Stats mean nothing in baseball, absolutely nothing!

[Peep]

Well, I guess you are just another bettilimbroke who has no ideas about probability

No, he is saying it is "improbable" that you can hit over 70%, unless everything you play is better than -200.

And if he is not saying that, I will.

But that is what Matchbook x-bets are for.

[reno cool]

I think that baseball capping is "pure luck" in that the line itself is amazingly accurate. Teams win according to their odds. For example, -200 favorites win more or less 66% of the time.

Taking all the -195, -200 and -205 lined games in my Database, I have 597 trials. The favorite wins 383 of these. 64.1%.

Not sure what that really tells us. Does it preclude or make it unlikely that some of those had value?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Well wtf do you use to predict the outcome if not for ERA and batting avgs? That's all baseball is is pitching and hitting, what other variables are in play other than weather and injuries, perhaps slight differences in fielding? What variables could possibly be more important than hitting and pitching?

For beginners, do a search on sabermetrics.

[Justin7]

Umm. If you're basing those numbers off of closing lines, all I have to say is... DUH! Why would you expect there to be any value remaining in the closing number exactly?

Ding Ding Ding! It's refreshing to see people with a clue.

[Chi_archie]

Well wtf do you use to predict the outcome if not for ERA and batting avgs? That's all baseball is is pitching and hitting, what other variables are in play other than weather and injuries, perhaps slight differences in fielding? What variables could possibly be more important than hitting and pitching?

[Peep]

Not sure what that really tells us. Does it preclude or make it unlikely that some of those had value?

It says that the closing line is accurate.

For those geniuses who can predict line moment, well, great, life is good. You guys will always make money, as the closing line is always the most accurate, and you can always buy your numbers at a vaue price.

I can't predict line movement.

[tacomax]

I dont personally believe its a sport that anyone really has an edge on but that doesn't mean that you can't win money at it, if ur hot ur hot, you can pick winners all day long if your hot, I'll tail ya for some small plays for entertainment if ur on a roll, I just personally bet MLB very lightly considering that I've lost the last 4 years in a row.

That's akin to saying no-one can run the 100m in under 10 seconds since you can't do it in under 10 seconds.

[tacomax]

Well wtf do you use to predict the outcome if not for ERA and batting avgs? That's all baseball is is pitching and hitting, what other variables are in play other than weather and injuries, perhaps slight differences in fielding? What variables could possibly be more important than hitting and pitching?

Without going into the more subtle details, you might find that home field advantage plays a tiny part.

[donjuan]

It says that the closing line is accurate.

No, it doesn't. All it says is that the closing line is unbiased.

[bettilimbroke999]

It says that the closing line is accurate.

For those geniuses who can predict line moment, well, great, life is good. You guys will always make money, as the closing line is always the most accurate, and you can always buy your numbers at a vaue price.

I can't predict line movement.

Me neither, if you can predict line movements in any sport you can make profits off taking advantage of the off opening lines but for those of us who can't and bet into the closing line (which makes up the vast majority of MLB bettors I think) this is irrelevant and the analysis of the accuracy of the closing numbers is key in determining whether the majority will be able to beat the lines in the long-run. If you have a model that tells you what the closing line will be before the lines even come out then certainly that would be a valuable tool, feel free to design one of those and sell it to us clueless MLB gamblers for additional profits.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You're insane.

[bettilimbroke999]

I've got nearly 6k posts on a degenerate gambling site, that's obvious

[tacomax]

I've got nearly 6k posts on a degenerate gambling site, that's obvious

MonkeyF0cker has more posts. He's not insane.

[bettilimbroke999]

MonkeyF0cker has more posts. He's not insane.

Debateable but I suppose its not a lock for insanity, though my non-posting friends beg to differ

[reno cool]

Me neither, if you can predict line movements in any sport you can make profits off taking advantage of the off opening lines but for those of us who can't and bet into the closing line (which makes up the vast majority of MLB bettors I think) this is irrelevant and the analysis of the accuracy of the closing numbers is key in determining whether the majority will be able to beat the lines in the long-run. If you have a model that tells you what the closing line will be before the lines even come out then certainly that would be a valuable tool, feel free to design one of those and sell it to us clueless MLB gamblers for additional profits.

here's your problem. You keep insisting on the majority winning. Of course the majority can not win. Surely you realize the books couldn't exist if it was any different.
The whole point is to find ways to stay ahead of other players.

