LTA's NFL PLays

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Phillys D has flat out smoked the Cowboys. Lets hope we get something like what happened last week in New Orleans with Philly scoring 40+

That's only fair, right? Let's see those back to back Romo pick 6's that burned our under a few weeks ago when the boys played the lions. The gambling gods owe us big time....

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Rex is coach of my team and all but....I have a hard time buying Rob preaching discipline and sacrifice to his D with a huge gut while he is in his 40's......hmmmm....that don't play for me.

I think that's a hell of a subliminal point, Red.

**Redscot** · 10-30-11, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Actually, I've found the opposite to be true in the two-plus years I've played RLM. It doesn't work nearly as much in hockey and baseball as it does with football and basketball. Is it fool-proof? Of course not. But if you're asking me if it hits over 52.5%, I'd say it does without question.

The way I look at it, books and guys with big money typically know more than me, the casual bettor -- so there's typically a reason the line moves the way it does when the public sees otherwise. Does that mean I blindly play line movement and don't cap? Of course not, but I think RLM is a valuable tool that can crank out profits if you use it wisely and as part of your betting playbook.

This is why these threads are so useful. Will be paying closer attention to RLM moving forward, and please point it out in this thread, I am sure LTA won't mind.

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

This is why these threads are so useful. Will be paying closer attention to RLM moving forward, and please point it out in this thread, I am sure LTA won't mind.

That, plus take every +5.5 home dog under the sun Red. I'm not kidding. ML and spread. If you were to blindly make one bet the rest of your life without ever capping, that'd be it.

I just don't want to step on LTA's toes -- he's a much different capper than I am when it comes to things like that. He has a system and sticks to it. I'm not against abandoning ship on a play that I capped if the line movement is telling me otherwise.

**Redscot** · 10-30-11, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I think that's a hell of a subliminal point, Red.

Yeah, well....makes me feel like I am putting my Psych degree towards something at least

. Probably doesn't add up to a hill of beans, but it does strike me....

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Actually, I've found the opposite to be true in the two-plus years I've played RLM. It doesn't work nearly as much in hockey and baseball as it does with football and basketball. Is it fool-proof? Of course not. But if you're asking me if it hits over 52.5%, I'd say it does without question.

The way I look at it, books and guys with big money typically know more than me, the casual bettor -- so there's typically a reason the line moves the way it does when the public sees otherwise. Does that mean I blindly play line movement and don't cap? Of course not, but I think RLM is a valuable tool that can crank out profits if you use it wisely and as part of your betting playbook.

I'm pretty sure RLM has been proven to hit around 50% over a large sample (10,000 plays). I will look for the citation and forward it to you. To a point, a lot depends on your definition of RLM too. Most define it as 60% or more on one side and the line moving 1 point or more in the opposite with at least 10,000-30,000 of betting volume. That's pretty much what I'm talking about and I know I read it only hits at 50% long term. However, that's just blindly betting RLM. I don't think that's what you are referring to is it? I think you only bet RLM selectively, correct? For example if there are 20 RLM plays, you only bet the ones you like not all 20...correct?

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

That, plus take every +5.5 home dog under the sun Red. I'm not kidding. ML and spread. If you were to blindly make one bet the rest of your life without ever capping, that'd be it.

I just don't want to step on LTA's toes -- he's a much different capper than I am when it comes to things like that. He has a system and sticks to it. I'm not against abandoning ship on a play that I capped if the line movement is telling me otherwise.

You're not stepping on my toes. I highly encourage you or anyone else to post plays and their reasons for those plays. Especially if it is a different "style" than mine or someone else's. That's how we learn from each other

If you want to post some RLM plays, by all means go for it

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 09:50 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I'm pretty sure RLM has been proven to hit around 50% over a large sample (10,000 plays). I will look for the citation and forward it to you. To a point, a lot depends on your definition of RLM too. Most define it as 60% or more on one side and the line moving 1 point or more in the opposite with at least 10,000-30,000 of betting volume. That's pretty much what I'm talking about and I know I read it only hits at 50% long term. However, that's just blindly betting RLM. I don't think that's what you are referring to is it? I think you only bet RLM selectively, correct? For example if there are 20 RLM plays, you only bet the ones you like not all 20...correct?

Yeah, I guess you'd define what I do as "selective" RLM -- in other words, RLM that at least somewhat fits with a play that had already caught my eye.

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

You're not stepping on my toes. I highly encourage you or anyone else to post plays and their reasons for those plays. Especially if it is a different "style" than mine or someone else's. That's how we learn from each other

If you want to post some RLM plays, by all means go for it

Well I didn't want to post my under in this game against your play -- didn't want to show you up in your own thread. I had a similar total to yours, but the line movement indicated to me that I must have been a few ticks off. We'll see what happens -- not like it's cashed yet.

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 09:52 PM

We need 2 touchdowns to push with 13:20 left in the 4th quarter and 2 td's with a fg to cash. That would make me feel like some of these bad beats are starting to even out.

**Redscot** · 10-30-11, 09:53 PM

Holding out hope here we get some big plays, if not, happy for NC's gain. I don't have iphone or any such gadget

so when I leave computer that is all she wrote.....night fellas. GL

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 09:56 PM

Well that was quick.

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Well I didn't want to post my under in this game against your play -- didn't want to show you up in your own thread. I had a similar total to yours, but the line movement indicated to me that I must have been a few ticks off. We'll see what happens -- not like it's cashed yet.

You're not showing me up by posting the opposite of me. You know I'm not like that. I don't care about stuff like that. I'm not here for any SBR "glory." I just want to help and learn.

