Capy's 2013 NFL Thread

[Capybara]

San Fran/St. Louis 2H Over 20, -110 (1x) W

Cleveland +4 -105 (SIA) (1x) W

Russell Wilson rushing yards over 25.5 (1.5x) W

Seattle/Houston 1H Under 20.5, -110 (1x) L

Seattle/Houston Under 42, -110 (1x) L

Chicago/Detroit Over 47.5 (1x) W

Seattle 2H -3, EV (1.5x) W

New England ML +140 (1x) W

NE/Atlanta Total QB Sacks Over 4, +130 (0.5x) L

6-3, +5.70 units

Okay, that's more like it. May still make a play tomorrow night, but not sure. That was some game tonight!

[Capybara]

New Orleans -6.5, -115 (1.5x)

I wavered on this because I’m super impressed with Miami so far. The D is very good and the front seven is rock solid. Tannehill has taken a nice step in Year 2 and is actually lifting the play of those around him. However, Wake is either out or limited (he being the pressure-bringer that makes that D go), and this is a move up in weight class from Indy + Atlanta to facing Brees in the Superdome in prime time. And it sure looks like Rob Ryan has transformed that D. I can see the ‘Fins playing well enough for this to be a good ballgame but have to believe the Saints take command at some point, sooner or later.

[2daBank]

6-3, +5.70 units

Okay, that's more like it. May still make a play tomorrow night, but not sure. That was some game tonight!

nice work bro..did better than me..

[Capybara]

New Orleans -6.5, -115 (1.5x)

I wavered on this because I’m super impressed with Miami so far. The D is very good and the front seven is rock solid. Tannehill has taken a nice step in Year 2 and is actually lifting the play of those around him. However, Wake is either out or limited (he being the pressure-bringer that makes that D go), and this is a move up in weight class from Indy + Atlanta to facing Brees in the Superdome in prime time. And it sure looks like Rob Ryan has transformed that D. I can see the ‘Fins playing well enough for this to be a good ballgame but have to believe the Saints take command at some point, sooner or later.

Bam! Another 1.5 units gets me to +7.20 for Week 4... Tally comin' up...

[Capybara]

The tally so far...

Week 1: 6-5, +1.42 units
Week 2: 5-3, +3.15 units
Week 3: 11-13, -3.75 units
Week 4: 7-3, +7.20 units

Total: 29-24, +8.02 units

Finally a muscle-flexing weekend... got my mojo back! Be back soon with Week 5 thoughts if my schedule isn't too crazy this week... Interesting how at the quarter-pole there appears to be less parity then you'd imagine in a league with a salary cap... can't wait to see that Week 6 Broncos/Jags line!

[2daBank]

The tally so far...

Week 1: 6-5, +1.42 units
Week 2: 5-3, +3.15 units
Week 3: 11-13, -3.75 units
Week 4: 7-3, +7.20 units

Total: 29-24, +8.02 units

Finally a muscle-flexing weekend... got my mojo back! Be back soon with Week 5 thoughts if my schedule isn't too crazy this week... Interesting how at the quarter-pole there appears to be less parity then you'd imagine in a league with a salary cap... can't wait to see that Week 6 Broncos/Jags line!

nice week brother..suffered my 1st losing nfl weekend, blah..den -28/31 i would assume, largest spread in history, lol..

[Capybara]

nice week brother..suffered my 1st losing nfl weekend, blah..den -28/31 i would assume, largest spread in history, lol..

Thanks, man. You'll bounce back, for sure. Haha, 28 or more would be too funny. I'm guessing 24.5 to 26.5.

[Capybara]

Cleveland -3.5, -107 (1.5x)

Really think Hoyer makes all the difference in the world here... yeah, he's barely played, but he makes the right read and gets rid of the ball FAST. And he's facing an up-and-down kind of defensive squad w/ some talent but some holes. Meanwhile, EJ Manuel has his moments but is raw as hell and I just think you have to fade him going against such a stout D (terrific front plus Haden taking a WR away) and a team playing a rare primetime game, especially when a lot of his weapons are banged up.

Buffalo/Cleveland 1H Under 20.5, -110 (1x)

Sure, why not, it's all the rage on Thursdays.

[Capybara]

Green Bay -9.5, -110 (1x)

Hope I'm not being an injury update sucker... I had liked the Pack all week but talked myself out of them after looking more closely at some impressive stats from the Lions. But now with Megatron out, I had to bite at this, as it seems kinda ripe for a Packer assault.

I haven't posted anything else for this weekend because I'm really not in love with this card at all... Discretion is the better part of valor, and all that.

[Capybara]

Jacksonville +11.5, -110 (1x)

Going for it. Think this one is a ballgame. Rams o-line has played terrible, their offense has looked just plain bad, and with the Jags getting Blackmon back and the Rams down some key players on D, I'll take 11.5 even with the Jags. Scary though, lol.