[bettilimbroke999]

I see your point, perhaps using the word majority along with winning was a lil illogical since the books wouldn't be in business if that were the case but idk it just seems like an incredible amount of work to be able to predict line movements, I mean dont the books have sharps who come up with the opening lines, just seems tough to consistently outsharp the sharps but I really dont know how hard it is since I've never really tried but it sounds hard

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you can beat the books, how much would you require in salary to work for one? How much would a book be willing to pay multiple people who can beat said books to set their lines? How expensive is it for a book to be relatively close to the numbers and allowing the market to determine the price?

Answers: A lot. Not enough. Not as much as the alternative.

[Fiasco]

If you could get the data of every player on every team in each given ball park against the opponent's given pitching staff, applying the line-ups success against probable pitcher pitchers you could for the most part gain a since of how the game will go... different players hit better against different pitchers, and different pitchers are more successful against different goal-oriented or structured batting line-ups... If you know these numbers, and can accurately develop a statistical model to exploit the lines then you can clearly profit and show success capping baseball... good luck finding the stats needed and putting them to use for one... it is a very time consuming sport... or so I've found. It goes beyond pitcher A's ERA vs Team B's Runs per game or batting avg... or whatever you think...

plus in baseball you can use weather to gain a slight edge (notably if you live near a ball park and can recognize the differences in actual weather and weather mans report)

I know nothing though

[Art Vandeleigh]

I understand and agree believe me I'm upset that for the next 3 months all there is to bet is baseball as well bc I know that if I do it will most likely cost me money.

It's not really that I'm tryin to tell ppl not to bet baseball bc even though the lines are very hard to beat its still fun to throw some cash on your favorite team, but this is more an argument with those that claim MLB is so profitable year after year and that the reason I lose is bc I dont cap the games well enough. The truth is virtually no one could cap the games well enough the lines are only off by 2% so unless you're the most accurate capper in history you're prolly not going to make a profit in the long-run but the good news is the lines are so accurate that you prolly won't lose much in the long-run either bc there's not really a right or wrong side so if you bet with dime lines or less it will probably be slow losses or some slight profits if you're lucky.

This is a pretty good post although quite a few people here will disagree with you.

I think, well for me at least it's the title of this thread that's phrased incorrectly, since you have conceded in a previous post that

...I completely agree with this statement stats are important in forming the line which is why you can't beat baseball bc that's what the books use to form the line...

So I think the title of this thread as is

"Stats mean nothing in baseball, absolutely nothing!"

is misleading


The correct title of this thread should be (it's a long one - that's what she said!)

"Stats Do Mean Somethin' in Baseball Because Stats are Important in Forming the Line and Get it Super Close and Accurate to a Couple of Percent - but You Can't do Nothin with Stats Beyond what the Sportsbooks do Cuz Their Statistical Models are so Accurate They Are Impossible to Do Any Better so After That It's All Luck and you Can't Never Win"

There, that seems to be a more accurate title to this thread for what you're trying to get across.

[bettilimbroke999]

Great post agreed that would've been a better thread title but SBR character limits forced me to keep it short and sweet

Somebody hit the fast forward button to football season plz, football season just blows MLB out of the water

[reno cool]

No, it doesn't. All it says is that the closing line is unbiased.

interesting concept. I believe the above mentioned stats only prove that you would have lost $ blindly betting dogs or favorites at given odds. But, we don't expect that to be any different.
That's not the same as saying someones method could not produce +expectancy betting some or all of those games.

[tacomax]

"Stats Do Mean Somethin' in Baseball Because Stats are Important in Forming the Line and Get it Super Close and Accurate to a Couple of Percent - but You Can't do Nothin with Stats Beyond what the Sportsbooks do Cuz Their Statistical Models are so Accurate They Are Impossible to Do Any Better so After That It's All Luck and you Can't Never Win"

There, that seems to be a more accurate title to this thread for what you're trying to get across.

