The 2012 NFL with John Ryan

[jbizzle]

I like Bills +10
Carolina -2.5
Any thoughts on Eagles +3.5
Seems to easy.

[DeSeans_MacKin]

This is just what I like for me personally.. going off lines I have tonight.. obviously could change before gametimes tomorrow..

BUF +10 @ SF - I see this as a lull game for SF. They demolished the Jets last week in a rebound effort after a disappointing loss to Minnesota and now have the Bills at home before a monster NFC Championship rematch against NYG next week. I think SF ultimately wins the game but by no more than 3-7 points. Fitzpatrick is decent, and Scott Chandler who's had a nice start to the season will fair well against a SF defense that has allowed a TD against every TE they've faced minus the Jets (Finley, Pettigrew, & 2 to Rudolph). Another week has allowed Buf's ground game to get healthier. SF 28, Buf 24

GB -7 @ IND - So let's face it. GB hasn't been the juggernaut everyone has expected them to be. Sure they've had a tougher schedule.. I mean look at the defenses they faced in the first 3 weeks- SF, CHI, & SEA - 3 of the top 12 defenses in the NFL. Then last week they finally got a softer matchup at home against NO and they put up a season high 28 points against (statistically) the worst defense in the NFL. They've gotten hosed 2 weeks back to back on awful calls, one of which cost them a victory (@ SEA). I think this week is finally GB's statement win. They have yet to put together a complete game on both sides of the ball and it's time to put up or shut up. GB has to notice that the in-division competition is stiffer than they may have originally thought (CHI & MIN both 3-1 with softer weak 5 matchups) and they cannot afford to lose this one. I think Clay Matthews and Co. make Andrew Luck's day a nightmare and I think Rodgers picks apart a weaker IND defense. GB 38, IND 13

KC +6.5 vs. BAL - This is one that I know alot of people will disagree with, but here's my rationale. A great deal of the betting public was sweet on KC last week at home vs. the Chargers. However, they laid a big ol' stink bomb and got blown out by Philip Rivers and company. 81% of the betting public this week is backing the Ravens, and I think this is the upset special of the week. KC gets a shot at redemption here this week. They're home again in one of the toughest stadiums to play in, in the NFL. Baltimore's defense right now is ranked only 23rd in the NFL and hasn't been playing like the unstoppable forced everyone knows them as. Meanwhile, KC's defense, even after an onslaught last week still ranks 13th in the NFL and has played pretty well. Let's not forget - other than the smoking of the Bengals in Week 1, Baltimore hasn't won a game by more than 7 points this season and that 7 points was against CLE, arguably the worst team in the NFL. Jamaal Charles is looking like the guy we remember from 2 seasons ago and Dwayne Bowe is quietly having one of the best receiving seasons in the NFL. Call me crazy (not maybe) but I like KC to lose this game late on a FG by the rookie, Justin Tucker. BAL 23, KC 20

MIA / CIN Over 45 - At first I thought this was a trap, like Cincy's total last week against Jacksonville. But I'm not overthinking it. We know what Cincinnati's offense is capable of (See Dalton, Green, Green-Ellis, Binns, Hawkins) and we're seeing what Miami's offense CAN be capable of (See Tannehill, Bush, Hartline). MIA played strong on the road last week against Arizona who is tied for the 13th best defense in the NFL. It's a softer matchup for the Phins this week against Cincy's 19th ranked defense. I'm a believer that Tannehill is only going to get better each week and I think Reggie looks more like Wks 1-3 Reggie. They'll put up respectable points again. Combine that with Cincy's offense and you'll get slightly over the 45. CIN 27, MIA 24

[Realist888]

I will like the jags + 6 for a strong play as well as redskins for the upset.

[PlatinumBerg]

I like the Redskins as well. As for the Bears game, it will really depend on which Jay Cutler shows up in Jacksonville. The guy is too unpredictable.

[shocka1212]

if the cutler that hands the ball off to forte about 15-20 times a game shows up, run for the hills.. blowout(cover) city

[p19101]

I like the Redskins as well. As for the Bears game, it will really depend on which Jay Cutler shows up in Jacksonville. The guy is too unpredictable.

