LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

fack, didn't realize you had those other plays. didn't mean to tilt you or anything. i'm rootin for a big upswing for you.

No worries bro...I never go on tilt. You just caught me right after those games ended. It was like a perfect storm of bullshit endings between the NO game and the Indy game. I was pissed but it's all good now.

Normally it wouldn't phase me but I've been killed with brutal beats over the last three weeks in NCAAF and NFL and it seems like they just keep on happening.

Nothing a 3-0 afternoon wouldn't cure though

Good luck bud

[YouHave2outs]

you too, i've been following your plays. big upswing coming

[Trivial]

Just took Bills. TT O 11 for second half.

[Trivial]

Detriot TT over 10

[Pick'nParlays]

SF team total over 10 second half -120

Cleveland will continue to punt

[ManBearPig]

Don't let it get you down too much..the NFL is tough as you know and it's been a crazy year all around from a betting standpoint. The public has been having their way winning with heavy favorites and totals have been all over the place. You have to wonder what affect the lockout is having, even though it's mid-season I'm still not convinced all the teams have their shit together as they would normally. STL today was one of the games where the dog actually did what I thought they would and not only covered, but won outright (which I didn't see).

I don't think you need to change too much in what you do except you'll have to be a little more picky and maybe trim some games until things normalize, if they do this season. Your smart and you know what your doing so this won't keep you down for too long. Personally I've found college to provide a lot more value and opportunities and would rather play them than NFL.

[freshguy222]

hey LTA, you got pretty lucky that you even got in the range of that titans over with that unreal punt return td and dont tell me you capped the saints game the way that the rams score 31 points because then you wouldve taken the spread right?dont say you capped that game perfectly because it absolutely did not pan out as you expected!
no offense here but really you didnt cap that game the way it played out.

[Love The Action]

hey LTA, you got pretty lucky that you even got in the range of that titans over with that unreal punt return td and dont tell me you capped the saints game the way that the rams score 31 points because then you wouldve taken the spread right?dont say you capped that game perfectly because it absolutely did not pan out as you expected!
no offense here but really you didnt cap that game the way it played out.

What are talking about Fresh?

First of all, I think you mean punt block td, not punt return td in the Indy game. Were you even watching?

Second of all, I played the under in the Saints game not the side. You can check my writeup on the Saints game and how I saw it playing out. My play on the under was based on stated prediction that the Saints would regress after scoring 60+ in the Indy game last week and that STL would keep the ball away from NO by resorting to the running game and possession offense.

At halftime, there was 17 points scored in the game. At the start of the fourth quarter, I had a 17 point cushion on the under. At the 2:30 mark in the fourth quarter, the score was 24-14. Consequently, with 2:30 left in the game, I had a 10 point cushion. That's as +EV as you can possibly get on an under play. So yes, when I have a 99% chance of winning an under with a 10 point cushion left at under 3 minutes to go in a game, I will say that I had it capped perfectly.

If I was betting on NO and the under, then you might be right. However, I had no position on the side. Did I predict that STL would win and the under would hit? No, I didn't. My wager was on the under and I had a 10 point cushion left with under 3 minutes. The ONLY reason we lost was because of a rare punt block TD and a pick 6 against Brees, plus a meaningless touchdown by NO with 2 seconds left. When you have a 10 point cushion with 2 minutes left, how is that not capping an under perfectly?

[CAC555]

Hey LTA, what kind of a system do you use. I have been betting for about 8 years now and this is the first year that I feel that I am finally starting to figure it out. I have been tracking my records since August first and I am hitting about 55%. I finished 40-25 in baseball, I am 54-44 so far in the NFL and I am 118-102 in NCAA football. I am up 42 units in all 4 sports combined and a unit for me is $100. I dont have an actual system though. I look at the line movement and normally go with my gut instinct. I dont always follow the line movement but it definately changes the way I look at the games. My only fear is that I play too many games. I am 215-175 in about 3 months and I am afraid that is way too many games. The thing that I learned is money management. 50% of my plays are 1 unit, 40% are 2 units and only 5-10% are for 3 units. I learned this the hard way because I used to chase my losses and it was not good. I understand the lines but I don't understand how you can know which way they are going to move before they do. Can you help me a little but it understanding how you do this because if I can figure that out, I can really increase my winnings. Thanks

