LTA's NFL PLays

[Redscot]

What is with everyones love for arizona, minn and cleve today?

Not sure Donnie, I think they all lose personally. G.B. is not gonna get "trapped" they were pissed they didn't tack on more points last week, they are a very professional team right now, I don't see them leaving their guard down.

I like Seattle off the bye week, giving Whitehurst reps with 1st offense.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay
Steelers (-200)/Lions (-230)

Risk 1x to win 1.14x

These are my two strongest plays on the side today, so I am going to par them together on the ML. I'm still debating whether to play Lions (-4) as well, but I am much more confident in them winning SU. As you know, I love the Steelers and have them set at -7 on the road. I have the Lions set at -5.5 at home, which isn't quite enough for me to take them -4. I do, however, believe they win the game. The play on the Lions is mainly predicated on their defense. I just don't think Matty Ice is going to be able to get much going in that rocking and rolling Ford Field dome especially have the coach craziness and loss last week. I have both the Steelers and Lions winning this game at a much higher percentage of the time than the price indicates, so I'm rolling with the ML parlay in this spot on both the Steelers and Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Chiefs/Raiders over (41) 1x (Locked)

I like the Raiders here as well, but love the over even with Janikowski out and Boller at qb. Once the line started to move at Pinny, I had to lock it at the key number of 41. I have this one set at 44 and I can't let that value pass me by. I expect the Chiefs to play hard and put some points on the board against this vulnerable Raiders defense. They are coming off the bye and are as healthy as they are going to get. However, they are not going to stop this Raiders vaunted rushing attack. I expect a big day out of McFadden and I think Boller will manage the offense well. The advanced stats show a pretty big mismatch in rushing offense of the Raiders versus the rushing defense of the Chiefs and I expect that to be the focal point of the Raiders attack today. This Chiefs defense will not keep up. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Lions (-4) 1x (Locked)

OK, I'll bite. Once I saw the steam start to come in, I had to lock the Lions up at -4. As I stated above, the Lions and Steelers are my two highest rated plays on the side today. I have the Lions set at -5.5, but that's really close to being -6. I think the defense makes all the difference today. The Lions are really making a statement that they want to be the best defensive line in football and stats support that position. Despite their iffy running back situation, I expect the Lions to establish themselves as an elite team in this game. Their home field advantage is huge and coming off last week's killer loss, I expect a razor sharp focus. The Lions have the better statistical offense, defense and special teams, and with them playing at home with strong motivation, I have to roll with them for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Steelers/Cardinals over (44) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups, lines are hot! Good luck.

[BigDan]

like the card brother...on pit already and think ill join you on the tb/chi over even tho a lot of these have been snoozers i tend to think nfl puts on a scoring show for these folks today, kinda falls in line with my ppl love overs and the nfl loves the ppl theme..

with all you guys im pretty tempted to play mia, pains me to lay money on this squad but the Teblow love is nauseating to me...

thoughts on atl/det total? been torn on the side all week but either way i slice it i think we see both teams hit 24 at least...

[Redscot]

Thinking of teasing Miami up to 7 1/2 and the Texans to 9......I like Miami straight up , but like the insurance...I think the Texans/Tennessee game comes down to the final possessions.

[Love The Action]

I really like the Atlanta/Detroit under as well, but only at 48 or more. I can get 47 now, which is a really important key number, but with Atlanta's horrible pass defense, I would prefer protection on the key number of 48. A tease of Detroit and the under with Steelers and over might not be a bad idea. Although, that would break a lot of teaser "rules".....

[Trivial]

Okay, I am an action junkie.

Just took a parlay. DET, DAL, NO and GB ML.

One unit to pay just over even money.

[dee_jas]

bears/tb playing in london tonight, does that not affect the over?

[Love The Action]

I leaned to the Jets and the Jets/SD over; Browns and Browns/Sea over; Denver/Miami over; Atl/Det under; and Wash/Car over for the early games.

[Love The Action]

bears/tb playing in london tonight, does that not affect the over?

