Capy's 2013 NFL Thread

Capybara · 01-06-13, 09:07 PM

Oops, can't forget the tally...

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units
Week 13: 5-3-0, +0.03 units
Week 14: 5-1-0, +4.96 units
Week 15: 7-9-1, -2.89 units
Week 16: 5-1-0, +5.80 units
Week 17: 3-7-0, -8.28 units
Post, W1: 6-1-0, +9.72 units

Total: 95-76-3, +25.47 units

Great bounce-back weekend! Won nearly 10 units and yet I still feel like I left dollars out there! Hope the games are better overall though next weekend. Although I guess who cares if I can clear another 10 units.

Anyway, the above leans look mighty tasty to me, so will try not to wait too long before making my final calls and locking stuff in. See you soon...

Capybara · 01-12-13, 09:18 AM

Sorry, Guys, had a crazy fukkin week. Had really wanted to have my plays in early, but was just never afforded the sufficient prep time. Will be poring over everything today though, and at least now will have all the latest injury/weather/news updates.

Happy to hear what plays you guys are feeling this weekend as well! Bbs...

Black Hills · 01-12-13, 11:30 AM

Always look Fwd to your picks and input. Leaning Atl right now, everyone seems to be on Seattle and for good reasons, they have been great but Atlanta is not getting a whole lot of respect in this game and their receivers did well the last two games played in Seattle. Just have a hunch that Atlanta gets the monkey off.
Also leaning GB, Justin Smith injury is big and doubt he will be 100%, he's a big clog in that line. I hate betting against Rodgers especially with points. Not a big fan of Houston the last half of the season and concerns me if they get behind, Shaub is just not that good and if the Pats shut the run down they are in trouble. Hate laying dd so probably will end up teasing NE with Denver, ( yeah probably the most popular tease this weekend ) that in itself makes you second guess that bet. Good Luck

jakeloftin2186 · 01-12-13, 12:17 PM

I'm liking Denver and under their defense is the best in the afc...balty pass rush has been non existent if you give Manning time in the pocket he will eat you alive...people do say that Manning isn't good in cold weather games but most of those games were against the pats

samdapatriotsfan · 01-12-13, 12:22 PM

I agree Jake, I think this is the year Manning gets that cold weather Monkey off of his back.

He has defied everyone's thoughts and expectations so far. Why stop now? We shall see in a few hours!

Capybara · 01-12-13, 04:31 PM

Man, feels like I never had enough time to break down every element of these games, but oh well, here are my thoughts and plays...

My initial gut was that I liked Baltimore plus the points, but in analyzing the match-ups, I don't see it. Guys like Von Miller and Champ Bailey are just too much better than their counterparts. Manning is Manning. Flacco is Flacco. I have to roll with Denver, but only with like a unit.

2-team 6-pt teaser, Denver -3.5, Green Bay +9 (3x)

Denver -9, -107 (1x)

Think I also like Under 45.5 in the Green Bay game, but haven't decided for sure yet.

Will write more about the other game in a bit, but I think I do like Green Bay as well.

Good luck to everyone!

Capybara · 01-12-13, 07:38 PM

Late game:

Green Bay +3, +100 (1x)

Green Bay ML, +145 (1x)

The Packers just feel locked in now to me... With their defensive leaders back, they should be able to take advantage of a thin group of receivers and an inexperienced QB. And I think McCarthy will spread out the Niners' D all game and test the depth of that defense, which is also banged up of course with Justin Smith probably far less than 100%. It's obviously a great Niner D but they can be taken advantage of in the right matchups, and Rodgers and McCarthy know those matchups.

Was thinking about the Under, but still holding off.

Capybara · 01-12-13, 10:14 PM

2H Green Bay o13, -120 (1x)

Capybara · 01-12-13, 11:31 PM

Buried today.

I can handle losses when I felt strongly about the plays, so today sucks because I know I was guilty of lazy capping. I even went away from my original strong lean of Baltimore on the last page. Just think these losses could have been avoided. Well, the good news is my procrastination mostly didn't give anyone a chance to tail!

I promise that whatever I play tomorrow, I'm going to LIKE A LOT. If I can't find anything I LIKE A LOT, I'm just gonna watch the games and accept my horrible weekend.

See ya shortly!

Capybara · 01-13-13, 01:02 PM

No pre-game plays for Seattle/Atlanta... Gonna watch and try to take advantage of good-value live bets or 2H bets. Good luck, should be a fascinating game! I really like both of these teams.

Capybara · 01-13-13, 03:43 PM

[Live Bet] Seattle ML +150 (0.5x)

[Live Bet] Over 55.5 +160 (0.5x)

Fukk it.