[freshguy222]

i kni saw the play in the highlights was just in a hurry
i was actually referring to you saying you kept this game perfectly because if you had capped it perfectly you wouldve taken rams +14 because obviously there way more value with that than the under although i dont say it was not a bad beat, it was one. but what im referring to is that in your mind you cannot have capped this game to go over because of the rams and in your writeup you said you dont expect much from them, so i think you expected maybe 14 points at least 17 but not 31
i know that you had lots bad beats i know how that feels, the turnover this season are good for me at a 30%clip, so i know what youre talking about
anyway keep up the good work

[Love The Action]

hey LTA, you got pretty lucky that you even got in the range of that titans over with that unreal punt return td and dont tell me you capped the saints game the way that the rams score 31 points because then you wouldve taken the spread right?dont say you capped that game perfectly because it absolutely did not pan out as you expected!
no offense here but really you didnt cap that game the way it played out.

There you go dude. Read if for yourself. I predicted a regression for the Saints and a ball control possession game for STL. That is exactly what happened. The only reason we loss is because of the pick 6 and td with 2 seconds left. Now tell em how I didn't have that under capped perfectly. When you are capping a total, you are capping points, not which team scores them.

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

I risked jumping on this one too early and it's started to get back up in the 48 range after getting as low as 46.5. All the books are at 48.5 right now and it's doubtful that I beat the closer on this play. However, I told myself that if I could get 48 I should lock it in. That's what I got and that's what I did. 48 is a very important key total number and we're covering most of bigger key total numbers outside of 51. I don't see the Saints getting all the turnovers and other breaks they did last week in scoring 60+ against the Colts. Plus, with Feeley starting instead of Bradford, the Saints might have to eclipse the 48 points on their own. However, this is a bad spot for the Saints coming off that huge scoring game last week, I expect a bit of a regression on the road against a desperate Rams defense with a defensive minded head coach. Expect the Rams to play very conservatively and try to chew up clock to keep Brees off the field. There is no Ingram so the Saints are limited in the power back department down in the redzone. The Saints will definitely score, but I don't see the same type of explosion we saw last week and instead expect a bit of inconsistency from this usually razor sharp offense. We all saw what Jax did to the Ravens last week and anything is possible in the NFL where you usually have expect the unexpected. Together with the Carolina/Minny over, this is the most heavily bet over of the NFL week with over 75% of all bets on the over. I always like fading the public where it makes sense (it's not a huge factor in this day and age of sports investing, but it's never a bad idea to be on the opposite side of the public, especially where high profile teams like the Saints are involved). I have his one set at 46 and I think we see this one squeak just under the posted total. I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

[Love The Action]

i kni saw the play in the highlights was just in a hurry
i was actually referring to you saying you kept this game perfectly because if you had capped it perfectly you wouldve taken rams +14 because obviously there way more value with that than the under although i dont say it was not a bad beat, it was one. but what im referring to is that in your mind you cannot have capped this game to go over because of the rams and in your writeup you said you dont expect much from them, so i think you expected maybe 14 points at least 17 but not 31
i know that you had lots bad beats i know how that feels, the turnover this season are good for me at a 30%clip, so i know what youre talking about
anyway keep up the good work

We'll have to agree to disagree. Obviously, we cap things differently with totals. I cap totals based on points I expect in the game. I had no position on the side. I expected a weak game from NO, just like I posted in my writeup and for STL to keep the ball away with ball control possession offense. That's what happened. Again, the only reason that under lost was because of a pick 6 with under 3 minutes left and a meaningless td with 2 seconds left. I really don't see your point whatsoever. Good luck on your own plays though.

