LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

I don't know much about football and I'm wagering on NFL using others' plays, so I've been teasing some of your totals, LTA, and have been making some nice coin, thus I need to thank you for your work, plays, insight and attitude

I have to say though you are suffering the sickest beats ever, one after another, it's like a fukking bad beat piledriver, man. Honestly, with just a few games here and there going a bit less crazy, you would have been COMFORTABLY in the black in both college and pro football. The law of averages says you're going to kill it in the second half of the football season ... right? I wish you the best of luck, you really deserve it.

Thanks..the bad beats have been brutal and consistent. Variance is actually on our side so I hope we start getting some breaks soon. NCAAF went well and we got some breaks, but yesterday felt like meatgrinder, one brutal beat after the other, topped off by the one point loss on the pit under.

Nothing we can do about it now though. Just need to stay consistent, follow my process and the breaks should even out.

I really miss the daily action of the NBA though. This lockout is really hurting my BR. I cant believe the players won't accept a 51/49 profit share. What in the world makes them think they deserve more than 51% when the owners have all financial risk while the players sit back and collect their checks. Makes me sick, and if I was just a fan instead of needing the nba for an investment market, the greed of the players would have lost me already and I would be done with those clowns. The nba players make me sick.

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the hard work LTA, with your discipled approach you're bound to hit a winning streak soon. Just unbelievable how these games have gone lately. lol I had Steelers -3.5 parlayed with the under.

Thanks...sorry about your steelers beat....lets hope we can start the week with a win on the bears under. I'm hoping the line gets back up to 48 and then drops again so I can add a unit and still beat the closer.

Good luck

[Trivial]

Glad you had a good time Triv, too bad the game wasn't more exciting. Shaping up to be an interesting dog fight in the division. I got no beef with the Bills, except when we go head to head, down with the Pats!

Fair enough. Likewise. LOL.

[Trivial]

Wow...went to bed at halftime last night and it was 9-6 balty.....woke up today and see it ended 23-20. Four td's in the second half to burn my under by 1 point. Just brutal. I dont even want to know what happened because I'm sure it was an even worse beat than the score indicated. What a horrible way to start the workweek. Wish I would have just seen it last night so I could be over it already. Now this is going to piss me off for a couple hours. Fuk...

It was 20-16 for Pit. Ravens had just over 2 mins, no timeouts. Steelers rolled over defensively and handed Baltimore a win on a silver platter with 14 seconds left in the game.

[upscope]

Can anybody loan Upscope some $$....lol

I've never been this excited for college hoops to start in my life.....FUKKKKKKKKKKK the NFL

[upscope]

It was 20-16 for Pit. Ravens had just over 2 mins, no timeouts. Steelers rolled over defensively and handed Baltimore a win on a silver platter with 14 seconds left in the game.

It was actually worse than that IMO....Ravens had to go 90 yrds in 2:20 w/ NO TIMEOUTS!!! The Pitt D let them slice down the field like it was a 30 point game instead of a 4 point game....They did w/ 8 sec to spare....

The key play was on 2nd & 8 from the Balt 37 w/ 42 seconds to play Flacco flung one out to Rice in the flat & Pitt defenders had him buried but he dropped the pass that was right in his hands. If he makes that catch they gain maybe 1 or 2 yrds & take 15-20 seconds to get set making it 3rd & 7 w/ 25 seconds to play....This scenario would have been tough to overcome for Baltimore IMO....

Oh well....on to Mon night!!

[Donnie Brasco]

Total looks very sharp tonight, i have it at 46. Two numbers that intrigue me however are chicago +9, and philly tt under 27.5. I think we are looking at a 24-20 kind of affair. Thoughts????

[Moneyliner7]

With all of these close totals im going small on bears +8.. Good luck..

[upscope]

Total looks very sharp tonight, i have it at 46. Two numbers that intrigue me however are chicago +9, and philly tt under 27.5. I think we are looking at a 24-20 kind of affair. Thoughts????

I have Philly @ 28 which is a big hook w/ this bet

[Love The Action]

Total looks very sharp tonight, i have it at 46. Two numbers that intrigue me however are chicago +9, and philly tt under 27.5. I think we are looking at a 24-20 kind of affair. Thoughts????

