LTA's NFL PLays

[Dexter]

Saints look good next week in a nice revenge and bounceback spot if you can get them at -7....

one of my systems is on the bucs, and i played them at +9 as i think this line should be about 7. bucs play very well in new orleans.

the revenge game that i have had circled on my calendar for a while is pitt. not only did they lose to balt, they were embarassed in week 1.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey guys i have kc as a virtual pick, so i will take the fg at arrowhead. My total was right on so passing there. Good luck! What you all see!

[Upyourgame]

Hey Gents,
Im pretty new to the site (my first post!) as well as to capping sports properly. I am having some small success but need to take it to the next level. I was wondering where you get your advanced stats from? and any tips on how to start my own model for capping. Any help would be really appreciated
Looking forward to sharing my leans and learning from the vets

[ram1502]

the revenge game that i have had circled on my calendar for a while is pitt. not only did they lose to balt, they were embarassed in week 1.

This^^^^^^

[upscope]

Hey Gents,
Im pretty new to the site (my first post!) as well as to capping sports properly. I am having some small success but need to take it to the next level. I was wondering where you get your advanced stats from? and any tips on how to start my own model for capping. Any help would be really appreciated
Looking forward to sharing my leans and learning from the vets

Pretty sure LTA uses this site pretty regularly for baseball.....amongst others:

http://www.fangraphs.com/

You can Google 'advanced stats' & be led in the right direction....

[upscope]

Hey LTA.

According to this article RLM has been a solid winner in every sport hitting well over 52.5%. The article appears to be out dated but it's a pretty interesting & informative read:

http://www.articledashboard.com/Article/Using-Reverse-Line-Movement-to-Win/1144909

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x (Locked)


Jumping on some early numbers that I find favorable based on some work I did last night and this morning. Writeups later in the week. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Hey LTA.

According to this article RLM has been a solid winner in every sport hitting well over 52.5%. The article appears to be out dated but it's a pretty interesting & informative read:

http://www.articledashboard.com/Arti...to-Win/1144909

Good shiznit Up, thanks for sharing that. Anyone have a non-paid site that they would recommend to track % of where the money is in any given game?

[Redscot]

I will say this forever and probably should just start at thread about it: if you just stuck to taking home dogs of a single possession or less (6.5 on down) and road dogs of 2.5 or less, I think you'd absolutely murder football. I really do.

So, you on the Chiefs tonight then? I believe they also have some slight RLM in their favor as well.

Also, since your are our resident line movement guru, let me ask you a question or 2. Bare with me, as line reading et al. has never been a big part of my betting

At what point in the week would you say the RLM becomes relevant? For instance, for next week:

- Atlanta opened at -9 yet (according to SBR *) 70% of the money is on them and the line dropped to -7.

- San Fran 61% and line dropped from -4 1/2 to -3.

Enlighten me bro, I am very interested in learning more about this aspect of capping.

* Do you have a reliable source you use to track where the % of money is?

[815Sox]

Tonights game is a tough one to figure out, SD is obviously the better team. But KC has been playing better as of late and I could see them making this close. Tempting to take the homedog. I finally opened my "square" book account, and it has KC @ +3.5 -115. Might just sit this one out though. I actually did well for once with football yesterday.

Alright, off to my volunteer gig, maybe I will ask some of my students for their opinion.

[ManBearPig]

Good shiznit Up, thanks for sharing that. Anyone have a non-paid site that they would recommend to track % of where the money is in any given game?

This one seems pretty decent from PreGame

[Redscot]

This one seems pretty decent from PreGame

Thanks bro

[Love The Action]

* Do you have a reliable source you use to track where the % of money is?

This does not exist and is one of the problems with rlm. No one knows how much money comes in on certain teams- all we know are the percentage of total bets made. The point of following rlm is trying to tail smart aka sharp money. However, the books adjust lines based on the amount of money not how many bets are made. The problem with rlm is that you dont know who is the person responsible for making the $20k bet that moved the line. It could be billy walters making the public fade max wager, in which case you want to tail. Alternatively, it could be floyd mayweather or any other coinflipper with deep pockets, in which case you would not want to tail. There is no way to tell who is making the public fading max wager which moved the line or how much money is on each side.

