Stats mean nothing in baseball, absolutely nothing!

[durito]

If their models are so sharp and they move the lines simply to balance money, all you have to do is play against line moves and you would clean up.

[Nicky Santoro]

in every sport, it don't matter what you know.. the line is already applied into it. if you got a lineup of all .224 hitters, then line will be +260... if your whole team is full of stars, and C.C. is pitching, then take them, but you will lay -340.. knowing stats is useless..

the only way it means something is if you can apply that info and know when a line is weak and play it and it moves your way.. just beat the closing #'s and you'll be ok.. just bet based on what you think will win, well, forget it.. might as well just hand them your money, or give it to charity..

[bettilimbroke999]

You can win in MLB and NHL but its not enough for 6+ months of work
I dont understand why more books dont offer dime lines

You aint the only one who doesn't understand, books that stick to 20 cent lines on baseball should be downgraded and I'm absolutely serious about this, I consider it on par with stealing from the customer.

5Dimes, BetJam, BetPhoenix, hell even Bodog offer the dime line, Pinnacle (can't play there without spending all day jumping through hoops bc I'm in US) offers an 8 cent line, Matchbook the best book available to US has a standard 1 or 2 cent line

Now are we supposed to believe all those books are at least twice as sharp as the Greek, Bookmaker, Legendz? Is Bodog twice as sharp as the Greek? I mean fuk why not make it 30 cent lines or 40 why even give the gambler a chance? Absolutely unreal and the reason I get so pissed off is one of those is the easiest to deposit to, has poker and is one of my favorite books but 20 cent lines on lottoball come on you gotta be kidding me

Also what's up with 30 cent lines on props, there's nothing more coinflippy in the world then an after odds "to score 1st or a score in the 1st" bet and they feel the need to charge 50% greater juice, I swear man BURN YOUR MONEY, just get a can of gasoline poor it allover your wallet and burn it before playin 20 and 30 cent line baseball

[Zelda]

Only with line shopping you can get an advantage. That, or chasing moving lines.
But If you think that you capped a game better then Cris/Greek/Pinny after they somehow agreed on a market, at any given time and that includes openers, you are just ****ing crazy.

Talking MLB only btw...weird russian soccer leagues, yep there the average forum Johnny could move a Pinny line

[donjuan]

Only with line shopping you can get an advantage. That, or chasing moving lines.
But If you think that you capped a game better then Cris/Greek/Pinny after they somehow agreed on a market, at any given time and that includes openers, you are just ****ing crazy.

Talking MLB only btw...weird russian soccer leagues, yep there the average forum Johnny could move a Pinny line

You really shouldn't project your shortcomings on others.

[specialedbob]

thanks for the good info.

[durito]

Only with line shopping you can get an advantage. That, or chasing moving lines.
But If you think that you capped a game better then Cris/Greek/Pinny after they somehow agreed on a market, at any given time and that includes openers, you are just ****ing crazy.

Talking MLB only btw...weird russian soccer leagues, yep there the average forum Johnny could move a Pinny line

1) pinny copies whatever number greek or bookmaker open just with a lower hold

2) who do you think is moving those lines that people chase elsewhere?

3) Smaller markets are of course far easier, i have no interest in playing nfl full game sides, but that doesnt mean other people cant

[Zelda]

1) pinny copies whatever number greek or bookmaker open just with a lower hold

2) who do you think is moving those lines that people chase elsewhere?

1. No. If they have a slightly different opinion, they open with a line that will force CRIS to move pretty soon. For the NBA Greek won´t even have a line on most games before Pinny/Cris estabilished a number. I watch most of those opening "shows", i don´t know if you do but i guess not.

2. Not the people on this forum. + there are other reasons for lines to move, not just Pro/Syndicate plays.

[Pokerjoe]

The argument that "stats means nothing" is ridiculously easily busted: if you know nothing about the sport, and I have the stats, my estimations will be much better than yours.

The argument that "stats won't enable you to beat the bookie" isn't so easily busted. In fact if you amend it to read "VANILLA stats won't enable you to beat the bookie," you'll be right. Everything obvious is in the price.

But to say that there are no chocolate stats that can beat the bookie is like saying there are no black swans, and none of us would be dumb enough to say that, would we?

[durito]

they won't ever open a scalpable number at cris

greek nba comes out before pinny all the time

[durito]

gonna pick a random day from last year

feb 1

orlando @ toronto, greek & bookmaker open at 5.5 at 2:21 pm the day before, pinny opens at 5.5 at 3:37 pm
cle @ det, greek & bookmaker open at 4 at 2:21, pinny 4.5 at 4:02
min @ bos greek & bookmaker 14./5 at 2:21, pinny 13.5 at 4:01

it's like this almost every day
pinnacle will almost never originate a major US sport (except for WNBA). they wait until bookmaker/greek settle

[Zelda]

Well i guess we would have to set a time frame...i had enough scalps between Cris/Pinny on NBA spreads 2-20 mins after they opened the line. So does that count as scalpable opener? Who gives a shit, point is they don´t just copy.
Afterwards everyone copies Pinny on most lines, and that´s a fact.

[bettilimbroke999]

The argument that "stats means nothing" is ridiculously easily busted: if you know nothing about the sport, and I have the stats, my estimations will be much better than yours.

The argument that "stats won't enable you to beat the bookie" isn't so easily busted. In fact if you amend it to read "VANILLA stats won't enable you to beat the bookie," you'll be right. Everything obvious is in the price.

But to say that there are no chocolate stats that can beat the bookie is like saying there are no black swans, and none of us would be dumb enough to say that, would we?

Clearly I was referring to beating the bookie (obviously not an easy thing to do but there are tons of guys on here that claim baseball is the easiest sport to win at), yes if there were no odds and everything was 50/50 we would all be doing some basic analysis of stats and win-loss records and living in mansions but other than at deposit only books like Cascade that's not a reality so we have to try to pick the right side after taking into consideration the odds

[Zelda]

Whoever says MLB is easy to beat is either smoking crack, a tout, or just someone who wants to look clever.
No main sport is easy to beat for 99% of all bettors, you would have to start looking into minor leagues..

[reno cool]

In that case you may want to examine your belief more closely.
Why, after all, would you voluntarily allow a strong belief to take the place of an unknown fact?

Beliefs take on different shapes and forms. There is the self-hypnosis that has no value. There is the hypothesis, the initial belief in a possibility in order to examine it. There is dogma, the inflexible group hypnosis that shuts out all questioning.

Beliefs are irrelevant unless you're willing to destroy them. If a belief withstands every attempt at its total annihilation, it can no longer be considered a belief. A problem is that most people tend to protect their beliefs, rather than test and destroy them.

horse, we need a philosophy/poetry sub forum just for you