Capy's 2013 NFL Thread

[Capybara]

Was just taking a look at the futures prices... Anyone liking anything?

I could see dropping a little down on Packers +1000; Rodgers is still the best QB in the game and it's a QB league... Maybe the champs at a disrespectful +1500. Also, the Seahawks at +1200 is tasty if you don't foresee a sophomore slump for Wilson.

[pixster]

Was just taking a look at the futures prices... Anyone liking anything?

I could see dropping a little down on Packers +1000; Rodgers is still the best QB in the game and it's a QB league... Maybe the champs at a disrespectful +1500. Also, the Seahawks at +1200 is tasty if you don't foresee a sophomore slump for Wilson.

Wilson and the Seahawks are the real deal. 9er's Kap = sophomore slump IMO.

[pixster]

On Kap, I stand corrected...he's entering his junior year (3rd season in the NFL). A sophomore-like slump nevertheless is what I see coming from him. D coaching staffs, especially in the NFC West, are already in dissect mode. Might be a Colin Rammin' via Jeff Fisher.

[Capybara]

On Kap, I stand corrected...he's entering his junior year (3rd season in the NFL). A sophomore-like slump nevertheless is what I see coming from him. D coaching staffs, especially in the NFC West, are already in dissect mode. Might be a Colin Rammin' via Jeff Fisher.

I disagree actually, Pix. I'm a believer in this kid, his talents are flat-out freakish, and I sort of think people should have seen it coming by the ungodly numbers he put up at Nevada... I'm not sure all the game-planning in the world is gonna stop him and the Niners from winning 12 or 13 games and being right there again.

[Capybara]

Was just taking a look at the futures prices... Anyone liking anything?

I could see dropping a little down on Packers +1000; Rodgers is still the best QB in the game and it's a QB league... Maybe the champs at a disrespectful +1500. Also, the Seahawks at +1200 is tasty if you don't foresee a sophomore slump for Wilson.

Seahawks down to +900 now, damn. Looove the Harvin move! Was hoping the number would be still be a little long, but it seems pretty right on to me.

[pixster]

Depending on the shop, Seattle is give or take +900. Top "public" three - Patriots, Broncos, Niners - will make some noise but I've been liking the Hawks as of the day after SB.

[Capybara]

Was just taking a look at the futures prices... Anyone liking anything?

I could see dropping a little down on Packers +1000; Rodgers is still the best QB in the game and it's a QB league... Maybe the champs at a disrespectful +1500. Also, the Seahawks at +1200 is tasty if you don't foresee a sophomore slump for Wilson.

Hawks all the way down to +700 now. Hope you fellas got some of that a while ago, because without having to deal with Crabtree, they're looking even better!

[Capybara]

Everyone pumped for training camp this week??? The studying begins now, people!

[Capybara]

It's here, it's here!!! NFL 2013!!!!!

Going for our fourth straight winning year in the fourth year of the NFL thread! All documented on SBR! (Inside this particular thread is 2012, +20.45 units, as tallied on the previous page I believe).

May drop something down for tonight, but not quite sure yet... On the other hand, here are some plays I did already lock in:

Seattle -3.5, -105 (1x)

Minnesota/Detroit U46.5, -110 (1x)

Houston -3.5, -110 (1x)

Indy -9.5, -110 (1x)

Good luck to everyone this season!!

[Capybara]

Okay, I'm on this one play tonight (for now):

Baltimore/Denver Over 47.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

Okay, I'm on this one play tonight (for now):

Baltimore/Denver Over 47.5, -110 (1x)

1-0, +1.00 units

Nice and easy, and let's me get to bed! Talk to y'all later.

[Capybara]

Adding a unit of:

Seattle -3, -110 (1x)

Everyone's talking about Seattle being overrated -- I think they're actually being underrated. I don't love Pete Carroll, but it's a very good staff and it's the most complete team in the NFL. People seem to be asking who the weapons are on offense; they're there, they're just not household names yet. And it almost doesn't matter, because Wilson (in my opinion), while not there yet, is developing into a Brady/Brees type -- he's so smart, he'll always make the right read and take what's there.

Another thing about this game is that it's a new system for Cam Newton, and talented though he is, this guy makes too many mistakes, which you can't do against the Seattle defense. This is probably a good game, but in the end Seahawks take control I think. Who knows, it's week #1, we're all throwing darts.

[Capybara]

I hate liking so many faves, and this is also a homer play, but I can't help it:

New England -9.5, -110 (1x)

Brady is fully locked in despite the new players around him, and it's Manuel's first NFL game. This Pats' D is on the rise and it has almost total continuity from last year's team. Let's also not forget that the Bills are missing two or three of their best defenders. Spiller has to scare you, as well as garbage-time back-dooring, but ah well, it's only one unit.

