LTA's NFL PLays

[SimonSayz]

Here are some plays I am eyeing... Cleveland +8.5, Denver +3, Arizona +12, Jags +9, Jags OVER 40.5 and I took Saints +13.5.

You mean Saints -13.5??

I am all over that.

[Trivial]

You mean Saints -13.5??

I am all over that.

Sorry - I meant Rams +13.5. I typed it correctly earlier on this morning, and then the second time wrong.

[Love The Action]

Please post any up-to-date injury info you come across. Please also post your favorite spots for injury info. Thanks

[Love The Action]

Stafford definitely starting for the Lions...

[badhunter]

Anyone who bets that many games in one day is either 1) a broke college kid playing $10 a game; 2) someone who plays for fun because this strategy has cost him thousands of dollars and he's broke.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a great spot to back the over with these two teams, especially at the key number of 41. There's not much value at 43 or 44, but I might play it at 42 as well. Most bets are on the under, yet we saw early money hit the over and hit it hard. I think is a great spot for both offenses to bounce back after horrible weeks where the Colts got destroyed by the Saints and the Titans were rolled by Houston. Both defenses are struggling at the moment which helps this play. However, I'm really backing the offenses in this spot rather than fading the defenses. Indy should get Painter and that passing game going today after suffering some bad breaks over and over against the Saints where multiple fumbles and ineffective pass protection killed them. Those are the sort of things that get corrected during the practice week and I expect the Colts to put up at least 17-20 points today. On the other side, this is the perfect week to Johnson going. He's healthy and ready to run against a much maligned Colts rush defense. Plus, I like Hassleback to move the ball consistently. I have this one set at 44 and I love covering the key number of 41 so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Cam Newton has exploded on the scene and I give him all the props in the world. However, he's still a rookie and running the option consistently will end up getting him killed. Even though the Vikings have a weakened secondary, their defensive line can still rush the passer, especially off the edge with Allen. On the other side, we have another rookie quarterback making his first start in Ponder who did get some action in mop up duty last week against the Packers and looked good. The Panthers defense has been porous, yet they are playing at home and Rivera is a defensive coach so I expect some interesting wrinkles for Ponder. This is a big number for the teams to go over as we are covering all the key numbers in the 40's and getting a push on 48. Although I expect this one to come close, I still see this one coming in under 47 and we have 48. I have it set at 45, so I'll take the field goal of value with the rookie quarterbacks behind center. This is one of the biggest over bets this week as far as number of bets where over 75% of all bets have come in on the over, yet the number has dropped to 46 in some spots. We're getting solid value on the under at 48 and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

This was a mistake by me in not jumping on the over at 50.5 or 51. This total opened at 52, jumped up to 52.5, then was bet down to the 50.5 or 51 range. I should have struck while the iron was hot but I was luke warm about this play at that time. When the total started to go up, I decided to jump on it at 52. It currently sits at 52.5, so at least we're a bit ahead the the game and I still expect to beat the closer. However, not covering the key number of 51 was a big error on my part. Nevertheless, I like the over here. Brady versus Roethelsburger in a battle of teams that the public think are about defense, but in actuality base their success on offense now. The Pats run an up-tempo offense that keeps defense on their heels and limits substitutions. The Pats are the number one team in the league in most advanced stats whether its ODVOA, OEPA, OWPA and especially passing efficiency numbers. On the other side, the Steelers are also offensive minded with those fast and athletic wide receiving corp. Expect the Steelers to press the Pats down the field early and often. I think we see quite a few "big" plays in this one leading to points. However, this one should be fast-paced with a lot of plays and possessions which should lead to scoring opportunities whether touchdown or FG related. Both teams have great offenses with mediocre defenses. The bet percentages slightly favor the over, but this is not a huge public play because most still think running and defense when thinking of these teams. However, both teams win with offense now and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 1x (Locked)