[freshguy222]

okay im fine with agreeing to disagree here

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, what kind of a system do you use. I have been betting for about 8 years now and this is the first year that I feel that I am finally starting to figure it out. I have been tracking my records since August first and I am hitting about 55%. I finished 40-25 in baseball, I am 54-44 so far in the NFL and I am 118-102 in NCAA football. I am up 42 units in all 4 sports combined and a unit for me is $100. I dont have an actual system though. I look at the line movement and normally go with my gut instinct. I dont always follow the line movement but it definately changes the way I look at the games. My only fear is that I play too many games. I am 215-175 in about 3 months and I am afraid that is way too many games. The thing that I learned is money management. 50% of my plays are 1 unit, 40% are 2 units and only 5-10% are for 3 units. I learned this the hard way because I used to chase my losses and it was not good. I understand the lines but I don't understand how you can know which way they are going to move before they do. Can you help me a little but it understanding how you do this because if I can figure that out, I can really increase my winnings. Thanks

That's great. Keep up the great work.

I don't use a system. I model the games and predict a fair line on both the side and total. Where I find value between my line and Vegas' line, I then do further research and if I like that play with value I lock it up.

I pride myself on the ability to find value early before the market hits and thereby beating closers. I feel that if you are beating the efficiency of the closing number -- which is the only thing you can control in sports investing -- then the math says you should be a long term winner. It's all about getting the best number and price.

I don't worry about how many plays I have. On some days I may have three plays and on another day I may have 10 plays. I take plays based on where I think I have the edge based on my model and my capping process. I don't care about winning percentage. I care about units won. I can afford to play a lot of games because I will end up hitting around 53% by the end of the year. Therefore, you are going to make more money hitting 53% over 100 plays than you will hitting 55% over 40 plays. I believe in churning over your BR in order to increase ROI. I firmly believe you should play every single game where you think you have an edge. The amount of games I play means nothing to me. I could play 2 games or 10 games...it's just all about spotting an edge, jumping on that game before the rest of the market and then beating closers. The wins will come as long as you are making good bets.

Good luck with your success. Seems like you are doing well. I've only beein doing this full time for a year so I am very much looking forward to 8 years from now when all of my methods are fully refined. Hopefully, by then I will miss out on all these bad beats

Cheers my friend...GL

[alamo]

Were in a spot of bother with Denver under...Still a qtr to go and we only have 3pts to spare.

[alamo]

Fck, as i type the over hits with a Detroit pick 6

[CAC555]

Thanks LTA. Good luck to you as well. I guess what I am confused about is how you model the games to come up with your own spread. I know if must be difficult to explain it. What do you use to model the game? Do you give a certain amount of points for each statistical category? You seem to be within 3 points of the actual line very often and I would love to know what you use to come up with your own spread to find the value. If you cant explain, no worries. For a long time, I would bet favorites all the time because it seemed easier, but I now only take favorites about half the time. Same thing with over/unders. I used to always bet the over because it is easier to root for points than against points. I realized that most gamblers bet with way and that is why the books win against most people. I have changed the way that I think but I don't have any way to model the game like you do. I truly end up going with my gut instinct and it has worked so far, but I feel that I am getting lucky because there is no strategy that I have.

I noticed your bad beats as well. I have had a lot of the same ones that you have had and it makes me want to go crazy. I was up 70 units about 5 weeks ago and was hitting at 62%. The last 4-5 weeks have been brutal but I am back on track this weekend. Just keep doing what you do and it will come back to you and start going your way. You seem very knowledgeable and I think that you will be fine.

[Love The Action]

Fck, as i type the over hits with a Detroit pick 6

Yeah...Detroit covered the total on their own. Tough to cap such a pathetic performance by Denver at home with a Detroit team that is missing its best RB and QB with a bum ankle. The turnovers just killed Denver and our under.

Looks like Tebowmania is deader than a doornail.

[815Sox]

When you are capping a total, you are capping points, not which team scores them.

If only we could figure out a way to predict exactly how, when and by how much a team is going to score and win....