[Capybara]

3-3 minus the juice thus far in Week 1. Mostly just mad at the Dallas and Over plays I wanted to make last night but held off making. Capy's new #1 mantra: Better to make your gut plays and lose than lay off winners. That somehow feels worse than losing!

Anyway, tonight, already have a Houston -3.5 above for 1x, plus the following:

Philly +4, -102 (1x)
Philly 1H +2.5, +107 (1x)

Tonight should be really interesting, but the bottom line is that there's gotta be some rust on RG3, let alone jitters about the knee, Game 1, the expectations, etc., let alone being super-crazy-hyped anyway. On the other side, Vick and McCoy are now in a great offense for their talents, and there's no way that Redskin D should be able to stop what's coming. Just have to like the value of the dog here, is all.

I like the over too but thinking of waiting on that for live betting, which I planned on doing last night as well but ended up being a pussy.

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] Houston 1H +4, -125 (1x)

[Capybara]

Well this game looks nothing like I thought. So I'll probably be wrong on this too, but fukk it, here's what I like and I'm going for broke:

Houston/SD 2H Over 22.5, -115 (2x)

[2daBank]

Well this game looks nothing like I thought. So I'll probably be wrong on this too, but fukk it, here's what I like and I'm going for broke:

Houston/SD 2H Over 22.5, -115 (2x)

you aint the only one brother, i didnt have a worse read on a gm this week than this one.. think you gonna at least hit this. my dumb ass played under 23.5 and that will be toast very shortly, lol..

[Capybara]

So just to tally up Week 1 for the weekly record, I went:

6-5, +1.42 units

Nothing to write home about, but always happy to be positive when it comes to a close! Grinding out dollars works too, I just want winning weekends, don't need the gigantic back and forth swings. (Think I had 12 of 17 reg season winning weekends last season if memory serves.)

Looking at the Week 2 games, two early leans for me would be St. Louis +7 and Jax (yes, Jax) +6. Rams' D is fully legit, especially up front, should keep them in the game. Not sold on Falcons D and Rams do have some weapons. Jax is not as horrible as they showed, and looks like a great spot for Henne to have a decent game. But I do want to look at these more, so no plays yet...

Be back in a day or two with some official plays. Goodnight!

[2daBank]

already on my lambs..lean jags but who knows if i play those scrubs, they def a much better team when gabbert isnt the qb tho and who the hell the raiders to be laying 6 points?

[Jani7Bray]

I will follow yr thread because I only bet 1st 5 inning!

[Capybara]

I'm still on the fence still about tonight's game (plus it's a little hard for me to see clearly with my Pats), but here's a play I just locked in:

Cincinnati -6.5, -110 (2x)

Wanted to get this down before it's -7 across the board. They might have coughed one away in Week 1, but I really like these Bengals, and these two teams are going in opposite directions. The Pouncey loss was huge for the Steelers and this defensive front for the Bengals may be the best in the business. The Steelers will have zero success running the rock, and even though Big Ben can be a magician at times, I think he'll be running for his life here. On the other side, Gio Bernard finally gives the Bengals a mismatch and should help everyone else out on their offense, and Dalton to Green is quickly becoming undefendable.

[Capybara]

Fukk it.

New England -10.5, -110 (1x)

Home opener... Belichick against a rookie QB playing his second game... Everyone doubting Brady/Pats' ability to score points because of the guys missing... Jets one of the worst teams in the league talent-wise despite a gutty (and lucky) win over an overrated Bucs team with a shit QB in Week 1. I'll take the Pats and happily donate this unit if I'm wrong.

[Capybara]

So just to tally up Week 1 for the weekly record, I went:

6-5, +1.42 units

Nothing to write home about, but always happy to be positive when it comes to a close! Grinding out dollars works too, I just want winning weekends, don't need the gigantic back and forth swings. (Think I had 12 of 17 reg season winning weekends last season if memory serves.)

Looking at the Week 2 games, two early leans for me would be St. Louis +7 and Jax (yes, Jax) +6. Rams' D is fully legit, especially up front, should keep them in the game. Not sold on Falcons D and Rams do have some weapons. Jax is not as horrible as they showed, and looks like a great spot for Henne to have a decent game. But I do want to look at these more, so no plays yet...

Be back in a day or two with some official plays. Goodnight!

Good morning!

So I did get this play in, not in time for 7 unfortunately, but got 6.5. Looks like it's 5 now, but I still like it, as I bet this game is decided by 3 or 4.

