Stats mean nothing in baseball, absolutely nothing!

[Grinder]

You don't have to be a genius to realize a 2.8 pitcher oughta beat a 5.4 ERA given relatively equal batting lineups, naturally the 5.4 ERA is favored for some unknown reason (-125) and up 6 runs to 3 Braves/Pirates, studyin stats is pointless when it comes to baseball, throw in a homer every game and all the stats studyin in the world doesn't matter that just changed everything

For the very last time, go take some stats course first.. U realize how amazing it is.. believe me, it's worth the money to pay for education. your statement once again proves you have no stats education.

[Grinder]

For the very last time, go take some stats course first.. U realize how amazing it is.. believe me, it's worth the money to pay for education. your statement once again proves you have no stats education.

Here is my treat for you. Take A's ML tonight. Big.. I had $2 dimes on them to win. GL

[bettilimbroke999]

I dont need a stats education, I'm not gonna spend 50k to get an education to try to hit enough MLB picks to breakeven, the money you spent on education would've been better used as toilet paper

[bettilimbroke999]

Here is my treat for you. Take A's ML tonight. Big.. I had $2 dimes on them to win. GL

I'll put a small play on it, I imagine A's will lose by 10 now

[Grinder]

I dont need a stats education, I'm not gonna spend 50k to get an education to try to hit enough MLB picks to breakeven, the money you spent on education would've been better used as toilet paper

hahah.. "the money you spent on education would've been better used as toilet paper".. That's funny you just said that.

[tacomax]

You don't have to be a genius to realize a 2.8 pitcher oughta beat a 5.4 ERA given relatively equal batting lineups, naturally the 5.4 ERA is favored for some unknown reason (-125)

You may want to consider that a model based purely on the ERAs of the starting pitchers is a little limited in terms of calculating an accurate probability model.

You may want to consider picking up a stats book as well.

[bettilimbroke999]

Look math geniuses fukin beautiful mind wannabes I'm not gonna pickup a stats book, I can tell what a fukin avg is on my own I dont need to go to college and spend 50k of daddy's money for 4 years to figure out that 2.8 is less than 5.4

[bettilimbroke999]

I've got my one brilliant idea....

Baseball capping is pure luck

[Grinder]

I've got my one brilliant idea....

Baseball capping is pure luck

Wrong again buddy. Knowing stats will definitely give you an edge on picking games with higher probability of winning.

[u21c3f6]

I've got my one brilliant idea....

Baseball capping is pure luck

With all due respect and in all honesty, your one brilliant idea will prevent you from ever becoming a profitable baseball bettor IMO.

Joe.

[bettilimbroke999]

Here is my treat for you. Take A's ML tonight. Big.. I had $2 dimes on them to win. GL

A's down 3-0 already, thanks for the tip genius

I think you and crazyl use the same capping model

Better reread that stats book

[Peep]

I think that baseball capping is "pure luck" in that the line itself is amazingly accurate. Teams win according to their odds. For example, -200 favorites win more or less 66% of the time.

Taking all the -195, -200 and -205 lined games in my Database, I have 597 trials. The favorite wins 383 of these. 64.1%.

[bettilimbroke999]

I think that baseball capping is "pure luck" in that the line itself is amazingly accurate. Teams win according to their odds. For example, -200 favorites win more or less 66% of the time.

Taking all the -195, -200 and -205 lined games in my Database, I have 597 trials. The favorite wins 383 of these. 64.1%.

Agreed and very sharp post, further evidence of what I already suspected, the line is not off by nearly enough to make any effort to beat it with statistical analysis worthwhile, bet MLB for fun with what you can afford to lose it is one of the toughest sports in the world to get an edge on

[tacomax]

I dont need to go to college and spend 50k of daddy's money for 4 years to figure out that 2.8 is less than 5.4

Costs a lot less than $50K and can be largely understood by a relative novice:

http://www.amazon.com/Sharp-Sports-Betting-Stanford-Wong/dp/0935926240

[lakerboy]

Agreed and very sharp post, further evidence of what I already suspected, the line is not off by nearly enough to make any effort to beat it with statistical analysis worthwhile, bet MLB for fun with what you can afford to lose it is one of the toughest sports in the world to get an edge on

baseball is the hardest game to cap. the only reason some guys are getting pissed at you is cause for the next 3 months those idiots have very little to play and just want to say that you can profit on baseball. of the four major sports the nba and nfl are the only ones worth time analyzing. ANY team can win on baseball as its alot less likely for the clippers to win in boston garden and more likely the royals win in yankee stadium. i love baseball but betting on it is stupid and a waste of money