[alamo]

Cash the easy Bills under now lets get some scoring going in the Pats game

[freshguy222]

hey lta i got another question if u dont mind
do you rate the steelers defense that bad? theyre no.1 against the pass if im not mistaken. either you must have a bad opinion of them or do you think tom brady is so good that he can put up 30 himself? thats what im not getting, because patriots got a good running game i know but they rely heavy on the pass. so thats why i didnt udnerstand your play on the over and especially what you said about the defenses (which i think you can only apply to the patriots seondary)

[Love The Action]

Wow, both NE and Pit have missed easy ass field goals. That over looks deader than a doornail. Now, that was a bad play all around. I got beat by the closer and the game lost. This was just a bad play and I don't hide that fact. Everyone makes bad plays now and then and those are the ones you should lose. It's the bad beats that I get upset about. Really need the night game to break even on the day.

[Love The Action]

Thanks LTA. Good luck to you as well. I guess what I am confused about is how you model the games to come up with your own spread. I know if must be difficult to explain it. What do you use to model the game? Do you give a certain amount of points for each statistical category? You seem to be within 3 points of the actual line very often and I would love to know what you use to come up with your own spread to find the value. If you cant explain, no worries. For a long time, I would bet favorites all the time because it seemed easier, but I now only take favorites about half the time. Same thing with over/unders. I used to always bet the over because it is easier to root for points than against points. I realized that most gamblers bet with way and that is why the books win against most people. I have changed the way that I think but I don't have any way to model the game like you do. I truly end up going with my gut instinct and it has worked so far, but I feel that I am getting lucky because there is no strategy that I have.

I noticed your bad beats as well. I have had a lot of the same ones that you have had and it makes me want to go crazy. I was up 70 units about 5 weeks ago and was hitting at 62%. The last 4-5 weeks have been brutal but I am back on track this weekend. Just keep doing what you do and it will come back to you and start going your way. You seem very knowledgeable and I think that you will be fine.

Yes, I prescribe a certain value based on advanced stats and team situations that I find important. I can't describe exactly how I do it as that would take too long. However, it sounds like you were doing great if you were up 70x! Keep up the great work

[Love The Action]

hey lta i got another question if u dont mind
do you rate the steelers defense that bad? theyre no.1 against the pass if im not mistaken. either you must have a bad opinion of them or do you think tom brady is so good that he can put up 30 himself? thats what im not getting, because patriots got a good running game i know but they rely heavy on the pass. so thats why i didnt udnerstand your play on the over and especially what you said about the defenses (which i think you can only apply to the patriots seondary)

Pittsburgh does not have the same dominating defense this year and they are missing their best pass rusher in Harrison. Pittsburgh is ranked 16th overall in DEF DVOA and 14th in DEF DAVE with an 18th ranked D for non-schedule adjusted stats. As far as rushing, they are ranked 27th in Rush D DVOA. Their defensive line is currently ranked 27th in the league in adjusted line yards and open field rank. In addition, they are only ranked 12th in Def EPA and worse than that in Def WPA. Bottom line is that Pittsburgh's defense is not the same dominating defense this year. However, both NE and Pit have top 5 offenses in most advanced statistical categories. Therefore, I expected this to be a higher scoring close game with both teams scoring in the 20's.

However, this was a bad play because I could have had 51 instead of 52 and the game closed at 51.5 so I got beat by the closer. That is why it was a bad play...not because it didn't cash. There were plenty of chances for this game to go over.

[Love The Action]

If only we could figure out a way to predict exactly how, when and by how much a team is going to score and win....

[Trivial]

If only we could figure out a way to predict exactly how, when and by how much a team is going to score and win....

