sharper lines.

Justin, why fight 'em? If they think the linesmakers are always right, why convince 'em otherwise? The fact that there are folks with long term posted winning records in NFL sides (at least) won't convince 'em, they'll say it's made up. BTW, these are the same sorts of folks who think the Holocaust didn't happen...and the twin towers was a reactionary-right conspiracy...

[Willie Bee]

A lot of sharps have posted in this thread.

A lot of dulls, too.

[Pancho sanza]

hes not smoking anything, thats the scary part.

[bettilimbroke999]

Bettilimbroke, every instinct I have which has been bred into me over the millenium by my ancestors wants to agree with you. How can you possibly measure with any accuracy how well two baseball teams are going to perform on some random June evening in the middle of a 162 game season.

But the facts are, if the strengths and weaknesses of the teams weren't being measured with any accuracy, all you'd have to do is play the dog every day, and smile all the way to the bank at the end of every season.

Someone, somewhere (I don't who or how or where, cuz it sure ain't me) is accurately measuring the strength and weaknesses of these teams. And if they're not doing it with stats then God bless them and their genius minds.

I completely agree with this statement stats are important in forming the line which is why you can't beat baseball bc that's what the books use to form the line and the information is not accurate enough in determining the winner to make a consistent profit even if you believe the line is slightly higher or lower than it should be. See in baseball you've got teams which are too close in talent to be able to capitalize on knowing that a team is better bc you lose more on losses than make on wins bc of the lines, when the Cards play the Rockies at home we know that the better team (Cards) at home should win which is why their favored every game, they've played 3 of the 4 games and so far the Rockies have dominated the Cards like 11-1, 10-1 in every game, statistically based on pitching ERA, homefield advantage, battiing avgs, team records (home and away) etc you would have to take St. Louis every game especially considering in most they were only slight favorites, you would also have lost every game, whose to blame? Nobody. The truth is if the pitcher has an "off night" or the opposing pitcher pitches great or the opposing team bats better than avg or gets some lucky hits or your team bats subpar or has errors then you lose regardless of whether or not you were on the percentage play. Truth is teams dont really dominate in baseball like they do in other sports, a 70% win record occurs about every decade and there's 30 teams, so about 1 team out of 300 wins more than 2 out of 3 games in a year.

I am not saying MLB can't be beat by anyone (bc theres always exceptions to anything), but far and away for the avg bettor it is the hardest and most stressful sport to bet on, imagine if the Lions played the Steelers and you bet Steelers ML and the Lions blew them out, you had the best against the worst and are broke, in other sports either the parity is much less or the luck factor is much less but the best simply doesn't lose to the worst 1 out of 3 times like they do in MLB

Others of course will disagree with me which is perfectly fine but sports like MLB, women's tennis, etc are so prone to underdog wins that knowing which one is better becomes almost irrelevant which makes them much harder to win at imo but since Ganch, Justin and the other big timers believe MLB is money perhaps they can shed some light on how to get an edge, it seems to me getting a good opening line in MLB before the market has adjusted it may be more important than it is in other sports, I've never really cared about getting my bets in at the opening line and usually just wait til near gametime but in MLB perhaps this is why I lose so consistently, maybe getting the right price is absolutely key since win % tend to be much lower so it may take a much more disciplined and sophisticated better to win at it, for me I really dont care enough to do that so I'm prolly just going to stay away from MLB

[Art Vandeleigh]

.....when the Cards play the Rockies at home we know that the better team (Cards) at home should win which is why their favored every game, they've played 3 of the 4 games and so far the Rockies have dominated the Cards like 11-1, 10-1 in every game, statistically based on pitching ERA, homefield advantage, battiing avgs, team records (home and away) etc you would have to take St. Louis every game especially considering in most they were only slight favorites, you would also have lost every game, whose to blame? Nobody. The truth is if the pitcher has an "off night" or the opposing pitcher pitches great or the opposing team bats better than avg or gets some lucky hits or your team bats subpar or has errors then you lose regardless of whether or not you were on the percentage play.

Well, I'm no authority on whether MLB can be beaten or not, but I definitely think you have to change your train of thought regarding this part of your post.

Imagine you owned a casino. A really small casino. Only one roulette wheel in fact.

You had one customer sitting playing. He was only playing red.

You walked by to see what was going on, looked at the history of the latest spins and saw that 8 reds have just come up in a row. Sacrebleu! The wheel has 18 reds, 18 blacks and one zero (Euro roulette)

I, the house, have 19 of those 37 numbers. I have the advantage each roll. How can this filthy customer get 8 reds in a row and take away my money!

So what do you do? Do you tap the customer on the shoulder and say excuse me sir would you like to switch sides? I (the house) will win if red comes up and you will win if black or zero comes up.

Is that what you do just because St. Louis lost 3 times in a row when you believed you had an edge?

If you believe you had an edge and it didn't happen to show itself in 3 games, is that any different than the house losing on red all those spins? The advantage, if there really is one, will show itself over time.

Anyway, I know this is really obvious but after reading your post and seeing you're making a lot out of a very short time frame maybe a reminder is needed. You gots to think LONG TERM if you have an edge.

[Karayilan9]

Bettillimbroke, stats are meaningless unless you know how to manipulate them.