Capybara · 01-13-13, 04:25 PM

Owen Daniels Over 4.5 receptions, +110 (1x)

Capybara · 01-13-13, 04:28 PM

6.5 pt teaser, Houston +17, Over 44, ties win (2x)

Rooting for my Pats and don't even care if this hits, but still like it.

Capybara · 01-13-13, 04:36 PM

Hou/NE 1H Under 26, -105 (1x)

Capybara · 01-13-13, 04:40 PM

Fukk, I just accidentally placed the above bet for 2x.

If it seems like I have no idea what I'm doing this weekend, that's because it's true. I'm having a weird time of things -- I blame this weird ear infection or whatever it is... I should not be tailed right now.

Good luck everyone!

Capybara · 01-13-13, 07:22 PM

[Live Bet] NE -18, -110 (1x)

Capybara · 01-20-13, 11:42 AM

Championship Sunday!!!!

All right, let's do the tally, even though last weekend sucked hard...

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units
Week 13: 5-3-0, +0.03 units
Week 14: 5-1-0, +4.96 units
Week 15: 7-9-1, -2.89 units
Week 16: 5-1-0, +5.80 units
Week 17: 3-7-0, -8.28 units
Post, W1: 6-1-0, +9.72 units
Post, W2: 3-7-0, -5.22 units

Total: 98-83-3, +20.25 units

Still above 20 units at least, good shit there!

All right, so have not yet made my final calls on today, but am gonna finish that up now. Wanted to wait to have all the latest info. Pretty tough games to cap today, I must say!

buurrdman · 01-20-13, 11:45 AM

Lets get it today!!!!!!

shocktopme · 01-20-13, 12:41 PM

.

Pick some winners my friend!!!!!!

Capybara · 01-20-13, 02:50 PM

Tough stuff today, but can't wait for these games!

Wanted to make some coin this weekend, but I'm not quite confident enough to make any big-time plays (at least until the games start!)... However, here's what I'll be going with:

San Francisco -3.5, -103 (1.5x)

This is what my gut said initially and I'm not coming off it. Just looking at all the matchups, San Fran wins almost all of them except for at wide receiver. Everyone knows that San Fran in the trenches is simply SUPERIOR to what will be across from them. However, I do think these Falcons are a plucky bunch, with guys like Ryan, Gonzalez, Roddy, Julio, Asante, etc., so I'm just afraid to put a lot on them.

6-pt teaser, ties win, San Fran +2/ New England -3, -105 (2x)

The blustery night should cut down how much damage Flacco can do with long balls, and that's a big part of their offense, not to mention they'd like to open things up for Rice. Honestly, I think people are forgetting how balanced the Pats are this year. And as long as Talib and Dennard stay healthy and allow them to play Arrington at slot corner and McCourty at safety, the Pats D is MUCH better than where they were previously.

6-pt teaser, ties win, New England -3/ Over 43.5, -105 (2x)

Can't see there not being at least 44 points in this game.

EvilBettor · 01-20-13, 02:59 PM

SF all the way... This is going to be good.

Capybara · 01-20-13, 02:59 PM

Adding:

San Fran/Atlanta Over 47.5, -102 (1.5x)

Capybara · 01-20-13, 03:05 PM

Screw it, added another unit on San Fran, so 2.5x total.

San Fran -3.5, -106 (1x)

Capybara · 01-20-13, 03:51 PM

[Live Bet] San Fran +10, -120 (1.5x)

jakeloftin2186 · 01-20-13, 06:09 PM

damn homie killed it so far so good

Capybara · 01-20-13, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

San Francisco -3.5, -103 (1.5x)

San Fran/Atlanta Over 47.5, -102 (1.5x)

San Fran -3.5, -106 (1x)

[Live Bet] San Fran +10, -120 (1.5x)

Cashed!!!

No more bets for now, got the two teasers going already from above in the thread... that was enough stress for one day.

Capybara · 01-20-13, 08:15 PM

New England 2H -3, +100 (1x)

Dexter · 01-21-13, 02:59 AM

beautiful capy....what a season pal.

SuperBowl lean?

Capybara · 01-21-13, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

beautiful capy....what a season pal.

SuperBowl lean?

Thanks, buddy! Nice to see you haven't vanished!

Well, woulda been a lot nicer day if the Pats hadn't choked -- did not see that one coming. Speaking of that, I still say Talib getting hurt early is what cost them that game; it completely altered how they had to play defense, and the adjustments they made, as expected, did not work and resulted in much more pressure on the offense, who, granted, failed!

Super Bowl lean, hmm... I don't wanna say yet, bro, MUCH work to be done in terms of analyzing those matchups. I do think these are the two best teams and am psyched for a competitive game. Gonna be physical as all hell!