No...not really. It's only a tiny factor, I just mentioned it because I get sick of just talking about the same old stats and situational angles in my writeups....Good luck, sir

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay
Steelers (-200)/Lions (-230)

Risk 1x to win 1.14x

These are my two strongest plays on the side today, so I am going to par them together on the ML. I'm still debating whether to play Lions (-4) as well, but I am much more confident in them winning SU. As you know, I love the Steelers and have them set at -7 on the road. I have the Lions set at -5.5 at home, which isn't quite enough for me to take them -4. I do, however, believe they win the game. The play on the Lions is mainly predicated on their defense. I just don't think Matty Ice is going to be able to get much going in that rocking and rolling Ford Field dome especially have the coach craziness and loss last week. I have both the Steelers and Lions winning this game at a much higher percentage of the time than the price indicates, so I'm rolling with the ML parlay in this spot on both the Steelers and Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Chiefs/Raiders over (41) 1x (Locked)

I like the Raiders here as well, but love the over even with Janikowski out and Boller at qb. Once the line started to move at Pinny, I had to lock it at the key number of 41. I have this one set at 44 and I can't let that value pass me by. I expect the Chiefs to play hard and put some points on the board against this vulnerable Raiders defense. They are coming off the bye and are as healthy as they are going to get. However, they are not going to stop this Raiders vaunted rushing attack. I expect a big day out of McFadden and I think Boller will manage the offense well. The advanced stats show a pretty big mismatch in rushing offense of the Raiders versus the rushing defense of the Chiefs and I expect that to be the focal point of the Raiders attack today. This Chiefs defense will not keep up. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Lions (-4) 1x (Locked)

OK, I'll bite. Once I saw the steam start to come in, I had to lock the Lions up at -4. As I stated above, the Lions and Steelers are my two highest rated plays on the side today. I have the Lions set at -5.5, but that's really close to being -6. I think the defense makes all the difference today. The Lions are really making a statement that they want to be the best defensive line in football and stats support that position. Despite their iffy running back situation, I expect the Lions to establish themselves as an elite team in this game. Their home field advantage is huge and coming off last week's killer loss, I expect a razor sharp focus. The Lions have the better statistical offense, defense and special teams, and with them playing at home with strong motivation, I have to roll with them for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Steelers/Cardinals over (44) 1x (Locked)

My 3x play on the Steelers is not predicated on the lack of a Cardinals offense, it's primarily a fade of Arizona's defense. I fully expect Larry Fitzgerald and co. to score some points against Pittsburgh. However, when it's said and done, I expect the Steelers to win this game by 7 points. The stats here are just squarely in favor of the Steelers and I expect them to get Mendenhall going today. However, let's not sleep on the Arizona's offense which has some encouraging advanced stat love. I have this game set at 46 and it's certainly headed that way as evidenced by the line movement. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

MONEYLINE ACTION PARLAY (Not for Records win or lose)

Detoit (-230)
Oakland (-200)
Pittsburgh (-210)
Green Bay (-550)
Baltimore (-500)

Pays about 3.3x for every 1x wagered

I don't make action plays unless I am 100% confident in cashing them. We have cashed our last three MLB Action parlays and I trust we'll make it four with this one. Each one of those teams has a higher percentage of winning this game than represented according to my model. Therefore, I'm going to take a shot. Good luck.

That's the card so far going into the late afternoon plays. I am also looking hard at a play on the MNF total that I may release before the end of the day. Good luck today gentlemen.

[Love The Action]

The Bears need to cut Roy Williams...he is true garbage.

[Love The Action]

I just can't believe how these game are playing out. Tennessee just keeps on turning the ball over and giving Houston easy scoring opportunities. In addition, they can't stop anyone and give up big plays. They gave the ball back and suffered a late field goal to end the 1h, which gave us a 24 point cushion going into the 2h for the under. Then Tenn gives up an easy TD and so does Houston to start the half.


