Capy's 2013 NFL Thread

Capybara · 10-28-12, 11:25 AM

On a five-play winning streak, let's try and keep it going!

Philadelphia -2.5 (2x)

Coming off a bye with a big chance to make a statement against an undefeated club and turn their season around. Vick's back is to the wall too, so I say he plays a mistake-free game. Atlanta is not invulnerable, their run game is shit and teams can also run on them.

Capybara · 10-28-12, 11:53 AM

Adding:

Tennessee -3 (1x)

Why not?

Carolina +7 (1x)

Can't really justify this play... just a hunch that the Bears overlook them and that Carolina/Cam show more fire.

jakeloftin2186 · 10-28-12, 11:58 AM

dont forget andy reid is 13-0 or 12-0 after bye week

Capybara · 10-28-12, 11:58 AM

SD/Cleveland Over 40.5 (1x)

Think this has dropped too low over concerns about rain. Good value now.

Capybara · 10-28-12, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by jakeloftin2186

dont forget andy reid is 13-0 or 12-0 after bye week

Yup, I know, 13-0!

Capybara · 10-28-12, 12:05 PM

And just got this in last second! Phew.

Seattle/Detroit Under 43 (1x)

Capybara · 10-28-12, 01:32 PM

Three plays already dead at halftime, nice... As usual, two steps forward, two steps back.

And here's a sucker bet I'm gonna walk into:

Philly 2H -3 (2x)

Capybara · 10-28-12, 01:43 PM

NE/St. Louis 2H Over 21 (2x)

Capybara · 10-28-12, 03:25 PM

NY Giants -2.5 (2x)

Capybara · 10-28-12, 04:34 PM

Kansas City 2H -2 (1x)

Capybara · 10-29-12, 03:30 PM

And now for tonight's guaranteed winners because it's my birthday and it's a freaking hurricane too!! It's well known that you simply cannot lose plays in that situation!

SF/Arizona 1H Under 19.5, -103 (3x)

SF/Arizona Under 38.5, -110 (1x)

I can't see tonight's game not being ugly. You've got one of the worst O-lines ever for 'Zona against a tough D. If there's any way at all for Arizona to move the ball against SF, it's going to have to be by establishing some sort of run game, which could be painstaking and slow. On the other side, Alex Smith hasn't been the same since he hurt his finger, and it seems to me they are going to once again rely heavily on their run game and short passes to V. Davis, etc. Arizona's D will be ready. I think this first half ends like 7-3 or something. Just think there'll be a lot of amped up D and misfiring O. Less confident in the full-game over, but still like it.

Capybara · 10-29-12, 07:36 PM

Screw it, decided to add a unit of Arizona too.

Arizona +7 (1x)

Situational bet. Three losses in a row, prime time game against a divisonal rival at HOME and getting 7. Had to invest a unit.

Capybara · 10-29-12, 09:11 PM

Phew, cash the 3-unit play!

That was too close for comfort, I could not watch after it went to 17-0.

All right, up for the night now no matter what...

Any of y'all like any 2H?

Capybara · 10-29-12, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

And now for tonight's guaranteed winners because it's my birthday and it's a freaking hurricane too!! It's well known that you simply cannot lose plays in that situation!

SF/Arizona 1H Under 19.5, -103 (3x)

SF/Arizona Under 38.5, -110 (1x)

I can't see tonight's game not being ugly. You've got one of the worst O-lines ever for 'Zona against a tough D. If there's any way at all for Arizona to move the ball against SF, it's going to have to be by establishing some sort of run game, which could be painstaking and slow. On the other side, Alex Smith hasn't been the same since he hurt his finger, and it seems to me they are going to once again rely heavily on their run game and short passes to V. Davis, etc. Arizona's D will be ready. I think this first half ends like 7-3 or something. Just think there'll be a lot of amped up D and misfiring O. Less confident in the full-game over, but still like it.

Told you boys to tail me -- you can't lose on your b-day!!

Dropped a stupid Cards unit right before kickoff, but still +2.95 for the night, I'll take it!!

Capybara · 10-30-12, 09:14 PM

Can't forget to tabulate!

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units

Total: 42-38-2, +6.60 units

On a wacky streak of going .500 with plays, but as long as that last number is green, it's all good!

Capybara · 11-01-12, 06:07 PM

Week 9...

I should have placed something earlier. Basically my leans throughout the week have been #1, the under, and #2, KC plus the points. However, the only one I liked enough to play is the under, but now it's dropped a full TWO points from the 42.5 it had been all the way down to 41 or 40.5. Fukk. So now I'm not so sure...

I think I'm going to start with just this one play, and may not have a chance to place anything else as I have plans for tonight:

KC/SD 1H Under 21 (1x)

Actually, I'll go a half-unit on the full-game one:

KC/SD Under 41 (0.5x)

Capybara · 11-01-12, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

KC/SD 1H Under 21 (1x)

KC/SD Under 41 (0.5x)

+0.48

Another positive night! Only a half-unit (0.475), but hey, winning is winning!

Capybara · 11-03-12, 07:39 PM

Boys, I'm having a tough time finding any plays I like this week... just a horrible board.

How about you, anyone have anything you're feeling good about?