Here's a game where we got great value after early money bought the total down from 51 to 48. I respect early money, but I think they were setting up for a buyback on the over and that's what I see today. This total is already back up to 48.5 and I expect it to creep back up throughout the day. I know there are weather concerns in both Pittsburgh and Philly, however, all of the snow will be cleared from the field and that should not really come into play. I have this game set at 51, so the only reason I jumped on it was because of the early move. We do have two solid defenses and Philly coming off the bye. In addition, the Cowboys have a great defensive line with Ware. However, Vick's mobility and passing plan off the bye week should ready the Philly pass attack against the vaunted Cowboys D line rush. We all know about Andy Reid's post bye week success rate. I think we end up seeing a shootout and the Sunday night over trend continue. Both offenses are top ten in advanced offensive efficiency numbers and that bodes well for the over here. Rex Ryan has brought some toughness to the Cowboys defense, but the Eagles speed on the outside with their WR corp will be hard to stop when you factor in the mobility of Vick. Both teams should find success on the ground against two defenses relatively weak against the Run. I expect this one to hit the 50's and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

I risked jumping on this one too early and it's started to get back up in the 48 range after getting as low as 46.5. All the books are at 48.5 right now and it's doubtful that I beat the closer on this play. However, I told myself that if I could get 48 I should lock it in. That's what I got and that's what I did. 48 is a very important key total number and we're covering most of bigger key total numbers outside of 51. I don't see the Saints getting all the turnovers and other breaks they did last week in scoring 60+ against the Colts. Plus, with Feeley starting instead of Bradford, the Saints might have to eclipse the 48 points on their own. However, this is a bad spot for the Saints coming off that huge scoring game last week, I expect a bit of a regression on the road against a desperate Rams defense with a defensive minded head coach. Expect the Rams to play very conservatively and try to chew up clock to keep Brees off the field. There is no Ingram so the Saints are limited in the power back department down in the redzone. The Saints will definitely score, but I don't see the same type of explosion we saw last week and instead expect a bit of inconsistency from this usually razor sharp offense. We all saw what Jax did to the Ravens last week and anything is possible in the NFL where you usually have expect the unexpected. Together with the Carolina/Minny over, this is the most heavily bet over of the NFL week with over 75% of all bets on the over. I always like fading the public where it makes sense (it's not a huge factor in this day and age of sports investing, but it's never a bad idea to be on the opposite side of the public, especially where high profile teams like the Saints are involved). I have his one set at 46 and I think we see this one squeak just under the posted total. I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #6

Jaguars/Texans under (41) 1x (Locked)

We got burned last week on the Houston under because Tennessee could not stop anything the Texans were doing, but with Johnson out again I do not believe Houston will find the same offensive success two weeks in a row. I love the Jags defense and I think they come out fired up again to back up their dominate performance of last week. We are covering the most important key totals number in the NFL at 41 and I don't think the weak offense of the Jags led by Gabbert will be able to put high scoring numbers against this much improved Houston defense. I expect the Jags to concentrate on running the ball with Jones-Drew and high percentage passes that will allow Gabbert to get into a rhythm. They will take a few shots down the field with play action, but those will be few and far between. I actually expect a similar game plan from Houston without Johnson, which is why I am rolling with the under here. Again, we have most bets on the over in this game and early movement on the under. I like that combo and I'm backing the under for 1x. Good luck.

Updated card with writeups. We're getting back to basics a little bit this week with all totals on the card so far. There are not a lot of side plays worth investing this week, but I might have a few before it's all said and down. It just hit 11am EST and this is when the big line moves happen, so I'm getting back to monitoring the lines. I will probably have a few more plays and maybe a teaser or two. Good luck today.

[Love The Action]

Anyone who bets that many games in one day is either 1) a broke college kid playing $10 a game; 2) someone who plays for fun because this strategy has cost him thousands of dollars and he's broke.

You have no clue about me and you couldn't be more wrong. But I have no desire to waste my time going over my long term track record of success in all sports. I have various season threads and am up in all sports except NCAAF right now (go to the first page of this thread and there are links to all of my other threads).

I am conservative by nature with strict money management, but do believe in always making a play in all games where I find an edge through my model and process. I use a math model and cap every game on the board. I believe in a high volume of plays in order to churn over my bankroll and increase my ROI. I am not interested in a high winning percentage -- by my own admission I usually end the season around 53% in all sports. However, for me, it's all about units won. Bottom line is that I am a long term winner that is proven on these boards in multiple sports and anyone who has followed me will attest to that.

