This forum was a must-read last year...now it's a joke
I'm done with it
I'm done with it
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Hey John Ryan,
I'm sorry to hear that you, like so many others have been affected so horribly by the storm.
At a time like this, no one would begrudge you some time away from handicapping to ensure the safety of your loved ones.
Keep in touch and let us know how that's going. If you ever need any help... don't hesitate to ask.Comment -
hey everyone,
Yep, all is good. pretty scarey stuff to say the least.. I think I have decided that WIND is more powerful than water, but when combined make the greatest enemy of all. I sincerely appreciate your patience and understanding regarding the situation here. I know too, that some of you have thought I vanished simply because I am losing right now. I am not a quitter as the simple evidence of maintaining an 18-year track record of success. I have also overcome a rare blood cancer where I was given 12 months max to live and that was back in 2000/2001... I had multiple myeloma, which is a 'cousin' to what the Indy Coach has... I too, can remember promising to make my goal to dance at my daughter's wedding... she was 3-years old when I was diagnosed.. and my son was 5..
So, yeh, between the hurricane and the people still suffering great loss everyday and the speech that the Indy coach gave to his team yesterday does make you realize and should make you realize that sports wagering is a privilege and not a right.. As my grandmother and my mother had said all my life,,, always count your blessings, especially when things are the roughest..
Tonight's play is on the Saints for a 10* play with a line of -3. -105
This is a game of two desperate teams and one will come away with a ‘W’ while the other may see any realistic chance of playoff contention all but gone for the season. With that said, I don’t see either team taking many chances and will have schemes that will reduce the turnovers to near zero. I believe the ground games will be an integral part for both teams. Both defenses will be forced to play a base cover-2 package and this will lead to opportunities in the ground game. Saints were torched for 225 rushing yards on 41 carries and yielded 305 passing yards in a 34-14 loss at Denver last week. Considering this alone, the Eagles will look to establish the ground game. It also will allow Vick to stop running for his life nearly every time he drops back to pass. The Eagles makeshift offensive line has no pass protection chemistry, but they have improved in gap run blocking. The Saints need to get the ground game going, but they have become markedly predictable. When RB Sproals has been in the game, Brees passes 85% of the time; when not in the game he passes 54% of the time. Although, the Eagles new DC Todd Bowles promised extreme pressure on Falcons QB Matt Ryan, it never happened and the Saints OL is one of the best at pass protection. Eagles best bet is to play a cover-2 base and not get their corners in turn-and-run situations that allow Brees the opportunity for big plays.Comment -
Eagles defense is giving up chunks of rushing yards as they did last year. The screen and bubble screen to Sproals or even the slot back are going to be featured plays for the Saints when the Eagles safeties are 7 to 10+ yards from the LOS. If i was playing fantasy football, I would start Sproals tonight... I think he will have better than 125 total offensive yards in this game and if it is more, then the score will be even more lopsided in favor of the Saints.
The only way, I see the Eagles winning this game, is if the defense gets a score - or the special teams get one. But, I don't see the Saints making those mistakes. Which QB do you want on your roster Brees or Vick?
and what is this nonsense that Johnson wants Ried or Peyton as his next HC in Dallas? Do any of you beleive this could happen?Comment -
Running back and return specialist Darren Sproles underwent surgery for a broken hand and won't be able to play Monday night when the Saints (2-5) take on the Philadelphia Eagles at the Superdome.Comment -
I think the saints are the obvious choice because of shear offensive. With that being said the dog has won in every Philly game except once I believe if not all of them. Saints d is horrific. And there only hope is pressure which would force Vick to run. I'd avoid this game all together but if I had to choose Philly +3.