Im sticking with my play on the under at 48. GL

[Donnie Brasco]

Im sticking with my play on the under at 48. GL

I agree at 48, can only get 47

[BigDan]

total scares me as i can make a decent case for either way...

Bears playing only their 3rd true road gm and in case anyone has forgot their o-line is even worse when they go into hostile environments (which london was certainly not), sure Forte will get his but call me crazy i dont believe a team that 50% of their offense goes thru one man can keep pace with a team like phi. Bears safties have played like deep fried shit all season, not something i would want when betting against philly. im sure you will hear about Chi success against vick but when was the last time phi was so committed to the run? Bears will either respect Shady making life easier on Vick or Shady will destroy them as their run d hasnt been much better than the eagles. Dont think phi is the kind of team you wanna see off a bye as that some speed you just cant prepare for. Phi d-line will be in Cutlers grill all night and when they are not he will still be hard pressed to find a wr not being blanketed...phi jumps out to a early lead here and it is lights out...

Dont let the points full you into backing the Bears as between these two teams 14 gms this season the spread has been a factor all of one time.

30-17 eagles as they continue their climb back to contenders...cant get that 48 you did LTA so

Phi-8 2x for me....GL everyone

[upscope]

Im sticking with my play on the under at 48. GL

Total just dropped to 47

[Redscot]

total scares me as i can make a decent case for either way...

Bears playing only their 3rd true road gm and in case anyone has forgot their o-line is even worse when they go into hostile environments (which london was certainly not), sure Forte will get his but call me crazy i dont believe a team that 50% of their offense goes thru one man can keep pace with a team like phi. Bears safties have played like deep fried shit all season, not something i would want when betting against philly. im sure you will hear about Chi success against vick but when was the last time phi was so committed to the run? Bears will either respect Shady making life easier on Vick or Shady will destroy them as their run d hasnt been much better than the eagles. Dont think phi is the kind of team you wanna see off a bye as that some speed you just cant prepare for. Phi d-line will be in Cutlers grill all night and when they are not he will still be hard pressed to find a wr not being blanketed...phi jumps out to a early lead here and it is lights out...

Dont let the points full you into backing the Bears as between these two teams 14 gms this season the spread has been a factor all of one time.

30-17 eagles as they continue their climb back to contenders...cant get that 48 you did LTA so

Phi-8 2x for me....GL everyone

Nice. I feel much the same way. Have Philly at -2 in 2nd part of a tease, and am tempted on jumping them as well -8.

[Love The Action]

Total just dropped to 47

I bet that game last monday at 48. I think it dropped to 47 middle of last week. I would like to see it go below 47...we'll see. Good luck up

Oh btw, that post you made about the ucf student cheering for his team last week was one of the funniest things I have read on here in awhile...thanks for the laugh

[BigDan]

Nice. I feel much the same way. Have Philly at -2 in 2nd part of a tease, and am tempted on jumping them as well -8.

this is what gets me Red...

Bears at Saints, 13 points.....Bears at Det 13 points...no one is mistaking either of these teams as great run stuffing teams, yet in chi only 2 road gms this is what they have managed.. Sure those are both domes but im gonna go out on a limb and say Bears o-line will struggle just as mightily in what will be their 3rd hostile crowd of the season..

[Love The Action]

I tend to agree that the bears get rolled tonight. Still, -8 is a lot. The only thing that scares me about the total is that earl bennett is back tonight and he is cutlers third down safety blanket. He might really help the bears extend drives from the slot. However, I dont see the bears having much offensive success throwing the ball which is why I like the under. Dont be surprised to see a lot of forte all night. I see philly scoring 24 & the bears in that 10-17 point range.

[Redscot]

I tend to agree that the bears get rolled tonight. Still, -8 is a lot. The only thing that scares me about the total is that earl bennett is back tonight and he is cutlers third down safety blanket. He might really help the bears extend drives from the slot. However, I dont see the bears having much offensive success throwing the ball which is why I like the under. Dont be surprised to see a lot of forte all night. I see philly scoring 24 & the bears in that 10-17 point range.