I've followed rlm for years and agree it can be a useful tool on a case by case basis and would be happy to answer your questions and discuss this issue more when I get home from work. However, I would strongly question the stats used in the article from upscope (btw, big thanks to upscpoe for providing that article and spurring conversation - you're quickly becoming a great participant of the thread). First, the author of the article is a guy named "Manny G" and there are no citations as to where that data was derived or by whom except for the blatant advertising references to prosportsonline.net. Sorry, but anyone can write an article like that and use phony numbers if you don't cite to a database where I can check the authenticity of the data. That article sounded more like the author was a "shill" for prospotsonline than an independent party. I mean, come on, if rlm was hitting at 59% in the nfl nocoin and everyone else who uses it would be rich.

Consequently, I would definitely question both the efficacy and accuracy of that article. I have to run now, but look forward to this discussion later. Thanks everyone.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey Gents,
Im pretty new to the site (my first post!) as well as to capping sports properly. I am having some small success but need to take it to the next level. I was wondering where you get your advanced stats from? and any tips on how to start my own model for capping. Any help would be really appreciated
Looking forward to sharing my leans and learning from the vets

Football outsiders

[Trampas]

True that. Jerry Jones is going to make sure each and everyone of both coaches and players get their asses kicked this week. Cowboys to beat the Hawks next week in a big bounce back game. Will be going heavy on it.

spread is 12

[Love The Action]

This one seems pretty decent from PreGame

That is the best of all the free services as it provides info from multiple books and I find the data consistent, albeit a bit stale, when compared to SI.

[Redscot]

That is the best of all the free services as it provides info from multiple books and I find the data consistent, albeit a bit stale, when compared to SI.

Stale indeed. Have been checking it out for 2 hours now refreshing it regularly and haven't seen anything shift .

Like the under tonight in a rockin' Arrowhead, but may just tease the under with the Chiefs. Thoughts .......?

[Love The Action]

Football outsiders

Also www.advancednflstats.com

[Love The Action]

Stale indeed. Have been checking it out for 2 hours now refreshing it regularly and haven't seen anything shift .

Like the under tonight in a rockin' Arrowhead, but may just tease the under with the Chiefs. Thoughts .......?

Chargers and under for me. This weekend has been a heartbreaker though, so we'll see. GL

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a great spot to back the over with these two teams, especially at the key number of 41. There's not much value at 43 or 44, but I might play it at 42 as well. Most bets are on the under, yet we saw early money hit the over and hit it hard. I think is a great spot for both offenses to bounce back after horrible weeks where the Colts got destroyed by the Saints and the Titans were rolled by Houston. Both defenses are struggling at the moment which helps this play. However, I'm really backing the offenses in this spot rather than fading the defenses. Indy should get Painter and that passing game going today after suffering some bad breaks over and over against the Saints where multiple fumbles and ineffective pass protection killed them. Those are the sort of things that get corrected during the practice week and I expect the Colts to put up at least 17-20 points today. On the other side, this is the perfect week to Johnson going. He's healthy and ready to run against a much maligned Colts rush defense. Plus, I like Hassleback to move the ball consistently. I have this one set at 44 and I love covering the key number of 41 so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Cam Newton has exploded on the scene and I give him all the props in the world. However, he's still a rookie and running the option consistently will end up getting him killed. Even though the Vikings have a weakened secondary, their defensive line can still rush the passer, especially off the edge with Allen. On the other side, we have another rookie quarterback making his first start in Ponder who did get some action in mop up duty last week against the Packers and looked good. The Panthers defense has been porous, yet they are playing at home and Rivera is a defensive coach so I expect some interesting wrinkles for Ponder. This is a big number for the teams to go over as we are covering all the key numbers in the 40's and getting a push on 48. Although I expect this one to come close, I still see this one coming in under 47 and we have 48. I have it set at 45, so I'll take the field goal of value with the rookie quarterbacks behind center. This is one of the biggest over bets this week as far as number of bets where over 75% of all bets have come in on the over, yet the number has dropped to 46 in some spots. We're getting solid value on the under at 48 and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