In the Bears game, Briggs intercepts Freeman for a touchdown which would have meant we only needed 10 points for the cashing ticket on the over. Instead, the play is brought back all the way to the 50 yard line and the bears don't score. Then Robbie Gould misses an easy 40 yard field goal which would meant we only needed 2 td's to cash. Now, all of these missed scoring chances leave us still needing 17 points just for the push with the third quarter almost over...that's 10 fuking points lost!!! As I type this, Hester just gets a 30 yard punt return called back because of penalty...I can't take it LOL

We all know what Detroit has done to screw us in that game.

I have straight up experienced more bad beats in the last two weeks of NCAAF and NFL than I did all last season in both sports. I just don't get it. I know it sounds like bitching, but I need to vent and this is my only outlet. I can't get mad and throw shit with the wife and baby sitting next to me so I have to stay calm on the outside. But inside I want to go fuking crazy. Thi sis just unbelievable how I have been a magnet for bad beats these last two weeks. It is seriously draining me of any enjoyment I get out of all this hard work I put in...

[SUPREME]

Detroit & Tenn CAN'T be serious right now......

[Love The Action]

Oh my fuking god...now TB is about to score and they throw another pick on the Bears 5 yard line to stop yet another fuking scoring drive. .

Whoever bet the under in this game got so fuking lucky...I wish I could get some luck....between all the bad beats the last two weeks i just want to fuking puke. I don't know what to do right now...I just want to go fuking break something.

I just want to be on the other end of these fuking plays just once....just fuking once....I think I'm having a breakdown boys

Just kidding, but it does get very frustating and having no other outlet to vent than SBR, all my anger has to be let out through these posts or my wife and baby would think I'm crazy. Even when TB scores, they go for a fuking two point conversion and miss it!!!!!

[Love The Action]

Note that we lose the Tenn/Hou under by 4 points!!!! Unreall...if someone wants to get sick to their stomach, go to ESPN and read the play by play history....

[Love The Action]

Bears cant even score from the five yard line to give us the winner despite 6 chances after a tb penalty..i cant fuking take this shit....so unveliebable....you couldnt make this shit up...a one point loss after missed 39 yard field goal, an interception pick 6 called back because of penalty and numerous chances to score from inside the 10 yard line by both teams. I have never been so frustrated from sports investing than I currently am because of these last two weeks.

[YouHave2outs]

I have never been so frustrated from sports investing than I currently am because of these last two weeks.

it shows how frustrated you are! keep at it g, i been tailing a few of your picks. keep a positive frame of mind. you know you're gonna have a big win streak soon.

[Redscot]

Got me a small little action parlay for fun ML pays out over 40-1
Hawks
Texans
Falcons
Chiefs

Damn, Lynch might have made the difference here.....oh well.....Jets came up big for me so can't complain.

Bad run LTA, coupled with the stretch of bad beats you had in MLB you must feel like you are cursed atm, I feel ya bro. Ain't nothin' to it but to do it. You'll get the breaks soon, and I'll be there to cash'em!

[YouHave2outs]

Ain't nothin' to it but to do it. You'll get the breaks soon, and I'll be there to cash'em!

+1 bro

[Donnie Brasco]

You will bounce back bro. I would stay away from nfl though. This shit has become wwe wrestling. The refs have way too much control, call ticky tack shit and it is too unpredictable! Take indy tonight, no way saints cover 13.5!

[YouHave2outs]

The refs have way too much control, call ticky tack shit and it is too unpredictable! Take indy tonight, no way saints cover 13.5!

gtfo with thinking refs rig anything. (lay off nfl, stick with nba right)


with you on that pick though

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, nice hit on the Steelers. What do you like for tonight ? What do you think about teasing Saints - 6,5 & Ravens - 2,5 ?

[Love The Action]

Thanks guys....sorry about bitching earlier, but I had a few beers in me as I was watching the Bears game with my family. I just couldn't believe that one didn't cash. There was about ten chances for points that were lost in that game. I was so pissed, but I can't go crazy with the wife and baby around so I depend on this forum to vent. I appreciate that outlet for my frustration. Much appreciated.