They did it in back to the future. Lol. It would be nice.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a great spot to back the over with these two teams, especially at the key number of 41. There's not much value at 43 or 44, but I might play it at 42 as well. Most bets are on the under, yet we saw early money hit the over and hit it hard. I think is a great spot for both offenses to bounce back after horrible weeks where the Colts got destroyed by the Saints and the Titans were rolled by Houston. Both defenses are struggling at the moment which helps this play. However, I'm really backing the offenses in this spot rather than fading the defenses. Indy should get Painter and that passing game going today after suffering some bad breaks over and over against the Saints where multiple fumbles and ineffective pass protection killed them. Those are the sort of things that get corrected during the practice week and I expect the Colts to put up at least 17-20 points today. On the other side, this is the perfect week to Johnson going. He's healthy and ready to run against a much maligned Colts rush defense. Plus, I like Hassleback to move the ball consistently. I have this one set at 44 and I love covering the key number of 41 so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Cam Newton has exploded on the scene and I give him all the props in the world. However, he's still a rookie and running the option consistently will end up getting him killed. Even though the Vikings have a weakened secondary, their defensive line can still rush the passer, especially off the edge with Allen. On the other side, we have another rookie quarterback making his first start in Ponder who did get some action in mop up duty last week against the Packers and looked good. The Panthers defense has been porous, yet they are playing at home and Rivera is a defensive coach so I expect some interesting wrinkles for Ponder. This is a big number for the teams to go over as we are covering all the key numbers in the 40's and getting a push on 48. Although I expect this one to come close, I still see this one coming in under 47 and we have 48. I have it set at 45, so I'll take the field goal of value with the rookie quarterbacks behind center. This is one of the biggest over bets this week as far as number of bets where over 75% of all bets have come in on the over, yet the number has dropped to 46 in some spots. We're getting solid value on the under at 48 and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

This was a mistake by me in not jumping on the over at 50.5 or 51. This total opened at 52, jumped up to 52.5, then was bet down to the 50.5 or 51 range. I should have struck while the iron was hot but I was luke warm about this play at that time. When the total started to go up, I decided to jump on it at 52. It currently sits at 52.5, so at least we're a bit ahead the the game and I still expect to beat the closer. However, not covering the key number of 51 was a big error on my part. Nevertheless, I like the over here. Brady versus Roethelsburger in a battle of teams that the public think are about defense, but in actuality base their success on offense now. The Pats run an up-tempo offense that keeps defense on their heels and limits substitutions. The Pats are the number one team in the league in most advanced stats whether its ODVOA, OEPA, OWPA and especially passing efficiency numbers. On the other side, the Steelers are also offensive minded with those fast and athletic wide receiving corp. Expect the Steelers to press the Pats down the field early and often. I think we see quite a few "big" plays in this one leading to points. However, this one should be fast-paced with a lot of plays and possessions which should lead to scoring opportunities whether touchdown or FG related. Both teams have great offenses with mediocre defenses. The bet percentages slightly favor the over, but this is not a huge public play because most still think running and defense when thinking of these teams. However, both teams win with offense now and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 2x (Locked)

Here's a game where we got great value after early money bought the total down from 51 to 48. I respect early money, but I think they were setting up for a buyback on the over and that's what I see today. This total is already back up to 48.5 and I expect it to creep back up throughout the day. I know there are weather concerns in both Pittsburgh and Philly, however, all of the snow will be cleared from the field and that should not really come into play. I have this game set at 51, so the only reason I jumped on it was because of the early move. We do have two solid defenses and Philly coming off the bye. In addition, the Cowboys have a great defensive line with Ware. However, Vick's mobility and passing plan off the bye week should ready the Philly pass attack against the vaunted Cowboys D line rush. We all know about Andy Reid's post bye week success rate. I think we end up seeing a shootout and the Sunday night over trend continue. Both offenses are top ten in advanced offensive efficiency numbers and that bodes well for the over here. Rex Ryan has brought some toughness to the Cowboys defense, but the Eagles speed on the outside with their WR corp will be hard to stop when you factor in the mobility of Vick. Both teams should find success on the ground against two defenses relatively weak against the Run. I expect this one to hit the 50's and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