It's not so much about Cutler but how much pressure Jags can produce. When Cutler has time he is good and Jags pass rush is laughable. However the Bears OL is atrocious and who knows if they or the Jags rush will come out on top?

[Realist888]

Any plays John?

[John Ryan]

Sunday Plays are as follows

10* Jacksonville +6 1/2
5* JAX Money line +240
10* Colts +7 -110
10* Kansas City + 6 1/2 -110

3* ML round robin parlay on the three upsets in Colts, JAX, and Chiefs.

5* Philadelphia + 3 1/2
5* Washington +3 -105

5* UNDER ATL/WAS 51 -110

BOL to everyone adn looks to sweep this card!!!!!!

[p19101]

That's a lot of dogs

[Realist888]

Lets hit em allllll.....

[PlatinumBerg]

I'm on the Bears -5.5 and Packers -6.5. I like the Redskins bet though. I got the Redskins ML.

[Realist888]

Hey John greats picks today...do you have any plays for Sunday night?

[John Ryan]

Thanks for the kind words.

lets go with a 10* on San Diego +3 1/2.

Thanks again. Comments welcomed.

[stone cold locks]

John, do you have an updated record this year?

[alexknyc]

John, do you have an updated record this year?

After costing his followers almost 100 units this weekend (between NCAA, NFL and MLB), do you think he'll be updating anytime soon?

[stone cold locks]

Ok here is this threads record and units for NFL plays only on full game sides and totals, 1st or 2nd half plays are not factored. For the units I used 5* as 5 units, 10* as 10 units and so on. The last 7 betting days the thread has went 4-14, so if your late following you wuld think he is a loser. But here is the threads record:

19-17 +10.2 Units

[alexknyc]

Ok here is this threads record and units for NFL plays only on full game sides and totals, 1st or 2nd half plays are not factored. For the units I used 5* as 5 units, 10* as 10 units and so on. The last 7 betting days the thread has went 4-14, so if your late following you wuld think he is a loser. But here is the threads record:

19-17 +10.2 Units

I'll go you one better.

Every pick in this thread so far: 20-24-1 +9.95 units

The last two weeks: 6-16-1 -67.25 units

Ouch.

[TLAC]

John,
I've been lurking here for most of last year and this year. I really respect your views and insights.

Can you please explain why so many of your picks are 10* this year? They used to be rare, and I'm wondering if we should treat them with the same status this year because they are so common.

Thanks.

[stone cold locks]

Looking forward to your pick tonight JR, gotta get back on a hot streak!

[stone cold locks]

JR, your pick tonight is Houston -9.5 for a 10*? Is that correct?

[frostie]

John,
I've been lurking here for most of last year and this year. I really respect your views and insights.

Can you please explain why so many of your picks are 10* this year? They used to be rare, and I'm wondering if we should treat them with the same status this year because they are so common.

Thanks.

I couldn't agree more I felt like last year his 10* were almost always dead on but also a lot less common

[heatbig3]

lets fade JR he been off!!! just sayin!!! Maybe JR you mean ya picks are "Locked"? liek that other he/she pualina lmfao

[John Ryan]

Ok.. people and that does include sports handicappers have the right to change their minds.

I like the OVER tonight for a 10* play. I can't trust these Jets to save my life and in my opinion neither can any of us. There is a 10-1 ATS situation that I have in my database that i did not have on the show last week. The simulator that I ran or the total after the video gives a solid 10* play and that is what I am going with. I feel that if there was ever a time that dysfunctional 'child' would perform well it is when they are in church (Monday Night Football cathedral). Serious, this is a 10* play OVER 40 1/2 -110..

I believe the Jets will score points and it would be crazy not to think Houston won't score at least 27 on their own merit. When I have lost total plays like this one, it has been due to poor execution in the red zone.. ending with more field goals than touch downs. When I have won these types it has gone over by the third quarter.

In a rare lack of complete discipline I am staying away from the side.. Jets are an animal that looks to be dead and turns out to be a Mongoose.

[John Ryan]

Rex Ryan is going to have to be aggressive - as in ALL IN defensively. He has no choice but to bring pressure from all over the field. The jets backend secondary is all but a turn and run type of group of defenders and Shaub will think he is in a scrimmage. The other thing with this game is if the Texans get out to a 14 lead, they will go to the power running game and minimize mistakes and have NO turnovers that could get the jets back in the game. This opens up Houston bettor to that wild back-door last second cover by the Jets. I just can't bet on Houston and be certain they are going to winning 27-3 at the half.