EvilBettor · 11-03-12, 10:29 PM

How about DEN -3.5? CHI -3.5? Or, GB/HOU ML Parlay? That is what I like. You'll find something.

Capybara · 11-04-12, 12:40 PM

Okay, here we go, winners below! (I sure hope...)

Seattle -4 (1x)

Pittsburgh +3.5 (1x)

Dallas +4 (1x)

6-pt teaser, Chicago +1/Carolina +9 (2x)

Capybara · 11-04-12, 12:51 PM

And... taking a shot with:

Cincy +5.5 (1x)

Also:

Pitt/NYG Under 48 (1x)

Looking for some sloppy play under the special circumstances.

Capybara · 11-04-12, 12:55 PM

Denver/Cincy 1H Under 24 (2x)

Capybara · 11-04-12, 01:00 PM

Cincy 1H +3.5 (1x)

Capybara · 11-04-12, 02:28 PM

Denver/Cincy 2H Under 23 (2x)

Capybara · 11-04-12, 02:33 PM

Cincy 2H TT Under 10.5, +100 (1x)

Capybara · 11-05-12, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

Seattle -4 (1x)

Pittsburgh +3.5 (1x)

Dallas +4 (1x)

6-pt teaser, Chicago +1/Carolina +9 (2x)

Cincy +5.5 (1x)

Pitt/NYG Under 48 (1x)

Denver/Cincy 1H Under 24 (2x)

Cincy 1H +3.5 (1x)

Denver/Cincy 2H Under 23 (2x)

Cincy 2H TT Under 10.5, +100 (1x)

Another positive day! Lol, only +0.65 units, but hey, ahead is better than behind! Really thought I was going to get that Dallas cover to make it a nice day, but oh well. I deserve nothing more than a modest day anyway after hellaciously capping the second half of that Cincy game -- ugh!

Will see if I can come up another prime-time winner for MNF and get us another proper 2- or 3-unit week here!

Capybara · 11-05-12, 01:38 AM

Originally posted by EvilBettor

How about DEN -3.5? CHI -3.5? Or, GB/HOU ML Parlay? That is what I like. You'll find something.

Evil, hope you played those, nice job if you did! Although if so, that was some heavy juice you laid on a GB/HOU ML parlay, haha!

EvilBettor · 11-05-12, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

Evil, hope you played those, nice job if you did! Although if so, that was some heavy juice you laid on a GB/HOU ML parlay, haha!

I sure did! I had the best day of the year today.

Capybara · 11-05-12, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by EvilBettor

I sure did! I had the best day of the year today.

Congrats, man! I have a feeling a lot of people had huge days, with so many of the top teams and public faves covering... I'm guessing the books took a hit.

Capybara · 11-05-12, 08:17 PM

NO PLAY before this game tonight.

Tune in later because I am INTENT on providing a LIVE BET WINNER or 2H WINNER. For sure!!!

Enjoy the game!

Capybara · 11-05-12, 11:14 PM

LIVE BET Eagles +14.5, -115 (1x)

Capybara · 11-05-12, 11:59 PM

Why do garbage touchdowns always get scored when it fukks me but they can never get scored when I need them for a cover?? Like ever?!!

Shit, I just realized that that live bet actually knocked me into the red, at -0.02! LOL, FUKK, wanted to keep the streak of green going! Should have just gone with my original gut and played the Saints. What a pussy. Fukking hell! Anyway...

The tally:

Week 1: 4-2-0, +1.70 units
Week 2: 6-4-1, +3.30 units
Week 3: 4-7-1, -1.75 units
Week 4: 1-1-0, -1.10 units* (*with Internet connectivity, was to be 4-2, +2 units, just for the record)
Week 5: 8-5-0, +2.35 units
Week 6: 4-4-0, -3.13 units
Week 7: 8-8-0, +2.93 units
Week 8: 7-7-0, +2.30 units
Week 9: 6-7-0, -0.02 units

Total: 48-45-2, +6.58 units

Capybara · 11-06-12, 12:50 AM

Early play for next week = Detroit, minus whatever, at Minnesota.

Books have taken it down so you can't get anything in right now, but if Harvin is down, it removes one of the few weapons Minnesota can throw out there. And with Ponder already having taken a step back lately anyway... AND with Detroit playing better and Stafford starting to look MUCH better lately, this looks like CASH to me at any kind of reasonable line. Let's see what it'll be...

EvilBettor · 11-06-12, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

Early play for next week = Detroit, minus whatever, at Minnesota.

Books have taken it down so you can't get anything in right now, but if Harvin is down, it removes one of the few weapons Minnesota can throw out there. And with Ponder already having taken a step back lately anyway... AND with Detroit playing better and Stafford starting to look MUCH better lately, this looks like CASH to me at any kind of reasonable line. Let's see what it'll be...

One of my favorite leans for Sunday at first glance.

Leaning Denver again also.

Capybara · 11-07-12, 02:23 PM

Week 10:

Detroit -2 (3x)

This is up right now at Sports Interaction. Detroit's been playing better and Minnesota's been having a terrible time scoring any points. Percy Harvin's ankle is apparently sprained in three places, so even if he plays, this still seems like a pretty good spot for the Lions to get a big division win against a team that's petering out a little.