LTA's NFL PLays

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Jets (+1) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x and over (45) for 1x total of 2x(Locked)

Play #6

Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Seahawks/Cowboys over (44.5) 1x and over (45) 0.50x for total of 1.5x (Locked)

I would also take this at 45, but no higher. It's regrettable that I didn't get this at 43 or 44 earlier in the week when those numbers were available. I expect a big rebound performance by the Cowboys against a 22nd ranked Seattle defense in offensive DVOA. Although solid overall in Def EPA and WPA, Seattle's pass defense is susceptible to the big play and I expect a lot out of Dez Bryant and Miles Austin today. On the other side, I think Dallas' linebacking corps were exposed last week against the Eagles and the Seahawks will use that to their advantage. I also think Tarvaris Jackson's mobility will also lend itself to some third down conversions as Dallas aggressive defense can have a problem overpursuing mobile quarterbacks. I expect a big offensive game here from both teams scoring over three touchdowns and this one to sail over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Adding 1x to Play #5 for total of 2x on Jets/Bills over. Correct units denoted above.

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Jets (+1) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x and over (45) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)

Play #6

Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Seahawks/Cowboys over (44.5) 1x and over (45) 0.50x for total of 1.5x (Locked)

I would also take this at 45, but no higher. It's regrettable that I didn't get this at 43 or 44 earlier in the week when those numbers were available. I expect a big rebound performance by the Cowboys against a 22nd ranked Seattle defense in offensive DVOA. Although solid overall in Def EPA and WPA, Seattle's pass defense is susceptible to the big play and I expect a lot out of Dez Bryant and Miles Austin today. On the other side, I think Dallas' linebacking corps were exposed last week against the Eagles and the Seahawks will use that to their advantage. I also think Tarvaris Jackson's mobility will also lend itself to some third down conversions as Dallas aggressive defense can have a problem overpursuing mobile quarterbacks. I expect a big offensive game here from both teams scoring over three touchdowns and this one to sail over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Here is the card heading into the noon games. I ended up making the Jets/Bills over a 2x play and Seahawks/Cowboys a 1.5x play. I had actually wanted to go 2x with the Cowboys over as well, but I couldn't get it in on time because the website was working so slow. Good luck guys, let's get these early games and head into the late afternoon games with some profit!

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:10 PM

I just didn't understand the RLM on the Colts or the under in that game. My model and all post-modeling capping said the Falcons and over was the play, but the RLM was enough to keep me off. This will be interesting. 7-0 early lead for the Falcons.

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:14 PM

Wow, really impressed with the Buffalo fans. They are really loud today...must be Trivial in the crowd!

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:23 PM

Ouch...the Jets use up over 10 minutes driving the whole field, get to the Buffalo 5 yard line and Sanchez throws an interception in the end zone on 2nd and goal. That really fuks up both my Jets play but also the big 2x over. Not a good start.

**Anthonyg7** · 11-06-11, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I just didn't understand the RLM on the Colts or the under in that game. My model and all post-modeling capping said the Falcons and over was the play, but the RLM was enough to keep me off. This will be interesting. 7-0 early lead for the Falcons.

Yeah interesting RLM.. was enough for me to make a play at +7.. let's see how this plays out..

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:31 PM

That fuking Sanchez interception just killed us....

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by Anthonyg7

Yeah interesting RLM.. was enough for me to make a play at +7.. let's see how this plays out..

Good luck Tony!

**southpaw74** · 11-06-11, 01:50 PM

I hate the cowboys...2 times they have 1st and goal and they only get field goals...wtf! Theynhad 1st and goal at the fricken 1 yard line and couldnt get it in

at least they are moving the ball though

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

I hate the cowboys...2 times they have 1st and goal and they only get field goals...wtf! Theynhad 1st and goal at the fricken 1 yard line and couldnt get it in

at least they are moving the ball though

I know...unreal. I really need that one too....

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:57 PM

Edit:

No pick by Sanchez, ruled incomplete. They hit the FG for a 3-0 score.

I hope that Sanchez pick at the Bills' 5 yard line doesn't come back to hurt us. It would take a miracle for the over to hit, so we just need to hope to minimize the losses with a Jets win.

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I just didn't understand the RLM on the Colts or the under in that game. My model and all post-modeling capping said the Falcons and over was the play, but the RLM was enough to keep me off. This will be interesting. 7-0 early lead for the Falcons.

Man...21-0 Falcons. I hate when you lay off of a play because of RLM and it hits anyway.

