Capy's 2013 NFL Thread

[Capybara]

Back for a third year!

Last year was one of streaks for the thread. Started the season off 30-14-1 through five weeks in the every-game-ATS portion and was also hitting 65% on best-bet plays. Then had a miserable weeks 6-9. Then bounced back in Weeks 10-17 with a winning record and positive units every single week to the tune of 45-23-3. Then had a lousy postseason (Alex Smith to Vernon Davis with 9 seconds left f'n obliterated me, not to mention Tebow's miracle and Wes Welker's non-catch to non-clinch the SB for the Pats). So finished the season off positive in all areas, but barely so, so nothing to write home about.

In 2010 we went 149-118 to the tune of 56% in the every-game-ATS portion, as well as positive in plays to the tune of 20 units.

Still unsure how I want to do it this year, in terms of picking every game as usual or just posting certain plays. Trying to run a thread is time-consuming!

As for tonight, I have no opening plays. If forced to play it (and for the record if I do continue to keep track of every-game-ATS), my play would be Dallas +4, since I think several elements make this game too close to call (the number of key guys dealing with injury, the heightened emotions, the replacement refs, etc.)

However, I am very likely to be back to play some 2H !!

Good luck to everyone this season!!

[Dexter]

GL Capy

[Capybara]

GL Capy

Thanks, Dexy, you too!

[Capybara]

Not sure if I'm gonna keep track of any college action in here or not, but in case I do, I'm on Central Michigan +20 for the game coming up.

Good luck to everyone today!

[Capybara]

All right, let me get this play on here now, with more to come later.

Seattle -2.5 (2x)

Despite moving up 2.5 pts from a pick, this line is still enticing. Seahawks will be legit this season. Russell Wilson is for real, the defense is very solid, talented skill position players, solid on the line. Arizona is all fukked up, going with a default QB since no one "won" the job, and their O-line should be a total patchwork job. So let's give this a shot.

[Capybara]

Adding:

New England -4.5 (1x)

I usually pay close attention to RLM, but in this case, I just don't see it. I'll take the lower line and say thank you very much. The Pats' offense will be fine despite the changed-up O-line. Yeah, the line could be slightly shaky, but if need be they'll keep a tight end in. Aside from that, it should be BETTER than last year when they scored like 54 TD's or something, now that they have Lloyd and Ridley starting.

And the D should be much improved with two new first-rounders starting and more importantly a veteran quality safety in Steve Gregory as opposed to a wideout playing the position like last year.

Also adding this 6-pt teaser, ties win:

6-pt teaser, New England +1 / Seattle +3.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

Adding a unit of

Houston -13 (1x)

No explanation necessary. Legit Super Bowl contender (defense should still be great despite the personnel losses) vs. a squad that should be lucky to win 5 games this season.

[SethM_6]

any thoughts for carolia tb game?

[Capybara]

any thoughts for carolia tb game?

Don't like either side, but I kind of like the over 45.5.

[Capybara]

So yesterday, hit 2 out of my 3 plays, but was too confident in Seattle and screwed myself tying them to a teaser. Seattle hangs on or Wilson connects on one of his four tries at the end and I'm 4-0, +5 units. But no such luck and thus ended up the day 2-2, -1.30 units. Let's try to push it into the positive tonight.

Cincy/Baltimore Over 41.5 (1x)

Seems to be plenty of ways this game could go over. For one, Baltimore's been using a hurry-up offense in the preseason, and if Cincy can't get pressure up front, Flacco could torch them. And on the opposite side, we all know about the aging Baltimore defense. Dalton and Green in Year 2 could be dynamic. Gotta go over here.

Thinking of adding a play or two more...

[Capybara]

Next play:

SD/Oakland Under 48 (2x)

San Diego should have all kinds of trouble with a banged up O-line against the stout D-line of the Raiders, not to mention no Ryan Mathews tonight and new receivers who don't have chemistry yet with Rivers. On the other side, I predict a shaky start for the Raiders' offense against a new and improved San Diego D that people are definitely going to be underestimating right now.

I'm always terrified taking unders in today's NFL, but this is an attractive number to get under for this game, so gonna go for it with two units and see what happens.

Good luck to everyone tonight!

Thinking about a 1H under too see, we'll see...

[Capybara]

Easy 2-0 night, +3 units!

So Week #1 finishes 4-2 in plays, +1.7 units. So damn close to 6-0!!! Fukkin Braylon Edwards, catch the damn ball, man! Oh well, still a nice positive weekend. Wish I'd added that unit on the 1H under for SD/Oak, but didn't want to overcommit.

Back soon with some Week 2 action. Nice to have the NFL back!

[Capybara]

On to week 2...

