The 2012 NFL with John Ryan

[John Ryan]

They will pound the ball, obviously, with Marshawn Lynch and this sets up play action where there will be a near 100% probability Russell will have man coverage at three different matchups. This favors Seattle greatly in being able to move the ball and score points.

The biggest question, is whether the defense can stand up tot he Packers offensive assault. Bottom line is this game shapes up to be an OVER play in my opinion.

[cantpickem]

They will pound the ball, obviously, with Marshawn Lynch and this sets up play action where there will be a near 100% probability Russell will have man coverage at three different matchups. This favors Seattle greatly in being able to move the ball and score points.

The biggest question, is whether the defense can stand up tot he Packers offensive assault. Bottom line is this game shapes up to be an OVER play in my opinion.

Thanks John, so are the overs the pick for tonight?

[stone cold locks]

man I was hoping to see you pick the under. but oh well. good luck!!!

[John Ryan]

man I was hoping to see you pick the under. but oh well. good luck!!!

that's what makes markets and betting lines. laugh

[John Ryan]

anyone have anything really strong for tonight?

[catt0025]

6.5 pt teaser GB +3 O39.5

[John Ryan]

6.5 pt teaser GB +3 O39.5

curious to know why you like GB.. can they stop the Seattle ground game and not get caught in man on the perimeter?

[adam3248]

John, your thoughts on Seahawks over 21.5 points please?..

[catt0025]

I just love the way they held Brandon Marshall in check last week and I think they will build off of it. They will do the same this week if need be against S. Rice, but I don't see him as a huge threat to be honest (he runs a fly route or a crossing route, that's it). The Pack will load the box and make Wilson beat them. Even though McCarthy says he wants to run the ball and beat 'em up on defense, he has no problem, and never has, with getting into a shootout. If GB forces SEA to throw more times than they want to, R. Wilson's completion % will decrease and chance for sacks/INT/big plays will lean heavily in GB's favor.

Bottom line is, if you think it is going to be over anyways, I like the Pack's offense a lot better than the 'Hawks. Plus, it's not like SEA stopped a great offense in ARZ and we all know how inconsistent Dallas's offense has been throughout the Tony Romo years. That's why I love GB +3 O39.5 and I am also on GB -3.5 and hoping it falls to -3 with everyone on Seattle.

Thanks for your input John, I just started following you and SBR this football season and I love the insight.

[stone cold locks]

I just love the way they held Brandon Marshall in check last week and I think they will build off of it. They will do the same this week if need be against S. Rice, but I don't see him as a huge threat to be honest (he runs a fly route or a crossing route, that's it). The Pack will load the box and make Wilson beat them. Even though McCarthy says he wants to run the ball and beat 'em up on defense, he has no problem, and never has, with getting into a shootout. If GB forces SEA to throw more times than they want to, R. Wilson's completion % will decrease and chance for sacks/INT/big plays will lean heavily in GB's favor.

Bottom line is, if you think it is going to be over anyways, I like the Pack's offense a lot better than the 'Hawks. Plus, it's not like SEA stopped a great offense in ARZ and we all know how inconsistent Dallas's offense has been throughout the Tony Romo years. That's why I love GB +3 O39.5 and I am also on GB -3.5 and hoping it falls to -3 with everyone on Seattle.

Thanks for your input John, I just started following you and SBR this football season and I love the insight.

72% of public is on green bay. however everyone i know personally is on seattle. Now greg jennings is playing.

[John Ryan]

I should be on-line tonight. I'd be interested to hear some in-game betting strategies. I am just getting up to speed with this risk class of betting method. Sounds wild quite frankly.. reminds me of my wall street days.. I think it owuld be great to do in the NBA where scoring runs abound throughout a game and simply go counter to the team on the scoring run.

[stone cold locks]

John, do you bet your picks? just curious.

[stone cold locks]

ok so Jennings is now starting, the line doesn't move at all! Everyone in the world I think is going to be betting GreenBay. Seattle might win this game straight up. Plus everyone knows that the dogs were gold this week and are probably saying no way another do is good. Seattle probably wins staright up. However in saying this, I am taking Green Bay as I am up $3280 this week from following John Ryan's unbelievable day. Good luck everyone!!!!