By day, I am a professional with two advanced degrees and I am lucky enough that my career provides both a high-paying and secure salary with quite a bit of time for handicapping during week. I am truly a blessed and lucky individual with a great wife that supports my sports investing and a child that I try to provide a better life through sports investing. I would never risk anything that I could not afford. However, thanks to my long term success, I am playing with house money many times over. My units in Baseball ended at $370 and my football units are currently $250. My NBA units will be $400 when the season starts as MLB and NBA are my two best sports. I am happy to discuss my strategies and process with you more late, but for now I have to get back to the games. Perhaps you should do some research before throwing around baseless accusations.

Good luck sir.

[lakerboy]

Anyone who bets that many games in one day is either 1) a broke college kid playing $10 a game; 2) someone who plays for fun because this strategy has cost him thousands of dollars and he's broke.

The more games you bet the more profit you can make.

[Love The Action]

The more games you bet the more profit you can make.

That guy is just another one of the many SBR trolls. Check his post history....it's clear what his motives are. I will ignore him moving forward.

Good luck on your plays LB

[Love The Action]

Big steam on the Bills/Skins over...I don't see it. Actually leaning toward the under at 46...at 47 it's very tempting.

[shocktopme]

.

Hey my friend.....I need some late game O/U's........You can do off record.............thanx LTA

[Trivial]

LTA. I jusy got home and can watch some NFL. Went opposite in the Jags plus all the plays I mentioned below, I booked on the road with my daughter.

Loving your Bills pick. I think do far every Bills game ever played in Toronto, Canada has gone under.

[Trivial]

LTA. You have no explaining to do to trolls. Screw em. We are all fathers who will never risk our families for this hobby. We bet what we an afford and are mostly professionals. I have a degree and a minor degree also. I respect most people and I really respect LTA, Red, 815, up, Donnie and others good people. You owe nobody any explanation LTA. Your work shows you are educated and clearly a professional worker. F*ck em.

[pacocn]

bol lta

[Love The Action]

Loving your Bills pick. I think do far every Bills game ever played in Toronto, Canada has gone under.

Not playing anythinig in that game just yet...leaning under though.

Your AZ and STL calls are looking good...I hope they hold up for you. It would certainly be a horrible beat if they didn't. GL

[r1kkie]

Hey LTA, whats your "stats" so far?

Good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

Wow, Brees throws a pick at his 20 yard line with a minute left to let STL score another TD and make it 17-0. We were looking golden had that one went into halftime 10-0.

Same thing with the Minny/Carolina game...14-7 with a minute left when Carolina fumbles in their own 30 yard line and Minny takes advantage to make it 14-14.

That sucks....

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, whats your "stats" so far?

Good luck tonight!

I don't know what you are asking?

[r1kkie]

I don't know what you are asking?

Oh sry, whats your winning/losing count? +/-?

[Love The Action]

Oh sry, whats your winning/losing count? +/-?

I update at the end of each week...check back a few pages for the end of last week beginning of this week. I'm at about my usual 53%, but only up a couple units on the seasons so far. Plenty of time left, but football is secondary to MLB and NBA for me. GL

[YouHave2outs]