This was a mistake by me in not jumping on the over at 50.5 or 51. This total opened at 52, jumped up to 52.5, then was bet down to the 50.5 or 51 range. I should have struck while the iron was hot but I was luke warm about this play at that time. When the total started to go up, I decided to jump on it at 52. It currently sits at 52.5, so at least we're a bit ahead the the game and I still expect to beat the closer. However, not covering the key number of 51 was a big error on my part. Nevertheless, I like the over here. Brady versus Roethelsburger in a battle of teams that the public think are about defense, but in actuality base their success on offense now. The Pats run an up-tempo offense that keeps defense on their heels and limits substitutions. The Pats are the number one team in the league in most advanced stats whether its ODVOA, OEPA, OWPA and especially passing efficiency numbers. On the other side, the Steelers are also offensive minded with those fast and athletic wide receiving corp. Expect the Steelers to press the Pats down the field early and often. I think we see quite a few "big" plays in this one leading to points. However, this one should be fast-paced with a lot of plays and possessions which should lead to scoring opportunities whether touchdown or FG related. Both teams have great offenses with mediocre defenses. The bet percentages slightly favor the over, but this is not a huge public play because most still think running and defense when thinking of these teams. However, both teams win with offense now and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 2x (Locked)

Here's a game where we got great value after early money bought the total down from 51 to 48. I respect early money, but I think they were setting up for a buyback on the over and that's what I see today. This total is already back up to 48.5 and I expect it to creep back up throughout the day. I know there are weather concerns in both Pittsburgh and Philly, however, all of the snow will be cleared from the field and that should not really come into play. I have this game set at 51, so the only reason I jumped on it was because of the early move. We do have two solid defenses and Philly coming off the bye. In addition, the Cowboys have a great defensive line with Ware. However, Vick's mobility and passing plan off the bye week should ready the Philly pass attack against the vaunted Cowboys D line rush. We all know about Andy Reid's post bye week success rate. I think we end up seeing a shootout and the Sunday night over trend continue. Both offenses are top ten in advanced offensive efficiency numbers and that bodes well for the over here. Rex Ryan has brought some toughness to the Cowboys defense, but the Eagles speed on the outside with their WR corp will be hard to stop when you factor in the mobility of Vick. Both teams should find success on the ground against two defenses relatively weak against the Run. I expect this one to hit the 50's and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

I risked jumping on this one too early and it's started to get back up in the 48 range after getting as low as 46.5. All the books are at 48.5 right now and it's doubtful that I beat the closer on this play. However, I told myself that if I could get 48 I should lock it in. That's what I got and that's what I did. 48 is a very important key total number and we're covering most of bigger key total numbers outside of 51. I don't see the Saints getting all the turnovers and other breaks they did last week in scoring 60+ against the Colts. Plus, with Feeley starting instead of Bradford, the Saints might have to eclipse the 48 points on their own. However, this is a bad spot for the Saints coming off that huge scoring game last week, I expect a bit of a regression on the road against a desperate Rams defense with a defensive minded head coach. Expect the Rams to play very conservatively and try to chew up clock to keep Brees off the field. There is no Ingram so the Saints are limited in the power back department down in the redzone. The Saints will definitely score, but I don't see the same type of explosion we saw last week and instead expect a bit of inconsistency from this usually razor sharp offense. We all saw what Jax did to the Ravens last week and anything is possible in the NFL where you usually have expect the unexpected. Together with the Carolina/Minny over, this is the most heavily bet over of the NFL week with over 75% of all bets on the over. I always like fading the public where it makes sense (it's not a huge factor in this day and age of sports investing, but it's never a bad idea to be on the opposite side of the public, especially where high profile teams like the Saints are involved). I have his one set at 46 and I think we see this one squeak just under the posted total. I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #6

Jaguars/Texans under (41) 1x (Locked)

We got burned last week on the Houston under because Tennessee could not stop anything the Texans were doing, but with Johnson out again I do not believe Houston will find the same offensive success two weeks in a row. I love the Jags defense and I think they come out fired up again to back up their dominate performance of last week. We are covering the most important key totals number in the NFL at 41 and I don't think the weak offense of the Jags led by Gabbert will be able to put high scoring numbers against this much improved Houston defense. I expect the Jags to concentrate on running the ball with Jones-Drew and high percentage passes that will allow Gabbert to get into a rhythm. They will take a few shots down the field with play action, but those will be few and far between. I actually expect a similar game plan from Houston without Johnson, which is why I am rolling with the under here. Again, we have most bets on the over in this game and early movement on the under. I like that combo and I'm backing the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Lions/Broncos under (44) 1x (Locked)

Late plays coming...good luck.