**jonathon1995** · 11-06-11, 02:04 PM

I guess the jets over is junk, guess we will see 2nd half line

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 02:07 PM

Cowboys fumble by Dez Bryant at the Seattle 4 yard line. That's the third missed touchdown scoring opportunity by the Cowboys so far today. This game should be 21-3 right now. They are so inefficient, there is no way they can be considered a legitimate playoff contender right now. I would be very frustrated if I were a Cowboys fan.

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 02:20 PM

If you are a Jets defensive player, you have to be disgusted with Sanchez.

Red - check in buddy. What's up with you boy Sanchez. A pick on the Bills' 5 yard line and a fumbled snap? Pathetic

**jonathon1995** · 11-06-11, 02:25 PM

LTA do you play Dallas 2nd half? -7

**wquine** · 11-06-11, 02:29 PM

have the over on the cowboys game, what a frustrating game, time to switch channels... oh no, the bucs suck too... greaaat

**southpaw74** · 11-06-11, 02:29 PM

I wasn't sure if I was seeing the Alabama game or the NFL? Only field goals in both jets and cowboys games

**jonathon1995** · 11-06-11, 02:30 PM

I have Buc's +19 on a Teaser, lets just say it may be in trouble.

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 02:32 PM

What happened in that 49'ers game. There were 6 points with 2 minutes left to go in the half and next thing you know it's 13-3 at the half...wtf

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by jonathon1995

LTA do you play Dallas 2nd half? -7

I rarely make 2h plays. GL

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by southpaw74

I wasn't sure if I was seeing the Alabama game or the NFL? Only field goals in both jets and cowboys games

Cowboys had over 330 yards of total offense in the first half, but only 6 points. Pathetic

**Ab34** · 11-06-11, 02:39 PM

59 yard fg

**Ab34** · 11-06-11, 02:41 PM

LTA time to work on these 4 oclock games i really like the packers under 52

**jonathon1995** · 11-06-11, 02:41 PM

I dont unless a favored team is way behind at halftime, last week I did NO and they didnt cover but Balt did. I played Miami ML for a cheap parlay with LSU ML last night. I made 7 plays I wouldnt have made because of you and hit 5 of them yesterday.

**Donnie Brasco** · 11-06-11, 03:04 PM

When will vegas catch up with these lines? The public faves are killing it again! I dont understand!?!?!

**Krazymojo** · 11-06-11, 03:08 PM

theres still hope in the Jets/Bills Over

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by Ab34

LTA time to work on these 4 oclock games i really like the packers under 52

I agree about the Packers under. I played the under at 53 for 1x right when it opened, before it was taken down for the MNF game. It subsequently reopened at 52 and has been bet down to 50.5 where it currently sits. Where do you see 52?

I am also playing Tennessee and a couple other leans I am working on now. Back in few.

**SimonSayz** · 11-06-11, 03:30 PM

Is there still value with the gb total at 50.5 for the under?

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 03:38 PM

Another missed td opportunity by the Cowboys...omg

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by SimonSayz

Is there still value with the gb total at 50.5 for the under?

I would not bet it below 51. If you really like, buy the hook. I normally wouldn't recommend buying the hook on totals, but 51 is the fourth most important key total and hits 3.7% of the time. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it is. Since 2000, out of almost 3,000 games, 51 is the most frequent final behind 41, 37 and 44. Therefore, I think it's pretty important to get 51.

**georgekobe8** · 11-06-11, 03:50 PM

LTA I took rams +1 for a small play. With kolb out and wells not 100% i think its a good play. For conversation sake, how do you feel about it?

**georgekobe8** · 11-06-11, 03:56 PM

jets bills over still in play

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by georgekobe8

LTA I took rams +1 for a small play. With kolb out and wells not 100% i think its a good play. For conversation sake, how do you feel about it?

I would like it more at +3, but I wish you luck. Otherwise, I have no real opinion in that game because their are too many unknown variables with replacement players, etc. Good luck, hope you cash

**Love The Action** · 11-06-11, 04:05 PM

Tough losses with the Jets over and Cowboys over.

That fuking Sanchez interception on the opening drive killed us. We would have cashed the 1x over at 43.5 and pushed the 1x at 45 had they punched it on the first drive when they had 1st and goal from Buffalo 5 yard line and Sanchez threw a pick.

In the Cowboys game, they blew 4 or 5 scoring opportunities. They should have easily scored about 28-35 points on their own.

Onto the afternoon games. Let's go 2-0 for a profitable day.