Capy's 2013 NFL Thread

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  • Black Hills
    SBR Hustler
    • 01-26-09
    • 81

    #211
    Keep up the great work, your definitely one of the best on this forum.
    Comment
    • Capybara
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-17-08
      • 11803

      #212
      Originally posted by Black Hills
      Keep up the great work, your definitely one of the best on this forum.
      Thanks, Man, nice of you to say!

      Okay, MNF:

      NY Jets PK, -110 (3x)

      I can't believe I'm backing the Jets, but the fact is I think they may have found something recently with their run game, which if it's rolling can turn Sanchez from a joke into an actual functional NFL quarterback. I also don't really like Locker's chances against the Jets' defense. He hasn't really found his form yet, and the Jets can cause problems and confuse even established QBs. Plus he's lost one of his weapons in Jared Cook. Obviously Chris Johnson is a wildcard, but in my opinion the Jets will contain him and will find a way to win this game.

      NY Jets/Tenn Under 41, -107 (1x)
      Comment
      • Capybara
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 08-17-08
        • 11803

        #213
        Oops, can't forget my favorite bet to make:

        NY Jets/Tenn 1H Under 20.5, -105 (1x)
        Comment
        • Dexter
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-24-08
          • 25829

          #214
          that TD sucked....
          Comment
          • Dexter
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-24-08
            • 25829

            #215
            Originally posted by wildcats99
            Wow, man, you keep killin it.

            Don't know why you dont't have more followers in here, but keep it up, Cappy!
            cause hes not a showboat like most people when he wins....great work capy
            Comment
            • Capybara
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-17-08
              • 11803

              #216
              Hey, what's up, Dex? Thanks for the kind words, bud.

              This is seriously some of the worst coaching and playing I've ever seen tonight. As horrible as Sanchez is, the play designs, the shifting QBs, it's like total sabotage of any chance they'd have. Their D is playing so well, though, I'm still holding out hope here.
              Comment
              • Capybara
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-17-08
                • 11803

                #217
                Jets, make sure not to call any running plays. Just have Sanchez drop back every play so he can miss guys, throw a pick, or get sacked. This is seriously unreal. If I were a Jets fan, I'm pretty sure I'd have offed myself by now.
                Comment
                • Dexter
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-24-08
                  • 25829

                  #218
                  i dont know if youre reading my thread....im saying the same shit to myself. lol

                  its unreal....just run the ball with greene every down.
                  Comment
                  • Dexter
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-24-08
                    • 25829

                    #219
                    whats left to say my man.....2 nice runs, pass and INT....
                    Comment
                    • Capybara
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 08-17-08
                      • 11803

                      #220
                      Sanchez should never start another game. Ever. He does shit in his fourth year (fifth?) that any half-decent football player stopped doing in his sophomore year of college. I can't even believe it. You're seriously just gonna throw it up into triple coverage for no reason? The shit is amazing. I feel bad for not just Jets fans but Jets players!!!

                      And a fumbled snap and that's a rap. Absolutely amazing.
                      Comment
                      • Capybara
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-17-08
                        • 11803

                        #221
                        Originally posted by Capybara

                        NY Jets PK, -110 (3x)

                        NY Jets/Tenn Under 41, -107 (1x)

                        NY Jets/Tenn 1H Under 20.5, -105 (1x)
                        Well, glad I softened the Jets blow with the under plays. And crazy as it may sound, I'd make that Jets play again. This game was SO theirs if that coaching staff had a friggin clue. They were dominating on D and needed simply to use their run game and be conservative on offense to win the game. Instead, they kept dropping Sanchez back so he could make huge mistakes and destroy drives. Seriously some of the worst game-planning and coaching I've ever seen.

                        Oh well, guess we were due for a losing week. I'll suck it up and be back with a vengeance.

