LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

There's not as many value plays this week....might have a smaller card than usual but with a few bigger plays. Good luck this week.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

[realitybias]

I'm already on t hem. I completely agree with you on the steelers. Plus, my proprietary simulators both estimate a steelers spread victory.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MONEYLINE ACTION PARLAY (Not for Records win or lose)

Detoit (-230)
Oakland (-200)
Pittsburgh (-210)
Green Bay (-550)
Baltimore (-500)

Pays about 3.3x for every 1x wagered

Just a little fun. I love all of these teams to win, so I figured I would take a shot. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I'm looking at about four more plays, mostly totals and one side. I think we may get better numbers on these other plays tomorrow morning, so I'm going to hit the hay for about four hours and then start watching the lines. See ya in a few...good luck on Sunday!

[upscope]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

WOW 3x?? I don't think I've ever see you release a 3x play?? Not since I've been tracking you @ least. I was actually leaning Zona here. Might have to reevaluate now. I know you don't just release 3x plays for sh#t's & giggles so you must really be confident here??

BOL.....I think I might just sit this one out but I'll certainly be pulling for you on this one. You deserve it after the shenanigans that's been going on the last couple weeks.

[kingsr]

F*CK! I already play Zona +4 for 1 unit! I'm still rootin for ya LTA since you've made me some decent $$$ I'm happy to give a little back for your 3 unit play.

[BiffTFinancial]

love the Stillers today, LTA. BOL, pal..

[Trivial]

I am also on Arizona, but wish LTA the best of luck. Here is why I picked Zona:

- Last week's performance vs. Jags was barely good enough to win.
- QB has thrown 6 INTs already this year.
- Already has 18 sacks against them.
- RB is only averaging 4 yards a carry.

Although the "gut feel" is Steelers, I agree 500% - with those stats, I can't back them against a hungry Zona team at home.

[Love The Action]

WOW 3x?? I don't think I've ever see you release a 3x play?? Not since I've been tracking you @ least. I was actually leaning Zona here. Might have to reevaluate now. I know you don't just release 3x plays for sh#t's & giggles so you must really be confident here??

BOL.....I think I might just sit this one out but I'll certainly be pulling for you on this one. You deserve it after the shenanigans that's been going on the last couple weeks.

For sure Scope! I don't release multiple unit plays unless I love them and I love the Steelers today. I just think Mike Tomlin will not allow a letdown in this spot. The almost got surprised last week against the Jaguars and they had a great week of practice from what I read (and what you can really take out of that which isn't much).

However, the Arizona secondary is decimated right now. That's actually why I also love the over is this spot as well. Unfortunately, I didn't get on it early at 42 or 43 and now its at 44. However, I have 46 and will probably make a play on the total in that game as well. There's just too much value, talent and motivation in this one too ignore the Steelers and over....GL

[Love The Action]

F*CK! I already play Zona +4 for 1 unit! I'm still rootin for ya LTA since you've made me some decent $$$ I'm happy to give a little back for your 3 unit play.

Gotta follow your own gut, but I love the Steelers here. Good luck King

[Love The Action]

love the Stillers today, LTA. BOL, pal..

Good luck Biffer!

[Trivial]

For sure Scope! I don't release multiple unit plays unless I love them and I love the Steelers today. I just think Mike Tomlin will not allow a letdown in this spot. The almost got surprised last week against the Jaguars and they had a great week of practice from what I read (and what you can really take out of that which isn't much).

However, the Arizona secondary is decimated right now. That's actually why I also love the over is this spot as well. Unfortunately, I didn't get on it early at 42 or 43 and now its at 44. However, I have 46 and will probably make a play on the total in that game as well. There's just too much value, talent and motivation in this one too ignore the Steelers and over....GL

GL my friend. I totally get your reasoning as well. In my opinion, this can go either way (I guess, can't they all go either way).

[Love The Action]

I am also on Arizona, but wish LTA the best of luck. Here is why I picked Zona:
- Last week's performance vs. Jags was barely good enough to win.
- QB has thrown 6 INTs already this year.
- Already has 18 sacks against them.
- RB is only averaging 4 yards a carry.

Although the "gut feel" is Steelers, I agree 500% - with those stats, I can't back them against a hungry Zona team at home.

4 yards a carry isn't that bad, but your're stats above is also reason why I love the Steelers. Jax is a pretty solid defense, AZ is not. I don't expect such bad play out of the Steel Curtain two weeks in a row.