[bettilimbroke999]

Costs a lot less than $50K and can be largely understood by a relative novice:

http://www.amazon.com/Sharp-Sports-B.../dp/0935926240

Could be good for betting other sports so I appreciate the link but I'm at the point of believing statistical analysis is pointless in baseball, read Peep's above post for further reason why, 600 games and the lines are off by like 2%. Hardly worth the effort and risk to spend all day trying to bet a -195 true line at -191 relying on perfect capping of games to beat 98% accurate lines

[xyz]

Reading this thread gives me confirmation that there are all different types of sports bettors out there. This is a very good thing. Otherwise, there would not be much money out there to be had. Somehow the books need to afford those bonus, servers, ads, human power, ** and ** fees, ... I am glad this thread was linked both at the think tank and players' talk.

[bettilimbroke999]

baseball is the hardest game to cap. the only reason some guys are getting pissed at you is cause for the next 3 months those idiots have very little to play and just want to say that you can profit on baseball. of the four major sports the nba and nfl are the only ones worth time analyzing. ANY team can win on baseball as its alot less likely for the clippers to win in boston garden and more likely the royals win in yankee stadium. i love baseball but betting on it is stupid and a waste of money

I understand and agree believe me I'm upset that for the next 3 months all there is to bet is baseball as well bc I know that if I do it will most likely cost me money.

It's not really that I'm tryin to tell ppl not to bet baseball bc even though the lines are very hard to beat its still fun to throw some cash on your favorite team, but this is more an argument with those that claim MLB is so profitable year after year and that the reason I lose is bc I dont cap the games well enough. The truth is virtually no one could cap the games well enough the lines are only off by 2% so unless you're the most accurate capper in history you're prolly not going to make a profit in the long-run but the good news is the lines are so accurate that you prolly won't lose much in the long-run either bc there's not really a right or wrong side so if you bet with dime lines or less it will probably be slow losses or some slight profits if you're lucky.

[Grinder]

A's down 3-0 already, thanks for the tip genius

I think you and crazyl use the same capping model

Better reread that stats book

Wrong again buddy... it's 3-4 A's T 7th.. So far everything you said in this thread is wrong.. Just admitted... You have no knowledge about stats.... just to prove to you stats works for me.. click on links below to see games I posted yesterday & today... I just joined yesterday.... you can search all the post I have & see I'm not B.Sing you. I'm not trying to impress you neither.. I just want to have some fun & share these info. I work as an engineer and make enough money. I've been consistently winning in sports betting.. another huge income for me GL all

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/192021-grinders-monday-mlb-6-8-picks.html#post1921562

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/191724-sunday-nite-baseball-6-7-phillies-vs-dodgers.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/191708-giants-vs-marlins-weather-update.html

[bettilimbroke999]

Wrong again buddy... it's 3-4 A's T 7th.. So far everything you said in this thread is wrong.. Just admitted... You have no knowledge about stats.... just to prove to you stats works for me.. click on links below to see games I posted yesterday & today... I just joined yesterday.... you can search all the post I have & see I'm not B.Sing you. I'm not trying to impress you neither.. I just want to have some fun & share these info. I work as an engineer and make enough money. I've been consistently winning in sports betting.. another huge income for me GL all

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/192021-grinders-monday-mlb-6-8-picks.html#post1921562

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/191724-sunday-nite-baseball-6-7-phillies-vs-dodgers.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...er-update.html

Hey that's fine I'm not tryin to offend, I actually have a small play on the A's due to your pick as well so nice to see them comeback, I hope they win. I dont personally believe its a sport that anyone really has an edge on but that doesn't mean that you can't win money at it, if ur hot ur hot, you can pick winners all day long if your hot, I'll tail ya for some small plays for entertainment if ur on a roll, I just personally bet MLB very lightly considering that I've lost the last 4 years in a row.

[Grinder]

Hey that's fine I'm not tryin to offend, I actually have a small play on the A's due to your pick as well so nice to see them comeback, I hope they win. I dont personally believe its a sport that anyone really has an edge on but that doesn't mean that you can't win money at it, if ur hot ur hot, you can pick winners all day long if your hot, I'll tail ya for some small plays for entertainment if ur on a roll, I just personally bet MLB very lightly considering that I've lost the last 4 years in a row.