bol today LTA

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a great spot to back the over with these two teams, especially at the key number of 41. There's not much value at 43 or 44, but I might play it at 42 as well. Most bets are on the under, yet we saw early money hit the over and hit it hard. I think is a great spot for both offenses to bounce back after horrible weeks where the Colts got destroyed by the Saints and the Titans were rolled by Houston. Both defenses are struggling at the moment which helps this play. However, I'm really backing the offenses in this spot rather than fading the defenses. Indy should get Painter and that passing game going today after suffering some bad breaks over and over against the Saints where multiple fumbles and ineffective pass protection killed them. Those are the sort of things that get corrected during the practice week and I expect the Colts to put up at least 17-20 points today. On the other side, this is the perfect week to Johnson going. He's healthy and ready to run against a much maligned Colts rush defense. Plus, I like Hassleback to move the ball consistently. I have this one set at 44 and I love covering the key number of 41 so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Cam Newton has exploded on the scene and I give him all the props in the world. However, he's still a rookie and running the option consistently will end up getting him killed. Even though the Vikings have a weakened secondary, their defensive line can still rush the passer, especially off the edge with Allen. On the other side, we have another rookie quarterback making his first start in Ponder who did get some action in mop up duty last week against the Packers and looked good. The Panthers defense has been porous, yet they are playing at home and Rivera is a defensive coach so I expect some interesting wrinkles for Ponder. This is a big number for the teams to go over as we are covering all the key numbers in the 40's and getting a push on 48. Although I expect this one to come close, I still see this one coming in under 47 and we have 48. I have it set at 45, so I'll take the field goal of value with the rookie quarterbacks behind center. This is one of the biggest over bets this week as far as number of bets where over 75% of all bets have come in on the over, yet the number has dropped to 46 in some spots. We're getting solid value on the under at 48 and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

This was a mistake by me in not jumping on the over at 50.5 or 51. This total opened at 52, jumped up to 52.5, then was bet down to the 50.5 or 51 range. I should have struck while the iron was hot but I was luke warm about this play at that time. When the total started to go up, I decided to jump on it at 52. It currently sits at 52.5, so at least we're a bit ahead the the game and I still expect to beat the closer. However, not covering the key number of 51 was a big error on my part. Nevertheless, I like the over here. Brady versus Roethelsburger in a battle of teams that the public think are about defense, but in actuality base their success on offense now. The Pats run an up-tempo offense that keeps defense on their heels and limits substitutions. The Pats are the number one team in the league in most advanced stats whether its ODVOA, OEPA, OWPA and especially passing efficiency numbers. On the other side, the Steelers are also offensive minded with those fast and athletic wide receiving corp. Expect the Steelers to press the Pats down the field early and often. I think we see quite a few "big" plays in this one leading to points. However, this one should be fast-paced with a lot of plays and possessions which should lead to scoring opportunities whether touchdown or FG related. Both teams have great offenses with mediocre defenses. The bet percentages slightly favor the over, but this is not a huge public play because most still think running and defense when thinking of these teams. However, both teams win with offense now and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 1x (Locked)

Here's a game where we got great value after early money bought the total down from 51 to 48. I respect early money, but I think they were setting up for a buyback on the over and that's what I see today. This total is already back up to 48.5 and I expect it to creep back up throughout the day. I know there are weather concerns in both Pittsburgh and Philly, however, all of the snow will be cleared from the field and that should not really come into play. I have this game set at 51, so the only reason I jumped on it was because of the early move. We do have two solid defenses and Philly coming off the bye. In addition, the Cowboys have a great defensive line with Ware. However, Vick's mobility and passing plan off the bye week should ready the Philly pass attack against the vaunted Cowboys D line rush. We all know about Andy Reid's post bye week success rate. I think we end up seeing a shootout and the Sunday night over trend continue. Both offenses are top ten in advanced offensive efficiency numbers and that bodes well for the over here. Rex Ryan has brought some toughness to the Cowboys defense, but the Eagles speed on the outside with their WR corp will be hard to stop when you factor in the mobility of Vick. Both teams should find success on the ground against two defenses relatively weak against the Run. I expect this one to hit the 50's and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

