Division matchups.....
Do all dogs cover?
Do all dogs cover?
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Of the four games slated for the divisional playoff round of the NFl, there was one line that caught my attention. The 49ers are favored by just 3 points and with a week off to rest and prepare, I find this a very skinny line. Green Bay appeared to be back in top form in their win over Minnesota, but the Vikings were playing with a backup QB and several key injuries. GB does rank fourth in the NFl averaging 26.9 PPG. I do feel strongly that the 49ers defense that ranks second in the NFL allowing 17.1 PPG will dominate the LOS and make it very difficult for the Packers to execute multiple play time consuming scoring drives. Moreover, the 49ers ground game is very strong ranking third best averaging 5.1 YPR. GB ranks 28th allowing 4.6 yards per rush. My simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will gain 125+ rushing yards and in past games where they have eclipsed this measure they are 5-2 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS the past three seasons. With the week off, the 49ers defensive front will be at full strength and this is a unit that allowed just 45 rushing yards to the Packers when these two teams met in Week 1. GB has had RB Harris evolve as a pleasant surprise. He runs with determination and protects the ball well when in traffic. Still, the 49ers will force Rogers to throw far more than their game plan will call for. The 49ers have two Pro Bowlers Patrick Willis and NaVarro Bowman and they are the best pair of run defenders in the NFL. The 49ers will establish the run and this sets up play action pass to Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker. Note that I did not mention Crabtree, who has emerged as Kaepernick’s clear cut go to receiver. Because of Crabtree’s emergence, the Packers are forced to use their best cover man, Tramon Williams on him and this will provide ample opportunity for Davis, Walker, and others to stretch the Packers secondary with vertical routes. Take the 49ers.
for the Playoff projections here is my link for that info.
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Is this a 10* bet?Comment -
Saturday:
10* 49ers -3 WINComment -
20* UNDER Patriots-Texans.Comment -
One thing to watch for.... Texans DE JJ Watt and Patriots DT Vince Willfork are dominating interior players and the heart and soul of their respective defenses. Watt will move all over the line to get the matchup he wants and has the best arm over/swim move in the NFL, and we know how good he is at getting his hands up and deflecting passes. Wilfork is a different type of player who almost always stays inside at NT/DT. His game is all about power and bull rush. The difference for him this season is that he has been a three-down player instead of coming out in passing situations. That allows him to get the inside pressure that quarterbacks like Matt Schaub hate, and Wilfork is excellent at blowing up the interior run blocking with his power, which can take away Arian Foster's cutback runs. These are two players to watch, even with all the glamour players in the passing game.
This shapes up to be a time of possession game fo the Patriots... grinding out long time consuming scoring drives is the scheme and this will keep the score much lower than the 48 points listed.Comment -
Divisional Weekend:
10* 49ers -3 WIN
20* NE/Houston UNDER 48 LOSS
Divisional Weekend: 1-1 -12 units
20* 6-8 -55 units
10* 28-29-1 -36.80 units
5* 13-12 -0.25 units
3* 0-9 -27.30 units
Season: 47-58-1 -119.35 unitsComment -
Any picks john?Comment -
10* graded play on the San Francisco 49ers as they take on Atlanta in the NFC Championship game set to start at 3:00 PM ET. The Georgia Dome is going to be raucous to say the least and the fans do have an opportunity to impact the flow of the 49ers offense. Of course, the 49ers have worked on a silent count knowing it is going to be a far different atmosphere than the friendly confines of Candlestick. The simulator shows a high probability that the 49ers will win this game by 6 or more points. 49er QB Kaepernick is coming off a record breaking playoff game, but in this game the star just might be Frank Gore. The biggest matchup advantage for the 49ers is to pound the ball. They rank second in the NFL averaging 5.2 rushing yards per attempt and will be going against a Dirty Bird defense ranking 28th allowing 4.8 yards per carry. This run threat becomes magnified in play action calls with Kaepernick fully capable of pulling the ball down and taking off. The plays that were so successful last week, were created by the 49er receivers streaking down field running either fly or post patterns and getting defenders to turn their backs to the pocket. When Kaepernick saw the backs the Packers defenders, he knew he had big chances to run the ball. With Crabtree and Vernon Davis able to stretch the field with vertical routes, it will be a massive task for the Falcons to contain the 49er running attack by adding a safety to the box. Even when a running play is called, Kaepernick can check to several other plays when he sees eight men in the box. Falcons can blitz well, but have failed miserably against mobile quarterbacks this season. Moreover, the middle of the field was wide open in last week’s dramatic win allowing Seattle to complete very high percentage pass plays in space. Seattle’s Zack Miller was a nightmare for the Falcons defense and you can be assured Vernon Davis and Crabtree will be running routes into that area of the field. So, truly, I just don’t see how Atlanta can stop the very physical 49er ground game. 49ers are a solid 10-1 ATS when facing struggling passing defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last 3 seasons; 15-4 ATS facing generous defensive teams allowing >=5.65 yards per play over the last 3 seasons.