As long as someone posts a play and provides solid reasoning, then that's all the matters. If I post a play and someone likes the opposite, I actually want to know that because it might show me that I'm missing something that I didn't look at. My goal on SBR is to help others and learn as much as possible from others.

I've only been doing this full time for 1.5 years and I know that I have a lot to learn. I highly encourage you and everyone to post plays and reasoning for those plays so we can learn from each other. Especially if it's the opposite of my play. That's the only way we learn

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Holding out hope here we get some big plays, if not, happy for NC's gain. I don't have iphone or any such gadget

so when I leave computer that is all she wrote.....night fellas. GL

Trust me, when it comes to bad beats on totals, I invented the topic.

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Holding out hope here we get some big plays, if not, happy for NC's gain. I don't have iphone or any such gadget

so when I leave computer that is all she wrote.....night fellas. GL

Take care Red.

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Holding out hope here we get some big plays, if not, happy for NC's gain. I don't have iphone or any such gadget

so when I leave computer that is all she wrote.....night fellas. GL

Night bud...hopefully you wake up with a little more money in your account

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Trust me, when it comes to bad beats on totals, I invented the topic.

Did you have the New Orleans under today too?

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Did you have the New Orleans under today too?

Honestly, I've steered away from totals for the most part. Played a ton of unders the first two weeks and lost a lot so I just threw in the towel.

Did have the DAL/DET 2H under this afternoon; two defensive touchdowns later....

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:05 PM

Saints look good next week in a nice revenge and bounceback spot if you can get them at -7....

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 10:06 PM

What do you think about MNF LTA?

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What do you think about MNF LTA?

I see some value in San Diego to be honest. I have them set at -4.5 based on the stats. With that said, KC is finally playing much like they did last year and arrowhead is not an easy place to play. Not sure quite yet on that one. Might stick with the total but I need to do some work on that. And you?

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:14 PM

Wow, that was pass interference in the corner of the end zone. WTF!

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:14 PM

That sucks. Story of my fuking day. Four plays from the five yard line, a pass interference penalty not called and no fuking score.

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:16 PM

OMG how did Dallas not score there

**No coincidences** · 10-30-11, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I see some value in San Diego to be honest. I have them set at -4.5 based on the stats. With that said, KC is finally playing much like they did last year and arrowhead is not an easy place to play. Not sure quite yet on that one. Might stick with the total but I need to do some work on that. And you?

I lean SD, which I typically don't like. Usually all over MNF home dogs.

**Trivial** · 10-30-11, 10:17 PM

Dallas are losers. Thry needed to score from the Phil 2. We need a pick 6 now.

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:18 PM

And now they couldn't stop Philly on third down and this one is over absent an 80 yard run. Unreal.

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by Trivial

Dallas are losers. Thry needed to score from the Phil 2. We need a pick 6 now.

We need a miracle Triv and judging by our luck today and over the last few weeks, I'm not holding my breath.

**YOUNGBUCK** · 10-30-11, 10:22 PM

This is crazy im feelin for u LTA

**Trivial** · 10-30-11, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

We need a miracle Triv and judging by our luck today and over the last few weeks, I'm not holding my breath.

Push now?

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:30 PM

Fuking cowboys gave up...didn't even use their timeouts. Fuking losers. But New Orleans did everything they could to score with 2 seconds left to fuk us.

So explain that to me? One team fuks our under by doing everything possible to score a meaningless touchdown, and the other doesn't use any of it's 3 timeouts with 1:40 left to score a TD. Unfukingreal....

**alamo** · 10-30-11, 10:48 PM

My reasoning is that Drew Brees is an all round better QB. He will never give up and fights to the death. On the other hand you have Tony Homo. This guy is the complete opposite. He is nothing but a quitter. It was obvious to me that he just wanted to get out of there tonight and go home after the 3rd Q. In my opinion I actually think its time for the Cowboys to look for a new QB as he is completely overrated.

**Love The Action** · 10-30-11, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by alamo

My reasoning is that Drew Brees is an all round better QB. He will never give up and fights to the death. On the other hand you have Tony Homo. This guy is the complete opposite. He is nothing but a quitter. It was obvious to me that he just wanted to get out of there tonight and go home after the 3rd Q. In my opinion I actually think its time for the Cowboys to look for a new QB as he is completely overrated.

Perhaps...but it's the coaches job to call timeouts. If they wanted to score or gave a crap Garrett would have used his timeouts with 1:40 left. Instead, he didn't use any and kept ALL 3 in his pocket. Quitter...

On that note, I'm out...time for some shutout and forget about today's BS losses.

**alamo** · 10-30-11, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Perhaps...but it's the coaches job to call timeouts. If they wanted to score or gave a crap Garrett would have used his timeouts with 1:40 left. Instead, he didn't use any and kept ALL 3 in his pocket. Quitter... On that note, I'm out...time for some shutout and forget about today's BS losses.

True that. Jerry Jones is going to make sure each and everyone of both coaches and players get their asses kicked this week. Cowboys to beat the Hawks next week in a big bounce back game. Will be going heavy on it.

**Redscot** · 10-31-11, 08:17 AM

What an embarrassing effort by Dallas. That was pathetic, truly. Reid remains the bye week master. Vick is a fun QB to watch, wow, to think he didn't study the game before his comeback it's scary. End of the day he has been a winner whenever he gets on the field.

Well, we're holding tight so far in football LTA, I think we start edging the profit up bit by bit this second half and reach your goal. Thanks for putting in the work as usual.