I don't think Sean Payton or Andy Reid will end up in Dallas but obviously if the money is worth it I can't imagine either turning it down (but I think both will stay were they are)
As for your hardships I'm glad you overcame them and if nothing else making a living doing what your doing sure seems like success. Do u live in the northeast? We're you affected by the hurricane?Comment -
Before John's post I was leaning a teaser eagles+9 and over 46, any thoughts?Comment -
ok thing for sure John Ryan is great at NFL and his analysis... So take Saints and load up on them -2.5 now love it!!! Thank JOhn ryan "All in NO" fire Reid and bench Vick!!! hahahaComment -
Thanks for the update on Sproles. .. Despite this hjis replacement, whoever that will be can be used int he same manner. Underneath crossing routes and bubble screens.. misdirection runs as the Eagles have a terrible gap discipline.Comment -
"WHO DAT" Let's get this WIN John, got some on the Over also.. Hope we see some points go up tonight.. Good Luck on Saints backers and Over backers....Comment -
teasing Philly might work.. but of course, I would lean towards the Saints. I obviously believe they will win the game, playing the money line offers no advantage whatsoever. If they win they cover. Teasing though woudl make sense, but I would prefer the Saints adn the UNDER.Comment -
Glad to hear your doing better John. I believe this game will go under 53(my local) and Philly wins the game straight up. I could be dead wrong but Ive pretty hot the last 4 weeks in nfl. 8-2 yesterday with dang that dallas loss still ticking me off! bol to everyone and gald to see you back to posting JR!!Comment -
glad to see you back john. However I think the total goes under 53(my local) and Philly wins the game straight up. Ive been hot lately going 8-2 yesterday with that dallas los still pissing me off!! BOL to everyone and cant wait to see your picks next weekend.Comment -
Last Night:
10* New Orleans -3 WIN
Totals:
20* 2-4 -48 units
10* 17-15-1 +6.20 units
5* 9-12 -20.25 units
3* 0-8 -24.30 units
Season: 28-39-1 -86.35 unitsComment -
10* OVER JAX-INDY lined at 43 -110
JAX offense comes to life tonight. I like the matchups they will have against Indy.
No doubt Indy is a feel-good story with head coach Pagano’s cancer battle. Although, that kind move a team to greatness, it has to be translated every week to the field of play. Crunching the numbers, JAX is arguably an equa team when playing at home. Indy ranks 23rd in the NFL averaging 19.9 PPG and 23rd allowing 23.9 PPG. JAX has been offensively challenged scoring a dead-last 14.6 PPG and have a defense ranking 26th allowing 27.4 PPG. Safety Dwight Lowery will be out for tonight’s game. He has been one of the most improved safeties in the league and had done an excellent job against opposing TE. The Colts have become become a team that throws vertical routes more than any other NFL team in recent weeks. JAX can bring pressure or show pressure and then drop back into some very sophisticated zone scheme or even matchup man coverage on underneath routes and still play cover-3 at the third level.Comment -
JR any thought on the side hun? you think colts or jax?Comment -
John do you also have a college basketball thread? I've been following you for over a year you do great work keep it up. ThanksComment -
I'll be setting up the CBB thread Monday.
For the NFL
5* Buffalo +14 -110
10* bengals +5 -110
5* Rams +13 -110
20* Houston +1 -110Comment -
Bengals can win this game. The Giants' defense is ranked 25th (in terms of yards per game allowed) and has been exploited on the ground and in the air often. Look for Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden to attack New York's secondary at all levels and be more creative with their running game. Look for Cincinnati to use more maximum protections (with which the Steelers were successful in Week 9) to give its young signal-caller time to scan the field versus an inconsistent secondary.
5* graded play on the Buffalo Bills as they take on the New England Patriots set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 75-34 record for 69% winners since 2002. Play on road teams avenging a loss against opponent that are off a road loss. Fine tuning this system and simplifying it to just include teams off a road loss playing in November produces a 37-9 ATS record for 80% winners. Here is a second system that has produced a 26-6 ATS mark for 81% winners since 2006. Play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games in games played in weeks 10 through 13. This system has gone 15-3 ATS for 83% ATS winners over the past three seasons. New England put up to 52 points in their first meeting against Buffalo September 30. The Patriots gained 247 rushing yards in that game and Buffalo will make the necessary adjustments to contain the running attack. In the three games where the Patriots gained less than 100 rushing yards they also lost ATS. I believe Buffalo can accomplish this and make Brady defeat them through the air. This game will be single digits throughout. Take Buffalo.Comment -
It is common knowledge that the biggest weakness of this Bears team is its offensive line. More specifically, it is Chicago's pass protection that is a liability. The Texans use a diverse blitz package and are very difficult to get blocked in one-on-one matchups. The key player in that regard is Watt who is running away with the defensive player of the year award. Jay Cutler has really struggled versus the blitz this season and throwing outside the numbers. The Texans' pass defense has been much better when it brings added pressure. Expect Chicago to use a lot of quick drops and to attack the middle of the field, where Houston's inside linebackers are suspect in coverage. I think, if I am right on this play, and I shoudl be since it grades as a 20* play, then Houston will win by double digits.Comment -
You can be sure 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will impress upon his defense that it needs to keep the Rams from running the ball successfully, especially on early downs. St. Louis needs a ground game if it hopes to keep its quarterback healthy and upright, so it tends to lean on workhorse back Jackson and backup Richardson. The Rams lack the dynamic play makers on the perimeter to live on the passing game, but I feel confident that they will cover the number and keep the game close. Just too many points.Comment -
JR any thoughts on this texans/bears total? It's been rapidly dropping down to 37.5 now with the weather being how it is and the top two defenses going head to head. I am leaning over 37.5 just a hunch, and opinions?Comment -
Week 10:
10* Indy/Jax OVER 43 LOSS -11
5* Buffalo +14 WIN +5
10* Cincinnati +5 WIN +10
5* St. Louis +13 WIN +5
20* Houston +1 WIN +20
Week 10: 4-1 +29 units
Season Total: 32-40-1 -57.35 units
20* 3-4 -28 units
10* 18-16-1 +5.20 units
5* 11-12 -10.25 units
3* 0-8 -24.30 unitsComment -
great job today john! $$$Comment -
Thanks to everyone for the kudos. Nice to get.. Let's keep things rolling
I have a 10* Play on OVER the posted total of 40 1/2 -110
Supporting the simualtor grading is the fact that Pittsburgh is a solid 11-2 OVER against teams who commit 2.5 or more turnovers per game in the second half of the season since 1992; 21-9 OVER in home games when facing excellent ball control teams posting 32 or more possession minutes per game since 1992. KC is 20-7 OVER after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread since 1992. Head Coach Crennel is 12-2 OVER when facing good rushing defenses allowing <=90 rushing yards per game in all games he has coached since 1992.