[Capybara]

Houston +4, -104 (1x)

Houston ML, +188 (0.5x)

Despite their recent screwups, I still really like the Texans. I like their defensive front a lot tonight against the somewhat underperforming Niners' o-line.

[Capybara]

Goddammit, I was on Oakland tonight for a unit and a half but was out and busy and never got to post in here!!

Why can't that happen with my terrible picks like the Houston one??!! Annoying!

So I'm actually ahead for Week 5 because of it, but this thread is always legit, so no credit and I will have to pick another winner or two for MNF to get in the green for Week 5. Ugh. I'm up for the challenge though. Maybe.

[Capybara]

Atlanta -9, -110 (2x)

Not in love with this play, but like it enough to take my shot at getting into the green for the weekend. Hard to see Atlanta dropping two in a row at home. And with a bye week coming up, even more reason to be super locked in on getting to 2-3 and avoiding 1-4. I really like that Samuel is back playing for them. And I like Julio Jones to have a pretty big game against Cromartie, who's played poorly to this point. Can easily see it being a competitive game, but, an erratic young QB against a desperate Atlanta team at home? Gotta believe Falcons pull away at some point here, even if it's later on.

And tossing a half unit at:

Julio Jones scores a TD, -130 (0.5x)

[Capybara]

The tally:

Week 1: 6-5, +1.42 units
Week 2: 5-3, +3.15 units
Week 3: 11-13, -3.75 units
Week 4: 7-3, +7.20 units
Week 5: 2-6, -4.09 units

Total: 31-30, +3.93 units

Man, NFL is frustrating so far this season... anyone else feel like they just haven't got a handle on it yet? I'm doing better in baseball. I'm doing better in friggin' hockey! Well, this often is the case for the first part of the season, so I'm hopeful I'll get on a nice roll sometime soon. Still in the black anyway, that's better than the opposite!

As for this week, haven't had a chance to cap much yet, BUT, one prop to look out for will be Jimmy Graham UNDER whatever high yardage count they put up and/or UNDER whatever total catches they put up. Belichick's main defensive strategy has been and will continue to be NOT to let the opponent's best offensive weapon beat him. It's not always successful, but it usually is, so those unders will be worth a look.

I welcome any and all thoughts and suggestions for Week 6!

[Capybara]

NY Giants/Chicago Over 46, -110 (1.5x)

Not gonna overthink this, as my gut has always said Over. Yeah, it's a Thursday game, but it features one terrible D (Giants) against a strong offense, and one weaker-than-usual defense (Bears) against a team that's certainly capable of lighting them up if Eli and the O-line can even slightly right the ship. I can see this one staying low and sloppy for a while but eventually busting open with some bang-bang TDs. Plus a pick-six at some point also seems likely.

And for fun:

Brandon Marshall scores a TD, EV (0.5x)

Cutler and he both really want to make that happen tonight, and it shouldn't be too tough against the Giants' paper secondary.

I lean Bears for the side, but not touching that.

[Capybara]

NY Giants/Chicago Over 46, -110 (1.5x) W

Brandon Marshall scores a TD, EV (0.5x) W

2-0, +2.00. Nice, no sweating. Good ballgame too.

[jimmyboi]

nice call, i like your picks! please keep sharing.

[Capybara]

Okay, gonna try and get some winners in here this morning if I can...

Baltimore +2.5, -105 (1x)
Baltimore ML, +117 (1x)

I'll take the champs as a home dog, thank you very much. Packers are missing key pieces from each level of their defense, for one thing. And Ravens pass rush seems like it's heating up. I hate going against Rodgers, but this looks worth a shot. Always like the Ravens at home.

[Capybara]

Houston -7, -115 (1.5x)

Seems like a perfect band-together, bounce-back spot to me, no? At times Houston can look like one of the four best teams in the NFL... I think Schaub going through a rut plus having just played a brutal schedule has everyone down on them, but from what I've seen, the Rams are just not good. Should be a feel-good game for the Texans' D, looking for a solid Texans victory this week.

[Capybara]

Carolina/Minnesota Under 45, -110 (0.5x)

Small play. Carolina's o-line has been a sieve, plus Newton has not played well. Their D is solid, however, and you would think would be what would keep them in the game here. I had leaned Vikings here initially as well, but am not totally sold on Cassel. Hope it doesn't end up an easy Vikings cover with an over!

[Capybara]

Cincy/Buffalo, Under 41.5, -110 (1x)

Yikes, unders are scary, but a practice squad QB against a D that just gave up 6 points to Brady? And Jarius Byrd + Gilmore back for the Bills against Dalton who's been crap? Gotta do it! Lean Cincy too, but ehh, holding off, Cincy not the best road squad and Bills can be tough at home.

[Capybara]

[Live Bet] Houston +2.5, +101 (1x)

[Capybara]

Baltimore 2H -0.5, +100 (1x)

[Capybara]

HOUSTON:

Hopefully I'll hit enough other plays to survive yet another Texans implosion. Gonna dig into the late games right now.