Capybara · 02-02-13, 02:15 PM

Okay, time to finish this!

First, let me tally up...

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units
Week 13: 5-3-0, +0.03 units
Week 14: 5-1-0, +4.96 units
Week 15: 7-9-1, -2.89 units
Week 16: 5-1-0, +5.80 units
Week 17: 3-7-0, -8.28 units
Post, W1: 6-1-0, +9.72 units
Post, W2: 3-7-0, -5.22 units
Post, W3: 4-3-0, +0.35 units

Total: 102-86-3, +20.60 units

Man, it sucked starting 4-0, +5.5 last weekend and then having it evaporate. But I 100% did not see the Pats losing the actual game. Still shaking my head about that one. Oh well, still above 20 units. Okay, here we go...

Capybara · 02-02-13, 02:57 PM

Baltimore/San Francisco 1H Under 23.5, +100 (5Dimes) (3x)

I don't know the stats, but it sure seems like the 1H under has been the most money play of this NFL season; it's been my favorite at least. And in a game this huge, there are going to be jitters. I'd be very surprised if both of these offenses are executing at a high level early in the game. Not to mention the two solid, physical, fired-up defenses. (Conversely, after the two teams have settled in and made adjustments, I think the offenses may well both start to click and send the game over the 47.)

San Francisco -3.5, -105 (SIA) (3x)

While I have a ton of respect for the Ravens and especially for John Harbaugh, I think a little bit too much is being made of the "intangibles" -- Ray's last ride, their recent "momentum", etc. Listen, it wouldn't shock me at all if they won this game, BUT, I'm not changing the way I do things now, which in this spot is to put my money on the better team. And SF is the better team, period. They are ridiculously talented in the trenches. Even if Baltimore's D-line can match them at first, as the game wears on, SF's O-line are gonna win their battles in my opinion. I'm a little worried about the D-line not getting to Flacco quickly enough, but I think they'll be able to get enough solid, physical play and scheming in the secondary not to give up more than one or two of the big, long plays that the Ravens love. I'm also largely basing this wager on what I think will continue to be Kaepernick's excellent play. If he somehow regresses and makes mistakes and becomes a deer in headlights, the Ravens will win; however, unlike some who are just assuming he'll come down to earth because he's young, I see NOTHING to make me think that. Two weeks ago he was down 17 points on the road in the playoffs and responded just fine. I honestly think he's too young to even realize how big the situation is. And his playmaking ability is flat-out freakish. Yes, Flacco is the vet and has been playing very well lately, but Kaep has more ways to adjust to what a defense throws at him and still beat it.

I may add a couple of props, or 2H or live wagers during the game...

Good luck to all and enjoy!!

Capybara · 02-03-13, 03:12 PM

Couple of additions:

Balt/SF Over 48, -102 (2x)

6-pt teaser, ties reduce, SF +1.5/ Over 42, +100 (2x)

I've gone back and forth on the total, but I'm playing the over because the very first play I liked in the game when the line came out was the over, and I hate not playing my initial lean and then being mad at myself for coming off it. I still like the 1H under, but I do think that eventually points will go up and the final ends up over.

I'll probably also try to take advantage of that with a live play and 2H play.

Capybara · 02-03-13, 08:14 PM

2H Baltimore Over 10, -120 (6x)

Capybara · 02-03-13, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Baltimore/San Francisco 1H Under 23.5, +100 (5Dimes) (3x)

San Francisco -3.5, -105 (SIA) (3x)

Balt/SF Over 48, -102 (2x)

6-pt teaser, ties reduce, SF +1.5/ Over 42, +100 (2x)

2H Baltimore Over 10, -120 (6x)

Thank god for 2H bets... break-even day, 2-3, -0.15 units.

Final tally coming...

Capybara · 02-04-13, 09:00 AM

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units
Week 10: 5-3-0, +2.35 units
Week 11: 5-1-0, +4.90 units
Week 12: 6-5-0, +2.30 units
Week 13: 5-3-0, +0.03 units
Week 14: 5-1-0, +4.96 units
Week 15: 7-9-1, -2.89 units
Week 16: 5-1-0, +5.80 units
Week 17: 3-7-0, -8.28 units
Post, W1: 6-1-0, +9.72 units
Post, W2: 3-7-0, -5.22 units
Post, W3: 4-3-0, +0.35 units
Post, W4: 2-3-0, -0.15 units

Final Total: 104-89-3, +20.45 units

So that wraps up the 2012 season. The alternate winning and losing down the stretch was a little disappointing, but in the end we still hung on to finish 20 units ahead and post our third straight winning season in the third year of the thread!

Congrats to all who tailed winning plays and apologies to all who tailed losers. Can't wait for next season!

Capy out~