I'll keep this simple. People are getting just a bit too high on the Bears, who just beat up on last year's worst team in the NFL. Similarly, people are jumping ship too quick on the Packers, who just lost to the cream of the crop in the NFC. Rodgers is still Rodgers. Yeah, their defense needs time to get its shit together and the Bears are a tough test, but I'm still not convinced the Bears O-line is all that, I think the Packers could pressure them. I also think this could be a scorefest that ends 34-27 or something.

So a few small plays, 1 unit each:

Packers -5 (1x)

Bears/Packers Over 50.5 (1x)

6-pt teaser, ties win, Packers +1 and Over 44.5 (1x)

Reduced juice from 5Dimes.

Good luck to all tonight, should be a good game.

[Capybara]

Damn, had the game picked right but had to get greedy going for the total and even throwing in a teaser. Little ticked off, but oh well, down a unit on the night.

Jumping on this:

Pittsburgh -4 (2x)

Jets riding high from dumping on Buffalo... will get a wakeup call from Big Ben and Dick Lebeau.

[EvilBettor]

Pittsburgh -4 (2x)

On it as well! GL

[Capybara]

Not in love with the board this week, but as Omar would say, "The game is out there. It's either play, or be played." So even though that lesson had nothing whatsoever to do with sports gambling, we will twist his words for the greater good! So some more plays I'm on:

Houston -7 (2x)

I really like these Texans. And Blaine Gabbert might find that this defense is not the Vikings defense. Good for him that he has improved, but just like the Bears from Week 1 to Week 2, things can look a lot different when you play a quality opponent.

New England -13.5 (1x)

You know, originally I was going the other way on this, so I'm not super super confident, but despite some great players on Arizona's D, I don't think they stop the Patriots' train from getting their 30 points. And I have very little faith in 'Zona's o-line to hold up, nor in Kolb to play well for a whole game. I'm tempted to also bet the Arizona TT under 17, but gonna leave that on the shelf for now. Also like the Under 48.5, but the Pats' secondary is their clear weak spot, so I'd be nervous that if Kolb does get time, he hits Fitz for some quick scores.

Baltimore +3 (1x)

Yeah, not sold on these Eagles. Some nice parts but not sure it all comes together. Ravens looked scary good at times last week. Not 100% sold on them either, but I don't think they're gonna be a 'dog very often this year, so might as well play this line when you can.

More tomorrow...

[Capybara]

Adding:

Baltimore TT Over 23 (1.5x)

[Capybara]

Adding:

KC/Buffalo Under 45.5 (1x)

Chiefs have got Hali and Flowers back, that could make a huge difference over how they looked against Atlanta. And the Bills D is nowhere near as bad as they looked last week against an oddly precise Jets offense. I like this spot.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Arizona/New England 1H Under 24 (0.5x)

Eh, what the heck. Small play. Like it a little more than the Under 48 because I could see Arizona's D giving the Pats trouble for a spell before the Pats figure it out. Plus, if the Pats get up a couple TDs, they'll soften their D as usual and I could see Arizona piling up garbage yards and a garbage score late to kill the overall under.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Arizona/New England 1H Under 24 (0.5x)

Cash that. Wish it was bigger.

Love this 2H play:

New England 2H -7 (1x)

[Capybara]

Pittsburgh -4 (2x)

Jets riding high from dumping on Buffalo... will get a wakeup call from Big Ben and Dick Lebeau.

Houston -7 (2x)

I really like these Texans. And Blaine Gabbert might find that this defense is not the Vikings defense. Good for him that he has improved, but just like the Bears from Week 1 to Week 2, things can look a lot different when you play a quality opponent.

New England -13.5 (1x)

You know, originally I was going the other way on this, so I'm not super super confident, but despite some great players on Arizona's D, I don't think they stop the Patriots' train from getting their 30 points. And I have very little faith in 'Zona's o-line to hold up, nor in Kolb to play well for a whole game. I'm tempted to also bet the Arizona TT under 17, but gonna leave that on the shelf for now. Also like the Under 48.5, but the Pats' secondary is their clear weak spot, so I'd be nervous that if Kolb does get time, he hits Fitz for some quick scores.

Baltimore +3 (1x)

Yeah, not sold on these Eagles. Some nice parts but not sure it all comes together. Ravens looked scary good at times last week. Not 100% sold on them either, but I don't think they're gonna be a 'dog very often this year, so might as well play this line when you can.

More tomorrow...

Adding:

Baltimore TT Over 23 (1.5x)

Adding:

KC/Buffalo Under 45.5 (1x)

Chiefs have got Hali and Flowers back, that could make a huge difference over how they looked against Atlanta. And the Bills D is nowhere near as bad as they looked last week against an oddly precise Jets offense. I like this spot.

Adding:

Arizona/New England 1H Under 24 (0.5x)

Eh, what the heck. Small play. Like it a little more than the Under 48 because I could see Arizona's D giving the Pats trouble for a spell before the Pats figure it out. Plus, if the Pats get up a couple TDs, they'll soften their D as usual and I could see Arizona piling up garbage yards and a garbage score late to kill the overall under.