Play #8

Redskins/Bills under (47) 1x (Locked)

Wanted to see if it would go up, but I'll take the 47. Good luck.

Play #9

Chargers/Chiefs under (45) 1x (Locked)

Try to get 45 which is available at the square books like bodog, sia, etc. I just dont see either team exploding for points tonight. Both teams have some offensive injury issues and both teams have improving defenses. I'm running late so no time for an in-depth writeup, but I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[georgekobe8]

how do you feel about taking the chiefs at +9 in a teaser and under 51

[Love The Action]

how do you feel about taking the chiefs at +9 in a teaser and under 51

I lean slightly to the chargers on the side, but you can't argue with a +9 home dog on the rise....i think Red is doing this tease as well which should give you little confidence as well. Good luck!

[Redscot]

I lean slightly to the chargers on the side, but you can't argue with a +9 home dog on the rise....i think Red is doing this tease as well which should give you little confidence as well. Good luck!

I am on that tease in fact. Honestly I put S.D. as a 4 to 5 pt favorites tonight and considered teasing them up to +3....dunno though...think we see K.C. trying to make this one ugly and 9 pts. is a lot at home in hopefully a low scoring affair....I bought a pt on this one and have it +10 1/2 under 52 at -130. I also played a 1/2 unit on the under and a 1/4 unit parlaying under/KC ML to boot.....yeah, I got a ways to go discipline wise , really need to either get into hockey or NBA to start.

GL fellas don't know how long I will be around tonight, tired as shit and sipping some rum....wife prolly have to peel me off the couch in an hour or so .

[815Sox]

I teased Chiefs +9.5 under 51. I am thinking we see some turnovers tonight and a close game.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 8

Play #1

Colts/Titans over (41) 1x (Locked)

I think this is a great spot to back the over with these two teams, especially at the key number of 41. There's not much value at 43 or 44, but I might play it at 42 as well. Most bets are on the under, yet we saw early money hit the over and hit it hard. I think is a great spot for both offenses to bounce back after horrible weeks where the Colts got destroyed by the Saints and the Titans were rolled by Houston. Both defenses are struggling at the moment which helps this play. However, I'm really backing the offenses in this spot rather than fading the defenses. Indy should get Painter and that passing game going today after suffering some bad breaks over and over against the Saints where multiple fumbles and ineffective pass protection killed them. Those are the sort of things that get corrected during the practice week and I expect the Colts to put up at least 17-20 points today. On the other side, this is the perfect week to Johnson going. He's healthy and ready to run against a much maligned Colts rush defense. Plus, I like Hassleback to move the ball consistently. I have this one set at 44 and I love covering the key number of 41 so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Vikings/Panthers under (48) 1x (Locked)

Cam Newton has exploded on the scene and I give him all the props in the world. However, he's still a rookie and running the option consistently will end up getting him killed. Even though the Vikings have a weakened secondary, their defensive line can still rush the passer, especially off the edge with Allen. On the other side, we have another rookie quarterback making his first start in Ponder who did get some action in mop up duty last week against the Packers and looked good. The Panthers defense has been porous, yet they are playing at home and Rivera is a defensive coach so I expect some interesting wrinkles for Ponder. This is a big number for the teams to go over as we are covering all the key numbers in the 40's and getting a push on 48. Although I expect this one to come close, I still see this one coming in under 47 and we have 48. I have it set at 45, so I'll take the field goal of value with the rookie quarterbacks behind center. This is one of the biggest over bets this week as far as number of bets where over 75% of all bets have come in on the over, yet the number has dropped to 46 in some spots. We're getting solid value on the under at 48 and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Steelers over (52) 1x (Locked)