[Glowww]

Is there going to be a 2nd half play from you tonight John?

[jbizzle]

I took the Under and GB tonight. What about that offensive pass interference on the last play!? Terrible ref calls these first 3 weeks.

Initially I liked the over as a contrarion play since everything seemed to point towards the under but after seeing JR on the over and seeing how you only missed the 3* play and nailed everything else this weekend I felt the law of averages had to come into play. What's your thoughts JR on factoring in the law of averages when betting? I know every play is individual of others but for example: The Prick this week was 9-1 before making his picks this week. So I figured he can't sustain that type of betting win percentatge therefore I keep that into consideration when choosing to follow or fade some picks.

[John Ryan]

The ramifications of the poor officiating is hurting far more teams than helping as it single handedly is taking away the integrity of the great game of NFL football. All I can hope for is that the league will wake up immediately and work a deal with the union to get professional officiating back in equilibrium with professional football players.

[John Ryan]

ok so Jennings is now starting, the line doesn't move at all! Everyone in the world I think is going to be betting GreenBay. Seattle might win this game straight up. Plus everyone knows that the dogs were gold this week and are probably saying no way another do is good. Seattle probably wins staright up. However in saying this, I am taking Green Bay as I am up $3280 this week from following John Ryan's unbelievable day. Good luck everyone!!!!

sorry we were WAY off on that OVER play. will, as always, try to do better today.

I will have some strong releases in MLB today so be sure to visit my MLB thread.

[stone cold locks]

The ramifications of the poor officiating is hurting far more teams than helping as it single handedly is taking away the integrity of the great game of NFL football. All I can hope for is that the league will wake up immediately and work a deal with the union to get professional officiating back in equilibrium with professional football players.

jOHN, i COULDNT AGREE. Besides the fact that I had green bay and the under. The outcome of these games, including spreads is truly being compromised by these officials. These officials arent even D1 officials!! I truly might not watch an NFL game this weekend. I just might take all dogs again, as i truly believe until the officials get back the NFL will continue to have these problems.

[heatbig3]

Its ok John ryan you been little off lately... I had Seattle and the under last night! what a bad calls but you think it has anything to do with vegas throwing the game??? GB -3 was too easy lol

[Black Hills]

Thanks John for consistently posting your picks and opinions, " little off lately "....Huh !!! Where was that Seattle pick posted beforehand ??

[DeSeans_MacKin]

Brand new to the forum. John.. great weekend last weekend. I've never really shared my picks before but this seems like a fun, friendly thread. I hit big last week on a 5 team parlay - Jac +3, Cin +3, Cin/Was Over 50, Oak +3.5, & Atl +3 ... I did however lose side action on Mia +2.5 & GB -3 (should have stayed away from that one... or.. yanno.. the replacement refs could have just called it correctly haha.. I digress)

Already got some of the early lines off my local guy. Notable ones I like as of now:

NE -4 - Buff's pass def is giving up a little under 250 yards a game so far this season and they're getting a Tom Brady who's lost 2 straight and will be out for blood. I think the reason this line opened so close is b/c Buff has historically given NE fits for some reason. However with Brady coming off 2 losses, I think he has a field day with this game and finally returns to form. I can't see anyway Brady loses 3 in a row, and I think he and Belichick go for straight humiliation of Buffalo who by the way aren't going to have CJ Spiller and will either start Tashard Choice or a Fred Jackson who's coming off a 2 week injury.
STL +2 - Seattle's gotta travel all the way to St. Louis on a short week, coming off that total debacle last night. Yeah St. Louis couldn't muster much against Chi, but as we saw against Was, this team plays much better at home. I think Jeff Fisher will obviously take notice of how GB pounded the ball in the second half against that Sea D with Benson and will follow suit with Steven Jackson & Darryl Richardson. It will help set up play action for Bradford to hit Amendola & Gibson for a couple long scores. I really like STL outright in this game.
Cin/Jac Over 42.5 - Jac & Cin rank 28th & 29th in the league in terms of total defense, and both haven't played very disciplined football. Both have respecticely accumulated over 200 yards of penalties on the defensive side of the ball. Jac is giving up over 250 yards passing per game, with a red-hot Dalton/Green/Hawkins/Binns combo coming to town. I very well could see Cincinnati scoring 28-31 points alone in this game. I think MJD and the Jags make up the difference in scoring against the 31st ranked rushing defense in football. MJD looked good as new last week against the Colts who are also pretty soft against the run (See Trent Richardson, Week 2). I think MJD goes for 2 scores helping boost the points and the final in this game is around CIN 31 JAC 20, making for an easy Over pick.