                        The tally:

                        Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
                        Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
                        Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
                        Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
                        Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
                        Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
                        Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
                        Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
                        Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
                        Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
                        Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
                        Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units
                        Week 13: 5-3-0, +0.03 units
                        Week 14: 5-1-0, +4.96 units
                        Week 15: 7-9-1, -2.89 units


                        Total: 81-67-3, +18.23 units
                        Comment
                        • Capybara
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-17-08
                          • 11803

                          #222
                          Week 16!

                          Atlanta -3.5, -108 (2x)

                          I don't think Atlanta has a let-down here. They've got things rolling, and they know now how important it is to go into the postseason with momentum. They can lock everything up with one more W. Just as importantly, I think Detroit's flame is pretty much out. Stafford has been inconsistent this year, and his offensive teammates aside from Megatron have been just terrible. Megatron is a load, but you contain him and there's not a lot of ways the Lions are likely to hurt you. Pettigrew will be out again as well. Atlanta, on the other hand, is dynamic, and gets a banged up Detroit secondary. I think they withstand some initial punches from Detroit here and end up winning this by at least a TD.
                          Comment
                          • Capybara
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-17-08
                            • 11803

                            #223
                            Carolina -8.5, -110 (2x)

                            The Panthers are not the same team they were earlier in the year... Newton's playing great, as are his offensive pieces in a nice collective effort, and their defense, with Kuechly in the middle, is flying under the radar doing a very solid job. The Raiders, on the other hand, are the same team they were earlier in the year -- bad.
                            Comment
                            • EvilBettor
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 01-07-11
                              • 159

                              #224
                              Originally posted by Capybara
                              Week 16!

                              Atlanta -3.5, -108 (2x)

                              I don't think Atlanta has a let-down here. They've got things rolling, and they know now how important it is to go into the postseason with momentum. They can lock everything up with one more W. Just as importantly, I think Detroit's flame is pretty much out. Stafford has been inconsistent this year, and his offensive teammates aside from Megatron have been just terrible. Megatron is a load, but you contain him and there's not a lot of ways the Lions are likely to hurt you. Pettigrew will be out again as well. Atlanta, on the other hand, is dynamic, and gets a banged up Detroit secondary. I think they withstand some initial punches from Detroit here and end up winning this by at least a TD.
                              This is rare, but I disagree with you on this one. I think Atlanta will have a let down game today. They had their game of the year after blowing out NY Giants last weekend. Lions don't have much to play for, other than to spoil Falcons day today. With the amount of people on Atlanta and the way the bookmakers are treating this line going back to ATL -3.5 is telling to me. Money is definitely on Atlanta, but the line isn't showing it. This may be a closer game than most think, therefore the points may come into play, especially the hook. I think Atlanta is highly overrated and Detroit actually matches up pretty good with Atlanta. I'm taking Detroit +3.5 today and a teaser as well. Otherwise, good luck! One of us will win, right?
                              Comment
                              • Capybara
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-17-08
                                • 11803

                                #225
                                Originally posted by EvilBettor
                                This is rare, but I disagree with you on this one. I think Atlanta will have a let down game today. They had their game of the year after blowing out NY Giants last weekend. Lions don't have much to play for, other than to spoil Falcons day today. With the amount of people on Atlanta and the way the bookmakers are treating this line going back to ATL -3.5 is telling to me. Money is definitely on Atlanta, but the line isn't showing it. This may be a closer game than most think, therefore the points may come into play, especially the hook. I think Atlanta is highly overrated and Detroit actually matches up pretty good with Atlanta. I'm taking Detroit +3.5 today and a teaser as well. Otherwise, good luck! One of us will win, right?
                                It's funny to me, the line movement does suggest there are sharps on Detroit, but I'm just not seeing it, I think Detroit is being overrated here by a lot of people... This is an underachieving, undisciplined team. Stafford's play has wavered wildly, his receivers (outside of you-know-who) drop balls, and the defensive backfield is banged up and shitty. Sure, they could step up tonight and show lots of moxie and knock off an Atlanta team not "up" for this game, I mean yeah of course that could happen... I just don't think there's enough evidence to believe it's going to happen. Not to say I didn't wish I had the hook of course. :-P
                                Comment
                                • Capybara
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 08-17-08
                                  • 11803