This was a mistake by me in not jumping on the over at 50.5 or 51. This total opened at 52, jumped up to 52.5, then was bet down to the 50.5 or 51 range. I should have struck while the iron was hot but I was luke warm about this play at that time. When the total started to go up, I decided to jump on it at 52. It currently sits at 52.5, so at least we're a bit ahead the the game and I still expect to beat the closer. However, not covering the key number of 51 was a big error on my part. Nevertheless, I like the over here. Brady versus Roethelsburger in a battle of teams that the public think are about defense, but in actuality base their success on offense now. The Pats run an up-tempo offense that keeps defense on their heels and limits substitutions. The Pats are the number one team in the league in most advanced stats whether its ODVOA, OEPA, OWPA and especially passing efficiency numbers. On the other side, the Steelers are also offensive minded with those fast and athletic wide receiving corp. Expect the Steelers to press the Pats down the field early and often. I think we see quite a few "big" plays in this one leading to points. However, this one should be fast-paced with a lot of plays and possessions which should lead to scoring opportunities whether touchdown or FG related. Both teams have great offenses with mediocre defenses. The bet percentages slightly favor the over, but this is not a huge public play because most still think running and defense when thinking of these teams. However, both teams win with offense now and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #4

Cowboys/Eagles over (48) 2x (Locked)

Here's a game where we got great value after early money bought the total down from 51 to 48. I respect early money, but I think they were setting up for a buyback on the over and that's what I see today. This total is already back up to 48.5 and I expect it to creep back up throughout the day. I know there are weather concerns in both Pittsburgh and Philly, however, all of the snow will be cleared from the field and that should not really come into play. I have this game set at 51, so the only reason I jumped on it was because of the early move. We do have two solid defenses and Philly coming off the bye. In addition, the Cowboys have a great defensive line with Ware. However, Vick's mobility and passing plan off the bye week should ready the Philly pass attack against the vaunted Cowboys D line rush. We all know about Andy Reid's post bye week success rate. I think we end up seeing a shootout and the Sunday night over trend continue. Both offenses are top ten in advanced offensive efficiency numbers and that bodes well for the over here. Rex Ryan has brought some toughness to the Cowboys defense, but the Eagles speed on the outside with their WR corp will be hard to stop when you factor in the mobility of Vick. Both teams should find success on the ground against two defenses relatively weak against the Run. I expect this one to hit the 50's and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Saints/Rams under (48) 1x (Locked)

I risked jumping on this one too early and it's started to get back up in the 48 range after getting as low as 46.5. All the books are at 48.5 right now and it's doubtful that I beat the closer on this play. However, I told myself that if I could get 48 I should lock it in. That's what I got and that's what I did. 48 is a very important key total number and we're covering most of bigger key total numbers outside of 51. I don't see the Saints getting all the turnovers and other breaks they did last week in scoring 60+ against the Colts. Plus, with Feeley starting instead of Bradford, the Saints might have to eclipse the 48 points on their own. However, this is a bad spot for the Saints coming off that huge scoring game last week, I expect a bit of a regression on the road against a desperate Rams defense with a defensive minded head coach. Expect the Rams to play very conservatively and try to chew up clock to keep Brees off the field. There is no Ingram so the Saints are limited in the power back department down in the redzone. The Saints will definitely score, but I don't see the same type of explosion we saw last week and instead expect a bit of inconsistency from this usually razor sharp offense. We all saw what Jax did to the Ravens last week and anything is possible in the NFL where you usually have expect the unexpected. Together with the Carolina/Minny over, this is the most heavily bet over of the NFL week with over 75% of all bets on the over. I always like fading the public where it makes sense (it's not a huge factor in this day and age of sports investing, but it's never a bad idea to be on the opposite side of the public, especially where high profile teams like the Saints are involved). I have his one set at 46 and I think we see this one squeak just under the posted total. I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

Play #6

Jaguars/Texans under (41) 1x (Locked)

We got burned last week on the Houston under because Tennessee could not stop anything the Texans were doing, but with Johnson out again I do not believe Houston will find the same offensive success two weeks in a row. I love the Jags defense and I think they come out fired up again to back up their dominate performance of last week. We are covering the most important key totals number in the NFL at 41 and I don't think the weak offense of the Jags led by Gabbert will be able to put high scoring numbers against this much improved Houston defense. I expect the Jags to concentrate on running the ball with Jones-Drew and high percentage passes that will allow Gabbert to get into a rhythm. They will take a few shots down the field with play action, but those will be few and far between. I actually expect a similar game plan from Houston without Johnson, which is why I am rolling with the under here. Again, we have most bets on the over in this game and early movement on the under. I like that combo and I'm backing the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Lions/Broncos under (44) 1x (Locked)

Late plays coming...good luck.