St. Louis +6.5, -110 (1x)

I laid off Jacksonville. I'm sooo tempted, but it's down to 4 or 4.5 now and not sure I trust that team enough to play them, as Oakland's D against Indy was actually pretty impressive. And Pryor is a wildcard.

On Cincy for two units as indicated above, but gotta wait for that one.

More coming...

[Capybara]

I hate fading Peyton, but all signs point to this so had to get in on it:

NY Giants +4.5, -110 (1.5x)

Everyone's a little too sky-high on Denver off one week... they still can't stop anybody and Eli's due to knock off his brother. Gotta like the Giants as a dog in their home opener, no? Plus some enticing RLM movement on the line from the opening 6.

I like the over 54 here too, but am gun-shy as I'm not sure I have a good feel on O/Us yet this season.

[Capybara]

Went with this last-second two-team teaser:

Miami +7.5, Cleveland +11.5 (1.5x)

[Capybara]

[Live bet] Washington +24.5, -105 (1x)

Couldn't help myself... figuring GB takes their foot off the gas a little and Wash makes some adjustments.

[Capybara]

Up a couple units so far today... but sucks about Rams. Actually more mad I didn't hit them for the 2H to get the unit back, my finger was on the trigger but hesitated and then it kicked off. Falcons are so bad at closing games they lead big.

Was tempted to play Over 52.5 in Denver/NYG, but after the previous games went over, going to instead look for some early D and to hit a good live number for that. For now, will just try and root home the NYG +4.5.

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] Denver/NYG Over 43.5, -110 (1x)

[Capybara]

Going with a 1H play for tonight. Like Seattle to come out of the gate strong and throw the first punches. Not sure how well they'll be able to run it, but I love Russell Wilson and think he's taking a step up this season -- he'll continue his efficient play, even against this stout D, and will use his legs when he needs to.

Seattle 1H -2, -110 (1.5x)

[Capybara]

St. Louis +6.5, -110 (1x) L

NY Giants +4.5, -110 (1.5x) L

Miami +7.5, Cleveland +11.5 (1.5x) W

[Live bet] Washington +24.5, -105 (1x) W

[Live Bet] Denver/NYG Over 43.5, -110 (1x) W

Seattle 1H -2, -110 (1.5x) W

4-2, +2.25 units today... works for me. Don't have a call on the 2H tonight, just going to enjoy the game. Unless I jump on something interesting live.

And still the 2 units indicated above on Cincy -6 tomorrow.

[vigster]

Nice weekend! Good luck

[Capybara]

Cincinnati -6.5, -110 (2x)

Wanted to get this down before it's -7 across the board. They might have coughed one away in Week 1, but I really like these Bengals, and these two teams are going in opposite directions. The Pouncey loss was huge for the Steelers and this defensive front for the Bengals may be the best in the business. The Steelers will have zero success running the rock, and even though Big Ben can be a magician at times, I think he'll be running for his life here. On the other side, Gio Bernard finally gives the Bengals a mismatch and should help everyone else out on their offense, and Dalton to Green is quickly becoming undefendable.

Posted this on Thursday so just bringing it to the top. Slightly nervous giving this many points to Ben and Tomlin, but I just think the cream rises to the top, and in the end, I foresee Cincy with a solid victory in the 7-17 range. Hope I don't get burned on the hook here!

[Capybara]

Nice, love nailing the MNF game, it's like an ice cream sundae after a meal.

So the week finishes 5-3, +3.15 units.

And so we begin the weekly tally!

Week 1: 6-5, +1.42 units
Week 2: 5-3, +3.15 units

Total: 11-8, +4.57 units

We're off and running! Looking forward to capping this weekend's tilts -- some oddball lines for us to chew on. Goodnight!

[Capybara]

Tonight is too tough to call for anything major, but I'm going to back Philly -3 with a unit. Even though KC has a solid D, there are ways I think the Eagles should be able to take advantage. Brandon Flowers got owned by Dez Bryant last week; he isn't healthy. So Jackson could do the same thing tonight, or assuming Flowers gets safety help, Vick should be able to exploit that w/ one of his other weapons. Whereas on the other side, I think KC's weapons are more limited. There's Charles of course, but even he is gimpy and didn't do much last week. I know Philly's D has looked awful, but this offense they're facing tonight should be easier to defend as it's all short-to-medium stuff. I just don't think Philly loses their first two home games.

Philly -3, -120 (1x)

I'm also thinking Under 50 or 1H under 25, but a little frightened to play those!

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] Philly +3.5, -110 (1x)