I risked jumping on this one too early and it's started to get back up in the 48 range after getting as low as 46.5. All the books are at 48.5 right now and it's doubtful that I beat the closer on this play. However, I told myself that if I could get 48 I should lock it in. That's what I got and that's what I did. 48 is a very important key total number and we're covering most of bigger key total numbers outside of 51. I don't see the Saints getting all the turnovers and other breaks they did last week in scoring 60+ against the Colts. Plus, with Feeley starting instead of Bradford, the Saints might have to eclipse the 48 points on their own. However, this is a bad spot for the Saints coming off that huge scoring game last week, I expect a bit of a regression on the road against a desperate Rams defense with a defensive minded head coach. Expect the Rams to play very conservatively and try to chew up clock to keep Brees off the field. There is no Ingram so the Saints are limited in the power back department down in the redzone. The Saints will definitely score, but I don't see the same type of explosion we saw last week and instead expect a bit of inconsistency from this usually razor sharp offense. We all saw what Jax did to the Ravens last week and anything is possible in the NFL where you usually have expect the unexpected. Together with the Carolina/Minny over, this is the most heavily bet over of the NFL week with over 75% of all bets on the over. I always like fading the public where it makes sense (it's not a huge factor in this day and age of sports investing, but it's never a bad idea to be on the opposite side of the public, especially where high profile teams like the Saints are involved). I have his one set at 46 and I think we see this one squeak just under the posted total. I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #6

Jaguars/Texans under (41) 1x (Locked)

We got burned last week on the Houston under because Tennessee could not stop anything the Texans were doing, but with Johnson out again I do not believe Houston will find the same offensive success two weeks in a row. I love the Jags defense and I think they come out fired up again to back up their dominate performance of last week. We are covering the most important key totals number in the NFL at 41 and I don't think the weak offense of the Jags led by Gabbert will be able to put high scoring numbers against this much improved Houston defense. I expect the Jags to concentrate on running the ball with Jones-Drew and high percentage passes that will allow Gabbert to get into a rhythm. They will take a few shots down the field with play action, but those will be few and far between. I actually expect a similar game plan from Houston without Johnson, which is why I am rolling with the under here. Again, we have most bets on the over in this game and early movement on the under. I like that combo and I'm backing the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Lions/Broncos under (44) 1x (Locked)

Late plays coming...good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a great spot to back the over with these two teams, especially at the key number of 41. There's not much value at 43 or 44, but I might play it at 42 as well. Most bets are on the under, yet we saw early money hit the over and hit it hard. I think is a great spot for both offenses to bounce back after horrible weeks where the Colts got destroyed by the Saints and the Titans were rolled by Houston. Both defenses are struggling at the moment which helps this play. However, I'm really backing the offenses in this spot rather than fading the defenses. Indy should get Painter and that passing game going today after suffering some bad breaks over and over against the Saints where multiple fumbles and ineffective pass protection killed them. Those are the sort of things that get corrected during the practice week and I expect the Colts to put up at least 17-20 points today. On the other side, this is the perfect week to Johnson going. He's healthy and ready to run against a much maligned Colts rush defense. Plus, I like Hassleback to move the ball consistently. I have this one set at 44 and I love covering the key number of 41 so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Cam Newton has exploded on the scene and I give him all the props in the world. However, he's still a rookie and running the option consistently will end up getting him killed. Even though the Vikings have a weakened secondary, their defensive line can still rush the passer, especially off the edge with Allen. On the other side, we have another rookie quarterback making his first start in Ponder who did get some action in mop up duty last week against the Packers and looked good. The Panthers defense has been porous, yet they are playing at home and Rivera is a defensive coach so I expect some interesting wrinkles for Ponder. This is a big number for the teams to go over as we are covering all the key numbers in the 40's and getting a push on 48. Although I expect this one to come close, I still see this one coming in under 47 and we have 48. I have it set at 45, so I'll take the field goal of value with the rookie quarterbacks behind center. This is one of the biggest over bets this week as far as number of bets where over 75% of all bets have come in on the over, yet the number has dropped to 46 in some spots. We're getting solid value on the under at 48 and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

This was a mistake by me in not jumping on the over at 50.5 or 51. This total opened at 52, jumped up to 52.5, then was bet down to the 50.5 or 51 range. I should have struck while the iron was hot but I was luke warm about this play at that time. When the total started to go up, I decided to jump on it at 52. It currently sits at 52.5, so at least we're a bit ahead the the game and I still expect to beat the closer. However, not covering the key number of 51 was a big error on my part. Nevertheless, I like the over here. Brady versus Roethelsburger in a battle of teams that the public think are about defense, but in actuality base their success on offense now. The Pats run an up-tempo offense that keeps defense on their heels and limits substitutions. The Pats are the number one team in the league in most advanced stats whether its ODVOA, OEPA, OWPA and especially passing efficiency numbers. On the other side, the Steelers are also offensive minded with those fast and athletic wide receiving corp. Expect the Steelers to press the Pats down the field early and often. I think we see quite a few "big" plays in this one leading to points. However, this one should be fast-paced with a lot of plays and possessions which should lead to scoring opportunities whether touchdown or FG related. Both teams have great offenses with mediocre defenses. The bet percentages slightly favor the over, but this is not a huge public play because most still think running and defense when thinking of these teams. However, both teams win with offense now and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 1x (Locked)