Play #8

Redskins/Bills under (47) 1x (Locked)

Wanted to see if it would go up, but I'll take the 47. Good luck.

Play #9

Chargers/Chiefs under (45) 1x (Locked)

Try to get 45 which is available at the square books like bodog, sia, etc. I just dont see either team exploding for points tonight. Both teams have some offensive injury issues and both teams have improving defenses. I'm running late so no time for an in-depth writeup, but I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Teaser

Chiefs (+9)/under (51) 1.1x to win 1x

The more I looked into this play, the more I liked the home dog. However, after all the +4 and +3.5 lines were scooped up earlier in the week by sharp money, I didn't see too much value at the +3. I already love the under at 45 and feel great about that play, so I'm going to go ahead and tease this one up where I cash on the key numbers of 3, 4 , 7 and the lesser important number of 8. I like this play enough to make it official so I'm doing just that with this tease of the Chiefs and under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

how do you feel about taking the chiefs at +9 in a teaser and under 51

I am on that tease in fact. Honestly I put S.D. as a 4 to 5 pt favorites tonight and considered teasing them up to +3....dunno though...think we see K.C. trying to make this one ugly and 9 pts. is a lot at home in hopefully a low scoring affair....I bought a pt on this one and have it +10 1/2 under 52 at -130. I also played a 1/2 unit on the under and a 1/4 unit parlaying under/KC ML to boot.....yeah, I got a ways to go discipline wise , really need to either get into hockey or NBA to start.

GL fellas don't know how long I will be around tonight, tired as shit and sipping some rum....wife prolly have to peel me off the couch in an hour or so .

I teased Chiefs +9.5 under 51. I am thinking we see some turnovers tonight and a close game.

Let's get it boys! After looking at the Chiefs three most recent defensive performances, they have really been quite good. With the big arrowhead advantage, I just think the +9 is a great play. I already love the under at 45 so I have no problem covering the key number of 51. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Chiefs look fired up!

[Donnie Brasco]

I teased Chiefs +9.5 under 51. I am thinking we see some turnovers tonight and a close game.

Nice call 2 to's so far!

[Donnie Brasco]

I cannot get my avatar to show in forum. The pic is on my profile page, but wont come up in avatar box in forum. Wtf, someone help please

[Donnie Brasco]

I like it so far gents

[Trivial]

Hi Everyone,

I'm going to continue following this thread and learning with everyone else, and hopefully contributing what I can to this thread, as I think this thread is special, and has some great people. I love what this has become and is the only thread that I follow actually.

Unfortunately, I don't think I'll be able to wager for a few weeks. Spent the day in the hospital after an asthma attack last night, turned into a bronchial attack.

There is no proof that it was or was not stress related.. but...

The doctor has demanded that I eliminate all levels of stress immediately until 2-3 weeks of antibiotics at a minimum are taken to reduce the inflammation. Stress will likely cause another attack.

Not too worry, I'll live - but I'm not on these plays tonight, nor will I be on a play for a while. I will be lurking though, giving opinions (more on NFL than NCAA), and hanging out.

I loved the UNDER play as I mentioned last night. I think that is something I would have done for sure, but did not tonight. I really hope SD wins, but by less than 3 points so my Season Wins (that are still active) can get another boost, and everyone tailing cashes.

I have 17 Season win wagers. SD Over 10 wins and KC Under 8 Wins are just 2 of my 17 wagers that are live, and cannot be cashed out before the season is out. Too bad, since I have items like San Fran Over 7.5 wins that likely will cash any week now.

Now that being said, I called up 3 Sportsbooks and cashed out what I could today. They are like a drug dealer. They try so hard to keep you, but I demanded cash outs at once not to even be tempted.