Bottom line is that we should have cashed that Bears over and that Houston under...got robbed again but that's nothing new based on the last two weeks of NCAAF and NFL. But it's not like we're making bad plays. We beat the closer on every single play today, so as long as keep doing the winning tickets will eventually come. Hopefully fuking sooner rather than later because I can't take many more bad beats like the last two weekends.

Now, onto a possible play for Sunday night. I also just locked in my MNF totals play. Good luck tonight guys!

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay
Steelers (-200)/Lions (-230)

Risk 1x to win 1.14x

These are my two strongest plays on the side today, so I am going to par them together on the ML. I'm still debating whether to play Lions (-4) as well, but I am much more confident in them winning SU. As you know, I love the Steelers and have them set at -7 on the road. I have the Lions set at -5.5 at home, which isn't quite enough for me to take them -4. I do, however, believe they win the game. The play on the Lions is mainly predicated on their defense. I just don't think Matty Ice is going to be able to get much going in that rocking and rolling Ford Field dome especially have the coach craziness and loss last week. I have both the Steelers and Lions winning this game at a much higher percentage of the time than the price indicates, so I'm rolling with the ML parlay in this spot on both the Steelers and Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Chiefs/Raiders over (41) 1x (Locked)

I like the Raiders here as well, but love the over even with Janikowski out and Boller at qb. Once the line started to move at Pinny, I had to lock it at the key number of 41. I have this one set at 44 and I can't let that value pass me by. I expect the Chiefs to play hard and put some points on the board against this vulnerable Raiders defense. They are coming off the bye and are as healthy as they are going to get. However, they are not going to stop this Raiders vaunted rushing attack. I expect a big day out of McFadden and I think Boller will manage the offense well. The advanced stats show a pretty big mismatch in rushing offense of the Raiders versus the rushing defense of the Chiefs and I expect that to be the focal point of the Raiders attack today. This Chiefs defense will not keep up. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Lions (-4) 1x (Locked)

OK, I'll bite. Once I saw the steam start to come in, I had to lock the Lions up at -4. As I stated above, the Lions and Steelers are my two highest rated plays on the side today. I have the Lions set at -5.5, but that's really close to being -6. I think the defense makes all the difference today. The Lions are really making a statement that they want to be the best defensive line in football and stats support that position. Despite their iffy running back situation, I expect the Lions to establish themselves as an elite team in this game. Their home field advantage is huge and coming off last week's killer loss, I expect a razor sharp focus. The Lions have the better statistical offense, defense and special teams, and with them playing at home with strong motivation, I have to roll with them for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Steelers/Cardinals over (44) 1x (Locked)

My 3x play on the Steelers is not predicated on the lack of a Cardinals offense, it's primarily a fade of Arizona's defense. I fully expect Larry Fitzgerald and co. to score some points against Pittsburgh. However, when it's said and done, I expect the Steelers to win this game by 7 points. The stats here are just squarely in favor of the Steelers and I expect them to get Mendenhall going today. However, let's not sleep on the Arizona's offense which has some encouraging advanced stat love. I have this game set at 46 and it's certainly headed that way as evidenced by the line movement. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Ravens/Jaguars under (40) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come...possible SNF play coming up as well but wanted to get this one posted as I forgot to post it earlier. You can still find 40 at Legends and Bodog btw if you like this play....Good luck.

[Vin_vermillion]

Thanks guys....sorry about bitching earlier, but I had a few beers in me as I was watching the Bears game with my family. I just couldn't believe that one didn't cash. There was about ten chances for points that were lost in that game. I was so pissed, but I can't go crazy with the wife and baby around so I depend on this forum to vent. I appreciate that outlet for my frustration. Much appreciated.

Bottom line is that we should have cashed that Bears over and that Houston under...got robbed again but that's nothing new based on the last two weeks of NCAAF and NFL. But it's not like we're making bad plays. We beat the under on every single play today, so as long as keep doing the winning tickets will eventually come. Hopefully fuking sooner rather than later because I can't take many more bad beats like the last two weekends.