Ahead 3.5 units today. Couple nice hits. I'll take that. Out right now and put no time into Detroit vs San Fran, so don't feel able to call it. May be back later. Hope everyone cashed today!!

[Capybara]

Tonight is a no-play for me, so that concludes Week #2.

Thus:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.7 units
Week 2: 5-4-1, +2.3 units

Total: 9-6-1, +4.0 units

Good luck to all tonight!

[shocktopme]

.

Capy's back!!!!!What up bud???Was another great Breaking Bad season!!!!....Im going Falcons tonight but small play on M/L......Catch ya here next week

[Capybara]

Denver 2H -2.5 (1x)

Okay, guess I'm not done for the week yet after all!

[Capybara]

Capy's back!!!!!What up bud???Was another great Breaking Bad season!!!!....Im going Falcons tonight but small play on M/L......Catch ya here next week

What's crackin', Shocker? Long time no hear. Yep, Breaking Bad was amazing as usual, can't believe we have to wait 10 months for the final eight episodes!! We both won tonight, brother -- love when everyone wins!!

[Capybara]

Woo-hoo, love closing out a week with a victory!

Final totals, adjusted after tonight's hit:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.7 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.3 units

Total: 10-6-1, +5.0 units

Back soon to hopefully keep it rollin'! Everyone have a great week!

[Capybara]

And thanks for the points, Dex!

[Capybara]

Okay, Week 3... let's keep the winning weeks going!

Houston -1 (2x)

I see no reason to get off the Houston train. This team is legit on both sides of the ball. Yeah, they haven't exactly played the mettle of the league thus far, but those opponents never even had a shot in those games. Denver is better obviously, but I'm really questioning Manning's abilities at this point, and even if he were physically tip-top, there are still issues to be worked out with that offense. And on D, I don't see Denver having an answer to Houston's offensive balance.

More to come...

[EvilBettor]

Okay, Week 3... let's keep the winning weeks going!

Houston -1 (2x)

I see no reason to get off the Houston train. This team is legit on both sides of the ball. Yeah, they haven't exactly played the mettle of the league thus far, but those opponents never even had a shot in those games. Denver is better obviously, but I'm really questioning Manning's abilities at this point, and even if he were physically tip-top, there are still issues to be worked out with that offense. And on D, I don't see Denver having an answer to Houston's offensive balance.

More to come...

This is a hard pick for me. I like both teams. I sort of lean Denver @ home. But, definitely like the over now that the number has been pushed down almost 3 points to 44.5 Best way for me to play is tease Denver and the over.

GL!

[Capybara]

Gotta say, not feeling confident on too much of this week's board! Other than the Houston play above that I do like, this shit is all feeling like a crapshoot... but gotta be in it to win it... so here are some more leans I'm going to play:

NY Jets/Miami Under 41 (1x)

I want to play the Dolphins plus the points too, but can't get quite do it, we'll see. Anyway, this one has the makings of a 17-13 sort of final. Miami's got some really good players on D and should be able to completely take away the run game, and with Revis back for the Jets and Ryan throwing the kitchen sink at Tannehill plus handling Reggie Bush (maybe), I like this play.

[Capybara]

More small plays:

Detroit -3.5 (1x)

New England +3 (1x)

San Diego -3 (1x)

[Capybara]

Threw in this teaser:

2-team 6-pt, ties win, San Fran -1/ NE +7.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

Two overs I got on, half unit each:

Chiefs/Saints over 51 (0.5x)

Bills/Browns over 44.5 (0.5x)

[Capybara]

About to hit my main play again this week, but of course lost just about all the smaller stuff I knew I should have avoided. Thus down 2.7 units on the day as we speak... It's probably stupid, but I feel like trying to dig out a bit.

Already have one unit indicated above on Pats +3, but going to also give the following three plays a shot:

Pats ML at +133 (1x)

Pats 1H +1 (1x)

Pats/Ravens 1H Under 24.5 (1x)

I do like these plays, but I'm a homer, so take caution before any potential tailing.

[Capybara]

As much as I want to make four or five plays tonight to recover from a shitty weekend, I'm just NOT going to do it, because I could easily see this game going either way. I want to take the home dog with the talented D and the promising young QB playing in their loud stadium, but the fact is that Rodgers is good enough to still make plays and if the Pack can shut down Lynch and confuse Wilson, they could easily take the game.

The only play I'm going to give a shot is:

Packers/Seahawks 1H Under 24 (1x)

...because I can see things being clogged up for both offenses at the start of things. I can see the Hawks D winning the battles up front for a while and Rodgers having NO time to run the offense. And on the other side, I can see the Pack going all in to stop Lynch and then Capers keeping things confusing for Wilson when he's in passing situations. So maybe it's a half-time score of like 10-6 or 13-7 or something.

So gonna start with that and then see about 2H stuff... Good luck tonight.