The 2012 NFL with John Ryan

[rcjiii]

Hey John,

Thanks for maintaining this thread. Those who gripe need to realize you are spending your time and energy on handicapping and giving your advice to us here for free. Anyway, I appreciate it.

I have a question for you. Do you know if any studies have been done on the reliability of line movement one way or the other, both at the start of the week and in the last 10 minutes before kick off? In other words, is it wise to follow early line movement on Monday? Is it sharps or squares who buy early? Also, is the last second steam, in the 10 or 15 minutes before kickoff often just noise or is it reliably predictive? Thanks.

[ChiCubs825]

I think the play tonight is the Titans John. They are very undervalued after going 1-4 with a tough schedule so far. Not to mention that home dogs are murdering spreads so far this year. The steelers, on the other hand, rarely cover spreads on the road, and are quite overvalued, especially with 80% of the public jumping on them. They are also without two of their best defensive players in Polamalu and Woodley. I'm taking Titans +7. What are your thoughts John?

[John Ryan]

everyone: I appreciate all of the comments and you all bring excellent well though out and backed up ideas and selections. This si what has made the threads I run so successful and essentially the goto spot for handicapping info at SBR.

For Thursday and I hear you Titans backers. I really do..

I like Pittsburgh for a 10* play -6 -105

and 10* UNDER 44 -110

I also like a 3* Pittsburgh and the UNDER

[alexknyc]

Hey John,

Thanks for maintaining this thread. Those who gripe need to realize you are spending your time and energy on handicapping and giving your advice to us here for free.

I don't know if this was aimed at me because I've been asking questions, but I'm trying to keep track of how these bets are doing (since we don't get regular updates and I wanted to know). I've been following the bets in the thread, and I just found out there's a website (still no answer on the URL). If it's the SBR John Ryan page, he only puts a number in some bets. Is the 10* bet the default option?

I don't think this is griping but you may have a different definition than I do.

One thing I think you're right about is that we all appreciate John's efforts and I too thank him for the job he does.

[John Ryan]

Tennessee is doing far worse than I had ever expected. They rank a dismal 16th in the NFL averaging just 240 passing yards per game and an unimaginable 30th gaining just 65.4 rushing yards per game. It is not better on defense either as they rank 25th allowing 280 passing yards per game and 28th allowing 144.2 rushing yards per game. There are so many problems and weaknesses on the Titan that will never be fixed in a short week with this game taking place Thursday night.
The Steelers are getting better production on offense and rank 11th averaging 265 passing yards per game and 26th gaining 83 rushing yards per game. It is their defense that has been most impressive and that without Troy. They rank an impressive fourth allowing 184.8 passing yards per game and 11th allowing 95.3 rushing yards per game.

[John Ryan]

If someone wants to volunteer and update the record for the thread please do.. I will double check in the AM. Thanks to whoever wants to be the independent auditor.

[alexknyc]

If someone wants to volunteer and update the record for the thread please do.. I will double check in the AM. Thanks to whoever wants to be the independent auditor.

I have the picks in the thread as 21-25-1 and +3.95 units (assuming each * is one unit).

The 20* bets are 2-1 +18 units
The 10* bets are 13-10-1 +20 units
The 5* bets are 6-9 -18.75 units
The 3* bets are 0-5 -15.30 units

I'd be more than happy to keep a running update but someone should definitely double-check my work.

I also have the numbers for the NCAA and MLB Playoff threads.

[Deol]

I have similar numbers as above, except 5-10 with 5*. Either way John Ryan is slightly + but been on overall losing streak over the last few weeks.

[alexknyc]

I have similar numbers as above, except 5-10 with 5*. Either way John Ryan is slightly + but been on overall losing streak over the last few weeks.

I've got the 5* bets as

Week 1: Cleveland +10 WIN

Week 2: San Francisco -3 (2nd Half) (-105) LOSS

Week 3: Carolina -3 (-105) LOSS, Car/NYG Under 24.5 (1st half) WIN, Carolina (2nd Half) LOSS; Tennessee +4 (-101) WIN; Sea/GB over 46 LOSS

Week 4: Jacksonville -1 LOSS; Seattle -2.5 LOSS; NYG/Philly Under 23 (2nd Half) LOSS

Week 5: Jacksonville ML LOSS; Philadelphia +3.5 WIN; Washington +3 (-105) LOSS; Atlanta/Wash Under 51 WIN; NYJ/Hou over 20.5 (1st Half) WIN.

I have that as 6-9.

[alexknyc]

Last Night's bets:

10* Pitt/Tenn. Under 43.5 (-103) LOSS
10* Pittsburgh -6 (-105) LOSS
3* Pittsburgh and Under LOSS

Updated total: 21-28-1 -19.85 units

20* 2-1 +18 units
10* 13-12-1 -0.80 units
5* 6-9 -18.75 units
3* 0-6 -18.30 units

[stone cold locks]

JR, this is the longest cold streak I've ever seen you on.