Anyone have any thoughts? comments? criticisms for the new guy?

[heatbig3]

I don't get why people would release their picks on "Tuesday" when game do not start until Thursday (1 game) and Sunday (rest)? Lines Moves so better to wait unless you just guessing.. just saying lol
Maybe I'm an old school guys but it's better to bet close to game time!
FYI i have been on the positive side on NFL picks since 1950 haha

[suitor]

I don't get why people would release their picks on "Tuesday" when game do not start until Thursday (1 game) and Sunday (rest)? Lines Moves so better to wait unless you just guessing.. just saying lol
Maybe I'm an old school guys but it's better to bet close to game time!
FYI i have been on the positive side on NFL picks since 1950 haha

My understanding (and correct me if i'm wrong, John) is that early on in the week, sometimes you can get a little extra value on certain lines that vegas maybe didn't approximate as well as they could have. Then once the public and/or sharps see this early value and bet it, the line will move to a point where there is a balance between those betting on either side of the line. So, really, if you do your homework you can sometimes get best value early on in the week. I must confess, I am typically not one of those bettors. Hope this helps

[suitor]

My understanding (and correct me if i'm wrong, John) is that early on in the week, sometimes you can get a little extra value on certain lines that vegas maybe didn't approximate as well as they could have. Then once the public and/or sharps see this early value and bet it, the line will move to a point where there is a balance between those betting on either side of the line. So, really, if you do your homework you can sometimes get best value early on in the week. I must confess, I am typically not one of those bettors. Hope this helps

However, you are taking a bit of risk as you do not have a more updated injury report as you would if you laid bets on Sunday morning every week.

[John Ryan]

Brand new to the forum. John.. great weekend last weekend. I've never really shared my picks before but this seems like a fun, friendly thread. I hit big last week on a 5 team parlay - Jac +3, Cin +3, Cin/Was Over 50, Oak +3.5, & Atl +3 ... I did however lose side action on Mia +2.5 & GB -3 (should have stayed away from that one... or.. yanno.. the replacement refs could have just called it correctly haha.. I digress)

Already got some of the early lines off my local guy. Notable ones I like as of now:

NE -4 - Buff's pass def is giving up a little under 250 yards a game so far this season and they're getting a Tom Brady who's lost 2 straight and will be out for blood. I think the reason this line opened so close is b/c Buff has historically given NE fits for some reason. However with Brady coming off 2 losses, I think he has a field day with this game and finally returns to form. I can't see anyway Brady loses 3 in a row, and I think he and Belichick go for straight humiliation of Buffalo who by the way aren't going to have CJ Spiller and will either start Tashard Choice or a Fred Jackson who's coming off a 2 week injury.
STL +2 - Seattle's gotta travel all the way to St. Louis on a short week, coming off that total debacle last night. Yeah St. Louis couldn't muster much against Chi, but as we saw against Was, this team plays much better at home. I think Jeff Fisher will obviously take notice of how GB pounded the ball in the second half against that Sea D with Benson and will follow suit with Steven Jackson & Darryl Richardson. It will help set up play action for Bradford to hit Amendola & Gibson for a couple long scores. I really like STL outright in this game.
Cin/Jac Over 42.5 - Jac & Cin rank 28th & 29th in the league in terms of total defense, and both haven't played very disciplined football. Both have respecticely accumulated over 200 yards of penalties on the defensive side of the ball. Jac is giving up over 250 yards passing per game, with a red-hot Dalton/Green/Hawkins/Binns combo coming to town. I very well could see Cincinnati scoring 28-31 points alone in this game. I think MJD and the Jags make up the difference in scoring against the 31st ranked rushing defense in football. MJD looked good as new last week against the Colts who are also pretty soft against the run (See Trent Richardson, Week 2). I think MJD goes for 2 scores helping boost the points and the final in this game is around CIN 31 JAC 20, making for an easy Over pick.