                                  #226
                                  Added:

                                  6-pt teaser, Atl +2/ Under 57 (1x)

                                  I know this isn't the soundest thinking, but the way I see it, this is a little insurance since I didn't buy the hook. But as I said above, I'll still be pretty surprised if Atlanta lays an egg tonight and/or Detroit plays awesome.
                                  Comment
                                  • Wboyt
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 03-21-11
                                    • 128

                                    #227
                                    Why doesn't anybody understand this is not a good "let-down" spot for ATL? They have to win to lock up HFA. People act like they have nothing to play for. This isn't Bengals-Giants 4 weeks ago
                                    Comment
                                    • Capybara
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 08-17-08
                                      • 11803

                                      #228
                                      Originally posted by Wboyt
                                      Why doesn't anybody understand this is not a good "let-down" spot for ATL? They have to win to lock up HFA. People act like they have nothing to play for. This isn't Bengals-Giants 4 weeks ago
                                      Yeah, exactly. And if one of these two teams is going to be better prepared for this one, with a better mindset, it sure as fukk should be the Falcons. Hope we're right!
                                      Comment
                                      • vinerg3
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 11-29-12
                                        • 20

                                        #229
                                        Atl rolls Detroit. Takes next week off to rest players. Stafford has big numbers from playing from behind all year
                                        Comment
                                        • Capybara
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-17-08
                                          • 11803

                                          #230
                                          Originally posted by Capybara

                                          Atlanta -3.5, -108 (2x)

                                          6-pt teaser, Atl +2/ Under 57 (1x)


                                          +3 units to start the week... running total back over 21 units!
                                          Comment
                                          • Capybara
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-17-08
                                            • 11803

                                            #231
                                            Originally posted by Capybara
                                            Carolina -8.5, -110 (2x)

                                            The Panthers are not the same team they were earlier in the year... Newton's playing great, as are his offensive pieces in a nice collective effort, and their defense, with Kuechly in the middle, is flying under the radar doing a very solid job. The Raiders, on the other hand, are the same team they were earlier in the year -- bad.
                                            Adding:

                                            Chicago/Arizona Under 37, -110 (2x)
                                            Comment
                                            • davopnz
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-12-12
                                              • 1736

                                              #232
                                              Comment
                                              • Capybara
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-17-08
                                                • 11803

                                                #233
                                                And the famous last-second play (which I usually wish I hadn't made, lol)...

                                                Colts/Chiefs Under 41.5, -102
                                                (1x)
                                                Comment
                                                • Capybara
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 08-17-08
                                                  • 11803

                                                  #234
                                                  Originally posted by Capybara
                                                  Carolina -8.5, -110 (2x)

                                                  Colts/Chiefs Under 41.5, -102 (1x)
                                                  Perfect 4-0 in plays so far in Week 16 for +6 units!

                                                  Let's get that Bears/Cards under for the clean sweep!

                                                  No other plays for right now...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ram1502
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-26-08
                                                    • 822

                                                    #235
                                                    Great job dude!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Capybara
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-17-08
                                                      • 11803

                                                      #236
                                                      Originally posted by ram1502
                                                      Great job dude!
                                                      Thanks, man!

                                                      I seriously cannot believe I just lost a win or a push on a garbage-time blocked FG returned all the way for a fukking TD. You have got to be fukking kidding me. Well, that's gambling I guess! I can't even count the number of times flukey special teams plays have fukked my wagers -- I swear, it's like the NFL equivalent of betting a dog in hoops that plays even all game, but then gets rolled in overtime to lose the cover.