[jinxpro13]

JR, this is the longest cold streak I've ever seen you on.

then you clearly didnt follow his ncaa thread this year.. learn to ignore lol

[JustBGun]

breaking bad

Any picks today John?

[JustBGun]

I am lovin Packers +3.5 any thoughts

[John Ryan]

I am lovin Packers +3.5 any thoughts

I like Houston...

[John Ryan]

5* Philadelphia - 3 1/2
5* Dallas + 3 1/2
5* Kansas City + 4 1/2

10* San Francisco - 7 + 100 - this line may slip to 6 1/2 by game time.
10* Washington +1.

Thoughts?

[John Ryan]

Hey John,

Thanks for maintaining this thread. Those who gripe need to realize you are spending your time and energy on handicapping and giving your advice to us here for free. Anyway, I appreciate it.

I have a question for you. Do you know if any studies have been done on the reliability of line movement one way or the other, both at the start of the week and in the last 10 minutes before kick off? In other words, is it wise to follow early line movement on Monday? Is it sharps or squares who buy early? Also, is the last second steam, in the 10 or 15 minutes before kickoff often just noise or is it reliably predictive? Thanks.

Normally, I look for line movements that have equal betting on both sides. This means that large bets are being made in the direction of the line movement and the public is betting the other side. I also look for a 75% threshold of bets being made on one side and 25% or less on the opponent. Taking the least favored side has proven to be solid play.

Seattle comes up on that list today, BUT I do not have technical (systems and angles) and fundamental matchups that favor Seattle.

[JTNewton]

I lost $3k on WVU yesterday. To say I need a bounce back day would be an understatement. I'm typing this from my old MacBook Pro, because my brand new retina display MBP is sitting at my bookies' house. I can't pick a game to save my life right now. Someone point me in the right direction...

[alexknyc]

5* Philadelphia - 3 1/2
5* Dallas + 3 1/2
5* Kansas City + 4 1/2

10* San Francisco - 7 + 100 - this line may slip to 6 1/2 by game time.
10* Washington +1.

Thoughts?

Your SBR page from Friday has the Eagles as a fade.

[b1slickguy]

I"m on PHI and DAL with you, John. GL today!

[JustBGun]

Any analysis on the Bronco Chargers game?

[JustBGun]

I like Houston...

Houston has nothing to loose here and will play the ravens next week. This is a must win for the under-rated Packers I see the pack to cover if not win outright

[p19101]

Houston has nothing to loose here and will play the ravens next week. This is a must win for the under-rated Packers I see the pack to cover if not win outright

I'd take GB outright if betting that side.

[John Ryan]

Any analysis on the Bronco Chargers game?

yep, that play will be released Monday morning.

[John Ryan]

I lost $3k on WVU yesterday. To say I need a bounce back day would be an understatement. I'm typing this from my old MacBook Pro, because my brand new retina display MBP is sitting at my bookies' house. I can't pick a game to save my life right now. Someone point me in the right direction...

first, I was on Texas Tech... but had a breakeven day making 3.0 units. You can't risk betting like that my friend. Bet within your means and not to make your life a little better. ok?

[John Ryan]

Your SBR page from Friday has the Eagles as a fade.

as unbelievable as it is , you are right.. I simply wrote it down wrong from the writeup I did earlier in the week. I apologize.. bad mistake..

[John Ryan]

Your SBR page from Friday has the Eagles as a fade.

it counts as a loss here though.

[John Ryan]

Your SBR page from Friday has the Eagles as a fade.

it counts as a loss here though.

[alexknyc]

Todays' results:

5* Philadelphia - 3 1/2 LOSS
5* Dallas + 3 1/2 WIN
5* Kansas City + 4 1/2 LOSS

10* San Francisco - 7 LOSS
10* Washington +1 WIN

Today's record: 2-3 -7 Units

This week's record: 2-6 -30.80 Units

[John Ryan]

20* UNDER Houston 47 1/2
10* Houston -4 -110

3* reverse parlay Houston AND THE UNDER.

[alexknyc]

20* UNDER Houston 47 1/2
10* Houston -4 -110

3* reverse parlay Houston AND THE UNDER.

What is a reverse parlay? How is it bet?

[John Ryan]

What is a reverse parlay? How is it bet?

great question: here is the answer.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/reverse-bets/

[dodgerblue]

Why would you do that? What sense would a normal person have to do that? I mean, I'm not sure how old you are, but you must know this is gambling, and gamblers lose over the long run (<1-3% make money over a long period of time).

I really would ask that you look to get help. Google it, there are many places to find it. Don't let it ruin your life, and remember that you are most likely in the 97%, not the 3%. Everyone thinks they can be winners, and that's exactly how Vegas was built!

I lost $3k on WVU yesterday. To say I need a bounce back day would be an understatement. I'm typing this from my old MacBook Pro, because my brand new retina display MBP is sitting at my bookies' house. I can't pick a game to save my life right now. Someone point me in the right direction...

[heatbig3]

JR what's your 20* record now??? man ya under and house picks was not even close.. WOW

[heatbig3]

Good thing i had GB MoneyLine lol