Now, onto a possible play for Sunday night. I also just locked in my MNF totals play. Good luck tonight guys!

dude I find this the best forum ever to vent when drinking and pissed about a loss. No one else thinks I am funny, but I crack myself up when I am drunk and pissed on this site.

[Luv2Play2]

well fuc i had the chargers.. and fish .. just cant seem to get over the hump.. bol always LTA

[SUPREME]

Tonight's game!?!?

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

Steelers (-3.5) 3x (Locked)

The Steelers need to prove themselves on the road and I expect this to present a great opportunity. Arizona's defensive injuries, especially to the defensive backfield, will present a plethora of scoring opportunities for Big Ben down the field and that's exactly what I expect from the Steelers. They will run the ball with effectiveness and use the run to set up the play action vertical passing game. I expect the Steelers to roll in a game that flies over the posted total. Therefore, I may end up playing both the Steelers and over in this one. The Steelers are the 10th ranked team in DVOA efficiency compared to Arizona's 30th ranking. This is a huge disparity that I just don't see Arizona overcoming even though they are playing at home. After some early season missteps, the Steelers need to rack up wins and this game presents a perfect opportunity. They have the stats in their favor as evidence by an advantage in every major advanced stat whether Off EPA or WPA or Def EPA or WPA, this presents a huge mismatch. I have this one set with Pittsburgh as -7 favorites. That may sound like a lot of road chalk for an inconsistent Steelers team, however, the stats and situational angles strongly support this play. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 3x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston/Tennessee under (44) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a case of two ailing offenses squaring off against improved defenses. Both teams best receiver is out of this game with Johnson and Britt sidelined. That really leave both teams limited in scoring weapons. What ends up happening is that each team's best offensive player is Arian Foster and Chris Johnson. However, even those guys are dinged up a bit. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to employ a clock management type game predicated around defense and special teams. This should not turn into a shootout as I expect the run game to dominate along with some strong defensive play from these surprisingly high ranked defenses via the advanced stats. I have this play at 41 so I'm going to jump all over those 3 points of value because we are pushing on the key number of 44 and winning if ends up on the key numbers of 41 and 43. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Chicago/TB over (43) 1x (Locked)

Once I was able to get 43, I had to jump on it. I suspect that number will be coming because my local is usually ahead of the curve just a bit as he follows 5d/Pinny lines. My other local who follows Legends is still at 44. I would probably play it at 44 if I had to, but much prefer 43. I have made a lot of money on Bears unders this year, but I think this is a great spot for the over. Both offenses are not as bad as they first appear as long as they get protection. Both Cutler and Freeman are big, mobile quarterbacks with strong arms. With this being an overseas games, for some reason these games end up going over and I think this one does as well. The over was hit immediately at open and the refs won't let anything slide in front of foreign fans. Both offenses, although bottom of the league in conventional stats, are not as bad when you look at the advanced stat numbers. I have this one at 46.5 and I'm going to roll with the over at the key totals number 43 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

ML Parlay
Steelers (-200)/Lions (-230)

Risk 1x to win 1.14x

These are my two strongest plays on the side today, so I am going to par them together on the ML. I'm still debating whether to play Lions (-4) as well, but I am much more confident in them winning SU. As you know, I love the Steelers and have them set at -7 on the road. I have the Lions set at -5.5 at home, which isn't quite enough for me to take them -4. I do, however, believe they win the game. The play on the Lions is mainly predicated on their defense. I just don't think Matty Ice is going to be able to get much going in that rocking and rolling Ford Field dome especially have the coach craziness and loss last week. I have both the Steelers and Lions winning this game at a much higher percentage of the time than the price indicates, so I'm rolling with the ML parlay in this spot on both the Steelers and Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Chiefs/Raiders over (41) 1x (Locked)