I risked jumping on this one too early and it's started to get back up in the 48 range after getting as low as 46.5. All the books are at 48.5 right now and it's doubtful that I beat the closer on this play. However, I told myself that if I could get 48 I should lock it in. That's what I got and that's what I did. 48 is a very important key total number and we're covering most of bigger key total numbers outside of 51. I don't see the Saints getting all the turnovers and other breaks they did last week in scoring 60+ against the Colts. Plus, with Feeley starting instead of Bradford, the Saints might have to eclipse the 48 points on their own. However, this is a bad spot for the Saints coming off that huge scoring game last week, I expect a bit of a regression on the road against a desperate Rams defense with a defensive minded head coach. Expect the Rams to play very conservatively and try to chew up clock to keep Brees off the field. There is no Ingram so the Saints are limited in the power back department down in the redzone. The Saints will definitely score, but I don't see the same type of explosion we saw last week and instead expect a bit of inconsistency from this usually razor sharp offense. We all saw what Jax did to the Ravens last week and anything is possible in the NFL where you usually have expect the unexpected. Together with the Carolina/Minny over, this is the most heavily bet over of the NFL week with over 75% of all bets on the over. I always like fading the public where it makes sense (it's not a huge factor in this day and age of sports investing, but it's never a bad idea to be on the opposite side of the public, especially where high profile teams like the Saints are involved). I have his one set at 46 and I think we see this one squeak just under the posted total. I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #6

Jaguars/Texans under (41) 1x (Locked)

We got burned last week on the Houston under because Tennessee could not stop anything the Texans were doing, but with Johnson out again I do not believe Houston will find the same offensive success two weeks in a row. I love the Jags defense and I think they come out fired up again to back up their dominate performance of last week. We are covering the most important key totals number in the NFL at 41 and I don't think the weak offense of the Jags led by Gabbert will be able to put high scoring numbers against this much improved Houston defense. I expect the Jags to concentrate on running the ball with Jones-Drew and high percentage passes that will allow Gabbert to get into a rhythm. They will take a few shots down the field with play action, but those will be few and far between. I actually expect a similar game plan from Houston without Johnson, which is why I am rolling with the under here. Again, we have most bets on the over in this game and early movement on the under. I like that combo and I'm backing the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Lions/Broncos under (44) 1x (Locked)

Late plays coming...good luck.

Play #8

Redskins/Bills under (47) 1x (Locked)

Wanted to see if it would go up, but I'll take the 47. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #4 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above.

I'm going to take a shot with this Eagles/Cowboys over. I like both teams offense in this spot. The Sunday night over trend doesn't hurt either. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Let's get it! Good luck.

[Trivial]

Added 1x to Play #4 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above.

I'm going to take a shot with this Eagles/Cowboys over. I like both teams offense in this spot. The Sunday night over trend doesn't hurt either. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Let's get it! Good luck.

Damn it. I've been burnt again. Buffalo Team Total, Cinci Team Total (pick 6 with 30 seconds to go), and all the plays everyone else has. Sigh.

Well, I know all about money management, but I am with LTA. It is ridiculous, and I do not have any less respect for LTA. I have been doing this long enough to know about bad streaks.

I'm going 10 units tonight on Dallas / Philly over 48. I love the play in prime time, and really need it before cashing out and calling it a season until playoffs.

[Love The Action]

Damn it. I've been burnt again. Buffalo Team Total, Cinci Team Total (pick 6 with 30 seconds to go), and all the plays everyone else has. Sigh.

Well, I know all about money management, but I am with LTA. It is ridiculous, and I do not have any less respect for LTA. I have been doing this long enough to know about bad streaks.

I'm going 10 units tonight on Dallas / Philly over 48. I love the play in prime time, and really need it before cashing out and calling it a season until playoffs.

Whoa...that's a pretty big wager for tonight. Good looking line move though as the total is up to 49 with juice on the over.

But I thought you had a decent day? My plays are 3-4 going into tonight, with a nice shot at a profitable day if we can hit this Sunday night over. Plus, you hit the the Rams and the Cardinals. I thought you were actually ahead for the day even with your TT losses on the late games. Why you chasing for 10x? It wasn't that bad of a day, was it?

[Trivial]

Whoa...that's a pretty big wager for tonight. Good looking line move though as the total is up to 49 with juice on the over.

But I thought you had a decent day? My plays are 3-4 going into tonight, with a nice shot at a profitable day if we can hit this Sunday night over. Plus, you hit the the Rams and the Cardinals. I thought you were actually ahead for the day even with your TT losses on the late games. Why you chasing for 10x? It wasn't that bad of a day, was it?

Not a terrible day, I have had worse by far, but I didn't post all the live plays I did since I was on the road, I just did them online, and went about my day (all late games, as I watched the early games).