Good point about the safety valve, especially in a hostile environment having that guy you can trust will be in his route is huge. I agree with your score assessment here as well LTA, just worried that if the eagles jump out early it could get ugly and force the Bears into the air more ending in a blowout.

BTW, You doing NCAA hoops this year? BigD how about you, where will you be chiming in with your NCAA hoops insight?

[upscope]

I bet that game last monday at 48. I think it dropped to 47 middle of last week. I would like to see it go below 47...we'll see. Good luck up

Oh btw, that post you made about the ucf student cheering for his team last week was one of the funniest things I have read on here in awhile...thanks for the laugh

Yea, I could only get 47.5 earlier in the week so I locked it in before it went lower. Then it went back to 48 where it was until it dropped to 47 about an hour ago.
I really should have access to more books but I'm just dabbling around right now & don't really trust my $$ spread out over multiple books w/ the current state of the business....oh well.

Yea that entire UCF thread was hilarious.....especially since we got the last laugh being on the other side (winner).
GL tonight pal....

[BigDan]

BTW, You doing NCAA hoops this year? BigD how about you, where will you be chiming in with your NCAA hoops insight?

i will more than likely do a nccca hoops thread but doubt i start it till after the holidays. i play a Ton of gms and these non-conf early gms are really volatile for me and while i do bet the hell out of them ive been known to go 11-0 one day and 0-11 the next and i really dont want anyone that knows my history with college hoops having to deal with that ....ill prob weigh in here and there with a few plays i like until Jan then i will start a thread as jan/feb thru the conf tourneys is when i tend to get really consistent results..

kinda sad to see Kenpom charging this year but hell it only 20 bucks and his site is a must for me anyway..

[upscope]

kinda sad to see Kenpom charging this year but hell it only 20 bucks and his site is a must for me anyway..

Who dat??

[BigDan]

Who dat??

Google it brother....by far the one of the best sites to be looking at when wagering college hoops. not so much for his score predictions (he isnt a tout). Dude is a genius when it comes to the stats he has for college hoops..absolutely invaluable information...it goes against everything i believe paying for anything to cap with but id be lying if his site isnt one of the reasons ive never had a losing season with col hoops, so i will bite the bullet on this one, seeing how it only $20 and that i wouldnt be the same w/o it, i guess it really a steal since ive been using it for free for the last 4 years...

[upscope]

Google it brother....by far the one of the best sites to be looking at when wagering college hoops. not so much for his score predictions (he isnt a tout). Dude is a genius when it comes to the stats he has for college hoops..absolutely invaluable information...it goes against everything i believe paying for anything to cap with but id be lying if his site isnt one of the reasons ive never had a losing season with col hoops, so i will bite the bullet on this one, seeing how it only $20 and that i wouldnt be the same w/o it, i guess it really a steal since ive been using it for free for the last 4 years...

Thanx bro....I'll look into it for sure.
I had a similar situation back in early/mid 2000's. I had courtside season tickets to Pepperdine basketball & regularly posted on a Pepperdine basketball forum. A guy named Edward (RAS) also posted there & we were cyber friends.
I unexpectedly had to move from SoCal to Vegas & offered UP the tickets to the forum. Edward inquired about them & asked how much. I respected his knowledge & cyber friendship so I gave them to him free of charge. At the time I had no clue what line of work he was in. He later asked me If I bet sports & I said sure. He then sent me his RAS VIP package free of charge for the next 4 seasons. Needless to say, if you know anything about RAS it was an unknowingly at the time savvy move on my part not charging him for those tickets.

[BigDan]

no doubt. RAS prob the one tout that is worth the money...still wouldnt pay a tout, prob more based off my own ego than anything else

this really got nothing to do with picks with Kenpom, all about the stats he compiles.. he does list score projections for every gm, i honestly couldnt tell you even how accurate they are as i rarely even look at them.

[alamo]

Will you have a college hoops thread LTA ?

[Love The Action]

Will you have a college hoops thread LTA ?

I will post spot plays in cbb, but I have historically concentrated on nba during that time of the year. I dont have a model for cbb, so I only cap cbb in select spots and will not have a year long thread.