Here are my prop bets for this game: Given the running attack that i see dominating this game, I like playing 49ers -1 ½ to be the team with the most first downs laying -105. Frank Gore at 11/4 to have the most rushing yards of any back in both Championship games. OVER 80 ½ Frank Gore rushing yards. Best of Luck to everyone. Enjoy the games.
Ryan is rolling in the NFL playoffs and all sports for that matter. He is 23-12 ATS with his 25* NFL Titans for 66% ATS winners. <b>He is 4-0 ATS in the playoffs and had Seattle and Baltimore last week and called the Baltimore upset!</b> This is a play that Ryan is stepping up big + his research report will clearly show you why.Comment -
Championship Sunday:
10* 49ers -3.5 WIN +10
1* 49ers most FD -1.5 (-105) LOSS -1.05
1* Gore most yards both games (11-4) WIN +2.75
1* Gore OVER 80.5 rushing yards WIN +1
Championship Sunday: 3-1 +12.70 units
20* 6-8 -55 units
10* 29-29-1 -26.80 units
5* 13-12 -0.25 units
3* 0-9 -27.30 units
1* 2-1 +2.70 units
Season: 50-59-1 -106.65 unitsComment -
John I know every year your Super Bowl picks have been spot on, for example, last year you took the under for a 20* play...do you have your play yet?Comment -
John release the Super Bowl play?Comment -
Here are the prop plays:
First, everyone is betting that a QB will win the Super Bowl. Many of of you, already know, I love going against the public and although many QBs have won previous SB MVP awards, I think this one just might be different. I am going to go with three players. Ed Reed at 35/1, Vernon Davis at 9/1 and Frank Gore at 13/2. No QB in playoff history has played all four games and not thrown an interception. Flacco would be the first to do so. I am not rooting against him, but odds favor he will, especially when playing against a stout 49er defense. Tip passes can end up being interceptions and not an indictment of a poor decision. I like Pierce having more than 7 rushing attempts and that one of those rushes will be over 9 1/.2 yards laying -110. Vernon Davis longest reception over 20 ½ yards laying -110. Pierce scores a TD getting +500. Kaepernick rushing attempts over 6 ½ attempts laying -110. Reed over 4 ½ tackles + assists laying -110. There you have it.
Thanks again, for another successful NFL and CFB campaign in 2012-13.Comment -
I am 7-2 ATS since 2000 with Super Bowl releases. As you know, I nailed the UNDER last year. On my site at johnryansports.com you can get my 30* release and a bonus 25* play on the total.Comment -
Went to the website john I do not see the Super Bowl picks what tab is it under?Comment -
Post your Super Bowl picks john?Comment -
Hey idiot just released his Super Bowl pick free last yearComment -
Hey john paid for ur Super Bowl picks on website but never got em via emailComment