Justin7 said recently that he used to set lines for a book. And he said that he would spend less time in his analysis that your average $40 bettor. If you think opening lines are done my statistical models so complex that it is impossible to do them any better yourself then...erm...think again.

[Formulawiz]

Me neither, if you can predict line movements in any sport you can make profits off taking advantage of the off opening lines but for those of us who can't and bet into the closing line (which makes up the vast majority of MLB bettors I think) this is irrelevant and the analysis of the accuracy of the closing numbers is key in determining whether the majority will be able to beat the lines in the long-run. If you have a model that tells you what the closing line will be before the lines even come out then certainly that would be a valuable tool, feel free to design one of those and sell it to us clueless MLB gamblers for additional profits.

Your a lucky man. Here try this site their money lines are right on

http://www.sportrends.com/team_ml.htm

This takes the bullpen into consideration

http://www.sportrends.com/team_bullpens.htm

Follow the instructions.

[Dark Horse]

Stats serve a purpose, but are no end in themselves. If you can put a number to every baseball game, then all you have to do is set a minimum edge as trigger point, vary your bet size accordingly, and you will win in spite of picking only 50%.

[jimbojpc]

You are walking a slippery slope here?

[Dark Horse]

The ability to determine your edge is key to all forms of betting.

When people say that it is better to flat bet, they usually swallow the second part of the sentence, which goes something like: 'because I have no f*cking clue how to determine my edge'.

When people say that stats are useless, they also swallow the second part of the sentence... ('because I have no f*cking clue how to read them').

Absolute statements in a world of probability... it's amazing the stuff people swallow.

[Kaiser Jacob]

Statistic's represent objectivity, the only profitable way to wager. The subjective nature of wagering is what allows for error, and is what allows for the winners (bookmakers) and losers (gamblers). Reducing risk, modeling for the highest probability outcome and using proper arbitrage is the only way to beat the bookmakers.

[jjgold]

Stats I guess have some place in capping but you need to know how and when to apply them.

[Flying Dutchman]

Hey, JJ!

Stats I guess have some place in capping but you need to know how and when to apply them.

JJ, I didn't know you posted here. I am a big fan of you from another forum long ago.

I normally hang out in the Think Tank. I tried to send you a PM but it is disallowed. If you can PM me?

Thanks!

[coldhardfacts]

The key is knowing WHICH statistics are important, and how the sides matchup based on those statistics. I'll grant you though, anyone who bases their wagering solely on statistics will lose. Other factors, such as the recent performance of teams must be considered. And, while the baseball lines are generally accurate, on any day where there's a full card there are almost always a couple of mistakes. The most common of which is overpricing a top pitcher against a hot team or an undervalued pitcher, particularly on the road. The key, like all other investment, is getting VALUE for your investment.

I still think this notion about beating the closing line is ludicrous. About half the time the line moves (from the opening line) in the direction of the winner, and about half the time it moves in the direction of the loser. Sure, if you know which way the line's going to move you'll always get the best of it. But how many people are able to predict that consistently? And, even if you can, if you can't handicap correctly, you'll still be a loser in the long run. Just not as big of a loser.

[durito]

I still think this notion about beating the closing line is ludicrous. About half the time the line moves (from the opening line) in the direction of the winner, and about half the time it moves in the direction of the loser.

So: Why are sportsbooks still in business?

[coldhardfacts]

So: Why are sportsbooks still in business?

I don't know. I'll ask Lenny.

Seriously, the reason they're in business is because most people are morons, to put it bluntly. I'm not saying that OP is a moron, but his statement that ERA and batting average are the only statistical factors to consider when betting baseball are indicative of why he is a consistent loser.

[durito]

ERA and batting average shouldn't be considered at all.

I don't know shit about modeling baseball and I can tell you that.

But, there is a reason that limits are way higher right before the game than at openers.

[coldhardfacts]

But, there is a reason that limits are way higher right before the game than at openers.

Yes, of course. It's because there's less time to adjust the line to even out the wagering if they get hammered on one side. It's about minimizing risk, isn't it?

[durito]

Yes, of course. It's because there's less time to adjust the line to even out the wagering if they get hammered on one side. It's about minimizing risk, isn't it?

Then shouldn't it be reversed?