Here's a game where we got great value after early money bought the total down from 51 to 48. I respect early money, but I think they were setting up for a buyback on the over and that's what I see today. This total is already back up to 48.5 and I expect it to creep back up throughout the day. I know there are weather concerns in both Pittsburgh and Philly, however, all of the snow will be cleared from the field and that should not really come into play. I have this game set at 51, so the only reason I jumped on it was because of the early move. We do have two solid defenses and Philly coming off the bye. In addition, the Cowboys have a great defensive line with Ware. However, Vick's mobility and passing plan off the bye week should ready the Philly pass attack against the vaunted Cowboys D line rush. We all know about Andy Reid's post bye week success rate. I think we end up seeing a shootout and the Sunday night over trend continue. Both offenses are top ten in advanced offensive efficiency numbers and that bodes well for the over here. Rex Ryan has brought some toughness to the Cowboys defense, but the Eagles speed on the outside with their WR corp will be hard to stop when you factor in the mobility of Vick. Both teams should find success on the ground against two defenses relatively weak against the Run. I expect this one to hit the 50's and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

I risked jumping on this one too early and it's started to get back up in the 48 range after getting as low as 46.5. All the books are at 48.5 right now and it's doubtful that I beat the closer on this play. However, I told myself that if I could get 48 I should lock it in. That's what I got and that's what I did. 48 is a very important key total number and we're covering most of bigger key total numbers outside of 51. I don't see the Saints getting all the turnovers and other breaks they did last week in scoring 60+ against the Colts. Plus, with Feeley starting instead of Bradford, the Saints might have to eclipse the 48 points on their own. However, this is a bad spot for the Saints coming off that huge scoring game last week, I expect a bit of a regression on the road against a desperate Rams defense with a defensive minded head coach. Expect the Rams to play very conservatively and try to chew up clock to keep Brees off the field. There is no Ingram so the Saints are limited in the power back department down in the redzone. The Saints will definitely score, but I don't see the same type of explosion we saw last week and instead expect a bit of inconsistency from this usually razor sharp offense. We all saw what Jax did to the Ravens last week and anything is possible in the NFL where you usually have expect the unexpected. Together with the Carolina/Minny over, this is the most heavily bet over of the NFL week with over 75% of all bets on the over. I always like fading the public where it makes sense (it's not a huge factor in this day and age of sports investing, but it's never a bad idea to be on the opposite side of the public, especially where high profile teams like the Saints are involved). I have his one set at 46 and I think we see this one squeak just under the posted total. I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #6

Jaguars/Texans under (41) 1x (Locked)

We got burned last week on the Houston under because Tennessee could not stop anything the Texans were doing, but with Johnson out again I do not believe Houston will find the same offensive success two weeks in a row. I love the Jags defense and I think they come out fired up again to back up their dominate performance of last week. We are covering the most important key totals number in the NFL at 41 and I don't think the weak offense of the Jags led by Gabbert will be able to put high scoring numbers against this much improved Houston defense. I expect the Jags to concentrate on running the ball with Jones-Drew and high percentage passes that will allow Gabbert to get into a rhythm. They will take a few shots down the field with play action, but those will be few and far between. I actually expect a similar game plan from Houston without Johnson, which is why I am rolling with the under here. Again, we have most bets on the over in this game and early movement on the under. I like that combo and I'm backing the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Lions/Broncos under (44) 1x (Locked)

Late plays coming...good luck.

Play #8

Redskins/Bills under (47) 1x (Locked)

Wanted to see if it would go up, but I'll take the 47. Good luck.