Good luck Triv

[Love The Action]

Janikowski out from the Raiders today....Dave Rayner signed to take over kicking duties

[Redscot]

Janikowski out from the Raiders today....Dave Rayner signed to take over kicking duties

That's some pertinent info right there, Janikowski can be a game changer with his range and deep KO's.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Got me a small little action parlay for fun ML pays out over 40-1
Hawks
Texans
Falcons
Chiefs

[Love The Action]

LTA, still like the Raiders at 3X, at -4, and sans Janikowski? Or you recommend a smaller play?


Got me a small little action parlay for fun ML pays out over 40-1
Hawks
Texans
Falcons
Chiefs

Not playing the Raiders as of right now...I'm on the Steelers 3x

[Dexter]

i had my line at pitt -7 as well, but the line was way too fishy for me and the steelers have the pats next week. Good Luck Bro....

[Redscot]

Not playing the Raiders as of right now...I'm on the Steelers 3x

Yup, realized the error too late. Got my dad down visiting me chewing my ear off
Question is would you take the Steelers -4 same 3X

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay
Steelers (-200)/Lions (-230)

Risk 1x to win 1.14x

These are my two strongest plays on the side today, so I am going to par them together on the ML. I'm still debating whether to play Lions (-4) as well, but I am much more confident in them winning SU. As you know, I love the Steelers and have them set at -7 on the road. I have the Lions set at -5.5 at home, which isn't quite enough for me to take them -4. I do, however, believe they win the game. The play on the Lions is mainly predicated on their defense. I just don't think Matty Ice is going to be able to get much going in that rocking and rolling Ford Field dome especially have the coach craziness and loss last week. I have both the Steelers and Lions winning this game at a much higher percentage of the time than the price indicates, so I'm rolling with the ML parlay in this spot on both the Steelers and Lions for 1x. Good luck.

[Pin Fish]

Not playing the London total but here is some interesting stuff

2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 – San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)

On the road Bears (13 PPG) and Bucs (13.5 PPG)

[Love The Action]

So do you guys think all this Denver money coming in is legit or is it just the Tebow love. I mean, if anything, I would fade Tebow or maybe go with the over based on all the turnovers that might happen today with Moore and Tebow behind center. I couldn't put one cent on Tebow as a road fave in his fourth start though...ridiculous. I can't believe "sharp" money is the cause of this line move...

[Love The Action]

Not playing the London total but here is some interesting stuff

2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 – San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)

On the road Bears (13 PPG) and Bucs (13.5 PPG)

Sort of throws my "more points on the foreign trip" theory out the window. Actually, I think the stats I were looking at included games in Mexico and other foreign trips outside of the London trip. However, the foreign nature of the game is but only a tiny bit of reasoing behind that play. I really like how both offenses performed last week. I think the Bears turned the corner a bit in understanding their limitations and knowing what they need to do in order to be successful. In addition, the Bears safety position is in flux right now which opens up that vertical passing game to Freeman. I just see both of these teams scoring 3 td's. With a few fg's mixed in, this one should hit 46 or 47. Good luck in whatever you choose and thanks for the stats!

[Dexter]

So do you guys think all this Denver money coming in is legit or is it just the Tebow love. I mean, if anything, I would fade Tebow or maybe go with the over based on all the turnovers that might happen today with Moore and Tebow behind center. I couldn't put one cent on Tebow as a road fave in his fourth start though...ridiculous. I can't believe "sharp" money is the cause of this line move...

tebow love for sure. i want to see him play today before i make a play on denver going forward.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay
Steelers (-200)/Lions (-230)

Risk 1x to win 1.14x

These are my two strongest plays on the side today, so I am going to par them together on the ML. I'm still debating whether to play Lions (-4) as well, but I am much more confident in them winning SU. As you know, I love the Steelers and have them set at -7 on the road. I have the Lions set at -5.5 at home, which isn't quite enough for me to take them -4. I do, however, believe they win the game. The play on the Lions is mainly predicated on their defense. I just don't think Matty Ice is going to be able to get much going in that rocking and rolling Ford Field dome especially have the coach craziness and loss last week. I have both the Steelers and Lions winning this game at a much higher percentage of the time than the price indicates, so I'm rolling with the ML parlay in this spot on both the Steelers and Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Chiefs/Raiders over (41) 1x (Locked)