                                                      Well, was about to decide on wager(s) for the night game anyway, so maybe I can get that taste out of my mouth... Ugh...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Capybara
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 08-17-08
                                                        • 11803

                                                        #237
                                                        SF/Sea Over 40.5, -108 (2x)

                                                        Pretty simple rationale here... I think the athleticism of these two quarterbacks to some extent neutralizes how good these defenses are, since they can extend plays and then either find open guys or run for first-downs themselves. And of course there are plenty of playmakers on these D's who could create a pick-six as well. I don't think this game will resemble too much the first time these two teams met. And hey, maybe I'll get even get a special teams gift to make up for that bullshit blocked field goal TD that fukked my last play. Let's get it!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Capybara
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 08-17-08
                                                          • 11803

                                                          #238
                                                          Originally posted by Capybara
                                                          SF/Sea Over 40.5, -108 (2x)
                                                          And that caps off a near-perfect week of 5-1, +5.80 units! Running total now up to 24 units!

                                                          The tally:

                                                          Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
                                                          Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
                                                          Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
                                                          Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
                                                          Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
                                                          Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
                                                          Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
                                                          Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
                                                          Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
                                                          Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
                                                          Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
                                                          Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units
                                                          Week 13: 5-3-0, +0.03 units
                                                          Week 14: 5-1-0, +4.96 units
                                                          Week 15: 7-9-1, -2.89 units
                                                          Week 16: 5-1-0, +5.80 units

                                                          Total: 86-68-3, +24.03 units
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Black Hills
                                                            SBR Hustler
                                                            • 01-26-09
                                                            • 81

                                                            #239
                                                            Great job again today, tailed you on the SF/Sea over.....thanks
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Capybara
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-17-08
                                                              • 11803

                                                              #240
                                                              Originally posted by Black Hills
                                                              Great job again today, tailed you on the SF/Sea over.....thanks
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Capybara
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 08-17-08
                                                                • 11803

                                                                #241
                                                                Week 17!

                                                                Houston -6.5, -110 (3x)

                                                                Yes, Houston is nicked up and they've struggled some lately, but they are still the superior team here and they need this one. People that love the Colts just aren't looking at them closely enough. Their D can't stop anyone and even gave up 500 yards to the Chiefs. Luck has some big late-game plays but overall has been very erratic. And let's not forget that this game means zilch for them. Yes, Pagano is back but I'm not sure how that will really change things. I say they make a showing of putting up a fight for a while but ultimately get down in the game and then maybe even start resting guys. I just think Houston comes out extremely focused here.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • shocktopme
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 10-15-10
                                                                  • 940

                                                                  #242
                                                                  .

                                                                  Going to casino later happy holidays bro
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Capybara
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 08-17-08
                                                                    • 11803

                                                                    #243
                                                                    Originally posted by shocktopme
                                                                    Going to casino later happy holidays bro
                                                                    Nice, go get 'em, killer! Play the don't pass!

                                                                    Happy Holidays to you too as well!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Capybara
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 08-17-08
                                                                      • 11803

                                                                      #244
                                                                      Originally posted by Capybara
                                                                      Week 17!

                                                                      Houston -6.5, -110 (3x)

                                                                      Yes, Houston is nicked up and they've struggled some lately, but they are still the superior team here and they need this one. People that love the Colts just aren't looking at them closely enough. Their D can't stop anyone and even gave up 500 yards to the Chiefs. Luck has some big late-game plays but overall has been very erratic. And let's not forget that this game means zilch for them. Yes, Pagano is back but I'm not sure how that will really change things. I say they make a showing of putting up a fight for a while but ultimately get down in the game and then maybe even start resting guys. I just think Houston comes out extremely focused here.
                                                                      Adding:

                                                                      Cincinnati -3, -110 (2x)

                                                                      Gotta jump on this as Baltimore's not playing Ray Rice and it's seeming like they're not going to give this thing a full go at all. Cincy will absolutely be playing it more legitimately because of their lessons from the recent past about not carrying momentum into the playoffs. I'd probably go even higher, but these weird games with questionable motivations are scary.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Capybara
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 08-17-08
                                                                        • 11803

                                                                        #245
                                                                        And this teaser for a unit:

                                                                        6-pt teaser, Pitt -4/ Hou -0.5, -120 (1x)
                                                                        Comment
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