[Capybara]

Jimmy Graham receiving yards under 95.5, -120 (1x)

I don't have a lean on either the side or the total for this one, but as I said earlier, one thing I do like is for Belichick to limit what Jimmy Graham does. He always makes it a point to take away the opponent's #1 weapon, and that has to be Graham (despite how awesome Darren Sproles is).

[Capybara]

Jimmy Graham receiving yards under 95.5, -120 (1x)

I don't have a lean on either the side or the total for this one, but as I said earlier, one thing I do like is for Belichick to limit what Jimmy Graham does. He always makes it a point to take away the opponent's #1 weapon, and that has to be Graham (despite how awesome Darren Sproles is).

LOL, did I smash this prop or what? Six targets, zero catches. When Belichick wants you out of the game, you're out of the game. That may not be the case after this week, however, with Talib being hurt, not to mention half the rest of the team. But that's to worry about later. What a game that was!

Anyone feeling anything strongly for tonight? I lean Dallas and over, but need convincing before I throw my money at either.

[Capybara]

Indianapolis PK, -110 (2x)

Not gonna get cute tonight, this is a play based on everything I've seen, not what I think could suddenly change, which is sometimes the way I end up playing. The Colts have shown that they're balanced, physical, disciplined, and well coached, everything you need to go win a "trap" game on the road. Plenty of teams could lose focus after beating the Seahawks and with Peyton coming next week, but I just don't see it with these guys. While Rivers has looked really sharp at times, they haven't been able to run it very well (which could lead to pressure on Rivers and his inevitable fukk-ups when he tries to do too much), and that defense, which wasn't great to begin with, is banged up right now. I think this is likely to be a very good game, but I've got to roll with the team that's knocked off BOTH of the best teams in the NFC. You also have to love Luck if it's a tight one late in the fourth.

I lean Over as well, but ultimately decided on Indy as my play and don't feel like making more than one.

[ghetto1]

hey capy..i dont understand how a 4-1 colts only give -1 or pk now to a 2-3 charger. its dont look right to me. what ur thought on that?

[Capybara]

hey capy..i dont understand how a 4-1 colts only give -1 or pk now to a 2-3 charger. its dont look right to me. what ur thought on that?

Yeah, was thinking about that as well, G1 -- I'd say one thing is that this "era" of Colts being a legit squad is a little too "young" for them to be getting enough respect to be road faves. Plus people are seeing Rivers throwing for 400 and looking sharp. Hey, SD is home, man, the line isn't that far off, this game could very well be a tight one. I just like Indy to prevail in the end.

[ghetto1]

thanks bro QUOTE=Capybara;19916636]Yeah, was thinking about that as well, G1 -- I'd say one thing is that this "era" of Colts being a legit squad is a little too "young" for them to be getting enough respect to be road faves. Plus people are seeing Rivers throwing for 400 and looking sharp. Hey, SD is home, man, the line isn't that far off, this game could very well be a tight one. I just like Indy to prevail in the end.[/QUOTE]

[Capybara]

I don't have too many strong feelings about this one tonight, but it sure does feel like there's gonna be a boatload of great defense, so I don't mind throwing a unit at this.

Seattle/Arizona Under 41.5, -115 (1x)

[Capybara]

Jacksonville +7.5, -110 (1x)

San Diego coming off the huge win and the short week... Both Blackmon and Shorts in for the Jags... Jags home and certainly do to play a close game... I'll bite.

[Capybara]

Philly -3, -108 (1x)

Good spot for Philly's first home win with the Cowboys' D just a shell right now.

[Capybara]

All right, let's see if we can break this little losing streak with some winners this evening.

Not that I can back this up too strongly on paper, but my gut says the Giants break out of this rut and have a nice game tonight. Eli's getting a fully ripe pass defense to get right against. And I'm sorry, but it CANNOT be that easy for a QB who was already not playing well at all and being woefully inaccurate to just learn a COMPLETELY different system, practice for like two weeks, and then go play great and win a road game. I don't see it. Of course, I fully expect to get creamed since this f'd up season has been beyond me so far.

NY Giants -3.5, -108 (2x)

NY Giants 1H -3, -105 (1x)

NY Giants TT Over 26.5, -115 (1x)

[Capybara]

Carolina -6.5, -108 (1.5x)

I actually prefer the motivation of Carolina to get over .500 and take that big step than I do Tampa Bay's to get a win. I'd usually never fade a winless home team in a prime time game, but when by all accounts things are a total mess in the locker room in addition to on the field, I'll do it. My only concern with Carolina covering the points is that Tampa Bay is WAY underperforming on defense right now... If they decide to stop playing that stupid zone and let their defensive talent shine, this could be a fist-fight of a game, ending like 18-15 or something.

Carolina/TB Under 41, -110 (1x)

This number is somehow still available at SIA so had to grab it.