KC will be able to move the chains. This OVER play has limited chance of winning if KC can establish a solid balance of power running and 'West Coast' style of passing. With continuing injuries to SS Polamalu a lot of people thought the Steelers would be vulnerable on the back end, but that hasn't happened. Both Ryan Clark + Will Allen are playing fundamentally sound football, especially Clark, and their range and tackling have been solid. Neither is giving up a lot of big plays. Kansas City will try to run between the tackles, and these guys must step up in run support. The Chiefs will be successful attacking the middle of the field in the passing game, and Clark and Allen must tighten up their Cover 2 schemes when they play it and give the Chiefs minimal throwing windows.
As odd as it sounds, some of these matchups that i have looked at present a game that could very well be a track meet type of tempo.Comment -
John, I respect your analysis. But you know there's a 90% chance of rain and 20mph winds right now. That not change your mind at all? I just don't see how someone in their right mind can take anything other than Steelers and under. please change my mind for me.
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Yep, I do know that. Both teams can run the ball and it then opens up play action pass plays, which are EVEN MORE effective in these conditions. The reason is that the receivers know where they are going with their routes while the defense has to be cautious and REACTS to the WR movements and cuts.
There have been so many times, I have seen totals bet down because of weather in the NFL and the OVER chances improve markedly.Comment -
College Hoops thread is now up at this link:
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Thanks John keep up the good work, people have to understand in this business you have to ride out the bad times not everyweek will be a winner but look at the whole season and come out on top. ThanksComment -
Week 10:
10* Indy/Jax OVER 43 LOSS -11
5* Buffalo +14 WIN +5
10* Cincinnati +5 WIN +10
5* St. Louis +13 WIN +5
20* Houston +1 WIN +20
10* KC/Pitt OVER 40.5 LOSS -11
Week 10: 4-2 +18 units
20* 3-4 -28 units
10* 18-17-1 -5.80 units
5* 11-12 -10.25 units
3* 0-8 -24.30 units
Total: 32-41-1 -68.35 unitsComment -
Good week JR. I had to go against you and take the under. Luckily it hit. I had KC +14, Under 41, and KC and under two teamer. I turned a bad week into a proitable week. Keep up the hardwork. Looking forward to thursday.Comment -
ok, let's see if we can keep the winning streak full steam ahead with this play for Thursday Night football.
OVER 45 poits in the Buffalo-Miami game.
There will be no need to bring pressure on Tannehill given that both of Buffalo’s DE Kelsay and Anderson were inactive last week. Mario Williams does present a problem for Dolphins RT Jonathan Martin, but I believe he has the fundamental techniques to contain him without needing help on every passing down. The Bills young cornerbacks are understandably having trouble adapting and adjusting to the speed of the NFL and the Dolphins will attack the perimeter of the secondary early in this game. The Dolphins Davone Bess may have the best matchup and he has been a favored target with 42 catches and 536 receiving yards averaging nearly 13 yards per catch. His presence will stretch the Bills defense and safety Jairus Byrd will not have the luxury of ‘bluffing’ pre snap. This will make the reads for Tannehill all that much easier and he will be able to target the best matchup leading to the highest completion percentage.
Buffalo defense ranks 32nds in the NFL allowing 31.7 PPG, 31st allowing 410 YPG, 30th allowing 0.478 points-per-pay, 30th allowing 6.2 YPP, 32nds allowing opponents to convert 47% of their third down situations, 32nd allowing an average of four TDPG, and 31st allowing opponents to score a TD 76% of all red zone possessions.Comment