[southpaw74]

Good luck LTA. Just got lucky to hit the Vikings under with that missed field goal let's hit lions under this afternoon! Thanks for the help

[alamo]

Panthers just missed a chip kick FG which wouldve screwed the under

[YouHave2outs]

finally a nice beat for you LTA! nice one on that under in panthers/vikings

[Love The Action]

I want to fuking puke. I'm just about done with all this football shit.

Yeah, we got lucky with the Minny under. But fuking Indy had two chances at Tennessee's four yard line with under five minute left and didn't come away with any points. I mean, they went for it twice on fourth down from the four and couldn't score!

Then, fuking New Orleans scores a meaningless touchdown with 2 seconds left to fuk that under after Brees gave up a pick 6 to STL on the drive before that. We had 17 point cushion in that game to start the fourth quarter! That game should have not even come close to the over if not for a blocked punt td and a pick 6. This is unreal.

This shit's not worth my time or money. You have shit capped perfectly only to lose in bullshit ways. I would have gladly traded the missed field goal in Minny for just one easy Indy td which would have cashed the over in that game and all the bullshit plays that happened in the New Orleans game to screw me there.

I am sick to my stomach. We should have had a 3-1 start to the day and instead we lose juice at 2-2. I don't know what to fuking say right now. I am stunned.

[Love The Action]

Panthers just missed a chip kick FG which wouldve screwed the under

Yeah, we get one good break only to be return by two bad breaks. We're still owed some vengeance.

How does Indy not score twice from inside the 5 yard line on two different occassions? Plus, they went for it on fourth down on both drives and still couldn't score.

Plus, did you happen to see what happened in the last five minutes of the NO game. First, Brees throws a pick 6 at the 3 minute mark and then on the kickoff they end up driving 80 yards to score a meaningless td with 2 seconds left.

No matter what we are cursed...or so it seems.

[Love The Action]

finally a nice beat for you LTA! nice one on that under in panthers/vikings

One good one and we get fuked by two other breaks which go against us. Unreal. It just never evens out for me...

[upscope]

Dont worry 2 minutes later Drew Brees throws a pick 6 w/ 2:30 min to play & then proceeds to take the kickoff & march his team right to the end zone w/ a TD w/ 6 seconds to play to fukk us on that total.....I mean seriously that total no chance of going over w/ 2:30 to play but it found a way too thanx to a int returned for TD & then a prevent induced backdoor TD.....

[Trivial]

That missed fg in Carolina helped a lot. I am 4-4 today and missed these last 2. :-(

[Love The Action]

I am sick to my fuking stomach over that NO game. They scored with 10 SECONDS LEFT to fuk the under. The score was 24-7 with 3 MINUTES LEFT. They scored 14 points from a pick 6 and bullshit td with 10 seconds left to fuk us. Oh my god I am so pissed right now


I seriously want to throw something...I will calm down and all will be normal again but I seriously don't understand how these things keep happening to me.

[Love The Action]

Dont worry 2 minutes later Drew Brees throws a pick 6 w/ 2:30 min to play & then proceeds to take the kickoff & march his team right to the end zone w/ a TD w/ 6 seconds to play to fukk us on that total.....I mean seriously that total no chance of going over w/ 2:30 to play but it found a way too thanx to a int returned for TD & then a prevent induced backdoor TD.....

The fuking score was 24-7 with 2:30 left...you can't make this fuking shit up. I don't get it.

Don't fuking forget about Indy...they were at Tennessee's 4 yard line with four chances to score on two separate drives with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter and couldn't score shit. This is seriously unheard of. I don't get it.

[Trivial]

The NO game was indeed unreal and I am stunned and pissed like LTA. Today, I started to use a new app on my iPhone called BetTracker. It said that under at 3 mins left had a 99% chance of winning. F*ck indeed. LTA. I do not know what to say. I also had a 3% chance of the Minnt under. Pissed I missed your last 2 plays. May go second half.

[YouHave2outs]

fack, didn't realize you had those other plays. didn't mean to tilt you or anything. i'm rootin for a big upswing for you.