I am hoping the rank and file players force a vote on the 50/50 offer and this deal gets done. There is a big split in the nbapa which wants to accept this deal and is pissed that they have not had the opportunity to vote.

Let's keep our fingers crossed so we can make that nba money

[Love The Action]

Yea, I could only get 47.5 earlier in the week so I locked it in before it went lower. Then it went back to 48 where it was until it dropped to 47 about an hour ago.
I really should have acTtcess to more books but I'm just dabbling around right now & don't really trust my $$ spread out over multiple books w/ the current state of the business....oh well.

Yea that entire UCF thread was hilarious.....especially since we got the last laugh being on the other side (winner).
GL tonight pal....

I would never trust my money offshore. You need to find a credible local book

[GChild]

Magic Johnson said players are being dumb for today's market and 50/50 should be the agreement!! 20 years ago he got HIV my over under would of been under 5 years back then!

G/L tonight

[GoggsViggs]

48 looks good bro. I have the eagles 27 bears 17

[BigDan]

hijacked this from another forum, thought it was interesting..

After playing in London, all of them ( 10 teams ) got into a bye week. 7 of the 10 teams stayed at home for the next game . The 3 teams that travel on the road for the next game are :

1. NO + 1.5 @ ATL ( ATL won the game 34-20 )
2. TB +8.5 or + 9 @ NO ( NO won 27-16 yesterday )
3. CHI + 8 or + 9 tonight @ PHI.


just another reason to feel ok about a play i already made

[Love The Action]

Might add another unit or half unit to the under at 48. I can get it right now at my square book. I am worried about Earl Bennett's return though. He is a big part of the Chi town offense on third down...

[KuLaPhU]

Don't worry about it.. Stay strong! We've got royal flush in hand already. Good luck to us homie.. Got under 47.5 what do u think?

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)LOSS

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x and under (51) 1x for total for 2x (Locked)LOSS

Play #4

Jets (+1) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #5

Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x and over (45) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)LOSS

Play #6

Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)LOSS

Play #7

49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)WINNER

West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Seahawks/Cowboys over (44.5) 1x and over (45) 0.50x for total of 1.5x (Locked)LOSS

I would also take this at 45, but no higher. It's regrettable that I didn't get this at 43 or 44 earlier in the week when those numbers were available. I expect a big rebound performance by the Cowboys against a 22nd ranked Seattle defense in offensive DVOA. Although solid overall in Def EPA and WPA, Seattle's pass defense is susceptible to the big play and I expect a lot out of Dez Bryant and Miles Austin today. On the other side, I think Dallas' linebacking corps were exposed last week against the Eagles and the Seahawks will use that to their advantage. I also think Tarvaris Jackson's mobility will also lend itself to some third down conversions as Dallas aggressive defense can have a problem overpursuing mobile quarterbacks. I expect a big offensive game here from both teams scoring over three touchdowns and this one to sail over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Baltimore/Pittsburgh under (42) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I would have really like to get some coverage on the key number of 43, but it just never materialized other than one minute at the Pinny open. Even so Pinny is currently at 41.5 -105 and MBook is juicing the under at 41.5, so I'm happy with the 42. Pittsburgh has really improved those defensive rankings from earlier in the year and really established themselves last week against NE. They really impressed me defending the pass, which had been their weakness. If you look at Def EPA, Def WPA, EPA/p, Def Rush EPA, Def Pass EPA, Def Rush WPA, Def Pass WPA, Def SR%, Def Pass SR% and Def Pass SR%, both the Steelers and Baltimore are top 10 with Baltimore top 5 pretty much across the board. Both teams have top 3 scoring defenses with solid time of possession numbers. I don't see Baltimore giving up several special teams touchdowns today, like they have frequently this year -- it's time to get that under control. Even though the Steelers have been running a very efficient offense in the last few weeks, they have not faced a defense like this since the first game of the year when Balty limited Pit to 7 points. I don't see Balty scoring 35 of Pit this game with all of their defensive improvements. I have this one set at 39.5, so we're getting 2.5 points of value here. The line has started to move to 41.5 at 5D now as well, so I agree with late money and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Added 0.50x for total of 1.5x on Bears/Eagles under (48). Correct units denoted above.