I also like a 5* play OVER first half lined at 20 1/2.

[John Ryan]

He does not have consistent ball security, he overthrows a lot of passes and the sight adjustment and hot reads for this offense are not very good. He has good movement skills and his arm strength and accuracy are solid when he has time to throw, but his receivers struggle to separate, which forces him to hold on to the ball too long and risk coverage sacks.

So, with that said, look for Sanchez to execute screen passes and bubbles early to negate the pass rush. slants and then use play action for double move vertical routes. Houston can be vulnerable on the deep perimeter when using a safety for a zone blitz. It is all ifs.. but i do think you will these plays attempted and executed..

As said I like the OVER a lot.

[stone cold locks]

okay, thanks again for the insight

[catt0025]

I like your insight John. However, my one rebuttal would be... who is Sanchez going to throw to?!?! No Santonio, rumor had it S. Hill wasn't going to play and so you're left with...? Chaz Schilens and Jeremy Kerley who have 6 and 10 catches, respectively this year. Shonn Greene might not run better than a 5.0 40 yd dash and Mark Sanchez can't throw it in the shadow of a receiver, much less to them (49% completion percentage)! And the Jets Defense is 31st against the run, Houston is 7th offensively in rushing with arguably the best back in the league. Not to mention the Jets best defensive player is lost for the season with a torn ACL. Houston is as complete a team as we have in the league in all three facets of the game and I look for them to have a chip on their shoulder (talk all weekend is that Houston has never beaten the NYJ in New York) and to beat up on this poor Jets team. I've got a rout Houston 37 NYJ 10.

This is just my humble opinion. Love the work John, let's get back in the winning ways tonight!

[PlatinumBerg]

I like the over tonight as well John. I also have a play on the Texans.

Can the Jets win here? Of course they can, but I just don't see it. EVERYTHING would have to go the Jets' way for them to pull this one off.

[dolphins]

My opinion you have to watch the monday night home dog and all the negative talk about the jets. I agree i like the over who cares about whos not playing they didnt score with those guys last week. Tebow will be in tonight to generate some points for the jets and im not a tebow fan at all. I'm on the over

[DonQ]

He does not have consistent ball security, he overthrows a lot of passes and the sight adjustment and hot reads for this offense are not very good. He has good movement skills and his arm strength and accuracy are solid when he has time to throw, but his receivers struggle to separate, which forces him to hold on to the ball too long and risk coverage sacks.

So, with that said, look for Sanchez to execute screen passes and bubbles early to negate the pass rush. slants and then use play action for double move vertical routes. Houston can be vulnerable on the deep perimeter when using a safety for a zone blitz. It is all ifs.. but i do think you will these plays attempted and executed..

As said I like the OVER a lot.

With u all the way bro

[ricky777]

He does not have consistent ball security, he overthrows a lot of passes and the sight adjustment and hot reads for this offense are not very good. He has good movement skills and his arm strength and accuracy are solid when he has time to throw, but his receivers struggle to separate, which forces him to hold on to the ball too long and risk coverage sacks.

So, with that said, look for Sanchez to execute screen passes and bubbles early to negate the pass rush. slants and then use play action for double move vertical routes. Houston can be vulnerable on the deep perimeter when using a safety for a zone blitz. It is all ifs.. but i do think you will these plays attempted and executed..

As said I like the OVER a lot.

With you John, also on Houston and thanks for your hard work and sharing with us all!

[BING23]

good luck JR

[heatbig3]

JR u jinx the over soo good 40.5 MNF and total came up 40.. lol

[TLAC]

John,
I've been lurking here for most of last year and this year. I really respect your views and insights.

Can you please explain why so many of your picks are 10* this year? They used to be rare, and I'm wondering if we should treat them with the same status this year because they are so common.

Thanks.

John, if you have time; could you please comment on this? Should 10*s be treated this year like 5*s were last year?

Thanks for the time.

[stone cold locks]

Ok John, whats your play tonight?