Please be well, and I'm still around.

Red : Too bad. Was going to bet on a Buffalo ML 5 units this weekend. I tend to over bet games I physically go to, and usually they have cashed. That, and I don't see Buffalo losing in Buffalo to the Jets.



Be well everyone, and Happy Halloween.

Trivial.

PS - If anyone is interested, I will post my Season wins selection. I unfortunately had items like Vikings Over 7 wins and others that are nearly impossible now to cash.

[Love The Action]

Hi Everyone,

I'm going to continue following this thread and learning with everyone else, and hopefully contributing what I can to this thread, as I think this thread is special, and has some great people. I love what this has become and is the only thread that I follow actually.

Unfortunately, I don't think I'll be able to wager for a few weeks. Spent the day in the hospital after an asthma attack last night, turned into a bronchial attack.

There is no proof that it was or was not stress related.. but...

The doctor has demanded that I eliminate all levels of stress immediately until 2-3 weeks of antibiotics at a minimum are taken to reduce the inflammation. Stress will likely cause another attack.

Not too worry, I'll live - but I'm not on these plays tonight, nor will I be on a play for a while. I will be lurking though, giving opinions (more on NFL than NCAA), and hanging out.

I loved the UNDER play as I mentioned last night. I think that is something I would have done for sure, but did not tonight. I really hope SD wins, but by less than 3 points so my Season Wins (that are still active) can get another boost, and everyone tailing cashes.

I have 17 Season win wagers. SD Over 10 wins and KC Under 8 Wins are just 2 of my 17 wagers that are live, and cannot be cashed out before the season is out. Too bad, since I have items like San Fran Over 7.5 wins that likely will cash any week now.

Now that being said, I called up 3 Sportsbooks and cashed out what I could today. They are like a drug dealer. They try so hard to keep you, but I demanded cash outs at once not to even be tempted.



Please be well, and I'm still around.

Red : Too bad. Was going to bet on a Buffalo ML 5 units this weekend. I tend to over bet games I physically go to, and usually they have cashed. That, and I don't see Buffalo losing in Buffalo to the Jets.



Be well everyone, and Happy Halloween.

Trivial.

PS - If anyone is interested, I will post my Season wins selection. I unfortunately had items like Vikings Over 7 wins and others that are nearly impossible now to cash.

Holy shit dude...you ok? Take care Triv. Remember, this shit isn't life and death. Family, career and the real world matter most. We've had some bad beats, no doubt. But you just need to forget about them by the next morning. You can't sulk and stress over stuff. I allow myself a couple hours to be pissed and then move on. Long term buddy...that's what matters. But in reality, your wife and daughter matter most.

Be well. I wish you all the best. I hope you cash those season wagers. Good luck and Godspeed

[Donnie Brasco]

Hope all is well triv, dont be a stranger!! Just relax and things will be fine bro!

[Trivial]

Holy shit dude...you ok? Take care Triv. Remember, this shit isn't life and death. Family, career and the real world matter most. We've had some bad beats, no doubt. But you just need to forget about them by the next morning. You can't sulk and stress over stuff. I allow myself a couple hours to be pissed and then move on. Long term buddy...that's what matters. But in reality, your wife and daughter matter most.

Be well. I wish you all the best. I hope you cash those season wagers. Good luck and Godspeed

Thanks LTA. I personally do not think stress was a factor last night. I think the constant back and forth of amazing 15+ degree weather for October and then down to 2 degrees, then nice again, etc. is what did it. I also am like you. Be pissed, and move on, so I do not think it was stress. But... Just in case I am wrong (I am not a doctor), I will stay away from wagering for the benefit of my wife and daughter. You are right, they matter most which is why I am listening to the doctor and staying away from all stress. Need to have a chat with my boss tomorrow and get pulled off some projects.

Be well, and BOL. You are very well (deservingly) respected.

[Trivial]

Hope all is well triv, dont be a stranger!! Just relax and things will be fine bro!

I definitely will still be around Donnie. I love the conversation too much.

That being said, going to bed tonight now. Not having a wager tonight gives me the luxury of going to bed early in peace.

Been a long day. Peace everyone and good luck. Hope to see a final score of 17-16 SD when I wake up.