I like the Raiders here as well, but love the over even with Janikowski out and Boller at qb. Once the line started to move at Pinny, I had to lock it at the key number of 41. I have this one set at 44 and I can't let that value pass me by. I expect the Chiefs to play hard and put some points on the board against this vulnerable Raiders defense. They are coming off the bye and are as healthy as they are going to get. However, they are not going to stop this Raiders vaunted rushing attack. I expect a big day out of McFadden and I think Boller will manage the offense well. The advanced stats show a pretty big mismatch in rushing offense of the Raiders versus the rushing defense of the Chiefs and I expect that to be the focal point of the Raiders attack today. This Chiefs defense will not keep up. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Lions (-4) 1x (Locked)

OK, I'll bite. Once I saw the steam start to come in, I had to lock the Lions up at -4. As I stated above, the Lions and Steelers are my two highest rated plays on the side today. I have the Lions set at -5.5, but that's really close to being -6. I think the defense makes all the difference today. The Lions are really making a statement that they want to be the best defensive line in football and stats support that position. Despite their iffy running back situation, I expect the Lions to establish themselves as an elite team in this game. Their home field advantage is huge and coming off last week's killer loss, I expect a razor sharp focus. The Lions have the better statistical offense, defense and special teams, and with them playing at home with strong motivation, I have to roll with them for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Steelers/Cardinals over (44) 1x (Locked)

My 3x play on the Steelers is not predicated on the lack of a Cardinals offense, it's primarily a fade of Arizona's defense. I fully expect Larry Fitzgerald and co. to score some points against Pittsburgh. However, when it's said and done, I expect the Steelers to win this game by 7 points. The stats here are just squarely in favor of the Steelers and I expect them to get Mendenhall going today. However, let's not sleep on the Arizona's offense which has some encouraging advanced stat love. I have this game set at 46 and it's certainly headed that way as evidenced by the line movement. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Ravens/Jaguars under (40) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come...possible SNF play coming up as well but wanted to get this one posted as I forgot to post it earlier. You can still find 40 at Legends and Bodog btw if you like this play....Good luck.

Play #9

Colts/Saints over (48) 1x (Locked)

Once I saw this number flash over the screen ever so briefly, I had no choice but to bit. I have this total set at 50 and probably wouldn't have taken 49, but once I could cover the key number of 48 on the push I had to take it. Curtis Painter has performed well so far this year and the Saints will be looking for an explosive performance after their loss last week to the Bucs. I expect a lot of scoring in this game early and often. The Saints play a quick pace with big play ability and the Colts will have no choice but to get the ball to their biggest playmakers who are all receivers. Therefore, I expect this one to just squeak over the posted total and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Tonight's game!?!?

Yeah, I faded the late line movement towards the under and rocked the over at 48. The stats scream a huge game for Brees against this week Colts defense and especially pass defense and I actually think Painter can put three touchdowns on the board for the Colts. Good luck, Sir.

[SUPREME]

No. I was actually waiting to hear your play. You posted after game started...

[SUPREME]

I would've tailed too. I liked the over myself and was waiting on your go ahead. Kept refreshing the page, but game had started...

[Trivial]

Good luck LTA. I so wish I saw that earlier.

I took Indy +13.5.

[Trivial]

I normally stay away from 2h bets but I may have to hedge.

[Love The Action]

I would've tailed too. I liked the over myself and was waiting on your go ahead. Kept refreshing the page, but game had started...

My apologies, but to be fair, I posted with six minutes left to lock it in before the books took it off the board.

I probably would not have played it at 49. The only reason I played it was because I was able to get 48 about 8 minutes before kickoff. As soon as I locked it, I went to post it. I always try to give a few thoughts about why I like a play and that probably took up a few more minutes. However, I did post it with time left before game time....albeit not much. Note that I posted it 8:34 and the books took the play off the board at 8:40. That was six minutes before game time.

Who knows what's going to happen anyway, with my luck lately it might not even cash...

[Trivial]

Over 21 2h (-105). Took 2.5 units.