Anyone have any thoughts? comments? criticisms for the new guy?

Great commentary and thanks for sharing these with us. Seattle, I believe is favored now and I like them as a 5* play minimum. They can run the ball well against the Rams defense. In fact, check out my video with Peter Loshak when it is posted. Great work, though, like how you explain the reasons why. The only cautionary thing I can say is be careful with that OVER Bengals play.. Many times over the years, these types of matchups can go opposite conventional wisdom and nearly 65% of bets being made are on the OVER.

[John Ryan]

My understanding (and correct me if i'm wrong, John) is that early on in the week, sometimes you can get a little extra value on certain lines that vegas maybe didn't approximate as well as they could have. Then once the public and/or sharps see this early value and bet it, the line will move to a point where there is a balance between those betting on either side of the line. So, really, if you do your homework you can sometimes get best value early on in the week. I must confess, I am typically not one of those bettors. Hope this helps

I can tell you that in the NFL, it is rare that a 1.2 poit either way cause me to win ro lose. If you personally like a number and the public may push the line adversely higher than get down on it early. I normally try to work an order at a given level and attempt to front run the betting flows. So, if I feel the a -3 line is going to get pushed by the public to 4 over the course of the week, and I am onbiosly on the other side than I will choose to work the 4 point level. Not that you need the one point just to win, but if you can a better line, then why not.

[John Ryan]

ok so Jennings is now starting, the line doesn't move at all! Everyone in the world I think is going to be betting GreenBay. Seattle might win this game straight up. Plus everyone knows that the dogs were gold this week and are probably saying no way another do is good. Seattle probably wins staright up. However in saying this, I am taking Green Bay as I am up $3280 this week from following John Ryan's unbelievable day. Good luck everyone!!!!

how prophetic you were saying that Seattle just might win SU. wow. Little did we know. At least Stevie Wonder won't be the back judge this week making a call on the final hail mary of any game. No offense to lovers of Stevie Wonder as he is and has always been an incredible inspiration in the music industry and other endeavors. There is nothing inspirational in terms of the zebra stripe whales I see on the field.

[JimmyChoo]

John, what are your thoughts on Thurs game? Teaser -6 under 50 sound good?

[jbizzle]

I have a hunch the Dallas/bears Over 41 will hit. Dallas has hit 3-0 on unders and I have a feeling
their offense will not sputter as much this week at home after a low scoring home effort last week. Obviously, I need to research more but I think this one hits. Like panthers+points too.

[Realist888]

Hey john im new to the thread; however, have been following your picks since last year. What are u thinking for tonights game? I was thinking under 50.5 (-260) to risk $500?

[John Ryan]

John, what are your thoughts on Thurs game? Teaser -6 under 50 sound good?

I think this is a stay away game. Too many uncertainties regarding the Browns ability to get anything accomplished against the Ravens and too many unknowns whether the Ravens will be flat or simply overlooking these guys.

At least the quality and flow of the game will be better. I do have a lean toward the Ravens

[John Ryan]

Hey john im new to the thread; however, have been following your picks since last year. What are u thinking for tonights game? I was thinking under 50.5 (-260) to risk $500?

I don't have anything to recommend. I think it is a difficult game to handicap correctly.

[John Ryan]

I have a hunch the Dallas/bears Over 41 will hit. Dallas has hit 3-0 on unders and I have a feeling
their offense will not sputter as much this week at home after a low scoring home effort last week. Obviously, I need to research more but I think this one hits. Like panthers+points too.

good stuff.. I like the OVER as well. I will post on this later.

[John Ryan]

John, what are your thoughts on Thurs game? Teaser -6 under 50 sound good?

tough call.. very tough call. that is the way I would go.. but i am sticking to the sidelines tonight. That doesn't mean though that this is not a great opportunity for you. That is what makes markets. I hope you hit on this and if I was bettign it, I woudl agree.

[heatbig3]

JR so you simply confused on this game right??? then here it is guys!!!! Unload on this; Cle +12 (20*) + the Over 43.5 (10*).. good luck!!! FYI my records;
5* 5 out of 8
10* 3 out of 5
20* 2 out of 2
50* 1 out of 1
so far this season! with the replacement refs. of course lol