Nicky
it's not just baseball that stats dont help. it's every sport. NFL, NBA, etc.. that's why there's a line there.. whatever stats you think you know more than the books, you don't.. no one here at sbr is ahead of the books... no one.. oddsmakers are 4 steps ahead of everyone here.

Odds compilers are generally not very well paid and focus on the markets which attract the most money. Oddsmakers don't make books the money, the general public does.

[bettilimbroke999]

Well having tried this for 4 years I'm thinking fairly long-term and I'm not talking about the percentage play with regard to the odds I'm talkin about the the percentage play with regards to win percentage, like you expect the team to win 60% by stat comparison so of course its not going to be an even money bet but you believe you are getting better than fair odds, if MLB bets paid off at even money it would be free money of course I'm talking about analyzing the stats to determine which line gives you an advantage relative to the odds, the problem being there are so many factors and fukin luck is such an incredible factor as well as any single fuk up or any single good play in what amount to 70+ at bats in an avg game can swing the odds dramatically for or against you. I'm really starting to think that the only ppl who win at MLB are those who assess the correct line and make their bets at the opening line, that's something that I dont do and perhaps thats the only way to win at MLB, make your bets knowing what the odds should be before the market corrects them

I like to bet closer to gametime, I just research a game within an hour of its start and then place my bet, apparently in MLB that is not how you win

[Sawyer]

Baseball cannot be beaten? Hey guys, come on!

Nevada Sportsbooks are usually just happy to break even for the baseball season.

NFL is Vegas' moneymaker.
Lines are very sharp in NBA.

Thanks to the 168-game schedule, Baseball is very profitable and it offers the most betting opportunities. Sometimes, it's very unpredictable but that's where our edge comes in! Since the lines are always based on starting pitchers, you can find very good values. Sometimes, after handicapping game you may be surprised that the side you picked is dog. I remember many times I asked myself what the hell this team is underdog here?

Baseball is all about finding value..

[u21c3f6]

If you also like to watch the game, you can make money on live MLB wagering. Liquidity has not been the greatest for live wagering but there is still money that can be made with a minimum of effort. You will still need some "stats", but different stats than one would use for before the game let it ride wagers.

Joe.

[reno cool]

So you've discovered most gamblers will lose. If you're using the same stats in the same manner the typical bettor is using you will most definitely be playing with a disadvantage. Don't make the mistake of thinking that you're average loser doesn't watch games or look at stats, because they certainly do that.

[Formulawiz]

Taco (lol) you don't know anything about gambling. You're a professional dick. Leave the sports wagering to us pros.

Guys I don't understand why there is so much bickering going on. I thought the intent of this sports forum was to help each other win. If someone has a solid handicapping idea, I think it would be nice for those who call themselves so called professionals to share some ideas with others. Sharing handicapping ideas with others can only improve a system's performance.

[smitch124]

Guys I don't understand why there is so much bickering going on. I thought the intent of this sports forum was to help each other win. If someone has a solid handicapping idea, I think it would be nice for those who call themselves so called professionals to share some ideas with others. Sharing handicapping ideas with others can only improve a system's performance.

Ya Bread, quit hating!!

[Karayilan9]

Maybe MLB isn't for you, try another sport, ever tried soccer? it can be a goldmine especially on the US books.

[bettilimbroke999]

I tried soccer last year and I think I won a lil bit but it was the most nerve-racking game ever, waiting an 1 hr for a score and losing on ties so basically if other team ever lucked in a goal it was game over, just wasn't for me but I understand why soccer hooligans are so insane if that was my favorite sport I'd be a complete psycho too, you're always one lucky kick away from disaster even when you're winning

Sports like women's tennis, soccer and MLB are for a different breed of gambler I like to either feel very confident that I've won or that I've lost my bet at some point during the game, in those sports that's a rarity just when you think your 2 run lead is going to cash they walk the lead off batter and you have to sweat 3 guys squaring a pitch for a home run to tie it or walking/hitting the next batter then a double and your tied with man on 2nd no outs, home run you lose when like 1 min before you were counting the cash

[Karayilan9]

Bettillimbroke
I tried soccer last year and I think I won a lil bit but it was the most nerve-racking game ever, waiting an 1 hr for a score and losing on ties so basically if other team ever lucked in a goal it was game over, just wasn't for me but I understand why soccer hooligans are so insane if that was my favorite sport I'd be a complete psycho too, you're always one lucky kick away from disaster even when you're winning

If your knowledge of soccer is anything like your understanding of MLB then this could be the root cause of your problem.

In my opinion whatever sport your going to wager on, you have to know it inside out. Every sport has its own psychology, only once your fully inside the sport can you get a feel for this. Also every sports betting has its loopholes, you say you've been burnt on draws after your team was winning, there are ways around that.

[lakerboy]

baseball is bullshit

[Grinder]

go back to school dude.. and don't forget to sign up some stats courses.

[bettilimbroke999]

You don't have to be a genius to realize a 2.8 pitcher oughta beat a 5.4 ERA given relatively equal batting lineups, naturally the 5.4 ERA is favored for some unknown reason (-125) and up 6 runs to 3 Braves/Pirates, studyin stats is pointless when it comes to baseball, throw in some unexpected event like a homer/error etc. and all the stats studyin in the world doesn't matter that just changed the entire outcome of the game and can occur at anytime no way to calculate for things like that