Wrong again buddy... it's not about hot or not hot, lucky or unlucky.. of course, luck always a part of everything....
But if you use the stats & other factors precisely.. you will have an edge picking the winners... Winnning in sports betting is super hard.. Not many people can cap any major sports with winner percentage over 80%.. My picks winning probability is around .72.

3-4 A's bottom 8th. 1 more inn to go... I'll be collecting another $2k plus $200 on 3 teams parley. Padres, and Yanks won already...

[bettilimbroke999]

Nice pick, nice comeback from 3 runs down, I agree that picking winners consistently in MLB is super hard.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I think that baseball capping is "pure luck" in that the line itself is amazingly accurate. Teams win according to their odds. For example, -200 favorites win more or less 66% of the time.

Taking all the -195, -200 and -205 lined games in my Database, I have 597 trials. The favorite wins 383 of these. 64.1%.

Umm. If you're basing those numbers off of closing lines, all I have to say is... DUH! Why would you expect there to be any value remaining in the closing number exactly?

[Grinder]

Hey bettilimbroke.. I can work as a sports capper... but nah.. I have a great job already Good to see you took A's tonight. More to come tomorrow buddy.. watch for my picks GL tomorrow.

[MonkeyF0cker]

You don't have to be a genius to realize a 2.8 pitcher oughta beat a 5.4 ERA given relatively equal batting lineups, naturally the 5.4 ERA is favored for some unknown reason (-125) and up 6 runs to 3 Braves/Pirates, studyin stats is pointless when it comes to baseball, throw in some unexpected event like a homer/error etc. and all the stats studyin in the world doesn't matter that just changed the entire outcome of the game and can occur at anytime no way to calculate for things like that

Maybe if you did a little research you'd realize how poorly ERA and batting average stack up as bivariate predictors.

[Enforcer_23]

Baseball is the hardest sport ( well known to public) to cap period i think. One thing ive learned.. stay away from teams on streaks BAD or GOOD. Whenever one teams win or losses 8 in a row and my dumbass jumps on for the 9th.. they lose that streak somehow that night . Dont bet against a streak either.

[donjuan]

My picks winning probability is around .72.

Which is also completely ****ing meaningless unless you're talking about this specific game in which case WTFBBQ.

[homerbush]

Baseball is the hardest sport ( well known to public) to cap period i think. One thing ive learned.. stay away from teams on streaks BAD or GOOD. Whenever one teams win or losses 8 in a row and my dumbass jumps on for the 9th.. they lose that streak somehow that night . Dont bet against a streak either.

So I take it you are not riding the A's and Rockies this week?

[bettilimbroke999]

Maybe if you did a little research you'd realize how poorly ERA and batting average stack up as bivariate predictors.

Well wtf do you use to predict the outcome if not for ERA and batting avgs? That's all baseball is is pitching and hitting, what other variables are in play other than weather and injuries, perhaps slight differences in fielding? What variables could possibly be more important than hitting and pitching?

[Grinder]

Which is also completely ****ing meaningless unless you're talking about this specific game in which case WTFBBQ.

Well, I guess you are just another bettilimbroke who has no ideas about probability

[homerbush]

one thing to keep in mind in baseball is corrections. At some point Dodgers are going to have a slump. That pitcher with a 6.60 ERA and a career 3.80 ERA is probably going to string together a few good games. The Rockies bats are going to break out (I thought that would happen at Coors) . etc. etc. Can you predict this stuff accurately in baseball? Or look at it another way. Is Derek Lowe really a -220 pitcher tomorrow?

[donjuan]

Fail. Saying you have a 72% winning percentage in a sport like baseball with varying odds is completely meaningless. It's also blatantly false over any reasonable sample.

[Enforcer_23]

So I take it you are not riding the A's and Rockies this week?

Nope. So many people are in the hole betting Cardinals to win agst the Rockies after the sweep today . Brewers will give those shitty Rockies a rude wake up call in the next couple days .

[bettilimbroke999]

Well, I guess you are just another bettilimbroke who has no ideas about probability

I'm in tha dark here, ya understand, I'm in tha dark!!!!

[homerbush]

Nope. So many people are in the hole betting Cardinals to win agst the Rockies after the sweep today . Brewers will give those shitty Rockies a rude wake up call in the next couple days .

I don't know what to think. I still hold out the Rockies are better than their record suggests, a few of those 1 run losses go their way and their record changes greatly. I also remember last year the Brewers pounding the Rockies in the same situation so who knows.