I like the Raiders here as well, but love the over even with Janikowski out and Boller at qb. Once the line started to move at Pinny, I had to lock it at the key number of 41. I have this one set at 44 and I can't let that value pass me by. I expect the Chiefs to play hard and put some points on the board against this vulnerable Raiders defense. They are coming off the bye and are as healthy as they are going to get. However, they are not going to stop this Raiders vaunted rushing attack. I expect a big day out of McFadden and I think Boller will manage the offense well. The advanced stats show a pretty big mismatch in rushing offense of the Raiders versus the rushing defense of the Chiefs and I expect that to be the focal point of the Raiders attack today. This Chiefs defense will not keep up. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

So do you guys think all this Denver money coming in is legit or is it just the Tebow love. I mean, if anything, I would fade Tebow or maybe go with the over based on all the turnovers that might happen today with Moore and Tebow behind center. I couldn't put one cent on Tebow as a road fave in his fourth start though...ridiculous. I can't believe "sharp" money is the cause of this line move...

Moore was not that bad against the Jets, receivers dropped a lot of balls. I think the money on Denver is Tebow love more than anything. I like Miami here and am starting to get tempted to play it.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay
Steelers (-200)/Lions (-230)

Risk 1x to win 1.14x

These are my two strongest plays on the side today, so I am going to par them together on the ML. I'm still debating whether to play Lions (-4) as well, but I am much more confident in them winning SU. As you know, I love the Steelers and have them set at -7 on the road. I have the Lions set at -5.5 at home, which isn't quite enough for me to take them -4. I do, however, believe they win the game. The play on the Lions is mainly predicated on their defense. I just don't think Matty Ice is going to be able to get much going in that rocking and rolling Ford Field dome especially have the coach craziness and loss last week. I have both the Steelers and Lions winning this game at a much higher percentage of the time than the price indicates, so I'm rolling with the ML parlay in this spot on both the Steelers and Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Chiefs/Raiders over (41) 1x (Locked)

I like the Raiders here as well, but love the over even with Janikowski out and Boller at qb. Once the line started to move at Pinny, I had to lock it at the key number of 41. I have this one set at 44 and I can't let that value pass me by. I expect the Chiefs to play hard and put some points on the board against this vulnerable Raiders defense. They are coming off the bye and are as healthy as they are going to get. However, they are not going to stop this Raiders vaunted rushing attack. I expect a big day out of McFadden and I think Boller will manage the offense well. The advanced stats show a pretty big mismatch in rushing offense of the Raiders versus the rushing defense of the Chiefs and I expect that to be the focal point of the Raiders attack today. This Chiefs defense will not keep up. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Lions (-4) 1x (Locked)

OK, I'll bite. Once I saw the steam start to come in, I had to lock the Lions up at -4. As I stated above, the Lions and Steelers are my two highest rated plays on the side today. I have the Lions set at -5.5, but that's really close to being -6. I think the defense makes all the difference today. The Lions are really making a statement that they want to be the best defensive line in football and stats support that position. Despite their iffy running back situation, I expect the Lions to establish themselves as an elite team in this game. Their home field advantage is huge and coming off last week's killer loss, I expect a razor sharp focus. The Lions have the better statistical offense, defense and special teams, and with them playing at home with strong motivation, I have to roll with them for 1x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

I couldnt agree "moore" with red. I pounced on the dolphins as home dogs based on his performance against the jets last week. That was a huge stage and moore looked very relaxed. He got little to no help from his surrounding cast, but i think the story will be different at home today. Plus with little to no passing attack from tebow they can spy on him and shut this offense down. Not to mention denver traded their only real wr threat in lloyd. Phins get it done outright!

[Love The Action]

tebow love for sure. i want to see him play today before i make a play on denver going forward.

Moore was not that bad against the Jets, receivers dropped a lot of balls. I think the money on Denver is Tebow love more than anything. I like Miami here and am starting to get tempted to play it.

I agree with you gentlemen. This is all money from "bible belt" in the south and from people who just "want" Tebow to succeed. Sparano is a bad coach, but I still think you would have to play Miami or nothing on the side. The over intrigues me, but probably no play for me. Good luck guys

[815Sox]

I agree with you gentlemen. This is all money from "bible belt" in the south and from people who just "want" Tebow to succeed.

Exactly.

[Donnie Brasco]

What is with everyones love for arizona, minn and cleve today?

[Love The Action]

What is with everyones love for arizona, minn and cleve today?

Why, who is playing those teams?

I love the Steelers. I do lean to the Browns though and I can't believe the GB line is getting to -10.5. That seems high but I wouldn't touch the Vikings with someone else's money let alone mine.

GL Donnie