It was a daddy daughter late afternoon today, so I had my iPhone and a prayer.

You are right, I hit the Rams and The Cardinals which most people likely didn't, but had a few live plays beat me in the head. The Pitts game made me puke at the end as I should have gotten that OVER 43 if some stupid things were completed. That safety at the end is just a kick in the ass. Was really hoping it would be overturned for a TD. I guess I really can't complain actually. I've had a decent run on live bets in baseball and NFL to actually keep me here typing to everyone and saying good morning.

So I'm personally definitely down on the day. I should really be posting all my live picks to share, but just didn't have the time on the road as I should have. My apologies to all, as this is about sharing, but looks like I did you all a favour today.

Lets get the OVER tonight. My hope is we are done by the first half, and I get to go to bed early.

[badhunter]

Not quite, pal. I bet $1K to $10k a game - the latter is what you make in six months, I'm sure. I'm a sharp who laughs at little boys like you. Anyone in the business knows the only way to make money is to go narrow and deep. Betting 2-4 games is a week on "informational plays" is far more efficient - and profitable - than using your bullshit "math" and "equations" and betting 10-20 games week. Don't fukk with me.

[Redscot]

Damn it. I've been burnt again. Buffalo Team Total, Cinci Team Total (pick 6 with 30 seconds to go), and all the plays everyone else has. Sigh.

Well, I know all about money management, but I am with LTA. It is ridiculous, and I do not have any less respect for LTA. I have been doing this long enough to know about bad streaks.

I'm going 10 units tonight on Dallas / Philly over 48. I love the play in prime time, and really need it before cashing out and calling it a season until playoffs.

Triv, hoping you are pulling our leg here bro. But if not, hey, I have been there and wish you the best tonight bro . Risking overstepping here, but, it's dangerous exposing your BR like that in the long run, especially with a ton of season left and the tendency for LTA's system to get sharper as the season unwinds......riding the over with ya, lets get that escarole!

[Redscot]

Not quite, pal. I bet $1K to $10k a game - the latter is what you make in six months, I'm sure. I'm a sharp who laughs at little boys like you. Anyone in the business knows the only way to make money is to go narrow and deep. Betting 2-4 games is a week on "informational plays" is far more efficient - and profitable - than using your bullshit "math" and "equations" and betting 10-20 games week. Don't fukk with me.

Rock on . When I am mackin' like you I will make sure I drop in on piddlin' message boards to let them know how large I am too. YEAH!!! Whoooooooo!

[Love The Action]

Not quite, pal. I bet $1K to $10k a game - the latter is what you make in six months, I'm sure. I'm a sharp who laughs at little boys like you. Anyone in the business knows the only way to make money is to go narrow and deep. Betting 2-4 games is a week on "informational plays" is far more efficient - and profitable - than using your bullshit "math" and "equations" and betting 10-20 games week. Don't fukk with me.

Clown.

Post some plays and let's see what you got big shot. It's so easy to talk like a big guy without putting yourself out there.

But your're right...I usually make about $10K every six months from sports investing. I'm not looking to make any more at this point in time, because I am at the perfect risk factor right now. I'm just trying to supplement my six figure income from my real career. The extra money I make from sports investing pays for vacations, day care for the baby and whatever else my wife wants to buy for herself.

I have no desire to try to live and die by what I make through sports investing. Let me ask you...does your $10K bets cover your health care? How do you pay for your child's college eduction? Well that assumes you actually found someone to procreate with a troll like yourself. What happens when you go on a tough losing month? Are you able to make the bills? Or are you just living in your mom's basement talking shit like a troll?

I envision getting up to the $1K per play at some point though. Even though I've been messing around with sports betting since high school, I have only been doing this for a little over 1.5 years full time after developing my models. I'm still tweaking my process and always learning from new experiences. Give me some time big shot. Then I'll be making as much as you from sports investing, plus I'll have a great career and life with a wonderful family that supports me. I bet you have a very lonely life and existence. It must be depressing being a troll.

[No coincidences]

WTF has happened to this site?