Capy's 2013 NFL Thread

[Capybara]

Adding two more units to Detroit -2, making a total of 5X on this play.

Hope I'm not crazy, but I just see this number as being OFF. One team is getting its shit together and playing well lately while the other is banged up and sliding back fast. Look at Ponder's numbers recently, they're pretty horrific. The Lions have even started to establish a running game lately with Leshoure. And some missing defensive players have returned for them.

[Capybara]

Next play:

NY Giants/Cincy Under 49 (2x)

Eli's been slumping and not getting the ball downfield, and on the other side, the Bengals just don't have enough weapons if the Giants can take away A.J. Green or get pressure on Dalton. I think if either team has success on offense, it's going to be on longer drives that more or less eat the clock up with the running game and short passes. I think this number is too high.

[Capybara]

St. Louis 1H +7.5 (2x)

I feel like the Rams aren't as bad as they've performed lately and can make this a ballgame for at least a half. Having Amendola back definitely helps too.

[EvilBettor]

DET -2.5 and DEN -3.5 are my two big plays today. Let's get it!

[Capybara]

DET -2.5 and DEN -3.5 are my two big plays today. Let's get it!

Good luck, Evil! I'm on Detroit, but the line movement against Denver makes me too leary.

[Capybara]

NY Jets 1H +3.5 (1x)

NY Jets +5.5 (1x)

Hunch plays. I just feel like the Jets are a desperate team that's had a couple of weeks to iron out some of their problems. I like Rex to insert some new stuff here and surprise a possibly overconfident Seahawks team.

[Capybara]

Houston +1 (3x)

I'm banking on Houston not turning it over like everyone else does to the Bears. They are the stronger overall team and should win this game if they don't make mistakes. However, it does suck that Owen Daniels isn't playing and that makes me a little nervous about this play -- but still going with it because they have pretty good depth at the position.

[EvilBettor]

Detroit F-ed me today, but I made it back to positive with Dallas & Houston. Scary I can feel that confident about a game and they don't come out and play. Should have hammered Denver for more. Oh well...

Steelers should win tomorrow. Not sure how I'm going to play this after today's crazy games. NE nearly lost. SF ended with a TIE! Off day tomorrow?

[SCS]

Tailed you on Rams 1H +7.5 and Texans +1. Thanks for the picks!

[Capybara]

Tailed you on Rams 1H +7.5 and Texans +1. Thanks for the picks!

[Capybara]

Tonight's plays:

KC/Pitt 1H Under 21 (2x)

KC/Pitt Under 40.5 (1x)

Sort of liked these plays regardless of the weather, but now like them a little more. If KC is able to step up in this one, I see it being with their defensive intensity a little more so than their efficiency on offense. As for the side, I've gone back and forth so laying off that for now. Might try for the 2H or live, but have had mixed success there. Just hope these two can come in.

[Capybara]

KC/Pitt 1H Under 21 (2x)

KC/Pitt Under 40.5 (1x)

Cash 'em!

And, the tally:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units

Total: 53-48-2, +8.93 units

[Capybara]

Taking a shot with these to start off Week 11:

Buffalo 1H -1, 105 (1x)

Buffalo -2.5, -110 (1x)

Could be wrong, but just expecting them to step up a little in this spot and pick up a W.

[Capybara]

Buffalo 1H -1, 105 (1x)

Buffalo -2.5, -110 (1x)

+2 units.

[pixster]

+2 units.

Good job, man.

[Capybara]

Good job, man.

Thanks, pixter. I see you were on Buff as well, so you too!

[Capybara]

Sorry I haven't been in yet with plays for today, I'm a little afraid of today's games... so most of my action may be based on what I see happening with line movement... Anyway, let's get some stuff in...

6.5-pt teaser, Arizona +16/Carolina +7.5 (2x) (SIA)

I was too big a pussy and wanted to push that Arizona 9.5 up over the 10. And I see a competitive game in Carolina.

[Capybara]

Jacksonville 1H +10 (1x)

Can't help myself.

[Capybara]

6.5-pt teaser, Arizona +16/Carolina +7.5 (2x) (SIA)

Jacksonville 1H +10 (1x)

2-0, +3 units for a perfect early day!

Here's a late-day play...

Indy/NE 1H Under 27.5 (1x)

[pixster]

2-0, +3 units for a perfect early day!

Here's a late-day play...

Indy/NE 1H Under 27.5 (1x)

Nice going. GL on that Indy/NE game.

[Capybara]

Balt/Pitt 1H Under 20.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

Balt/Pitt 1H Under 20.5 (1x)

Cash it.

Week 11 update is 5-1, +4.90 units.

Debating more plays...

[Capybara]

Decided to lay off the MNF game tonight. Thus, the tally:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units

Total: 58-49-2, +13.83 units

[Capybara]

Hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving... I had leans but nothing I felt like playing.

Week 12:

San Diego 1H +0.5 (2x)

The Chargers are hard to trust, but I see them putting up a fight for a while before potentially choking and giving the game to the eternally fortunate Ravens. The Ravens can look pretty bad on the road at times. I figure Flacco stumbles around half-interested for at least a half here.

[Capybara]

Adding:

Buffalo +3 (2x)

I think Indy's record and public perception are a little bloated, and that Buffalo actually has a little life left in 'em for a run. Their D is playing a little better, but the main thing is their run game, it's nasty with Jackson and Spiller, especially Spiller, his ceiling is high.

[Capybara]

Got in for the full game here too for a unit.

San Diego +1.5 (1x) (Line at SIA)

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] Tampa Bay +3.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

Last one was +110, forgot to note.

[Capybara]

Green Bay 1H +1.5 (1x)

GB/ NY Giants 1H Under 26.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] NY Giants -10.5, -106 (2x)

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] Under 66, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

San Diego 1H +0.5 (2x)

Buffalo +3 (2x)

San Diego +1.5 (1x)

[Live Bet] Tampa Bay +3.5 (1x)

Green Bay 1H +1.5 (1x)

GB/ NY Giants 1H Under 26.5 (1x)

[Live Bet] NY Giants -10.5, -106 (2x)

[Live Bet] Under 66, -110 (1x)

Bailed out with live bets in the night game. So ended up 4-4, +0.40 on the day.

Still can't believe the Chargers gave up a 4th and 29 on a dumpoff to blow a game. Legendary. It never ends with them. Fire that whole staff tomorrow morning.

Will see what I can come up with for MNF to boost the paultry +0.40, but at least we're still green!

[Capybara]

Carolina -3, -115 (2x)

Not overthinking this. I say the team that quits first here is the Eagles. Everyone there knows the ship is going down, and it was already gonna be a challenge anyway starting a rookie QB behind a Swiss cheese line. Carolina's front can actually bring it a little too. The Panthers know they're close to putting some things together. I think they see a lot more reason to keep playing hard and will do so in the hopes of getting a satisfying prime-time road win. The Linc crowd is gonna turn on their Eagles tonight.

[Capybara]

Car/Philly Under 42.5 (1x)

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] Under 55.5 (1x)