I'll take a shot here on Monday after some tough losses yesterday. I really like this play with the Bears on the road, playing better defense of late and without an ability to protect Cutler on offense. Pinny is starting to juice the under big time and I see this one as a 24-17 type game. I'm going to roll with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 9

Play #1

Bears/Eagles under (48) 1.5x (Locked)

I'll take a shot here on Monday after some tough losses yesterday. I really like this play with the Bears on the road, playing better defense of late and without an ability to protect Cutler on offense. Pinny is starting to juice the under big time and I see this one as a 24-17 type game. I'm going to roll with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #2

Titans (-2.5) 1x (Locked)LOSS

Play #3

Packers/Chargers under (53) 1x and under (51) 1x for total for 2x (Locked)LOSS

Play #4

Jets (+1) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #5

Jets/Bills over (43.5) 1x and over (45) 1x for total of 2x(Locked)LOSS

Play #6

Giants/Patriots over (52) 1x (Locked)LOSS

Play #7

49'ers/Redskins under (37.5) 1x (Locked)WINNER

West coast team playing an early game on the East Coast can tend to lend itself to a sleepy performance by the West Coast team. We have two top 10 defensive teams in DVOA defensive efficiency, while the offenses are bottom third of the league in the same offensive advanced category. We are covering on of the most important key numbers in football at 37 and as long as we don't see any special teams or defensive td's, this one should stay under the posted total after opening at 39 and seeing immediate under action. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Seahawks/Cowboys over (44.5) 1x and over (45) 0.50x for total of 1.5x (Locked)LOSS

I would also take this at 45, but no higher. It's regrettable that I didn't get this at 43 or 44 earlier in the week when those numbers were available. I expect a big rebound performance by the Cowboys against a 22nd ranked Seattle defense in offensive DVOA. Although solid overall in Def EPA and WPA, Seattle's pass defense is susceptible to the big play and I expect a lot out of Dez Bryant and Miles Austin today. On the other side, I think Dallas' linebacking corps were exposed last week against the Eagles and the Seahawks will use that to their advantage. I also think Tarvaris Jackson's mobility will also lend itself to some third down conversions as Dallas aggressive defense can have a problem overpursuing mobile quarterbacks. I expect a big offensive game here from both teams scoring over three touchdowns and this one to sail over the posted total. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Baltimore/Pittsburgh under (42) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I would have really like to get some coverage on the key number of 43, but it just never materialized other than one minute at the Pinny open. Even so Pinny is currently at 41.5 -105 and MBook is juicing the under at 41.5, so I'm happy with the 42. Pittsburgh has really improved those defensive rankings from earlier in the year and really established themselves last week against NE. They really impressed me defending the pass, which had been their weakness. If you look at Def EPA, Def WPA, EPA/p, Def Rush EPA, Def Pass EPA, Def Rush WPA, Def Pass WPA, Def SR%, Def Pass SR% and Def Pass SR%, both the Steelers and Baltimore are top 10 with Baltimore top 5 pretty much across the board. Both teams have top 3 scoring defenses with solid time of possession numbers. I don't see Baltimore giving up several special teams touchdowns today, like they have frequently this year -- it's time to get that under control. Even though the Steelers have been running a very efficient offense in the last few weeks, they have not faced a defense like this since the first game of the year when Balty limited Pit to 7 points. I don't see Balty scoring 35 of Pit this game with all of their defensive improvements. I have this one set at 39.5, so we're getting 2.5 points of value here. The line has started to move to 41.5 at 5D now as well, so I agree with late money and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Here's the final card for Week 9...hopefully we can neutralize some of the losses with a nice win tonight. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Don't worry about it.. Stay strong! We've got royal flush in hand already. Good luck to us homie.. Got under 47.5 what do u think?

I think you're fine with 47.5, but it's always nice to get coverage on the key number of 48 if you can find it. Look at yesterday, I felt good with 42 on the Steelers under, but it ended on the key number of 43 and we lost by one point. That's how important key numbers are in NCAAF and NFL. You have to be cognizant of them at all times. However, I think even 47 cashes. I have this one set at 44. Good luck